What To Do With Gio Urshela?

[Brett]

He turns 31 in a couple of weeks, so I wouldn’t do anything past next year. If Royce Lewis returns and still plays like Royce Lewis, we can flip Urshela at the deadline.

in somewhat unrelated news, anyone know where I can make $10M for being a solid performer? That sounds like a pretty good gig.

[FlyingFinn]

Miranda will be the Twins starting third baseman in 2023. He is one of our most durable players, hardly ever getting a day off. His bat has to be in the lineup. He has to improve a lot at 3B but he won't do that by taking another year off and playing 1B and DH, which we don't really have room for if Buxton needs to be there often. Hopefully, Kirilloff is at first base. If not, Arraez will be there.

The Twins play Gordan at SS in emergencies this year so I don't think that is an option for Urshela. I see a sign and trade happening for Urshela.

[PatPfund]

I spent most of the year assuming he'd be gone. Now I think you offer arbitration and gladly pay $10 million for the quality of player/teammate/hitter/continuity.

This won't be a team 'with little turnover'; Correa is opting out, and he is one of of the (only) five decent hitters in our lineup (Urshela, Arraez, Miranda, and Gordon being the others). Kirilloff had experimental surgery; he may be back next year or never again. The outfield options are both intriguing and too young/injured to count on. We need help behind the plate.

So have Gio back next year; just arbitration if you only want the one year, or sign him for a few. And take at least one big question mark off the board.

[MTV]

5 hours ago, Mark G said:

No brainer.  He is your starting 3rd baseman.  His numbers match up with virtually anyone on the team all told, less power than Buck but hits for a much better average, has numbers overall that match pretty well with Correa and Miranda, and doesn't hit as much for average as Arraez, but has more power.  Absolutely a better defensive 3rd baseman than Miranda, and I am SO sick and tired of saying 10M is too much to pay for a player with his overall performance.  

I would sign him to an extension, maybe 2 years with a team option for a 3rd, and if the team goes south you could trade him with his contract control being a good bargaining chip.  He is a good all around player and not a problem child as far as I have ever read.  Sign him!  

Don’t sign him long term, not with Martin, Lee and Lewis all expected to be up by 2024. Urshela’s good but not a key piece

[Rosterman]

I would take the arbitration gamble for now, and consider rotating him with Miranda and Arraez at 1B/3B/DH, unless the Twins truly egt a BIG BAT for the DH spot.

But I would monitor spring training carefully, see how Miranda does at third base, and use Gio as a trade piece and don't wait for his season to tank, as has Kepler's, which would make him untradable and then I guy you feel you have to play because of the pay. 

I don't really see much in the wayy of 40-man roster troubles. I just see the Twins having to make a few hard decisions, especially on outfielders, coming out of spring training.

Do I like Arraez at first base? I was hoping it would be the home of Kirilloff, and then Miranda would be the fulltime guy at third. Where to play Arraez?

[jmlease1]

2 hours ago, Mark G said:

Agree with most, but at the end you say if he were a FA today he would get 3-4 year offers; offers being plural.  I believe that is right; more than one team in MLB would consider that.  My thought process is if multiple other teams (at least I believe there would be) think he is worth the offer, why wouldn't we?  Our 3rd base options are a lesser fielder who we could play elsewhere, and prospects we hope will be ready soon.  A bird in the hand...........

I think the teams that would offer a 3-4 year deal have fewer in-house options to play 3B, let alone hard-charging prospects. And I'm arguing to keep him for next season, not let him go. But considering what our options will look like in 2024 (Miranda, with Martin, Lee, and Julien pushing up from the minors with Arraez still an option if needed/wanted) does locking in a good, but not great player to an expensive multi-year deal make the most sense? or are you better off paying him in 2023 on a 1 year deal to ensure you have his quality, professional play and if someone like Julien hits so well at AAA that you have to find a spot for him, you can easily flip him at the deadline? And if Kirilloff is healthy, he'll almost certainly be absorbing some time at 1B, but Miranda's bat will need to be in the lineup.

