The Single Biggest Flaw with This Minnesota Twins Front Office

[Matthew Taylor]

After a second consecutive disappointing season, the Minnesota Twins front office has come under plenty of fire. There is one area in particular, though, where this front office has especially hurt the Twins’ chances.

 

Image courtesy of Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports

 

Matt Shoemaker. J.A. Happ. Alexander Colomé. Chris Archer. Dylan Bundy. Emilio Pagán. Each of these players are veteran pitchers who struggled mightily out of the gate in a Twins’ uniform, yet were given a leash long enough to pitch well into the Summer (in the cases of Matt Shoemaker and J.A. Happ) or for the entirety of the season (for the rest of the players listed).

The Derek Falvey-led front office of the Minnesota Twins has repeatedly shown an affinity for signing aging middle-tier pitchers and a hesitancy to move on from those veteran pitchers, even when those pitchers are performing especially poorly. 

In 2021, this issue was seen all over the roster. J.A. Happ and Matt Shoemaker were giving up 5+ earned runs per start for months and Alexander Colomé was continuously trotted out to the mound to blow game after game.

Rather than learning from those mistakes in 2021, Falvey’s propensity for sticking with veterans too long was even more prominent in 2022. Both Chris Archer and Dylan Bundy somehow made it through the entire season on the roster, despite both of them being terrible all season and each finishing with ERAs in the high 4’s. 

And then there’s Emilio Pagán. We all know of the struggles that Pagán had in 2022, yet he was continuously relied upon in big moments throughout the season, and the Twins suffered mightily as a result. One would think that after the Alexander Colomé disaster of 2021 that Falvey would have learned his lesson, but things only got worse this season, as Pagán finished third on the team in innings pitched despite having the 8th worst win probability added in the American League. 

The most common rebuttal that I’ve heard from Twins fans defending Derek Falvey for sticking with his veterans is that there were so many injuries that the Twins had no choice but to stick with these guys. The final months of the 2022 season for the Twins, though, proved otherwise.

Over the final months of the season, the Minnesota Twins saw impressive debuts from rookies such as Louie Varland, Ronny Henriquez, and Simeon Woods Richardson. They also had other arms in the minors performing well, namely Evan Sisk, who posted a 2.00 ERA over 63 innings in Double-A and Triple-A.

Not only were the Minnesota Twins trotting out pitchers day after day that were actively losing them baseball games, but they proved at the end of the year that they had plenty of talent in the minor leagues that could have performed better and also gotten valuable experience they needed as part of the long-term future of this ball club.

Looking ahead to free agency of 2023, let’s hope that the Twins front office has finally learned from their mistakes with trusting middle-tier veteran pitchers. Time and time again, we have learned that veteran-ness does not automatically make you a better player and that by giving an opportunity to younger pitchers, you are unlocking opportunity and ceiling that simply isn’t there with the Dylan Bundy’s and Matt Shoemaker’s of the world.

 

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[Mark G]

"The Derek Falvey-led front office of the Minnesota Twins"

That is the premise the article started with, and while I agree with the vast majority of the article, I still maintain it is the Jim Pohlad led front office.  Nothing goes on there without his knowledge, and even if the decision he makes is to delegate the decisions to others, the decisions are his responsibility and the buck stops with him.  This is his team, not Falvine's or Rocco's; begin with Big Jim and work your way down.  

[Major League Ready]

I think you have completely missed the boat on this one.  The problem area has been the failure to produce enough starting pitching through the draft or trading for prospects like Ryan.   They simply do not have even close to the budget to build via top free agents.  Ironically, if they were great at drafting and trading for prospects like Tampa, high end free agents or extending the players they develop becomes more viable.

 

Sorry, Mark but I don't agree with you either.  Share holders (the people who fund companies) don't dictate success unless they are not proving adequate funding.  This team's payroll is in line with their revenue so that's not the case and Pohlad is not making baseball (personnel) decisions.  Of course, it is up to Jim Pohlad to make changes if the leadership team does not perform.  IMO, we still are not sure if this front office has proven they can or can not produce homegrown pitching which as stated above is the core issue.  I want to see if Varland / SWR / Winder / Ryan / and Ober make a legit MLB rotation.  I also want to see if Duran gets a shot at be an ace SP.   If that happens, they will have a lot of budget room going forward to add more impact players through free agency.  They get one more year for me because I would hate to dismiss the leadership that finally built a pitching staff in Minnesota.

