What’s Next for Twins Manager Rocco Baldelli?

[bean5302]

I don't think Baldelli goes unless Falvey and Levine also go. I'm not a fan of Baldelli, but I think this article is pretty reasonable. Baldelli isn't to blame for a bullpen weak on talent to support the front office TTO pitching strategy. Baldelli isn't to blame for the recent IL mess (Kepler, Buxton and Polanco out at the same time). Baldelli is to blame for the decisions made on which bullpen arms to use and whether or not the starters should have been allowed to pitch an extra inning to help the bullpen. Baldelli is responsible for the lack of solid fundamental play.

As far as Baldelli's great relationship with the players, I doubt the rotation veterans or Jhoan Duran would jump on board the Baldelli lover train, but I honestly don't know. It's not like the players are going to publicly throw their manager under the bus as a group. I don't think liking your manager is as important as respecting your manager.

[Minny505]

1 hour ago, The_Phantom said:

How is it “more than evident he gets along with his players and had their respect”??

Sonny gray was asked if he thinks the twins are still a great fit like he said in spring training, he gave a painfully long pause and said he wants to pitch deeper into games.

just last night the reports are “Joe Ryan is not mad at Rocco for pulling him” 
 
not mad is pretty key wording. He’s not on board. He’s not thrilled with it. He doesn’t like it. But he’s going to publicly say he’s not mad at the manager.   
 
sorry I don’t think it’s more than evident at all that he’s good at personnel management. I think it’s very evident his pitching  staff is bitter at the way they’re handled

Of course he's not mad at the messenger. That's nonsense.

He probably is frustrated with the FO for the directive Baldelli has to follow. 

[chpettit19]

16 minutes ago, Minny505 said:

Huh? This seems like a serious hawt taik. 

The expectation on April 1st was 79 to 84 wins. They are probably going to nail their projections, despite the efforts of Emilio Pagan to sabotage their over/under.

The general rule of thumb is that when a manager hits projections, he's not the problem.

Is he Francona, Cash, or Roberts? No. But how many managers routinely outplay their projections year after year? Those guys generally get lifetime contracts with their current squad and are NEVER available and finding the next one means sifting thru far worse than Baldelli to get their. 

Funny thing is that Cash and Roberts would be just as hated here as Rocco since they manage just as strictly by spreadsheets as Rocco does. People poopoo the 2019 season because of "the Bomba Squad" and all those homeruns "make it easy to manage" while ignoring that they also had a top 10 pitching staff that year that Rocco apparently didn't ruin single handedly. Yet Roberts gets credit for managing successful teams full of All Stars and MVPs. I don't think Roberts is any better than Rocco. And the Rays are the leaders in managing by "the plan" so I hope fans who don't like Rocco don't want Cash here. Francona is a better mix of following the analytics and in-game feel. But it's just as easy to manage a pitching staff full of stars as it is to manage a lineup like the Bomba Squad. He hasn't turned the Guardians into offensive juggernauts with some sort of magical managerial potion. Managers just can't turn bad baseball players into good ones.

[Minny505]

2 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Funny thing is that Cash and Roberts would be just as hated here as Rocco since they manage just as strictly by spreadsheets as Rocco does. People poopoo the 2019 season because of "the Bomba Squad" and all those homeruns "make it easy to manage" while ignoring that they also had a top 10 pitching staff that year that Rocco apparently didn't ruin single handedly. Yet Roberts gets credit for managing successful teams full of All Stars and MVPs. I don't think Roberts is any better than Rocco. And the Rays are the leaders in managing by "the plan" so I hope fans who don't like Rocco don't want him here. Francona is a better mix of following the analytics and in-game feel. But it's easy just as easy to manage a pitching staff full of stars as it is to manage a lineup like the Bomba Squad. He hasn't turned the Guardians into offensive juggernauts with some sort of magical managerial potion. Managers just can't turn bad baseball players into good ones.

Agreed on the fans that are wanting Rocco gone don't want Cash, but I would be surprised if Falvey didn't go even more extreme with 2.0. 

That's why I say, think thru the likely consequences of using one of your three Twins Genie wishes on Rocco getting fired.

If you think that Falvey would view the Twins failure being due to Rocco not pushing the boundaries of "the plan", as you put it, you are very, very mistaken. He's going to double down with 2.0.