[KBJ1]

Gio is a solid and healthy player.

Something that 20 of our 40 man roster can't say.

If only he could back up the SS position, he would be an excellent utility man!

Gordon backs up 2nd and is the 4th OF.

He also has speed, a desperately needed asset.

We need Kiriloff at 1B. If not, maybe the prepaid contract of Hosmer is available??

Yeah Arraez makes contact, but why everyone is so in love with his 315 BA is beyond me. He has no speed, power & is way below average in fielding.

Miranda plays 3B, Lewis if recovered plays SS, and Gio backs them up.

Polanco plays 2B & Gordon backs him up. That leaves 1B & 35M for pitching. 

Celestino is 5th OF. So we are stuck with Kepler & Larnarch or we go and get a power hitting OF and trade both Arraez and Kepler.

[RpR]

Gio has been proven to be a very good Third Baseman if they do not sign him they gain another hole their fielding which id Correa leaves means the Twins will return to the lousy fielding days of a few years ago.

Miranda is not a good fielder but he seems to be adapting to First Base so play him there and DH.

All the upcoming/returning rookies, are the usually Wishful Thinking so many here think overrules reality.

Contreras and Palacios came up and showed what reality looks like compared to Wishful Thinking.

[Mark G]

20 minutes ago, jmlease1 said:

I think the teams that would offer a 3-4 year deal have fewer in-house options to play 3B, let alone hard-charging prospects. And I'm arguing to keep him for next season, not let him go. But considering what our options will look like in 2024 (Miranda, with Martin, Lee, and Julien pushing up from the minors with Arraez still an option if needed/wanted) does locking in a good, but not great player to an expensive multi-year deal make the most sense? or are you better off paying him in 2023 on a 1 year deal to ensure you have his quality, professional play and if someone like Julien hits so well at AAA that you have to find a spot for him, you can easily flip him at the deadline? And if Kirilloff is healthy, he'll almost certainly be absorbing some time at 1B, but Miranda's bat will need to be in the lineup.

Again, a bird in the hand.

You have a pretty good 3rd baseman who can hit in your clubhouse.  You have a player who played 3rd base in the minors, but hasn't shown the defense you would like, but sure can hit, and can also be put in another position sitting next to him.  And you have an outfielder/1st baseman who has shown he can't stay healthy enough to count on.  Then you have a bunch of potential prospects who may, or may not, ever spend much time in the above mentioned clubhouse, and certainly not knowing how long it may take for them to get to that clubhouse.  A proven commodity vs. all of the above.  Hmmmmmm...........

Again, a bird in the hand.  

Where am I going wrong?  

[Minny505]

7 hours ago, Mark G said:

 Absolutely a better defensive 3rd baseman than Miranda...

Yes, but not by as much as most people seem to believe. He is marginally better. Not Arenado better. 

Miranda, due to his hit tool, has far more total value and is a perfectly serviceable, roughly league average, defensive 3B. With more consistent playing time at the position, he might grade out as Urshela's equal. 

[GopherJeff]

Urshela is a good deal for *at least* 2023. Offensively, he's not a star but he seems to be well-liked and is one of the team's better performers for '22 (which ain't saying much for this team).

He's fine defensively - .985 fielding %, which is 2nd in MLB (behind only Matt Chapman). In short, he's definitely not a liability at 3rd base..

There are so many other needs for the Twins. Keeping Urshela around for another year (or more) is wise.

 

[Minny505]

3 hours ago, twinfan said:

Why should there be a crunch in the 40 man roster? Do you really want to keep Jake Cave on there? Sano? Thielbar? Archer, even Sanchez? C'mon. There has to be minor leaguers better than them. And cheaper too. And what does "ready" really mean? Prospect lists come and go and some of those on the team now doing ok were never top 10 prospects. If a player is that good, then play him. If not, then ????