[Blyleven2011]

The biggest single flaw with the front office  is that they think they are the smartest people in the room   ....  

They doubled down on the worst coaching staff for 2023 , if players can be replaced with better talent so can the coaching staff  ... 

This is reality  and not negativity  ...

That's my plan and I'm sticking to it  ...

[Doctor Gast]

'21 left a very sour taste in our mouths. There was a lot of "positive hype" surrounding Happ, Shoemaker to the point many lauded that rotation as our best since Santana/ Liriano. Also Colume' was going to be our next great closer. I didn't fall for that BS, how can a soft tossing LHP ever succeed in a RH hitting division? I didn't think that they could fix Shoemaker and if CWS didn't want Colume', there must be something wrong.

'22 that trade for Paddack & Pagan, they should fire the guy who's responsible for that disaster. But concerning Bundy, if they used him right, I figured he'd be useful. When they used him right he surpassed my expectations. When they used him within his profile he was great, beyond his profile he was ineffective. But he still gave us a lot of quality innings.

They knew exactly what they were getting when they got Archer. Archer practically didn't have spring training but yet he surpassed many expectations and gave us many quality innings. I was hoping that the Twins would perfect his circle change-up (a key that would unlock his carreer much like what happened to Johan Santana) but that didn't happen, I was dissapointed but his change-up was still good enough to sneak in for SOs to offset his FB/ slider (but that didn't happen). But his greatest contribution was his mentoring young pitchers, which many overlook.

The "negative hype" against Bundy & Archer gives us a false picture of reality. We had a very talented rotation but weak. Bundy & Archer weren't the reason for over stetching the rotation & over burdening the BP. It was the absence of our plethora of talented long RPs (our strongest pitching force) that weren't used in that capacity.

[LewFordLives]

I'm somewhat sympathetic to the injury argument. As the summer went on, no one wanted Archer or Bundy in the rotation, but what choice did they have.  Yeah, Varland and SWR had some encouraging outings towards the end, but were the Twins going to throw them into the fire while they were still in the middle of a pennant race? They had barely gotten their feet wet at AAA. As noted in another comment, the achilles-heel of the Twins has been their failure to develop pitching. Falvey was brought in to help solve this riddle, but the results so far have not been encouraging.

[jmlease1]

29 minutes ago, LewFordLives said:

I'm somewhat sympathetic to the injury argument. As the summer went on, no one wanted Archer or Bundy in the rotation, but what choice did they have.  Yeah, Varland and SWR had some encouraging outings towards the end, but were the Twins going to throw them into the fire while they were still in the middle of a pennant race? They had barely gotten their feet wet at AAA. As noted in another comment, the achilles-heel of the Twins has been their failure to develop pitching. Falvey was brought in to help solve this riddle, but the results so far have not been encouraging.

agreed. and while there's criticism to be made to the front office in getting stuck in the sunk cost fallacy, there's also a pretty significant difference between how Happ & Shoemaker performed vs Bundy & Archer. Happ had an ERA+ of 63 and Shoemaker 53. Bundy & Archer were at 79 & 85 respectively. That's not good, but it's also not dreadful in the same way that the other two were.

Varland and SWR also started the season in AA. Let's not pretend they were really ready to step in to the rotation in June.

[mikelink45]

Good reflection 

Let's hope we go young or get quality 

[Brandon]

I give Falvey and Levine a pass on development.  why?  I’m glad you asked.   Because the 2020 season was wiped out and 2021 saw our best prospects injured.  Going into 2023 we have Winder, Ober, Ryan, Varland, Woods-Richardson, Henriguez,  Balazovich, and Testa and Dobnak is there somewhere, Duran, Moran, Jax.  So they are getting pitching developed. And now it’s finding out who takes the next steps and who stalls out.  But there is enough here to see a lot of potential.  Losing out on 1-2 seasons of development in the middle stages hurt them a lot.  I say let’s give them 2 more seasons to see what we have.  On judging their trades they were good at the time they were made.  Overall I don’t think they did too bad if a job.  I was happy with what they did last season.  

