Reevaluating Minnesota’s 3 Young Outfielders

[Cody Christie]

The Twins have seen a trio of talented outfielders move through the farm system in recent years. After a rough 2022 season, what does the future hold for these young players?

Image courtesy of Jordan Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

Alex Kirilloff and Trevor Larnach both made top-100 prospect lists on their way to the big leagues. Minnesota expected both players to be in the middle of the order for the next decade. Over the last 12 months, Matt Wallner has put himself on the prospect map, and he may have altered the team’s future outfield outlook. 

Alex Kirilloff
2022 Stats (45 G): .250/.290/.361 (.651), 7 2B, 3 HR, 36 K, 5 BB
Kirilloff’s 2022 season was plagued by a wrist injury that eventually required surgery. Each of his first two seasons has been cut short because of a wrist injury. His wrist surgery this season is unique in the fact that they are shortening his ulna, which is something that few MLB players have had done. Kirilloff showed signs of being able to play through the injury as he dominated at Triple-A with a 1.106 OPS in 35 games. Eventually, he wasn’t able to play through the injury.  

"Any time you're talking about shaving a bone down or shortening a bone, I mean that's a substantial procedure," Twins manager Rocco Baldelli said. "But we're hopeful that by getting it done now gives us a chance to use the offseason to get right, to start swinging the bat again, to feel good and to start getting ready for next year."

Minnesota hopes Kirilloff is ready for the start of spring training, but there is no guarantee with this type of surgery. Out of these players, Kirilloff was seen as the best prospect, because Baseball America and MLB.com had him in their top-15 prospects leading into the 2019 campaign. Entering his age-25 season, questions will continue to follow him regarding his wrist and whether or not he can get his career back on track. 

Trevor Larnach
2022 Stats (51 G): .231/.306/.406 (.712), 13 2B, 5 HR, 57 K, 18 BB
Like Kirilloff, injuries have impacted Larnach’s first two seasons in the majors. Last year, he posted an .806 OPS through his first 50 games, but things went south. His OPS dropped to .672 before the team eventually demoted him to Triple-A. He eventually revealed that a hand injury had bothered him through part of the season. 

Larnach started the 2022 season well and was one of the team’s best hitters during May as he posted a 1.077 OPS. By the end of June, his performance had suffered and the team announced he’d undergo a bilateral surgical repair to treat the core muscle strain. At the time, the team announced that he’d need about 6-8 weeks before returning, but he learned that he needed more time to recover.  

“You learn really quick that that’s not really even reasonable, especially for a professional athlete trying to play at their highest level,” Larnach said. “It wasn’t really relevant to me. I had to take a step back to look at what I needed to do to feel really good. I did that, and I learned a lot from it."

During his rehab with the Saints, Larnach suffered a wrist injury that will end his season. He seemed close to returning, so this is likely a frustrating end for the 24-year-old. He has been limited to 130 games in his first two seasons, and injuries have stopped him from producing like he did in the minors. 

Matt Wallner
2022 Stats (AA/AAA 128 G): .277/.412/.542 (.953), 32 2B, 4 3B, 27 HR, 170 K, 97 BB 
Unlike Larnach and Kirilloff, Wallner is coming off a tremendous season where he played well in the upper minors and made his big-league debut. In 128 minor league games, Wallner posted a .953 OPS on his way to being named the Twins Daily Minor League Hitter of the Year. Kirilloff (2018) and Larnach (2019) were both previous winners of this award, but Wallner’s stock is on the rise. He’s seen limited action at the big-league level, but he has been on base over 30% of the time and three of his eight hits have been for extra bases. 

Wallner used last year’s Arizona Fall League to make adjustments for the 2022 season. “It’s just cool to bounce ideas off different guys and strategies that they have going into the game, at the plate, in the field, whatever,” Wallner said during last year’s AFL. “I’ve definitely learned a lot since I’ve been out here, even in a short six weeks. So, it’s definitely been good for me.”

All three outfielders will be entering their age-25 season in 2023. Kirilloff and Larnach were seen as better prospects in the minors with both making top-100 lists before debuting. Now, Wallner may have passed them by, especially with the injury concerns facing the other two outfielders. There's no question that Minnesota’s future line-up is better with all three bats being healthy and hitting in the middle of the order. 