[Squirrel]

3 minutes ago, Minny505 said:

Agreed on the fans that are wanting Rocco gone don't want Cash, but I would be surprised if Falvey didn't go even more extreme with 2.0. 

That's why I say, think thru the likely consequences of using one of your three Twins Genie wishes on Rocco getting fired.

If you think that Falvey would view the Twins failure being due to Rocco not pushing the boundaries of "the plan", as you put it, you are very, very mistaken. He's going to double down with 2.0.

So, you're saying ... better the devil you know than the devil you don't  

[The_Phantom]

10 minutes ago, Minny505 said:

Of course he's not mad at the messenger. That's nonsense.

He probably is frustrated with the FO for the directive Baldelli has to follow. 

I don’t think there’s anything “nonsense” about it. You are making a LOT of assumptions that the players A. See Rocco as a FO puppet and B. forgive Rocco for following through with their nonsense.  
 
the bigger issue last night wasn’t pulling Ryan at 107 pitches, it was leaving Moran in there to blow the no hitter when he couldn’t control his pitches. Rocco has some blame in that and I find it hard to believe the players dont blame him at least some 

[RedBull34]

I find it humorous that people are pissed off that Rocco for pulling Ryan last night and wanting a better manager (like Roberts) when:

Baldelli pulled a rookie pitcher trying to throw a no-no at a pitch count of 106.

Roberts pulled a veteran trying to throw a PERFECT GAME at a pitch count of 80!!!

I would prefer both had been left in as I think the game is getting away from the history part of the game, but seriously.  How does this compute?

[Blyleven2011]

In my opinion Rocco's head is not in the game  , his coaches too ....

Last year Wes Johnson went to the mound and made a visit , one Batter later Rocco walks out of the dugout to visit berrios  and because that was the second visit in the inning , Rocco had to remove berrios when he had no intention to ...

This year during a calamity bench clearing  , against Houston  I think,  Rocco  walked to the mound and umpires signaled mound visit number 1 , Rocco didn't see it and his coaches didn't either , Sanchez walks the next batter and out walks maki for a mound visit  ,,, everyone tried to stop maki  ( umpires  ) but his head was planted to the ground  , visit number 2 and Sanchez had to be removed   ...

In my opinion  if Rocco and coaches heads are not in the game then how do you expect the players heads to be in the game  ....

That was the last straw for a defining moment for me that Rocco and coaches are not capable to succeed in winning baseball games ...

If the fans are frustrated  , the players could also be frustrated  but keep it in house ... 

 

[Doctor Gast]

17 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

My guess for what is next with Rocco is that he will meet with the FO and they will talk about minor tweaks to their approach and he will be managing the Twins in 23 and it will be very similiar to the last three years (I don't mean results, but that wouldn't surprise me, I mean style, game decisions, etc..)

This is my guess also. In 2019, Twins were able to win the division eventhough their poor INF anchored by misplaced SS Polanco, no capable CF sub to injury prone Buxton and no long relief to balance out the gap between SP & closer. 2020 management improved INF with Donaldson but left Polanco at SS. In 2021, moved Polanco off SS. 

In 2022, improved CF back-up depth imensely, upgraded SS w/ Correa and suggested "piggy-back" system was very promising, but never was followed through. Long relief (piggy-back) was especially needed due to a demolished BP because of the Rogers trade. Buxton carried the team the 1st half yet the BP lost too many games. Trading Garver demolished our catching depth, that was never really adressed. Not addressing these 2 areas were very dentrimental for our season success.

Slow as it may be,  management is making progress. So I believe Baldelli will stay around in 2023. As it seems that management can only work on one problem at a time, they will double down again on Jeffers. But if they install long relief & use it regularly, this will greatly help our pitching problems. If they don't greatly demolish another vital area.

[chpettit19]

16 minutes ago, RedBull34 said:

I find it humorous that people are pissed off that Rocco for pulling Ryan last night and wanting a better manager (like Roberts) when:

Baldelli pulled a rookie pitcher trying to throw a no-no at a pitch count of 106.

Roberts pulled a veteran trying to throw a PERFECT GAME at a pitch count of 80!!!

I would prefer both had been left in as I think the game is getting away from the history part of the game, but seriously.  How does this compute?