[HerbieFan]

To deviate from the "process" or "plan" would be to admit they made a mistake.  I don't think Falvey is real keen on admitting he was wrong.

[jmlease1]

9 minutes ago, HerbieFan said:

To deviate from the "process" or "plan" would be to admit they made a mistake.  I don't think Falvey is real keen on admitting he was wrong.

Because he hasn't said it to you explicitly and personally? I mean, no one in these jobs goes out in public and says "Hey, I screwed up." And literally none of them are keen on admitting they were wrong. But they certainly made adjustments this season that were tacit admissions that they hadn't gotten their offseason right when they traded for a starter and 2 relievers at the deadline.

[Stew]

Yes they give older veterans a second chance. They try to get by cheaper hoping one guy will have a break thru year. I can see what they are doing but if they took the money they spent on three pitchers they could go after an ace. If they make the right moves they could get Rondon or syndagard this off season.

[RonCoomersOPS]

28 minutes ago, Stew said:

...but if they took the money they spent on three pitchers they could go after an ace.

And then when the ace joins the 65 other players on the IL for half the season, then you've got three players' worth of money providing zero value to the team instead of one guy hurt and two still able to help the team.

[Rosterman]

It ws a tough 2022. Somehow, the Twins were winning into September with the crap that was sticking to the wall. They made some moves at the trade deadline. Who thought Hale would turn up lame. Plus, you can't move players that are on the injured list at the time (Kepler).

You hope that you have depth. Better to cut and move on, Pagan and Archer and Bundy for example. But, sadly, at some point the Twins were pushing to find five rotation arms with Ober and Co. on the injured lsit. Thought we were deep, but at one point the Twins weren't, the bullpen was overworked, the outfielder was down to 5-6-7 on the depth chart, and our catchers couldn't stop a running game. Although Sandy Leon showed that anyone should be able to lay down a great bunt.

Besides the guys that make the majors, the Twins sign a wealth of min or league talent. Gonzalez, Sanchez, Rodriguez, Coulombe, Cotton, Minaya, Hamilton, Thornburg, Romero...I wuld give creed to Davis...pitched for the Twins. Godoy, Beckham, Soto (not one at bat), Palacios, Garlick, Cave, Hamilton were basically useless.

The Twins spent good money on Jake Jewell, Argenis Angelo, Curtis Terry, Jake Faria, Derek Fisher, Mario Sanchez, Wladimir Pinto, Kevin Merrill, Chance Sisco, J.C. Ramirez, Tyler Bashlor, Ariel Jurado, Tyler Viza, Daniel Robertson, Brandon Lawson, Steven Klimek, Cole Sturgeon, Jake Patricka, Hunter Wood, Michael Boyle, Nash Knight, Zach Huffins, Brandon Bishop, Ben Heller, Michael Feliz, Brad Peacock. That's a hellvuva a lot of guys who had major league experience and couldn't crack the Twins, let alone most of them didn't last the season. 

And then you egt prospects, that you have to get to a certain level in 4-5-6 years, or they depart.

Yes, injuries were horrible in 2022. They hurt every position except for a brief time at shortstop and the Twins ahd third base covered. But everywhere else, especially in the outfield and rotation, the Twins ended up going with players like Contreras (good for him, getting to the majors, but...) and our beloved Jake (now an Oriole) Cave.

[mnfireman]

Falvey and Levine have basically been trying to buy time until the prospects arrive, and they have slowly been trickling in.

Archer and Bundy were supposed to placeholders, but wound up being counted on at MLB due to injuries and slow development. Same with Happ and Shoemaker in '21. 

Colome' and Pagan were relied on for too long, with Pagan publicly being outed as resistant to coaching. Perhaps Colome' was also.

