Why Would the Twins Pay Anyone but Carlos Correa?

[Ted Schwerzler]

The Minnesota Twins enter the offseason prior to 2023 with a massive question mark at shortstop. Carlos Correa is going to opt out of his three-year deal, as was the expectation from the moment he signed it. Why would the club pay big for anyone but him?

Image courtesy of Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports

Last offseason, as spring training was already underway, Derek Falvey and Thad Levine found themselves with an opportunity to land superstar Carlos Correa. With the New York Yankees willing to take on Josh Donaldson’s albatross of a contract, the Twins had a hole and money to spend. No longer was this club going to start Isiah Kiner-Falefa at shortstop, and Correa remained on the market.

Overlord, err agent Scott Boras, was angling for his client to land the highest average annual value for a Major League infielder. Guaranteeing Correa $100,000 more than Los Angeles Angels third basemen Anthony Rendon, Minnesota accomplished that. The contract was a three-year pact for $105.3 million, but each of the additional years were simply player options. Correa gave himself an opportunity to get paid should he not perform, but his goal has always remained the same, a long-term, big-dollar deal.

Prior to the 2021 season, former Cleveland Guardians shortstop Francisco Lindor inked a 10-year, $341 million extension with the New York Mets. Yes, Steve Cohen is a filthy rich owner, but there’s little argument that the shortstop wasn’t worth it. Correa checks in at roughly the same age, and while his health has been a bit more questionable, he’s been the same or better on the field. Looking for his payday this winter, that’s probably the number he’ll target to get above.

If you need another comparable when considering Correa, the Texas Rangers also entered the land of crazy spending when they inked former Los Angeles Dodgers shortstop Corey Seager to a ten-year, $325 million deal this winter. That was consummate alongside Marcus Semien’s seven-year, $175 million pact they agree to following a third-place finish in the American League MVP voting.

What it boils down to, is that Carlos Correa is going to get paid.

Where does this leave the Twins? Probably in no man’s land. I’ve been told from sources that Minnesota will make an offer somewhere in the upper-$200 millions. Whatever that means remains up for discussion, but it’s a far cry from where both Seager and Semien ended up last season. It’s also well below what Lindor got from the Mets.

This offseason, both Trea Turner and Dansby Swanson will be available on the open market alongside Correa. I’m not sure you can make an argument that the latter is better than the Twins shortstop, and the former has his warts too. Regardless, Minnesota would seem silly to pay another top shortstop a similar amount of money when one they already know is available.

If Falvey and Levine want to create long-term continuity at one of the most impactful positions on the diamond, why would they not stick with the guy they already know? Correa’s 4.4 fWAR was the third highest of his career, and that was achieved despite acclimating to a new club and missing time following a hit by pitch.

Of course, Correa has said all of the right things on his own. He loves Minnesota, and his wife does as well. He’s suggested he would be open to staying here, but that decision gets substantially more clouded should the returning employer come up with something like $70 million short of other suitors.

At the end of the day it’s as simple as this; how difficult do the Twins want to make the decision? If the offer isn’t competitive, they only have themselves to blame. Either you’re entirely betting on Royce Lewis, Austin Martin, Brooks Lee, and your own youth, or you want to lock up a needed position for the next decade and do what’s necessary to make that happen.

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[twinfan]

Correa would be a great keep beyond his baseball skills because of what he adds to the youngsters and the clubhouse. But Turner is just as good overall so, if we can't keep Correa, we need to go get Turner. I'm not sold on Swanson being their equal. 

[Mark G]

All I know is that JP and Falvine know the numbers they need to begin with, and very likely know the numbers they need to end with to get it done.  I will withhold judgment for now, but I can't help but think they will come in, as Ted pointed out, something short of that, knowing the result, and then claim they tried their best, but the man just wanted too much money.  In an auction, you don't get brownie points by putting in a bid and then hoping no one goes higher; you get the points for winning the bid even if someone does.  Time will tell.............stay tuned.  

[ScottMNTWINSFAN]

I completely agree.