I don't want Roberts, but that Kershaw game was the first week of the season after a shortened spring training with a guy who hasn't held up in recent years who they wanted to be around for the whole season, and, more importantly, the postseason. They're very different situations. So it computes pretty easily.

[D.C Twins]

A simple thought exercise... Would any other MLB team be excited to swoop Rocco up as their manager if we fired him?

I strongly believe the answer is 'no.' 

He does not have agile and creative thinking during games that incorporates aspects that cannot be captured on spreadsheets.

He also appears to have no range as a leader. Good leaders alter approach as needed based on the clubhouse atmosphere to optimize performance over a long season. He seems to relish his own 'consistent approach' 

Good leaders do not use one approach.

My prediction:

He will still be here next year and then he will be fired after next year because the FO will need to do so to save their jobs.

He will then go on to manage exactly 0 more MLB teams, BUT WILL go on to be a fantastic bench coach or front office piece where a steady and methodical approach is a good thing. 

[BryGuy62]

Might be 9ff topic but the Orioles who play in the toughest division in baseball have a better record then the Twins who play in the worst. C'mon Rocco

[SpicyGarvSauce]

With the current FO (Falvey & Lavine), no chance Rocco is let go. They are a package deal - so either the Pohlads step in and clean house, or the same regime will be back (unless they decide to go elsewhere on their own).

The whole coaching staff needs a revamp - from the hitting/pitching coaches to the guys running the bases. There's a reason why Jayce Tingler got fired by SD...what made the Twins think he was capable of being a competent bench coach?

[SpicyGarvSauce]

The Twins are essentially being managed by a computer & analytic system...Rocco is just the face of such.

[lukeduke1980]

If a person or staff is most associated with health/injuries then I assume then he or they will take the fall for 2022.  It would likely be a longer route of logic for that to be Rocco.  It could still happen, I'd be surprised.   That will be the 2022 narrative though.

[IndianaTwin]

"What's Next for Twins Manager Rocco Baldelli?" seems like a great title for an article.

 

When the season is actually over.

[chpettit19]

27 minutes ago, SpicyGarvSauce said:

With the current FO (Falvey & Lavine), no chance Rocco is let go. They are a package deal - so either the Pohlads step in and clean house, or the same regime will be back (unless they decide to go elsewhere on their own).

The whole coaching staff needs a revamp - from the hitting/pitching coaches to the guys running the bases. There's a reason why Jayce Tingler got fired by SD...what made the Twins think he was capable of being a competent bench coach?

There was a reason Terry Francona was fired by the Phillies... what made the Red Sox think he'd be capable of being a competent manager? There was a reason Terry Francona was fired by the Red Sox (technically they just didn't pick up his option)...what made the Guardians think he was capable of being a competent manager?

[RpR]

35 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

There was a reason Terry Francona was fired by the Phillies... what made the Red Sox think he'd be capable of being a competent manager? There was a reason Terry Francona was fired by the Red Sox (technically they just didn't pick up his option)...what made the Guardians think he was capable of being a competent manager?

They throw the bones .

[jimbo92107]

If Baldi's win percentage is .533, half a point higher than Gardy , Kelly or Molitor, even with all the injuries, doesn't that make him one of the team's all-time great managers?

What he has done this season is almost the equivalent of an NFL coach losing his entire O line, then coaching up a bunch of rookies to play just about as well as his starters. Sure, you could simply state, "Well, he didn't win the division," but that's pretty ignorant. 

[jmlease1]

59 minutes ago, jimbo92107 said:

If Baldi's win percentage is .533, half a point higher than Gardy , Kelly or Molitor, even with all the injuries, doesn't that make him one of the team's all-time great managers?

What he has done this season is almost the equivalent of an NFL coach losing his entire O line, then coaching up a bunch of rookies to play just about as well as his starters. Sure, you could simply state, "Well, he didn't win the division," but that's pretty ignorant. 

A lot of the reasons for firing Baldelli seem to have a lot more to do with style than substance. There's plenty of projection of things that are organizational decisions that Baldelli is a part of, but not necessarily the sole decider of. Which is also where we get the spurious arguments that Baldelli only "manages by spreadsheet" or "takes his instruction from a computer printout", as if he has no agency or wasn't an elite athlete basically his entire life. If the baseball is not played the way they believe baseball should be played, then it must be Rocco's fault.