Do you think Wallner has passed Kirilloff and Larnach this season? Will all three players be able to stay healthy in 2023? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

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[LastOnePicked]

I've spent a lot of time lately railing on the Twins for blaming their failures on factors out of their control. And I stand by that - a winning team should make its own luck. But, my goodness, the vengeful spirit of those Target Field displaced outfield evergreen trees is fierce. It took out Buxton's career, and then it came for Kirilloff and Larnach. Get a team of exorcists out there pronto. And somebody put some kind of protective amulet around Wallner's neck when he's playing. Sheesh.

 

[DJL44]

Don't count out Celestino. He's younger than this trio and has the best glove.

[DJL44]

Looking at these three, I wouldn't count on Kirilloff to ever play again. Larnach should be the starting LF and Wallner can take Kyle Garlick's spot on the roster. If you could take the best characteristics of Wallner and Kepler you'd have an All-Star.

[Doctor Gast]

Good article Cody. These 3 have great bats and are steadily improving defensively.

Kiriloff is our biggest question mark and his stock has fallen tremendously. No one can really affirm how his wrist will respond.

Larnach's injuries seems less cronic so hopefully he seems to understand his body better & he'll out grow his injury problems.

Wallner will just need to maintain & keep improving.

Kiriloff & Larnach have much higher ceiling than Wallner but still have high hopes in all of them. Kiriloff is by far our best 1B & should see more time there.

Martin is heading for AFL. My hope is he'll play CF and find himself much like Lewis & Wallner. He could also figure into this mix.

With Buxton (hopefully 100%), Kepler (if he's still with us), Gordon & Celestino with Garlic & Cave on stand by. We aren't desparate where we can plug in anyone of these when they are ready, they are worth the wait.

[TwinsDr2021]

I still have high hopes for these 3 but I would feel better if they weren't 25, 25, and 26 and have done something to establish themselves already and the backups weren't Cave, Celestino and Gordon.

[Reptevia]

It’s even odds at best whether Kiriloff ever plays again. Larnach is about as sure. There’s always Wallner!  Cave and Celestino do not belong on a MLB roster.  Gordon is a 4th or 5th guy. I would add Kepler to the last two but for his defense, but Hamilton would be cheaper for defensive replacement. 

[LA VIkes Fan]

Two thoughts. First, it's hard to know if Kirilloff is ever going to be able to play at a high level again. If he can, he has to be an OF/DH. 1B is taken by Miranda and Arraez - both of whom have so far shown themselves to be better hitters and better players. The only way Kirilloff can play much 1B is if we either trade Arraez, make him solely a Utility guy (why we would limit opportunities for a guy hitting .313 with a .789 OPS is a mystery to me), or move Miranda to 3B. The latter means no Urshela, who has probably been  our 3rd or 4th best hitter this year and fields the position pretty well.  Kirilloff is a question mark to begin with and not a guy for whom I think you trade or displace other guys who have performed.  

Second, you saw the hitting stats above for 3 guys who are adequate in the OF. Now, let's look at a guy who's slash line is ..272/.319/.432 (.751) with a 115 OPS+, speed, and who's as good or better in the OF with more talent to improve defensively - NIck Gordon. Again, why would we displace him for any of these 3 very unproven guys. If this year is real for Gordon, always an if for any player, he's is ahead of all 3 especially since he's basically the same age and has both the room and the natural athletic ability to get better. Also, look at the lines  Neither Kirilloff or Larnach has shown much. Yes, we can and should blame injuries but the sad truth is Miranda and Gordon have performed, Kirilloff and Larnach have not. 

Now I WOULD displace Max Kepler with one of these guys. Why? Max can't hit and he's 30 years old. If we don't trade or bench Max or I guess make Gordon the SS, where are these guys going to get the ABs?  The right answer to me is to trade Kepler, put Gordon in LF, have one of the 3 in right (Larnach), one as a DH/occasional 1B/bench bat (Kirilloff if he can play or Wallner),  and one in AAA. They can move up IF they perform at a high level AND Gordon, Miranda, or Arraez fall off. 