We have all watched this team build in the past year with a mix of young and seasoned veterans. Twins fans deserve Carlos Correa for all the reasons you list. If we are actually going to build for the future, why not with a veteran leader who loves it here, who has already proven his worth. Let's offer him full value, and show Twins fans that in addition to "risking" that contract for Byron Buxton, that we are building with this very sure bat, glove, and emotional Leader.

Gone are the days of Puckett, Hrbek, Gaetti taking us forward with not only talent, but grit. Correa represents something that we are missing in most of the rest of the team: Post Season SUCCESS.

It seems uncanny to me that this is a question mark. Let's pay him, move forward with a much improved team.

My 2 cents.

Scott in Northern MN

[Peter]

Need to get correa back on twins-if ge lives it here why did he leave. Who can we get better? Lewis/lee aren’t ready yet, twins need to get they act together! 

[Whitey333]

The Correa saga is getting old   we knew he was going to opt out when he signed his deal.  We should have realized at that point that we would all be used by Carlos.  His only reason to be here was to manipulate everyone for his own benefit.  It's been astounding how we bought into his line of how he loves Minnesota and the Twins.  How self serving can you get?  How gullable us fans are.  We are supposed to feel grateful just for his presence.  He's a good shortstop who is only looking out for himself yet we fell for him hook, line, and sinker.  To the same people that hope the Twins pay him a market value contract of over 300 million:. You will be amongst the first to complain when the Twins say they don't have any more payroll flexibility.  Could we go from one "albatross" contract to another?  Time will tell.

[Major League Ready]

What the article does not cover is the examples of teams in similar markets that have been successful signing a mega contract with a similar player.  The reality is that it never happens.  In other words, none of the GMs of teams with similar revenue have believed signing such a player was in the best interest of the team.  Are they all wrong?

We would be a better team next year with him but we be a better team in 24 and for several years thereafter with Lewis or Lee at SS and $35M invested in pitching?

[Squirrel]

21 minutes ago, Whitey333 said:

The Correa saga is getting old   we knew he was going to opt out when he signed his deal.  We should have realized at that point that we would all be used by Carlos.  His only reason to be here was to manipulate everyone for his own benefit.  It's been astounding how we bought into his line of how he loves Minnesota and the Twins.  How self serving can you get?  How gullable us fans are.  We are supposed to feel grateful just for his presence.  He's a good shortstop who is only looking out for himself yet we fell for him hook, line, and sinker.  To the same people that hope the Twins pay him a market value contract of over 300 million:. You will be amongst the first to complain when the Twins say they don't have any more payroll flexibility.  Could we go from one "albatross" contract to another?  Time will tell.

First off, one albatross contract to another? Are you talking about the one year deal? A one-year deal is not an albatross contract. And it didn't deter us from doing anything, getting anyone else. That's all on the FO and their inactivity before the Correa signing. And, we signed Correa very late in the game. He wasn't the plan, it just 'dropped' in our laps. This time around, I want them to truly go for it. This is a business. I'm not sure where you are getting 'we are supposed to feel grateful' ... I mean, what? We have the flexibility, right now. This is the time to go for it. Right now.

[Squirrel]

14 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

What the article does not cover is the examples of teams in similar markets that have been successful signing a mega contract with a similar player.  The reality is that it never happens.  In other words, none of the GMs of teams with similar revenue have believed signing such a player was in the best interest of the team.  Are they all wrong?

We would be a better team next year with him but we be a better team in 24 and for several years thereafter with Lewis or Lee at SS and $35M invested in pitching?

I'd say Mauer was a mega-contract. And, at the time, Kirby was. This team has done that, just rarely. It's time. We have the flexibility, we should get it done.

[Trov]

I agree they should not go after a different SS, and if they plan to spend big on anyone it should be CC.  However, I would not want any contract longer than 5 years, and I doubt that gets it done for him.  I think minimum he will be seeking 8 years, and most likely will get that, but I think he is seeking 10 years.  I am worried after 4 or 5 years he will drop off a bit, I could be wrong, but history shows most SS stop playing there in early 30's. His offense is above average for SS, but not for 3b, and if he drops off on that side of ball too, then he will be just a huge overpaid guy. 