I believe (and several TD posters disagree with me) that the lost season of 2020 hindered a lot of players development. Pitchers were throwing with no coaching (perhaps leading to injuries in '21 & '22, it can't be proven either way) and many position players were missing valuable hitting and fielding coaching. Also, these players were not getting professional baseball strength, conditioning and stretching coaching/supervision. All a formula for failure.

To the eye test (mine anyway) injuries, especially to young players, seem to be up over the last 2 full seasons at all levels. And many of these players would have advanced at least 3 levels over the '20 & '21 Milb & MLB seasons, that's a lot of missed high-level competition. And don't tell me that all of baseball dealt with the pandemic and missed seasons, I know that. It just appears to me that the Twins players being counted on for future development were in the stages of development and at the ages where coaching mattered and they were unable to get it.

All this and what team could withstand losing their starting C, 1B, 2B, LF, CF, RF, replacement 1B, replacement RF/LF, 3 starting pitchers (actuaully 6, but Archer shouldn't have been here that long  Maeda probably wasn't counted on to contribute much, and Mahle was acquired at the deadline), and various relievers and role players throughout the season? 

[Major League Ready]

11 hours ago, mnfireman said:

Falvey and Levine have basically been trying to buy time until the prospects arrive, and they have slowly been trickling in.

Archer and Bundy were supposed to placeholders, but wound up being counted on at MLB due to injuries and slow development. Same with Happ and Shoemaker in '21. 

Colome' and Pagan were relied on for too long, with Pagan publicly being outed as resistant to coaching. Perhaps Colome' was also.

I believe (and several TD posters disagree with me) that the lost season of 2020 hindered a lot of players development. Pitchers were throwing with no coaching (perhaps leading to injuries in '21 & '22, it can't be proven either way) and many position players were missing valuable hitting and fielding coaching. Also, these players were not getting professional baseball strength, conditioning and stretching coaching/supervision. All a formula for failure.

To the eye test (mine anyway) injuries, especially to young players, seem to be up over the last 2 full seasons at all levels. And many of these players would have advanced at least 3 levels over the '20 & '21 Milb & MLB seasons, that's a lot of missed high-level competition. And don't tell me that all of baseball dealt with the pandemic and missed seasons, I know that. It just appears to me that the Twins players being counted on for future development were in the stages of development and at the ages where coaching mattered and they were unable to get it.

All this and what team could withstand losing their starting C, 1B, 2B, LF, CF, RF, replacement 1B, replacement RF/LF, 3 starting pitchers (actuaully 6, but Archer shouldn't have been here that long  Maeda probably wasn't counted on to contribute much, and Mahle was acquired at the deadline), and various relievers and role players throughout the season? 

I wonder how many of us would accept the premise they had managed horribly if we lost several major contributors to the team we manage.   We were already fringe contenders, so I just don't see how anyone is surprised by the results given the cold hard facts you have outlined in the final paragraph above.  

[rv78]

The Derek Falvey-led front office of the Minnesota Twins has repeatedly shown an affinity for signing aging middle-tier pitchers and a hesitancy to move on from those veteran pitchers, even when those pitchers are performing especially poorly. 

This one sentence says it all. At first I thought too that they didn't move on soon enough because they didn't want to have it look like they were admitting they made mistakes, but that really doesn't hold true since the longer you hold on the worst your mistake looks. Anyone looking at the outcomes of these acquisitions at just about any point of the season shows they were mistakes. Everyone starts with a Plan. The Plan for the Twins 99 times out of 100 is, to buy low and hope for the best. Now, as Matthew says in his article, I hope they have learned from their mistakes. They have a stable full of young pitchers ready to contribute. Maybe they have done their job building up a pitching staff that will be really good going forward. Time will tell. If they sign any veteran pitchers in the off-season make it a stud pitcher. If not, then let the young guys take over. Don't waste anymore innings and games on the washed up veteran pitchers. If you are going to lose anyway, which is what you get with those types of pitchers, then just give it to the young guys so they learn at the same time. 