I remain in the camp of "Meh, Rocco's fine. Probably won't make much difference to change unless a) we manage to land one of the perishingly few truly great managers, or b) the front office is relieved as well."

[USAFChief]

38 minutes ago, jmlease1 said:

A lot of the reasons for firing Baldelli seem to have a lot more to do with style than substance. There's plenty of projection of things that are organizational decisions that Baldelli is a part of, but not necessarily the sole decider of. Which is also where we get the spurious arguments that Baldelli only "manages by spreadsheet" or "takes his instruction from a computer printout", as if he has no agency or wasn't an elite athlete basically his entire life. If the baseball is not played the way they believe baseball should be played, then it must be Rocco's fault.

I remain in the camp of "Meh, Rocco's fine. Probably won't make much difference to change unless a) we manage to land one of the perishingly few truly great managers, or b) the front office is relieved as well."

So on the one hand, we crow about the new analytical approach of the front office and manager, claim a new manager won't matter since he's just implementing the "analytics" sent down from above, 

AND 

On the other hand, we look down our nose at any fans who claim Rocco is just managing by analytics. 

 

Heh.

 

 

[farmerguychris]

Hi future should be here next year.  He can't control injuries.  To succeed, the F.O. needs to give him horses, especially in the Pen if they don't want starters to go thru a line up 3 times.  No manager could have success this year with the pitching he was expected to compete with this summer.

[jmlease1]

53 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

So on the one hand, we crow about the new analytical approach of the front office and manager, claim a new manager won't matter since he's just implementing the "analytics" sent down from above, 

AND 

On the other hand, we look down our nose at any fans who claim Rocco is just managing by analytics. 

 

Heh.

 

 

No. we claim that a new manager won't matter much if it's the same front office hiring him, because they'll still be implementing the same philosophies, AND because we don't think the manager impacts the game and team nearly as much as people seem to think.

And yes, we look down on the people who loudly claim at every opportunity that Rocco only "manages by computer" (a much more pejorative statement than "manages by analytics") when that statement always seems to be about not liking the way baseball is played today by almost everybody, not just the twins.

these are not incongruous statements, but whatevs.

[swahl]

I would stick with him for the foreseeable future. But they surely should have some organizational things done, especially with regard to health.

 

[terrydactyls]

Wow!  Same old, same old.  It seems like an article similar to this one is written several times each week.  And if not, several articles on other topics will spiral off topic and these same old arguments will be rehashed.

[USAFChief]

40 minutes ago, jmlease1 said:

No. we claim that a new manager won't matter much if it's the same front office hiring him, because they'll still be implementing the same philosophies, AND because we don't think the manager impacts the game and team nearly as much as people seem to think.

And yes, we look down on the people who loudly claim at every opportunity that Rocco only "manages by computer" (a much more pejorative statement than "manages by analytics") when that statement always seems to be about not liking the way baseball is played today by almost everybody, not just the twins.

these are not incongruous statements, but whatevs.

Explain to me the difference in "managing by analytics" and "managing by computer."

 

If you agree Rocco is just doing what the computer, via the front office, says to do, you can't then turn around and deny he's "managing by computer." 

You can LIKE that. You can agree with it. Fine. Claim another manager won't make a difference, fair. 

But you can't then also claim others are wrong about what it is the manager is doing. 

Either he's just implementing FO analytics, or he isn't. 

And not liking that operating methodology has just as much validity as liking it.

 

[Minny505]

7 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

This is my guess also. In 2019, Twins were able to win the division eventhough their poor INF anchored by misplaced SS Polanco, no capable CF sub to injury prone Buxton and no long relief to balance out the gap between SP & closer. 2020 management improved INF with Donaldson but left Polanco at SS. In 2021, moved Polanco off SS. 

In 2022, improved CF back-up depth imensely, upgraded SS w/ Correa and suggested "piggy-back" system was very promising, but never was followed through. Long relief (piggy-back) was especially needed due to a demolished BP because of the Rogers trade. Buxton carried the team the 1st half yet the BP lost too many games. Trading Garver demolished our catching depth, that was never really adressed. Not addressing these 2 areas were very dentrimental for our season success.