[TwinsAce]

5 minutes ago, Squirrel said:

First off, one albatross contract to another? Are you talking about the one year deal? A one-year deal is not an albatross contract. And it didn't deter us from doing anything, getting anyone else. That's all on the FO. And, we signed Correa very late in the game. He wasn't the plan, it just 'dropped' in our laps. This time around, I want them to truly go for it. This is a business. I'm not sure where you are getting 'we are supposed to feel grateful' ... I mean, what? We have the flexibility, right now. This is the time to go for it. Right now.

Agreed - I am hoping they go for it. 
Maybe the albatross contract was in reference to Donaldson?

[Karbo]

I think he would go for a guaranteed 8 years at 35 mil a year, and add on a couple of club option years. The Twins aren't giving long term deals to pitchers instead opting for developing them on their own (which seems like a good idea on paper at least). That leaves enough payroll to invest in a high quality player and person.

[Whitey333]

The albatross contract I was referring to wasn't Correas one year deal, although twins didn't do much afterward to build a competitive team around him.  I was referring to the albatross contract of Donaldson that was mentioned in the article.  The article referred to the Donaldson contract as an Albatross due greatly to the dollars involved.  Yet the team spent $10 million more for a very good shortstop with nothing more.  If the FO had no intention of adding more than Correa then it was a waste of money.  I like Correa.  I hope he stays for reasonable monies.  But the witching will really start when we have a great shortstop getting 25% of salary with just a .500 team around him.  I just think he is too expensive for the Twins.

[beckmt]

for those of you who forget, this is the last year for Gray, Mahle, and Maeda (if I am correct).  That is a big hole to fill.  We also will probably need to replace Kepler (that could be done now) and Polonco (though I believe we have a 2024 contract or option there).  This is a lot of holes to fill.  You have a decision to make, either spend the money on Correra or someone like him, or after this year or being this year use Lewis, Lee, Martin at SS and use the money to rebuild the pitching staff.  If nothing else Cleveland has taught us pitching wins.  I would rather pay the pitchers starting this year and have the bridge with the good young players to held balance the teams budget.  

Only reason for paying Correra and his ilk, is I believe the Twins TV contract is up in the next couple of years and we should get a fair amount more money out of that.  

[Reptevia]

It’s essentially a lottery ticket. Twin’s “Win” if Correa sticks at short for 3/4 of the contract, doesn’t regress due to age, doesn’t get hurt etc. Any of those thing go wrong, and you have an overpaid 3b. The albatross people are referencing is Mauer. Remember him?  The most overpaid 1b in the league?  If buying lottery tickets is the only small market strategy, better off gambling on young guys like Miranda and Ryan etc. Lock them up for 8-10 years now when it’s affordable. 

[chpettit19]

12 minutes ago, Whitey333 said:

The albatross contract I was referring to wasn't Correas one year deal, although twins didn't do much afterward to build a competitive team around him.  I was referring to the albatross contract of Donaldson that was mentioned in the article.  The article referred to the Donaldson contract as an Albatross due greatly to the dollars involved.  Yet the team spent $10 million more for a very good shortstop with nothing more.  If the FO had no intention of adding more than Correa then it was a waste of money.  I like Correa.  I hope he stays for reasonable monies.  But the witching will really start when we have a great shortstop getting 25% of salary with just a .500 team around him.  I just think he is too expensive for the Twins.

I think the main problem with your premise is that the Twins should be building around Correa by bringing in more outside options. The core of Twins, and every team's, talent needs to be developed through the system and paid on pre-arb and arb deals that are well below market. If the Twins don't develop cheap talent it doesn't matter who they try to bring in from the outside because no team can win by simply buying free agents. It's not how the Dodgers or Yankees win either. It's just not possible. So since they're currently in the middle of graduating a lot of prospects now is the time to splurge on an individual huge contract like Correa's since the rest of the team will be on well below market deals.

[mac098]

34 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

What the article does not cover is the examples of teams in similar markets that have been successful signing a mega contract with a similar player.  The reality is that it never happens.  In other words, none of the GMs of teams with similar revenue have believed signing such a player was in the best interest of the team.  Are they all wrong?

We would be a better team next year with him but we be a better team in 24 and for several years thereafter with Lewis or Lee at SS and $35M invested in pitching?