Yes, I absolutely do not want to cut Thielber. He's the second best reliever the team has! I don't want to compound a weak bullpen by removing one of the strong members in it.

[Mark G]

3 minutes ago, Minny505 said:

This is just measurably and flat out incorrect. Using any of the four defensive metrics available show Miranda being at least his equal, and often his superior, in the field. 

At worst, Miranda is a lateral move on defense.

If both were in the lineup, I would rather have Miranda at 3B with Urshela at DH than the other way around.

I wouldn't.

As I, and others have said in the past, I trust the eye test more than the "metrics".  

There is a reason Gio has played in 138 games, exclusively at one position, when Rocco had alternatives.

Just have to agree to disagree on this one.  

[ashbury]

He's a better than average player. That's what you have to have in order to contend, even if he isn't the superstar that is also required.  Absolutely keep him for 2023, at the arbitration price.  Go from there; a short duration contract extension through 2025 probably wouldn't kill anything even if he slips. 

[Minny505]

I would sign and trade him. I would put him on the proverbial, obviously available, trade block. Shop him around and take the best value for him.

At $10 for one year, he can bring in a decent player or prospect that is more valuable to the team than he is.

Urshela is good, solid player. Kepler-esque in that you need good, solid 2-3 win players to supplement a good core. It's crucial. The problem is that two of the members of the core (Miranda & Arraez) play the same position, with reinforcements coming and Gordon to fill in in a pinch. 

Unless he can play OF, C, SS, or pitch, he is redundant on the roster. Use that surplus value to your advantage and flip him.

[Mark G]

6 minutes ago, Minny505 said:

I would sign and trade him. I would put him on the proverbial, obviously available, trade block. Shop him around and take the best value for him.

At $10 for one year, he can bring in a decent player or prospect that is more valuable to the team than he is.

Urshela is good, solid player. Kepler-esque in that you need good, solid 2-3 win players to supplement a good core. It's crucial. The problem is that two of the members of the core (Miranda & Arraez) play the same position, with reinforcements coming and Gordon to fill in in a pinch. 

Unless he can play OF, C, SS, or pitch, he is redundant on the roster. Use that surplus value to your advantage and flip him.

My head is definitely spinning on this one.    

Love him........trade him.........gotta have a guy like him.........unless he can play another postion, we don't need him........

Going to bed now, I am dizzy   

(Just kidding, I really am just teasing)  

[stringer bell]

Gio is a good third baseman. Do remember also that he was the Yankees’ primary shortstop down the stretch in 2021. Could he fill in until Lewis is ready? 
 

Gio is also part of the problem. He is a plodding runner and grounds into a ton of double plays. The Twins absolutely need to have more team speed and better base running. If they don’t move Urshela, Miranda and Arraez getting runners on and too often unable to score them, waiting for homers that don’t come will continue to frustrate the fan base. 
 

Urshela isn’t ancient, but he is over 30. We are most likely seeing the best he will be. I’d like to see him come back just because every year shows good players will get their at-bats. $10 million isn’t my money. I just don’t think keeping Gio can or should be justification to improve their  pitching staff. 

[rwilfong86]

Extend him. 

[rwilfong86]

2 hours ago, KBJ1 said:

Yeah Arraez makes contact, but why everyone is so in love with his 315 BA is beyond me. He has no speed, power & is way below average in fielding.

He get's on base and rarely strikes out and can also play all over the field. He won't win a Gold Glove anywhere but he is serviceable wherever he plays. 

[CharlieDee]

8 hours ago, William K Johnson said:

Sign him for whatever he wants.    His defense is incredible, he appears to be a great clubhouse guy and hitting is acceptable.   Miranda is not the answer at third.

All good points. And he's one of the few players we had that could be counted on every day.  Keep Gio!

[jmlease1]

2 hours ago, Mark G said:

Again, a bird in the hand.