Slow as it may be,  management is making progress. So I believe Baldelli will stay around in 2023. As it seems that management can only work on one problem at a time, they will double down again on Jeffers. But if they install long relief & use it regularly, this will greatly help our pitching problems. If they don't greatly demolish another vital area.

I am on board with making progress.

While I don't necessarily agree on the Rogers-Pagan/Paddock take, I understand the opinion. The trade certainly hurt for the 2022 season.

But the Garver take? Huh? Garver would be no help. He played roughly 20 games at catcher this season and was kinda terrible.

Meanwhile, Gary Sanchez, who they flipped IKF for, has played 80-something games as a league average catcher. On top of that, Henriquez, the prospect they received, just turned 22, is already at AAA, and has arguably turned himself into the top pitching prospect in the Twins org.

That trade was an A+ when it comes to impact on the 2022 season, and likely far beyond that. 

[DocBauer]

My brain says to stay out of this conversation, but my stubbornness says to weigh in anyway, LOL. I think it's almost impossible to discuss Rocco without also discussing the FO to some degree. But I'm going to focus on Rocco directly, as much as possible. 

In regard to the entire topic of managing by computer or analytics only, I've got to pull the reins on that entire arguement. Before MLB fully embraced what are today's "modern" analytics approach, baseball has still been using analytics for a hundred years plus previously. More than any single sport, baseball has been measuring statistics the entire time! We've got numbers from wins and losses and SO and BB and ERA since the game basically began. Hitting statistics from BA to OB to Hr and RBI have been counted the same. You don't think managers haven't been fully aware of various hitters and pitchers career numbers against their opponents for the past 100+ years? Those numbers are analytics folks. The difference is about 15-20yrs ago a few really smart people took WHAT WAS ALREADY BEING USED and dug in deeper. Hitting wise they discovered that OB% was more valuable than previously known/understood. They discovered that bunting a runner to 2nd with no outs only increased your chances of scoring a single run a few percentage points. BUT, you LOWERED your chances of scoring MORE than that single run. So teams now play for a bigger inning most of the time these days. On the pitching front, it was learned that the long established 100 pitch number wasn't as big a factor in pulling a pitcher than him not facing a lineup for a 3rd time. It was also learned that RP usually performed better when they started a clean inning vs coming in with runners on base.

Analytics have ALWAYS been used, they've just changed in regard to what the information reveals. So if you have the belief that Rocco follows the numbers too closely at times, and doesn't trust his gut often enough, you have that right and I won't disagree with you. But I think this whole analytics and computer usage and Rocco being a robot is blown way out of context and accuracy and proportion.

The comments from Gray about wanting to pitch deeper in to games is also blown out of proportion. Would you want a pitcher who wants to throw less? When pressed after Rocco DID let Gray extend himself, it didn't go great. And Gray's follow up comment was that he appreciated the opportunity and needed to PERFORM BETTER next time. There was no blasting of Rocco. He just said he wanted to pitch deeper and then said it was up to him to do better. In fact, other than Shoemaker last year, I can't recall a single current or former player who has blasted Rocco, or his usage, or the Twin's usage of him, or anything similar. So no, there is no evidence Rocco isn't liked or has lost the team.

It's very easy to blast Rocco for his over usage of Pagan, especially in the Cleveland series in which he seemed to single-handedly erode our lead and momentum. But at some point, Baldelli can only use what he's got available. Was he supposed to turn to Duffey or Thornburg at that time? Well, maybe. But he didn't have many options at that time due to injury and lack of talent at the time. 

When injuries rob you of your starters, and you have a bad and beaten up pen, you can't just throw what you have for SP longer and expect positive results. When several of your best position players are out, you can't suddenly decide to bunt and steal bases all of a sudden and revamp your offensive approach and suddenly start scoring runs in bunches.

NOW, that's me just venting about things that are beat on like a blacksmith's hammer on anvil over and over again that are not only not productive, but also aren't fully accurate. NOR am I defending Rocco as a tremendous manager. I'm clearing the air about certain topics.

Where does Rocco fail and need to improve?

1] Once in a while, when a SP is doing well, worry less about August and September and let him begin the next inning. Now, I don't WANT said SP to blow things up facing batters for a 3rd time. And I don't WANT a RP brought in to a tough situation vs a clean inning. But there were a few games this year when the bottom of the order was coming up, or maybe 8-9-1 where I think his hook was too quick.