[mikelink45]

If you watched the playoff games last night you saw teams win with singles and multiple hits in San Diego and Cleveland. These teams wouldn't give up and didn't play for just a home run. There is a lesson there. I also saw some stolen bases, bunts and pitchers going more than one inning. We also saw some very good managers who are not tied to their computers. I love seeing the guardians who everybody has underestimated. They may not win it all, but they beat the Yankees two game so far. I hope Rocco is still watching and learning from them.

[mikelink45]

One last thought. Houston believed in this young shortstop and it has paid off. For more than 40 million a year less they have filled that position. Now we need to get our young guys in that shortstop.

[Karbo]

Maybe the front office needs to be more careful when signing players with injury issues. Either they are getting terrible advice from the medical advisors or they are too pig-headed to listen. Also, not to beat a dead horse, but getting so many pitchers that clearly no other teams want has to be a bad recipe for success. And last but not least, get some relief pitchers that are capable of going 2-3 innings at a time!

[beterday]

Is Rocco really making the decision to pitch Pagan again in a game winning/losing situation; I remember yelling at the TV several times this summer over that decision.  Isn't this because Falvine has made that decision by not dropping Pagan by May or June.  If it was Rocco, I believe he would have been fired at the end of the year if not sooner, earlier in the summer.  I certainly would have fired him.  Bundy and Archer met expectations, the team just didn't have the relievers to fill 5-6 innings every game they pitched.  Was Rocco making the decision to pull the starters by the 6th inning regardless of how they were doing?  Why did Ryan get to pitch later into games, often left out there to clean up his own mess of a bad outing into the 7th inning?  The third time through the order philosophy.  Was that Rocco?  Without the front office on board he would have been fired by June.  Is Rocco like Sonny Gray and hoping he gets a shot at making these decisions for a different team, or is he fully onboard?  These decisions have to being made at a higher level than Rocco.

[USAFChief]

13 hours ago, mnfireman said:

 And don't tell me that all of baseball dealt with the pandemic and missed seasons, 

1st of all, all of baseball dealt with the pandemic and missed seasons. 

2nd, if somehow the Twins were damaged more by missing 2020 than the other 29 teams, shouldn't Falvine have accounted for that, rather than count on prospects who weren't going to pan out because reasons?

3rd, all of baseball dealt with the pandemic and  missed seasons. 

 

[rv78]

3 hours ago, beterday said:

Is Rocco really making the decision to pitch Pagan again in a game winning/losing situation; I remember yelling at the TV several times this summer over that decision.  Isn't this because Falvine has made that decision by not dropping Pagan by May or June.  If it was Rocco, I believe he would have been fired at the end of the year if not sooner, earlier in the summer.  I certainly would have fired him.  Bundy and Archer met expectations, the team just didn't have the relievers to fill 5-6 innings every game they pitched.  Was Rocco making the decision to pull the starters by the 6th inning regardless of how they were doing?  Why did Ryan get to pitch later into games, often left out there to clean up his own mess of a bad outing into the 7th inning?  The third time through the order philosophy.  Was that Rocco?  Without the front office on board he would have been fired by June.  Is Rocco like Sonny Gray and hoping he gets a shot at making these decisions for a different team, or is he fully onboard?  These decisions have to being made at a higher level than Rocco.

Regardless if Rocco is making these decisions on his own or not, the FO has his back. They are joined at the hip. Just like the FO bringing in the washed-up pitchers that they stick with even when they are bad, they are doing the same with Rocco. It'll take the FO to be fired for Rocco to be fired. St Peter has already said that they have done a really good job and will run this organization for many years to come. When the head of your operations can't see how bad they've been there is little hope for change near term. Unfortunately it'll take another season or two or three or who the H E double LL toothpicks knows of failed expectations before any changes are made in the FO or management and coaching. 

[chpettit19]

4 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

If you watched the playoff games last night you saw teams win with singles and multiple hits in San Diego and Cleveland. These teams wouldn't give up and didn't play for just a home run. There is a lesson there. I also saw some stolen bases, bunts and pitchers going more than one inning. We also saw some very good managers who are not tied to their computers. I love seeing the guardians who everybody has underestimated. They may not win it all, but they beat the Yankees two game so far. I hope Rocco is still watching and learning from them.