So the Mets giving Lindor that large contract is worthless? Or the Braves locking Acuna up for a team friendly contract hasn't paid off? What about Ozzie Albies? His team friendly contract hasn't paid off? The Braves took home the only hardware that matters last season. There are a lot of players who have signed mega-contracts that are now showing the fruits of their labor. Harper? The Phils took down the defending WS champs and are onto the NLCS. Kershaw back in the day. Machado. Yes, we have seen it backfire on teams like the Angels who have Trout and Rendon. But there is more to it than that. But what it ultimately comes down is this: If an organization is willing to spend the money on a play to sign the mega-contract, it show that they want to win. NOT that they just want to fill the seats in the stadium. It tells the fans, "Hey, we hear you. We want you to be proud to call yourself a fan of our team. So we decided to open the checkbook and sign (Insert superstar's name) because we want to bring some post-season hardware to our proud city." 

Honestly, it does come down how the fans support the team and how the owners/FO are willing to spend to be successful. Now we don't have be the Padres and gut our entire pipeline of young talent to make trades for superstars, but we can trade off some talent that may be held back because we already have a superstar in that position. 

[Doctor Gast]

I believe Turner & Swanson will return to their previous teams (LAD & ATL), the others with options will also stay home. If they want Correa they need to go out & get him not just wait around to see if anyone will land him if not, then low ball him. And if we don't get him we'll be standing around sucking our thumb, hoping to scape up a SS some where or maybe they think we'll get lucky again.

If we can't sign him right away, then we go right into plan B. 

[gman]

The Astros didn't think he was worth it and they are more World Series prepped than the Twins. Turns out they had a shortstop who was good enough to at least help them to the Al division series. If the Twins definitely proved to have a complete team ready to compete for a World Series title, I might consider signing Correa to a large contract. But remember he also said "The reason I don't steal bases anymore is that I am trying to save my legs to last a couple more years at shortstop." The only stolen base attempt i saw him make this year and he came up at second kind of gimpy as he hobbled back to the dugout. Could have just been a coincidence.

[strumdatjag]

Not only would Correa require a huge long-term contract but he would block other players the Twins will soon have ready at Shortstop: Lewis, Lee and Martin (currently excelling in the AFL).   Only one of those three has to stick at Shortstop to make it a lousy idea to give an expensive, long term deal to Carlos “Shops at Dior” Correa.  Moreover, a recession is likely, leading to a likelihood of even lower attendance than last year.   Keep the powder dry and use it when there is an opportunity.  Don’t get into bidding wars at this time. 

[srlarson]

would be a huge mistake to lock up Correa to a long term (more than 5 years).....if he wants a shorter higher Ave....I'm ok with that....this team cannot handcuff itself with these long term deals....so few work out.....

Where is he going to get the $'s which big money teams need a SS?  Don't bid against yourself.....

Let him walk and spend the dollars on the mound......

 

 

[Steve Lein]

If they don't make the big splash signing with Correa this year with all the flexibility they have, they are never going to.

This is the best situation I can remember for them to do something like this, with no other huge contracts on the books, the mid-level ones there are coming off within the next year or two, and a bunch of young guys making minimums or arbitration money.

There has never been a better time to spend, in my opinion.

[TwinsAce]

31 minutes ago, strumdatjag said:

Not only would Correa require a huge long-term contract but he would block other players the Twins will soon have ready at Shortstop: Lewis, Lee and Martin (currently excelling in the AFL).   Only one of those three has to stick at Shortstop to make it a lousy idea to give an expensive, long term deal to Carlos “Shops at Dior” Correa.  Moreover, a recession is likely, leading to a likelihood of even lower attendance than last year.   Keep the powder dry and use it when there is an opportunity.  Don’t get into bidding wars at this time. 

Having too many top prospects at SS as well as a star player at shortstop can be a good problem.  It can turn into the solution for many things, whether someone going to 3B and moving from good to elite defense or going to the outfield or 2nd.  And not to mention, top prospects at SS do in fact bring back top trade targets, including top pitchers.