2] Don't fall in love with certain players. It's his job to put the team in the best spot to win. And BTW, this pertains to the FO as well! And when injuries decimate, your hands are tied at times. But when someone is slumping or just not doing the job, sometimes you just have to try someone else and hope for the best because you already know what's probably going to happen if you go status quo. (See Pagan).

3] If you need or want something, then man up and tell the FO what and why. Now, maybe he does that. IDK. But it took until late July or early August for him to speak publicly about needing some long and middle arms for the pen. I know injuries limited options, but why wasn't such an obvious need at least attempted to be filled in some way earlier? I mean, your job is on the line Rocco.

4] There's just no reason to NOT work on defense and base running. And yes, even bunting because there are times when a bunt could be useful. To me, it's a cop out to say those things should all be instilled before someone even reaches MLB. When you DON'T do these things, guys get complacent at times. It's human nature. And when you have a bunch of new talent coming up...and they have and do...it's your job to make sure they continue to work and DO THINGS RIGHT. You don't have to be a taciturn disciplinarian who works the team to death, BUT, you have time to work on things that are important on a regular basis to have the best team you can. It's like asking a football defense to tackle well when you never practice it. (HELLO HUSKERS!)

5] While the FO has CLEARLY done a great job with hiring various personnel for the Twins and the milb system...and this is proven by the number of respected coaches who have been pilfered by other organizations...and while they may be as much or more "tuned in" to coaching options for your staff, STEP UP and be a part of the decision making if you haven't been already. Do you like Popkins as your hitting instructor? Does Tingler actually provide what you need in a bench coach? Reputation has Maki as a good pitching instructor,  and reputation also has it that Suggs might be a dynamite diamond in the rough. You've lost Rowson and Shelton and Sawyer to other organizations and Johnson to college ball and Bell due to fatal illness. Work with the FO and get a staff in place that you like and trust. In all professional sports, I've always been flabbergasted as to how a staff is put together. I've never once heard of a manager/head coach having carte blanche. But I've never heard the opposite either. Again, a baseball manager is so tuned in to the day by day of a season, I think it's obvious the FO may be more in tune with "possibilities" to fill some of these positions. But Rocco, manager, former player, and former coach, should have some ideas. And he should be part of the process going forward. And shame on him if he isn't. 

I don't think Rocco is a bad manager. I just don't think he's an especially good one. He's OK. He has his team. He's liked and respected. He keeps an even keel over a long season. He's won and produced thus far! But I think he can learn and grow and just "take charge" of some definincies and make the team better in all the little ways that play big in the long run. The FO is at a precipice right now because it's really easy to see better health and a couple smart offseason moves to push this team forward from being good to potentially great. But it's also up to Rocco to take HIS GAME up a notch to get the most out of the 2023 Twins. 

[TwinsChupacabra]

The poor game attendance might be enough to at least consider dumping the FO and manager that will never win a playoff game.

If you don't win some playoff games soon, you will lose the next generation of potential fans.

How long will fans tolerate .500 ball when playing in baseball's worst division? --

They really need change.  Rocco has shown no improvement in game decisions and doesn't learn from past mistakes.  How can anyone have faith in a guy like that?  

 

P.S.  Quit showing his winning percentage as proof that he's good.  It's mostly based on one year, 2019, when anyone managing could have won 100 games. If you take that season out, he's 180-183.

 

[wabene]

3 hours ago, TwinsChupacabra said:

The poor game attendance might be enough to at least consider dumping the FO and manager that will never win a playoff game.

If you don't win some playoff games soon, you will lose the next generation of potential fans.

How long will fans tolerate .500 ball when playing in baseball's worst division? --

They really need change.  Rocco has shown no improvement in game decisions and doesn't learn from past mistakes.  How can anyone have faith in a guy like that?  

 

P.S.  Quit showing his winning percentage as proof that he's good.  It's mostly based on one year, 2019, when anyone managing could have won 100 games. If you take that season out, he's 180-183.

 

Chupy, that's still a better win percentage than Kelly and Gardy. The point is irrelevant because it is his actual win percentage that counts. Unless, of course, you can prove the statement that it doesn't count because anybody could have won 100 games that year. It is just nonsense.