Those scrappy Guardians got to the series against the Yankees by scoring 100% of their runs in the wild card round via the homerun. Then scored their only run in game 1 of the ALDS via the homerun. So 3 of their 5 games so far they scored 0 runs without hitting a homerun. Philly bashed Atlanta out of the NLDS with homerun after homerun. The only run scored in the Astros Mariners game last night by the SS you falsely claim costs more than 40 million less a year (how do you even come up with that stat? He makes 700k, Correa made 35.1 M) came via HR. 

I get it, the Twins were brutally bad with RISP this season. The entire team should be embarrassed. And the game is more fun when there's action on the base paths and guys are coming up with big clutch singles and doubles with guys on base. But let's be real about what's happening in the playoffs. In almost every playoff game I've watched they've mentioned how high a percent of runs are being scored via the homerun. It was almost HR or bust for the entire wild card round.

The lesson is you need to be good at hitting to score. The Twins weren't good at hitting. They've very much changed their "HR or Bust" strategy from the last couple years. Buxton has become pretty HR or bust, but the majority of the team (Correa, Polanco, Arraez, Miranda, Gordon, Urshela, Celestino, Kirilloff, and Larnach) were not HR or Bust guys. The Twins hit the ball to the opposite field 25.4% of the time this season. League average was 25.1%. Those scrappy Guardians were at a whopping 26.4%. Oh, and those mighty Guardians with all their clutch hitting and not just playing for a HR scored an unbelievable 2 more runs than those brutally bad, need to change their whole strategy Twins this season. Imagine how much happier you would've been with those extra 2 runs if the Twins would just have had more sacrifice bunts! Miami had 84 more steals than the Twins this year. And scored 100 fewer runs.

The lesson is that the Twins were a really bad team with runners in scoring position. They were 10th in the league in BB% and 12th in K%. They were 12th in BA. 10th in OBP and 11th in SLG. They were 9th in wRC+ overall. They were just brutally, brutally bad with RISP (22nd in BA w/RISP). Stealing more bases with a terribly slow team wouldn't make them hit better with RISP. Oh, and they were even above average at not chasing pitches 28.5% to league average of 29.1%. The lesson isn't always "if they'd just done it 'old school' and ignored the analytics they'd have been better!" As shown by basically any stat (new or old) you can come up with. Sometimes the lesson is the Twins just didn't hit well with RISP.

One last stat: the NYY were 21st in BA with RISP this season. .001 higher than the Twins. They scored the 2nd most runs in baseball. 1 of only 2 teams over 800 runs scored. Which offensive stat do you think they lead baseball in? Hint: It's homeruns. It's almost like hitting homeruns is a really good strategy.

Ok, I lied, 1 last stat: top 10 run scoring offenses this year: Dodgers, NYY, Braves, Jays, Cards, Mets, Phils, Astros, Red Sox, Brewers. Ranked 5, 1, 2, 7, 9, 15, 6, 4, 20, 3 in homeruns. So of the top 10 offenses in baseball 8 of them were top 10 in homeruns. Ugh, Falvine is so dumb for wanting to hit homeruns!

Hitting homeruns is a wonderful strategy. It can't be the only strategy, but it's so unbelievably better when it comes to scoring runs than sac bunts and steals it's not even funny. Having a great all-around offense (and team in general) is the best strategy. That's why the Dodgers put up the crazy stats they do during the regular season. But if you can only have HRs or steals/sac bunts/whatever "old school fundamentals" you want to call for there's no debate, HRs are what you want. Of the top 10 teams in steals 4 of them were in the top 10 run scoring offenses. LAD, NYY, PHI, and MIL. What do those 4 teams have in common? They were all top 6 in homeruns hit. You want one of those 4 offenses or Texas, Miami, Cleveland, Cubs, Diamondbacks, and Royals? Those are the other top 10 steals teams. They rank 12th, 28th, 15th, 22nd, 14th, and 24th in runs scored this year.

[Greglw3]

Bravo! I think you hit the nail squarely on the head with your whole article. I couldn’t agree more.