IMO - there is a lot more risk in signing a 28 year old pitcher to a 6 year contract vs. a 28 year old star SS to a 8-10 year contract.  I love the fact that Correa has taken to helping the players around him, like Miranda, even though he might not be here next year.

[Launch Angle]

1 hour ago, mac098 said:

So the Mets giving Lindor that large contract is worthless? Or the Braves locking Acuna up for a team friendly contract hasn't paid off? What about Ozzie Albies? His team friendly contract hasn't paid off? The Braves took home the only hardware that matters last season. There are a lot of players who have signed mega-contracts that are now showing the fruits of their labor. Harper? The Phils took down the defending WS champs and are onto the NLCS. Kershaw back in the day. Machado. Yes, we have seen it backfire on teams like the Angels who have Trout and Rendon. But there is more to it than that. But what it ultimately comes down is this: If an organization is willing to spend the money on a play to sign the mega-contract, it show that they want to win. NOT that they just want to fill the seats in the stadium. It tells the fans, "Hey, we hear you. We want you to be proud to call yourself a fan of our team. So we decided to open the checkbook and sign (Insert superstar's name) because we want to bring some post-season hardware to our proud city." 

Honestly, it does come down how the fans support the team and how the owners/FO are willing to spend to be successful. Now we don't have be the Padres and gut our entire pipeline of young talent to make trades for superstars, but we can trade off some talent that may be held back because we already have a superstar in that position. 

You missed the point of this comment, the Twins aren't in the same market as the Met's, Phillies, Dodger's or Angels. The Braves are much closer in terms of payroll but still higher. And I wouldn't consider Acuna's or Ablies' contracts as mega contracts. They were both considered way below market value, they each gave a huge hometown discount for long term financial security. 

[Fire Dan Gladden]

So many people calling out for the Twins to sign Correa to a long-term contract... I agree that if you are going to sign a player to an 8 year deal this is as good a choice as any.

But...

The anger and vitriol directed at Joe Mauer over the last few years of his contract should not be forgotten.  Any contract of this length is going to look bad at the end.  I honestly can't think of a contract like this that did not have 2+ years of "albatross" at the end.  This has to be considered when offering this deal.  Unlike Mauer, Correa is not a hometown guy.  He will be destroyed locally if he bats .240 with avg defense over the end of his contract.

The FO has to consider this as well.  Considering the roller coaster that is Twins SP, you have to wonder if this is where they are willing to plant their flag, especially with Lewis in the wings.

If I were the FO, I would offer him 8y/$280 with a player opt out after 4 years.

My prediction:  He signs elsewhere for more than that.  The Twins sign a placeholder.

[chpettit19]

5 minutes ago, TwinsAce said:

Having too many top prospects at SS as well as a star player at shortstop can be a good problem.  It can turn into the solution for many things, whether someone going to 3B and moving from good to elite defense or going to the outfield or 2nd.  And not to mention, top prospects at SS do in fact bring back top trade targets, including top pitchers.

IMO - there is a lot more risk in signing a 28 year old pitcher to a 6 year contract vs. a 28 year old star SS to a 8-10 year contract.  I love the fact that Correa has taken to helping the players around him, like Miranda, even though he might not be here next year.

Well said. There's posts on TD almost daily about how we have too many corner OF/IF/DH types with no defensive value. Which I agree with. The answer to that problem is having more guys who are borderline SS (I don't count Martin there, he's a terrible SS by all accounts) quality defenders who move to corners and become elite. The Twins need more athleticism, not less. Having a platinum glove SS while having to push other SS quality players to lesser defensive positions would be a dream. Especially cuz those top SS prospects we're talking about are more known for their bats. And infield of Lee-Correa-Lewis-Miranda for the next 6-10 years sounds like a dream!

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

19 minutes ago, Steve Lein said:

There has never been a better time to spend, in my opinion.

I think the much better time to spend would have been prior to 2018, 2019, and 2020, with Mauer coming off the books and the core entering its peak seasons of performance. 

That said, I would not be disappointed if they re-signed Correa. 

[chpettit19]

3 minutes ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

So many people calling out for the Twins to sign Correa to a long-term contract... I agree that if you are going to sign a player to an 8 year deal this is as good a choice as any.