That's what the short term future holds for these guys. Larnach and Kirilloff had a shot to take a stranglehold on a starting spot. They didn't. Instead, Miranda and Gordon took advantage of their opportunity and took those spots. Those 2  are now behind and have to beat out 2 other guys who showed they belong on a MLB team in the lineup and may have to beat our the latest new girl in town in Wallner. Critical year coming up for both Larnach and Kirilloff if they want to carve out a long term career with the Twins.    

[chpettit19]

Twins in a tough spot with these 3.

Wallner hasn't played enough for me to pencil him into a starting spot just yet, but if you have him as your 26th man who plays RF/DH I don't think it's the worst spot to be in for the squad. But if he starts the year in AAA as the first in line for a callup I don't think that's bad either. He's on that border, which is nice to have in a young player with control.

Larnach showed he could make some adjustments coming into the year, and was doing well using the whole field before his injuries kicked in. He wasn't lighting the world on fire, and it's 2 straight years of season ending injuries, so he wouldn't be penciled into any sort of starting role for me either. Same as Wallner in that I'd be fine with him as the 26th guy capable of playing LF/RF/DH, or the first callup available from St Paul.

Kirilloff is the toughest for me as I think it's pretty clear he's the most talented out of the 3 in the batter's box, but that wrist just isn't something you can count on. Hopefully he's back swinging a bat before the end of the offseason and he can, and does, give honest reports to the team about how the wrist is feeling. If he's back to himself by January (I don't know his expected timeline, so maybe this isn't even possible) and the team can see him swinging like normal I'd be happy with him at 1B/LF/RF/DH on the opening day roster. But you just can't count on this surgery fixing things completely so I wouldn't go into the offseason penciling him in either.

Left-handed cOF/DH definitely wouldn't be at the top of my wish list for the offseason if I were the Twins FO, but I also wouldn't have that box checked off in pen. What's Conforto going to get in a deal? Seems like he could be a nice pillow contract guy who just needs a year to show he's back. That'd be perfect for the Twins to give them a veteran who could fill that role early, and be a trade option at the deadline if one, or more, of these 3 show they're healthy and talented in the first half. If none of the 3 claim a spot you can look to extend Conforto if he's back to being himself. I'd focus more on bringing in a right-handed OF bat, but I think a solid veteran lefty should also be brought in for a little more insurance on these 3 being ready, and able, to lock down a starting spot.

All too good to just toss aside, but too many question marks to count on. Not an ideal spot to be in.

[Eris]

Larnach reminds me of Michael Cuddyer. Not the most fleet of foot, but what a cannon. Of the 3, he is the only one with positive defensive value this year (data from Fangraphs). 
 

Kirilloff. If he recovers from his wrist injuries/surgeries, his best position is first base. I think he could be an all-star caliber / gold glove first baseman.  After a rough start Miranda has done nicely at first. How would he do at third. 
 

Wallner. Hard for me to get super excited about someone who has averaged greater than 30% K rate in the minors although he did improve this year to 27% in AAA. It looks like he is making the most of his opportunity in the big leagues and it is too bad he wasn’t called up sooner as he is clearly seems to belong in the majors.  His September play has earned him a spot on the team next year.  I am assuming his current K rate will improve. 

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

Two thoughts. First, it's hard to know if Kirilloff is ever going to be able to play at a high level again. If he can, he has to be an OF/DH. 1B is taken by Miranda and Arraez - both of whom have so far shown themselves to be better hitters and better players. The only way Kirilloff can play much 1B is if we either trade Arraez, make him solely a Utility guy (why we would limit opportunities for a guy hitting .313 with a .789 OPS is a mystery to me), or move Miranda to 3B.

The free agent market for 2B is very weak this offseason. Trade Jorge Polanco and move Arraez back to 2B. They have Nick Gordon as a backup and Edouard Julien should be in AAA. This all seems a little off topic.

[notoriousgod71]

The twins should not count on any of them. Larnach and kiriloff haven't proven they can hit consistently in the big leagues but they have proven they can't stay healthy. Same with Buxton.