Hopefully they finally build more depth or real major league experienced players to cover for the chronically injured among the Twins 40 man roster else they could once again have an outfield of Cave (substitute Cave-like player), Celestino and Kepler in Big games. See my greglw3’s 2023 payroll blueprint.

[mikelink45]

3 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

Those scrappy Guardians got to the series against the Yankees by scoring 100% of their runs in the wild card round via the homerun. Then scored their only run in game 1 of the ALDS via the homerun. So 3 of their 5 games so far they scored 0 runs without hitting a homerun. Philly bashed Atlanta out of the NLDS with homerun after homerun. The only run scored in the Astros Mariners game last night by the SS you falsely claim costs more than 40 million less a year (how do you even come up with that stat? He makes 700k, Correa made 35.1 M) came via HR. 

I get it, the Twins were brutally bad with RISP this season. The entire team should be embarrassed. And the game is more fun when there's action on the base paths and guys are coming up with big clutch singles and doubles with guys on base. But let's be real about what's happening in the playoffs. In almost every playoff game I've watched they've mentioned how high a percent of runs are being scored via the homerun. It was almost HR or bust for the entire wild card round.

The lesson is you need to be good at hitting to score. The Twins weren't good at hitting. They've very much changed their "HR or Bust" strategy from the last couple years. Buxton has become pretty HR or bust, but the majority of the team (Correa, Polanco, Arraez, Miranda, Gordon, Urshela, Celestino, Kirilloff, and Larnach) were not HR or Bust guys. The Twins hit the ball to the opposite field 25.4% of the time this season. League average was 25.1%. Those scrappy Guardians were at a whopping 26.4%. Oh, and those mighty Guardians with all their clutch hitting and not just playing for a HR scored an unbelievable 2 more runs than those brutally bad, need to change their whole strategy Twins this season. Imagine how much happier you would've been with those extra 2 runs if the Twins would just have had more sacrifice bunts! Miami had 84 more steals than the Twins this year. And scored 100 fewer runs.

The lesson is that the Twins were a really bad team with runners in scoring position. They were 10th in the league in BB% and 12th in K%. They were 12th in BA. 10th in OBP and 11th in SLG. They were 9th in wRC+ overall. They were just brutally, brutally bad with RISP (22nd in BA w/RISP). Stealing more bases with a terribly slow team wouldn't make them hit better with RISP. Oh, and they were even above average at not chasing pitches 28.5% to league average of 29.1%. The lesson isn't always "if they'd just done it 'old school' and ignored the analytics they'd have been better!" As shown by basically any stat (new or old) you can come up with. Sometimes the lesson is the Twins just didn't hit well with RISP.

One last stat: the NYY were 21st in BA with RISP this season. .001 higher than the Twins. They scored the 2nd most runs in baseball. 1 of only 2 teams over 800 runs scored. Which offensive stat do you think they lead baseball in? Hint: It's homeruns. It's almost like hitting homeruns is a really good strategy.

Ok, I lied, 1 last stat: top 10 run scoring offenses this year: Dodgers, NYY, Braves, Jays, Cards, Mets, Phils, Astros, Red Sox, Brewers. Ranked 5, 1, 2, 7, 9, 15, 6, 4, 20, 3 in homeruns. So of the top 10 offenses in baseball 8 of them were top 10 in homeruns. Ugh, Falvine is so dumb for wanting to hit homeruns!

Hitting homeruns is a wonderful strategy. It can't be the only strategy, but it's so unbelievably better when it comes to scoring runs than sac bunts and steals it's not even funny. Having a great all-around offense (and team in general) is the best strategy. That's why the Dodgers put up the crazy stats they do during the regular season. But if you can only have HRs or steals/sac bunts/whatever "old school fundamentals" you want to call for there's no debate, HRs are what you want. Of the top 10 teams in steals 4 of them were in the top 10 run scoring offenses. LAD, NYY, PHI, and MIL. What do those 4 teams have in common? They were all top 6 in homeruns hit. You want one of those 4 offenses or Texas, Miami, Cleveland, Cubs, Diamondbacks, and Royals? Those are the other top 10 steals teams. They rank 12th, 28th, 15th, 22nd, 14th, and 24th in runs scored this year.