You have a pretty good 3rd baseman who can hit in your clubhouse.  You have a player who played 3rd base in the minors, but hasn't shown the defense you would like, but sure can hit, and can also be put in another position sitting next to him.  And you have an outfielder/1st baseman who has shown he can't stay healthy enough to count on.  Then you have a bunch of potential prospects who may, or may not, ever spend much time in the above mentioned clubhouse, and certainly not knowing how long it may take for them to get to that clubhouse.  A proven commodity vs. all of the above.  Hmmmmmm...........

Again, a bird in the hand.  

Where am I going wrong?  

by not taking into consideration how much the contract will cost and what the value will be like to the team through the length of it? Since urshela is likely going to get $10M in arbitration this offseason, let's use that as the starting point. Any long-term deal is going to have an AAV of $10M per season. Do we want to be paying Gio Urshela $10M+ at 34? He's got a nice OPS+ of 118 this season, which seems repeatable in 2023...but how excited are you about that contract if/when his production dips to an OPS+ of 101 in 2024? Or his defense slips? or both?

Bird in the hand is fine, but just like young players don't pan out, veteran players get older and produce less. You're talking about locking up 3B for the next 4 years, so you have consider every aspect of this. And if you're the twins and you're going to start from a position of "none of our prospects are going to pan out" I think you're in a lot of trouble. And you're essentially saying "Give Gio 4 years and $40M+, because I don't think Martin, Lee, or Julien will be able to handle 3B by 2024 if we have Miranda already plugged in a 1B." 

 

[Blyleven2011]

10 hours ago, Mark G said:

No brainer.  He is your starting 3rd baseman.  His numbers match up with virtually anyone on the team all told, less power than Buck but hits for a much better average, has numbers overall that match pretty well with Correa and Miranda, and doesn't hit as much for average as Arraez, but has more power.  Absolutely a better defensive 3rd baseman than Miranda, and I am SO sick and tired of saying 10M is too much to pay for a player with his overall performance.  

I would sign him to an extension, maybe 2 years with a team option for a 3rd, and if the team goes south you could trade him with his contract control being a good bargaining chip.  He is a good all around player and not a problem child as far as I have ever read.  Sign him!  

I would sign him too , have Iiked what he brought to the table  ....

Unfortunately I don't think he will be retained with all the other options to fill the position ...

Would be pleasantly surprised if they did keep him  ... 

[dex8425]

8 hours ago, saviking said:

I've been contemplating this for over a month now. I love the heck out of the guy mainly because he's such a great teammate. But I see Miranda as our long term third baseman. Krilloff needs to man first and I don't know where else Miranda is capable of playing other than third base. His slow start kept his batting average down but Miranda has the ability to be an annual three hundred plus hitter with power. For that all he has to do is play an average third base. 

But I'm fine with resigning Ursela for one year, no extension. By 2024 Julian and Lee will be ready and Lewis will be back. 

AK is just a complete wild-card question mark with that wrist. Urshela can be relied upon. I don't think Miranda would ever be even an average third baseman. I bring Gio back, hope that AK can be healthy but you can't count on that at this point. 

[DocBauer]

I absolutely keep Urshela around for that $10M unless there is just a $ crunch where that $ could be spent as part of an even better addition somewhere. You need depth, options, and good ballplayers across the board. And Urshela is a good player. Period.

But he's not great, and not part of the future. He makes great plays and passes my eye test. He's fine defensively, but also fails to make some average plays at times. And that's fine! Some of us are just going to have to agree to disagree in regard to Miranda's defense. I've watched enough of him at 3B to believe he's just fine, with room to get better. And that happens by playing. Just really surprised by a rookie being pigeon holed so quickly as being "bad" because of a couple bad plays and a few more at a position, 1B, that's still relatively new to him. Miranda is OK at 3B and has the better bat. 