But...

The anger and vitriol directed at Joe Mauer over the last few years of his contract should not be forgotten.  Any contract of this length is going to look bad at the end.  I honestly can't think of a contract like this that did not have 2+ years of "albatross" at the end.  This has to be considered when offering this deal.  Unlike Mauer, Correa is not a hometown guy.  He will be destroyed locally if he bats .240 with avg defense over the end of his contract.

The FO has to consider this as well.  Considering the roller coaster that is Twins SP, you have to wonder if this is where they are willing to plant their flag, especially with Lewis in the wings.

If I were the FO, I would offer him 8y/$280 with a player opt out after 4 years.

My prediction:  He signs elsewhere for more than that.  The Twins sign a placeholder.

If he helps break the 18 game streak and maybe even helps get the Twins to an ALCS before his contract becomes an "albatross" I think the FO would be over the moon happy, and would be able to ignore any fan outrage for the last couple years of the deal. That's the balance. Certain segments of every fan base demand that every contract be a win every season or the FO has failed. That's not new to the FO. Those contracts being a success vs failure shouldn't be looked at as a year by year proposition, in my opinion. It's whether or not the life of the contract proved to be a success or failure.

I wouldn't be thrilled going over 7 years for Correa because those last 3 years he's likely a league average 3B. If you can get him for higher AAV at 7 years that'd be the move I'd prefer, but at some point if you want to attract a premiere talent on the open market you're going to have to pay for decline years. The other option is to cross your fingers that you can develop that kind of talent. To me this FO looks really solid at developing really solid players, but there's not many stars I see coming out of the system. Maybe Lewis is one and then you have 2.5 stars in Correa, Lewis, and Buxton (Buxton obviously the .5). Otherwise you have .5 for sure and have to hope Lewis becomes one and a team with solid players and basically no star power catches lightning in a bottle all at once for the same October run.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

4 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

there's not many stars I see coming out of the system. Maybe Lewis is one and then you have 2.5 stars in Correa, Lewis, and Buxton…

catches lightning in a bottle all at once for the same October run.

I am glad you see the value of catching lightning in a bottle for one magical season, especially in this market, would elevate them to the status of Gods forever. Wrongly, in my opinion, but whatever.  It would be a fun ride. 

I think where the front office needs to place their faith is in their very first real success story, drafting Royce Lewis as their future shortstop. and best case scenario, a potential star. That was the original long term plan, so if I were advising them, I would say their best bet is to go back to that plan. But if this front office is anything, it’s unpredictable. 

[chpettit19]

2 minutes ago, Hosken Bombo Disco said:

I am glad you see the value of catching lightning in a bottle for one magical season, especially in this market, would elevate them to the status of Gods forever. Wrongly, in my opinion, but whatever.  It would be a fun ride. 

I think where the front office needs to place their faith is in their very first real success story, drafting Royce Lewis as their future shortstop. and best case scenario, a potential star. That was the original long term plan, so if I were advising them, I would say their best bet is to go back to that plan. But if this front office is anything, it’s unpredictable. 

Flags fly forever! And I think the Dodgers have made it pretty clear that winning in October is far more about your team catching fire in October than it is building the best roster in baseball.

I was calling for Lewis to be on the opening day roster before this season started so I'm certainly not against the idea. I'm probably the biggest Lewis supporter on these boards. But I'm also all for bringing in as many stars as possible so I'd prefer Correa at SS and Lewis at 3B to start and then 2B when Lee is ready (They're both going to be stars, let me have my dreams!). I think they need to be planning on opening a new window with their new core. I agree with your previous post that they should've spent in '18-'20 as well (to be fair they signed Donaldson before '20), but Kirilloff, Lewis, Lee, Ryan, Duran, Miranda, Arraez, Jeffers, Winder, Ober, etc. are all getting into their mid to late-mid 20s and most of them are under control into their age 30+ seasons. You need them to be the true core that's supported by the base of Correa and Buxton. I think the timeline matches up perfectly to pay Correa for the rest of his peak at the same time you have the entire new core under team control for pre-arb or arb deals. Then cross your fingers some of the new core become stars.