Twins Facing a Shakeup Without Massive 2023

[Greglw3]

On 9/23/2022 at 2:18 PM, LastOnePicked said:

I'm confused - didn't we have this exact same conversation at the end of last season? What exactly do we expect to see change? We know who these folks are, and we clearly see their results. I don't think those results warrant another year of futility.

If we fans don't push aggressively for change NOW - at the very least a new manager + pitching and hitting coaches - I fear we'd be making the same exact mistake as sticking with Colome or Pagan. Yes, there was past success with both, but the results now are pretty clearly damaging the team's chances at winning. 

Take what you wrote and frame it. It keeps being give them one more year.

[Greglw3]

17 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

How you feel inside is what matters. 

It’s a beautiful day! You’re only as Pretty as you feel inside.

[MABB1959]

On 9/23/2022 at 1:18 PM, LastOnePicked said:

I'm confused - didn't we have this exact same conversation at the end of last season? What exactly do we expect to see change? We know who these folks are, and we clearly see their results. I don't think those results warrant another year of futility.

If we fans don't push aggressively for change NOW - at the very least a new manager + pitching and hitting coaches - I fear we'd be making the same exact mistake as sticking with Colome or Pagan. Yes, there was past success with both, but the results now are pretty clearly damaging the team's chances at winning. 

We have this conversation EVERY single year.  2-3 years ago was supposed to be their window of opportunity but instead every year is a total rebuild.  
 

[jmlease1]

On 9/23/2022 at 1:18 PM, LastOnePicked said:

I'm confused - didn't we have this exact same conversation at the end of last season? What exactly do we expect to see change? We know who these folks are, and we clearly see their results. I don't think those results warrant another year of futility.

If we fans don't push aggressively for change NOW - at the very least a new manager + pitching and hitting coaches - I fear we'd be making the same exact mistake as sticking with Colome or Pagan. Yes, there was past success with both, but the results now are pretty clearly damaging the team's chances at winning. 

Are we having the same discussion from the end of last season? Outside of injuries, I'm not sure we are. Except for the people who want baseball to go back to some version of what they think they remember from days of yore...those people are always having the same conversation in pretty much every thread, and likely will be having the same conversation for years to come, because baseball ain't gonna go back to what they think it was any time soon (if ever).

We're not asking the same questions about the rotation for next season; end of last season it was "who the hell is going to start for this team", and this year the real question is "can this group be healthy enough?" We were asking "do we sign Buxton or trade him" and now we're asking "how do we manage it for the 30-70 games he might/will miss?"

And as frustrating as this season has been, it's not the same as last year. Last season, we had a team that fell apart early and threw itself in the dumpster fire. They were never in the hunt, and looked like the last place team they were. This season is a different kind of disappointment; an injury-fueled collapse after a pretty good start that had them on pace to win the division, even with the flaws that were obvious for all to see. But they addressed those at the deadline...and it didn't work out or matter, because injuries and some poor performance (and bad luck) wiped them out.

being 20-25 in 1-run games is partly about ability, but it's partly about luck. Facing lefty pitching at a time when your RH hitters are all hurt (hi, Texas!) is bad luck. Going 1-11 against your division rival in close games is really bad luck. We're 6-13 vs Cleveland this season, but the runs scored is dead even. (Cleveland is 26-16 in 1-run games this year. yes, they're playing well, but that's also luck) I mean, the Twins were not a good team in 2021, but they were 25-19 in 1-run games. 

 

[USAFChief]

27 minutes ago, jmlease1 said:

Are we having the same discussion from the end of last season? Outside of injuries, I'm not sure we are. Except for the people who want baseball to go back to some version of what they think they remember from days of yore...those people are always having the same conversation in pretty much every thread, and likely will be having the same conversation for years to come, because baseball ain't gonna go back to what they think it was any time soon (if ever).

We're not asking the same questions about the rotation for next season; end of last season it was "who the hell is going to start for this team", and this year the real question is "can this group be healthy enough?" We were asking "do we sign Buxton or trade him" and now we're asking "how do we manage it for the 30-70 games he might/will miss?"

And as frustrating as this season has been, it's not the same as last year. Last season, we had a team that fell apart early and threw itself in the dumpster fire. They were never in the hunt, and looked like the last place team they were. This season is a different kind of disappointment; an injury-fueled collapse after a pretty good start that had them on pace to win the division, even with the flaws that were obvious for all to see. But they addressed those at the deadline...and it didn't work out or matter, because injuries and some poor performance (and bad luck) wiped them out.

being 20-25 in 1-run games is partly about ability, but it's partly about luck. Facing lefty pitching at a time when your RH hitters are all hurt (hi, Texas!) is bad luck. Going 1-11 against your division rival in close games is really bad luck. We're 6-13 vs Cleveland this season, but the runs scored is dead even. (Cleveland is 26-16 in 1-run games this year. yes, they're playing well, but that's also luck) I mean, the Twins were not a good team in 2021, but they were 25-19 in 1-run games. 

 

The "pretty good start" that lasted 40ish games and "had them on pace to win the division" was an accurate picture of the team, but the 90 loss pace since mid-May is just bad luck, and injuries.

We're 6-13 against Cleveland, despite the same number of runs scored, and its just luck. Not managerial skill in close games. Nothing to be done.

 

Sure.