But the Urshela, Miranda, and Arraez grouping between 3B/1B/DH worked really well this year and can again. But as much as I like Urshela and want him back, it would only be on the 1yr deal. Miranda is flatly the better bat and part of the future.

All that being said, I'm not 100%,convinced that Miranda WILL BE the 3B of the future. That just might be Lee or Lewis with Miranda doing what he is doing now, playing both 1B and 3B. We ALL hope AK will get right and have the kind of career always projected as a 1B/OF. But until we KNOW, Urshela gives you a quality player to plug in at 3B and in the lower 3rd of the lineup.

I think Martin is destined to be a part of the OF picture with the ability to plug a spot here and there in the INF. That still leaves Miranda, Lewis, Lee, Arraez, and maybe Julien somewhere to cover all across the INF along with Gordon and HOPEFULLY AK. But that's the future and not NOW. Urshela IS a  "bird in the hand", and a pretty good one. 

The one thing I WOULD DO with Urshela in ST is move him around some. He has very limited experience at 1B and 2B, but he's definitely played some SS before, including with the Yankees. I don't know how good/bad/average he is there. But if he's at least average, or "ish" there, it increases his value when putting together a lineup, especially early in 2023 waiting on Lewis, potentially.

If things break right, and Lewis comes back reasonably early, and AK is ready anywhere from early to June-ish, what's the worst case scenario??? You suddenly  have too much talent and not enough room??? Boy, that's a problem I'd love to see the Twins have!

KEEP HIM!  But no extension at this time.

[Otaknam]

I’d sign him for one year for depth and see how the year plays out. Maybe he could be a trade trip mid summer if Lewis is ready. 

[gman]

Sign him as the potential starting third baseman and security blanket. If others show up healthy and playing well, then he could be moved next year at the trade deadline. If he's the worst player on your roster then you're in good shape.

[Brandon]

I think it’s an easy decision to keep him for next season.  He won’t break the bank.  Also he is not the injury issue on this team.  I don’t think he went on the DL at all.  Durability is a big concern at so many other positions, it’s nice we have someone not getting hurt on the team.  Plus he can play other positions too.  So I don’t see how this is even a question.  
 

with Sano, Correa, Bundy, Archer, and Sanchez going to free agency, we have around 50-55 million coming off the books.  Rodon, Rogers, a SS and I suppose a backup C or resign Sanchez to a contract of some kind is ok depending on the price.

[Beast]

He’s just not that good.  But, in true Twins style, he’ll be a probably centerpiece/fixture here for the next 5 years.  Batting third.  This is why there’s no hope.

Hes expendable on a legit contender.  He’s a serviceable starter on a bad team.  That’s just all there is to it.  I couldn’t care less whether he’s on the roster or not.  It means nothing.

If he’s a bench/utility guy, or bottom of roster filler, then I’m listening.

Is the “roster crunch” people are referring to sarcasm?  Or are we referring a crunch in regard to who to send packing first?  

Luis Arraez is OPSing less than .800 this year and for his career, and people talk about him as if he’s an HOFer, transcendent talent. The same “analytics” guys telling you BA doesn’t mean squat, will treat powerless Arraez as if he’s playing the same game as Gwynn in the 80s.  That’s basically our centerpiece going forward. Just one example of delusion.  

Im starting to wonder if it’s just time to just fold this tent and move it to whichever obscure southern city will take it.  Is there even a realistic scenario where we’re even remotely competitive in the next century?  Gio freaking Urshela?

Maybe a little hyperbole, here, but my God is this frustrating.  What an absolute disaster in all facets.  From ownership, to administration, to the players, to the media, to the fans.  It’s literally the meme with the dog sitting at kitchen table with the house on fire sipping his coffee.

[milkytoast]

No brainer to offer arbitration. Then see what happens as the offseason plays out. Starting him, trading him and using him as a reserve are all on the table.