 

I haven't seen enough of wallner to form an opinion.

 

This team has so many holes (of their own doing) that it's going to be near impossible to put together any type of inspiring roster.

[Dennesey55347]

A couple of 21 year-old call-ups who can put up 90 RBIs or a .380+ OBP in year 1 is too much to expect for the Twins I guess, so yeah, hope at least 2 of these guys prove to be fearless and productive all of 2023.

[tony&rodney]

The Twins need talent. Everyone should be available or there are not any untouchables in the organization if the front office can make a few trades. They should consider healthy players too.

[jimbo92107]

I could see an outfield of Larnach, Martin/Celestino and Wallner. Strong arms in the corners, fast CFs improving at the plate. 

Infield: Urshella the rock at 3rd, Lewis SS, Araez 2B, Miranda 1B. All good hitters, the latter three working to improve their defense.

This would mean that Buxton and Correa go elsewhere, but youth movements are pretty constant in baseball. 

And I haven't even mentioned Brooks Lee, who will probably force his way onto the mlb lineup sometime next season...

[roger]

I see too many comments declaring the likelihood that AK may never play again.  It is true that his surgery isn’t common for baseball players.  But that doesn’t mean it can’t work.  Don’t know how many doctors we have here today, but maybe one can offer some insight.  The truth is WE don’t know anything  about this surgery.  But we aren’t the patient or the Twins.

what is fact is that many people believed AK to be one of the best hitters in all of the minor leagues before his injury.  Didn’t he have the second best stats to that superstar now playing for Toronto?  So what we do know is this kid was a very special talent.  I am willing to wait until spring training when we will know how he is doing before declaring his career is over.

[RpR]

19 minutes ago, jimbo92107 said:

I could see an outfield of Larnach, Martin/Celestino and Wallner. Strong arms in the corners, fast CFs improving at the plate. 

Infield: Urshella the rock at 3rd, Lewis SS, Araez 2B, Miranda 1B. All good hitters, the latter three working to improve their defense.

This would mean that Buxton and Correa go elsewhere, but youth movements are pretty constant in baseball. 

And I haven't even mentioned Brooks Lee, who will probably force his way onto the mlb lineup sometime next season...

Won't happen; Wallner maybe in two or three years, Celestino is not improving and is not that good except as a back-up, Larnach  has not proven he is major league level yet.

Twins rookie defense is still a gamble at best and big hole at worst.

[Spth]

They will be healthy and ready to go. Larnach in LF. Wallner 4th outfielder. AK at first. Trade Arraez for a catcher. Miranda backup 3B, 1B and DH. Gordon super utility. Sign Correa. 2023 is going to be a year of health where everyone has solid, career years. Why not? 

[DocBauer]

Some excellent comments about who and where and numbers that add up to too many potential players for every spot. EXAMPLE: Kirilloff at 1B while still having Arraez and Miranda, etc. But too much talent is never a bad problem. So I am focused solely on the 3 young OF in general, not fitting EVERYONE in to a 26 man roster. 

Kirilloff, IMO, is the very best of them all IF he can get RIGHT. I'm uneducated enough to have no idea, but smart enough to understand his latest procedure makes real sense. I've seen nothing to show me he can't be a solid OF defensively, but even in SSS, he just looks so natural at 1B. No reason he can't be a great 1B who can play a solid corner OF. From pundits to scouts everyone seems to believe he has everything needed to be a high quality hitter and power producer who is damn good, if not special. Unfortunately, it's about health. And my fingers are cramping up saying this, but I think he's 50-50 ever realizing his potential. But damn, you just don't give up on his potential even if it takes a little time to rehab and get RIGHT.

On the opposite end of the spectrum, nothing about Larnach's injuries speaks of a chronic nature. He's flashed when healthy. I've always believed he was just slightly below AK in regard to potential. Always thought they'd be close in ability, with AK just having more of an overall "IT" factor that would make him a slightly higher OPS player, with each similar. If you read Larnach's draft profiles, as I did, and re-read them this year, as I did, you would see about 7 out of 10 saying he had solid defensive ability but simply lacked great range. Only a few profiles ever stated they believed he'd be slow or below average. I believe what we've seen so far is solid with a great arm and room to yet improve. I was pleasantly surprised to see how well he hung in against LH pitching this year. His biggest issue, and a pretty small one at that, is he still needs to learn to develop pull power. He HAS good power, but mostly the opposite way or dead center. If he can learn to pull better, who knows? Might be talking legitimate 30HR production. Just, please, no more weird injuries.