 

 

[ashbury]

Last year we were assured that the fall from two consecutive division titles was just some bad luck.  Another season later, and now we're being told, give 'em time.  Personally, I've seen enough to want to shop around for other eager and talented underlings from some other FO to guide the team if we're talking rebuild.  Although, in fairness, if I don't care for this FO, it is how we got them 6 years ago.

[LastOnePicked]

2 hours ago, jmlease1 said:

Going 1-11 against your division rival in close games is really bad luck.

I appreciate the thoughtful response, but I couldn't possibly disagree more vehemently with this statement. A winning mentality makes its own luck, or it makes change when it falls short. I mean, isn't it funny how only the "lucky" teams seem to prioritize their depth, build a strong bullpen, can hit with RISP, and don't stick with a failing closer?

I think luck has stunningly little to do with where the Twins now find themselves.

[Blyleven2011]

The front office has not shown me that they know when to hold them or know when to fold them  ...

Yes they have tried to build a winner and have held on to players and prospects  , they have never been  known when to trade a player at their highest value  ,,, kepler for example who i love his defense but his hitting  is as bad as a second string catcher had extreme value but fo thought he was part of the future because they are trying to build a winning team , he had bad averages before 2019 and then a career year ( heck they all had career years but the fo didn't recognize it and held on to players that  were likely to underachieve the following year rather than trading at their highest value  ) ...

Berrios maybe was traded at his highest value but the jury is out on the return  ...

This front office now has to prove to me at least that it can recognize  a players talent and if they are part of the future and keep them,,, if not trade them at their highest values  ...

For those that like analytics ,  great ...

For those that Don't like analytics , great ...

For those that would like to see small ball fundamentals with analytics  you are great too ..

Mix it up and add some excitement  because it has turned into a boring game the fo has put on the field ...

[Blyleven2011]

1 hour ago, USAFChief said:

The "pretty good start" that lasted 40ish games and "had them on pace to win the division" was an accurate picture of the team, but the 90 loss pace since mid-May is just bad luck, and injuries.

We're 6-13 against Cleveland, despite the same number of runs scored, and its just luck. Not managerial skill in close games. Nothing to be done.

 

Sure.

 

 

Sarcasm chief ???  ... 

[jmlease1]

3 hours ago, LastOnePicked said:

I appreciate the thoughtful response, but I couldn't possibly disagree more vehemently with this statement. A winning mentality makes its own luck, or it makes change when it falls short. I mean, isn't it funny how only the "lucky" teams seem to prioritize their depth, build a strong bullpen, can hit with RISP, and don't stick with a failing closer?

I think luck has stunningly little to do with where the Twins now find themselves.

Which came first, the chicken or the egg? When teams win lots of close games, people talk about their "winning mentality". When players hit with runners in scoring position they're described as "clutch". There's been some pretty good studies over the years that suggests that the variance in team's W-L record in 1-run games is mostly about luck. The Twins this season are a better team than last year's edition, for a variety of reasons (and are guaranteed to finish with a better record). But last year's team was substantially better in 1-run games. Did last year's team have more of a winning mentality than this year's team? 

Frequently a hallmark of a good team is some good luck. Are they lucky because they're good or are they good because they're lucky? (and injuries are part of that luck) I'd argue it's always a bit of both.

[RpR]

39 minutes ago, jmlease1 said:

Frequently a hallmark of a good team is some good luck. Are they lucky because they're good or are they good because they're lucky? (and injuries are part of that luck) I'd argue it's always a bit of both.

Yep, in 1953 Ted Williams was the luckiest ball player in the World,?

[Rosterman]

On 9/24/2022 at 8:25 AM, Russ said:

I would love to see an anonymous evaluation from other MLB managers and GM's opinion of the Twins.  I wouldn't be pretty.

Well, for starters, I love how some teams started running the bases on the Twins. They discovered the pitchers were inexperienced and the catching awful.

[LastOnePicked]

2 hours ago, jmlease1 said:

There's been some pretty good studies over the years that suggests that the variance in team's W-L record in 1-run games is mostly about luck.

I'm sorry, but you're saying there are credible studies that validate the concept of "luck"? You're pulling my leg, right?

Let's not get carried away with the idea that the 2022 Twins are a huge improvement of the 2021 Twins. They may end only one game better, record-wise, and at least the 2021 Twins could beat a team like the Astros.

I try to think about baseball the way I want to see Twins leadership think. And from that perspective, I would NEVER, EVER hand over my team's fate to the concept of "luck." You have to fight with whatever tools/skills you have to make your own luck.

[tony&rodney]

A massive shakeup? The Twins owners are mostly reluctant to change, so it doesn't seem likely.

[Aggies7]

I’m a 35 year old man and have seen 6 twins playoff wins. Six. Too young to understand ‘91

We will never seriously compete until we build a new stadium

[farmerguychris]

15 hours ago, Aggies7 said:

I’m a 35 year old man and have seen 6 twins playoff wins. Six. Too young to understand ‘91

We will never seriously compete until we build a new stadium

Hmmmm - What kind of stadium do we need?

[rv78]

"Levine is a smart general manager who has made some shrewd moves. Baldelli can run a clubhouse and has orchestrated difficult decisions."

Can you explain these comments in greater detail? If trading for injured players is shrewd then I guess you are correct. If setting a different lineup every day and pulling pitchers after twice through a lineup is running a clubhouse and making difficult decisions then I guess you are correct. Contrary to your statements IMO, the FO has done nothing shrewd and most any other GM tries to avoid what they seem to overlook and the manager doesn't know how to deviate from a plan regardless of the in-game situation so he is taking the easy way out.