[Mark G]

7 hours ago, DocBauer said:

I absolutely keep Urshela around for that $10M unless there is just a $ crunch where that $ could be spent as part of an even better addition somewhere. You need depth, options, and good ballplayers across the board. And Urshela is a good player. Period.

But he's not great, and not part of the future. He makes great plays and passes my eye test. He's fine defensively, but also fails to make some average plays at times. And that's fine! Some of us are just going to have to agree to disagree in regard to Miranda's defense. I've watched enough of him at 3B to believe he's just fine, with room to get better. And that happens by playing. Just really surprised by a rookie being pigeon holed so quickly as being "bad" because of a couple bad plays and a few more at a position, 1B, that's still relatively new to him. Miranda is OK at 3B and has the better bat. 

But the Urshela, Miranda, and Arraez grouping between 3B/1B/DH worked really well this year and can again. But as much as I like Urshela and want him back, it would only be on the 1yr deal. Miranda is flatly the better bat and part of the future.

All that being said, I'm not 100%,convinced that Miranda WILL BE the 3B of the future. That just might be Lee or Lewis with Miranda doing what he is doing now, playing both 1B and 3B. We ALL hope AK will get right and have the kind of career always projected as a 1B/OF. But until we KNOW, Urshela gives you a quality player to plug in at 3B and in the lower 3rd of the lineup.

I think Martin is destined to be a part of the OF picture with the ability to plug a spot here and there in the INF. That still leaves Miranda, Lewis, Lee, Arraez, and maybe Julien somewhere to cover all across the INF along with Gordon and HOPEFULLY AK. But that's the future and not NOW. Urshela IS a  "bird in the hand", and a pretty good one. 

The one thing I WOULD DO with Urshela in ST is move him around some. He has very limited experience at 1B and 2B, but he's definitely played some SS before, including with the Yankees. I don't know how good/bad/average he is there. But if he's at least average, or "ish" there, it increases his value when putting together a lineup, especially early in 2023 waiting on Lewis, potentially.

If things break right, and Lewis comes back reasonably early, and AK is ready anywhere from early to June-ish, what's the worst case scenario??? You suddenly  have too much talent and not enough room??? Boy, that's a problem I'd love to see the Twins have!

KEEP HIM!  But no extension at this time.

I am a little confused on one or two things.  You say you want to keep Gio, but not long term, because Miranda has the better bat, can improve his defense over time, and is part of the future core.  On the other hand you say Miranda is likely not the 3rd baseman of the future with all the prospects we have coming up, and if AK does get well and takes on 1st base as a primary position, where does that leave Miranda?  

If Miranda has been groomed to be our 3rd baseman of the future, then Gio is only going to warrant the one year arbitration offer; there is no room for both at one position longer term.  But if Miranda is only holding down the position until one of the prospects shows up and takes over, I will go back to the bird in the hand argument.  Gio is a proven commodity, and I will take that over potential prospects coming up in '24 or beyond, because they not only have to develop thoroughly, they have to stay healthy and that is a real trick in this organization.  Miranda can play both 3rd and 1st, and can DH on other days.  And even if AK comes back next year and plays up to his potential, that injury is always one swing away from derailing the whole plan; and he can play the OF as well.  We took a gamble on a 33 year old Donaldson, knowing Miranda was in the wings, but won't take a chance on a 30-31 year old Gio?  I don't think it would take 4 years, but 2 or 3 with an option would be appropriate, at least in this extremely humble observers opinion.  But I will add the price has to be right; no Donaldson esq contract.  

In a different post I threw out the idea that it might be time to trade Polanco while he still has a decent return value.  That opens up a spot for Arraez, and breaks the logjam of 1st and 3rd base players somewhat.  Right now, from what I have seen this year, Urshella is healthier than Polanco and can match his bat.  We have trade value for Palanco, and virtually none for Urshella, with no team control after '23.  Might be a better plan for the immediate future while we wait for the long term future to prove itself.  Just one man's thought process at 2:20 in the morning.