I loved your details in this, but still maintain that we need hits - I am not against HRs.  I just like a complete approach to the game.

 

[chpettit19]

16 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

I loved your details in this, but still maintain that we need hits - I am not against HRs.  I just like a complete approach to the game.

 

Yes, the team needs to get more hits. But as I pointed out, the lineup was built for a more "complete approach to the game." Outside of steals and sac bunts, which are strategies used sparingly across the league as a whole, as they aren't good strategies for scoring runs. But the Twins offense was built with the idea of being able to get hits alongside their HRs. 

How many of the expected 12 regulars entering the season were HR or bust guys? That's my point. They were bad at getting hits, that's not the same thing as being built for power only. Sano was expected to be a HR or bust guy. Who else? Buxton, unfortunately, turned into one, but didn't come into the year expecting to be that way. Kepler is a power only guy at this point. But Polanco, Correa, Urshela, Arraez, Gordon, Kirilloff, and Celestino aren't. Jeffers and Sanchez came into the year expected to be pretty bad hitters in general, but I don't think I'd count either as power only guys. So 2 out of 12 guys were power only, and Buxton joined them while losing Sano so it was still 2 guys most of the year. That's not a team built to only mash. With Larnach and Lewis as the first 2 guys on the list for injury callups to the OF or IF that's 2 of the top 14 guys being power only.

There's a difference between the team being bad at hitting and only playing for HRs. This team was bad at hitting. Not being able to execute a "complete approach to the game" is different than not trying to. The stats show they weren't built for, nor did they attempt to execute, a "HR or bust" approach. They simply weren't good at driving in runs. My point is that there's a misperception that the Twins want HRs and HRs only. Also a misperception that their HR only approach leads to crazy amounts of strikeouts. Neither of those things are true. They just didn't hit well enough with runners in scoring position. Despite being more than willing to go the other way and take singles and all those non-steal and sac bunt strategies people want, they just weren't good at getting clutch hits.

So saying the Twins need to learn a lesson from yesterday's playoff games is wrong. Unless all you mean is that they need to get better at doing what they were already trying to do.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

2 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

I loved your details in this, but still maintain that we need hits - I am not against HRs.  I just like a complete approach to the game.

 

Well said, Mike.

[KirbyDome89]

On 10/15/2022 at 11:13 AM, Brandon said:

I give Falvey and Levine a pass on development.  why?  I’m glad you asked.   Because the 2020 season was wiped out and 2021 saw our best prospects injured.  Going into 2023 we have Winder, Ober, Ryan, Varland, Woods-Richardson, Henriguez,  Balazovich, and Testa and Dobnak is there somewhere, Duran, Moran, Jax.  So they are getting pitching developed. And now it’s finding out who takes the next steps and who stalls out.  But there is enough here to see a lot of potential.  Losing out on 1-2 seasons of development in the middle stages hurt them a lot.  I say let’s give them 2 more seasons to see what we have.  On judging their trades they were good at the time they were made.  Overall I don’t think they did too bad if a job.  I was happy with what they did last season.  

This entire post could be a copy paste from the same time last year. 2022 was supposedly the development year, and very little of that happened, yet here we are, talking about "next year," and "potential." 

[KirbyDome89]

On 10/15/2022 at 7:29 AM, Mark G said:

"The Derek Falvey-led front office of the Minnesota Twins"

That is the premise the article started with, and while I agree with the vast majority of the article, I still maintain it is the Jim Pohlad led front office.  Nothing goes on there without his knowledge, and even if the decision he makes is to delegate the decisions to others, the decisions are his responsibility and the buck stops with him.  This is his team, not Falvine's or Rocco's; begin with Big Jim and work your way down.  

Jim Pohlad has never been a hands on owner. Hell, it took a Total System Failure in 2016 to move on from a miserable TR reunion. He sets the payroll and that's it. If you want to bitch about how much this team is spending relative to revenue, go for it (and you might be right) but the FO controls every decision regarding personnel on and off the field.