Wallner has impressed the hell out of me this year, and I'm not even talking about his SSS with the Twins. He used the AFL to produce a 2022 season in the minors similar to what Miranda did in 2021. He produced tremendous numbers at both AA and AAA...with a couple weeks of adjustment between the two levels...and raised his BB and lowered his SO numbers almost month to month. I wanted him up with the Twins to begin August as a hopeful potential shot in the arm. It happened too late. And while it's SSS to be sure, you can see the talent and potential. He's got a cannon for an arm, same as Larnach. And I've been surprised about his movement in the field and on the basepaths. He's a large man, but slim and long legged. He's absolutely an athlete and not slow. I think he does need to refine his defensive game for better routes, and know when to pull up. He has to know which base to throw to and when. And he has to learn the nuances of Target Field and other parks. What young player doesn't? 

I'm still expecting Kepler to be a Twin come 2023. He's a league average producer offensively and a great defensive player. And we have enough questions about how healthy and prepared all 3 of these young OF are before we jettison a solid MLer like Kepler. (I understand if he could be part of a great deal and moved). 

And I'm going to hold out hope that all 3 will be healthy for 2023, especially AK. And it won't dismiss my optimism if Kirilloff needs a little milb time to ramp up. And my optimism of Wallner won't be dimmed if the Twins keep Max in RF and let Wallner begin the year with St Paul despite his great September. Remember,  never get too high or too low about ST or September. 

But I also won't be disappointed if the Twins just "go for it" and pen both Larnach and Wallner in the OF and move Kepler as part of a deal. I just don't expect it right now.

As an aside, and beating the proverbial dead horse yet again, however they settle on the opening day roster,  the FO absolutely has to add a quality RH hitting OF with some pedigree! You just can't bank on the still developing Celestino as being ready to assume that regular role. And as much as I like Gordon in his role, he's still LH. We need a RH bat to compliment what we have, and what we could have.

 

[miller761]

Too many left handed bats.

[tony&rodney]

All three still have a ways to go. There is talent but the rough edges are pretty obvious. It might be a little difficult to see all three struggle but then again maybe the Twins are due for a break. 

I'm thinking Kirilloff needs to eliminate the doubt and rust and the Twins need him at 1B.

Larnach and Wallner need to have a few hundred balls hit to them in every conceivable fashion this offseason, about four days each week. I'm thinking they can hit but need to become outfielders as opposed to DH material.

Miranda same (3B).

It will be interesting to see what the Twins have in mind for 2023 because another lackluster team would put attendance well below 20,000 per game. 

[Karbo]

As it stands now I envision the outfield to be Gordon, Buxton, and Kepler to begin the year. AK will need to prove the wrist is sound in St.Paul. Larnach will probably make the roster unless he can't shake the rust off. Wallner gets some more development time in St.Paul.

I think a rotation of Arraez, Miranda, and Urshela between 1B, 3B and DH

With the rule changes next year teams need to be mobile up the middle. Thats why it makes sense to keep Polo at 2nd, and they will really need a good ss like Correa.

I see a big hole at catcher. Jeffers will probably be embaressed by teams running at will. I wouldn't mind seeing Sanchez back on a much lower salary.

We have a whole stable of starters coming for next year. Gray, Ryan, Ober, Mahle, Paddack, Winder, and Varland. 1 or 2 of those could fit into the pen as long relievers, something we didn't have this year, and it hurt us. 

In the pen there is Duran, Jax, Lopez, Thielbar, and Moran. add in 1 or 2 of the starters, and guys on the IL this year and you have the makings of a pretty god Staff!

Find a good catcher and ss in the FA market and IMHO this good be a really good team next year.

I still would love to see them work out a deal for Correa!

 

 

[roger]

12 hours ago, Spth said:

They will be healthy and ready to go. Larnach in LF. Wallner 4th outfielder. AK at first. Trade Arraez for a catcher. Miranda backup 3B, 1B and DH. Gordon super utility. Sign Correa. 2023 is going to be a year of health where everyone has solid, career years. Why not? 

I continue to be amazed when I read comments suggesting the Twins trade Arraez.  He is the best hitter the Twins have had since Joe Mauer.  Many from the organization compare him to Carew.  A generational talent, yet move him out for a catcher, or whomever. 

[saviking]

No one can predict future health but all three have equal promise in my eyes ... 

[joefish]

22 hours ago, Reptevia said:

It’s even odds at best whether Kiriloff ever plays again. Larnach is about as sure. There’s always Wallner!  Cave and Celestino do not belong on a MLB roster.  Gordon is a 4th or 5th guy. I would add Kepler to the last two but for his defense, but Hamilton would be cheaper for defensive replacement. 

I would not like to pitch with that list of outfielders playing behind me. Too many errors and poor decisions. 

[DJL44]

2 hours ago, roger said:

I continue to be amazed when I read comments suggesting the Twins trade Arraez.  He is the best hitter the Twins have had since Joe Mauer.  Many from the organization compare him to Carew.  A generational talent, yet move him out for a catcher, or whomever. 

I wouldn't trade Arraez for a catcher. For a top of the rotation starter or a starting SS with 3 (or more) seasons of team control like Arraez? Yes. That's a short list: Dylan Cease, Freddy Peralta, Andrew Civale, Bo Bichette.

[PatPfund]

We keep thinking OF is a strength, yet for the second straight year we've had a parade of overmatched AAA players/people 'learning on the job' out there.

LF is a grab-bag, CF is 'who is filling in for Byron' and RF is the injured/weak-hitting Max and more wannabees. 

Not counting on Alex (I'd love to be surprised, but...), Wallner has promise (albeit on a very short track), Larnach looks solid. Celestino might have talent, but the most charitable view is he got jumped too fast from AA (the less favorable opinion is he is one of the least intelligent players I've seen in a while with a pop-less/low average bat). Gordon looks better than all of them right now.

If I were the Twins, I'd add at least one serious (as in starting) OF, and let the rest duke it out. If they can't push Max to be either much better, or into a reserve role, I doubt this team will be contending for the playoffs next year.

[Rosterman]

I was not expecting Wallner to become a threat to crack the outfield until sometime in 2023. But right now, he could possib,ly do it out of spring training.

The question is: what to do with Max Kepler. Do we trade, cut ties, whatever?

Celestino still shows signs of being overmatched. Again, 2022 was supposed to be his time to get lots of regular play at AAA in centerfield. He is, right now, the backup for Buxton.

So many of us hoped Kirilloff would grab (and hold down) first base. That is up in the air, and the Twins, if they resign Gio, has that bag covered with Arraez and Miranda.

Lewis and Martin are also outfield candidates. But someone needs to play shortstop in 2023. The advancement of Brooks Lee will be fun to watch. 

Everyone else is up to three years away from beining added to the 40-man, so 2026 we could start seeing a whole new look in the Twins outfield going forth.

 

[ashbury]

2 hours ago, DJL44 said:

I wouldn't trade Arraez for a catcher. For a top of the rotation starter or a starting SS with 3 (or more) seasons of team control like Arraez? Yes. That's a short list: Dylan Cease, Freddy Peralta, Andrew Civale, Bo Bichette.

Well sure, but no such offers are going to be forthcoming from another front office, not even if we throw in Brian Duensing as a sweetener.

Turn the perspective around: would you have traded 2004 Johan Santana for, um, Marcus Giles, who hit .311 that year?

[Fire Dan Gladden]

Ummm..... Sample Size anyone?

Mike Trout, Lance Berkman, Bernie Williams, Mike Schmidt...  How about a little closer to home:  Jason Kubel, Justin Morneau, Harmon Killebrew

I could go on and on.  All had slow starts to their career.   Good thing no one wrote them off so early.  30-40 games is not enough time to make a decision either way.  Factor in the injuries and it makes it even harder.