What’s Next for Twins Manager Rocco Baldelli?

[RedBull34]

19 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

I don't want Roberts, but that Kershaw game was the first week of the season after a shortened spring training with a guy who hasn't held up in recent years who they wanted to be around for the whole season, and, more importantly, the postseason. They're very different situations. So it computes pretty easily.

There have been 317 No Hitters in MLB History.  There have been 23 Perfect Games.  Perfect Games happen so rarely that it's worth the risk, no matter the situation.

 

 

[wabene]

10 hours ago, DocBauer said:

My brain says to stay out of this conversation, but my stubbornness says to weigh in anyway, LOL. I think it's almost impossible to discuss Rocco without also discussing the FO to some degree. But I'm going to focus on Rocco directly, as much as possible. 

In regard to the entire topic of managing by computer or analytics only, I've got to pull the reins on that entire arguement. Before MLB fully embraced what are today's "modern" analytics approach, baseball has still been using analytics for a hundred years plus previously. More than any single sport, baseball has been measuring statistics the entire time! We've got numbers from wins and losses and SO and BB and ERA since the game basically began. Hitting statistics from BA to OB to Hr and RBI have been counted the same. You don't think managers haven't been fully aware of various hitters and pitchers career numbers against their opponents for the past 100+ years? Those numbers are analytics folks. The difference is about 15-20yrs ago a few really smart people took WHAT WAS ALREADY BEING USED and dug in deeper. Hitting wise they discovered that OB% was more valuable than previously known/understood. They discovered that bunting a runner to 2nd with no outs only increased your chances of scoring a single run a few percentage points. BUT, you LOWERED your chances of scoring MORE than that single run. So teams now play for a bigger inning most of the time these days. On the pitching front, it was learned that the long established 100 pitch number wasn't as big a factor in pulling a pitcher than him not facing a lineup for a 3rd time. It was also learned that RP usually performed better when they started a clean inning vs coming in with runners on base.

Analytics have ALWAYS been used, they've just changed in regard to what the information reveals. So if you have the belief that Rocco follows the numbers too closely at times, and doesn't trust his gut often enough, you have that right and I won't disagree with you. But I think this whole analytics and computer usage and Rocco being a robot is blown way out of context and accuracy and proportion.

The comments from Gray about wanting to pitch deeper in to games is also blown out of proportion. Would you want a pitcher who wants to throw less? When pressed after Rocco DID let Gray extend himself, it didn't go great. And Gray's follow up comment was that he appreciated the opportunity and needed to PERFORM BETTER next time. There was no blasting of Rocco. He just said he wanted to pitch deeper and then said it was up to him to do better. In fact, other than Shoemaker last year, I can't recall a single current or former player who has blasted Rocco, or his usage, or the Twin's usage of him, or anything similar. So no, there is no evidence Rocco isn't liked or has lost the team.

It's very easy to blast Rocco for his over usage of Pagan, especially in the Cleveland series in which he seemed to single-handedly erode our lead and momentum. But at some point, Baldelli can only use what he's got available. Was he supposed to turn to Duffey or Thornburg at that time? Well, maybe. But he didn't have many options at that time due to injury and lack of talent at the time. 

When injuries rob you of your starters, and you have a bad and beaten up pen, you can't just throw what you have for SP longer and expect positive results. When several of your best position players are out, you can't suddenly decide to bunt and steal bases all of a sudden and revamp your offensive approach and suddenly start scoring runs in bunches.

NOW, that's me just venting about things that are beat on like a blacksmith's hammer on anvil over and over again that are not only not productive, but also aren't fully accurate. NOR am I defending Rocco as a tremendous manager. I'm clearing the air about certain topics.

Where does Rocco fail and need to improve?

1] Once in a while, when a SP is doing well, worry less about August and September and let him begin the next inning. Now, I don't WANT said SP to blow things up facing batters for a 3rd time. And I don't WANT a RP brought in to a tough situation vs a clean inning. But there were a few games this year when the bottom of the order was coming up, or maybe 8-9-1 where I think his hook was too quick.

2] Don't fall in love with certain players. It's his job to put the team in the best spot to win. And BTW, this pertains to the FO as well! And when injuries decimate, your hands are tied at times. But when someone is slumping or just not doing the job, sometimes you just have to try someone else and hope for the best because you already know what's probably going to happen if you go status quo. (See Pagan).

3] If you need or want something, then man up and tell the FO what and why. Now, maybe he does that. IDK. But it took until late July or early August for him to speak publicly about needing some long and middle arms for the pen. I know injuries limited options, but why wasn't such an obvious need at least attempted to be filled in some way earlier? I mean, your job is on the line Rocco.

4] There's just no reason to NOT work on defense and base running. And yes, even bunting because there are times when a bunt could be useful. To me, it's a cop out to say those things should all be instilled before someone even reaches MLB. When you DON'T do these things, guys get complacent at times. It's human nature. And when you have a bunch of new talent coming up...and they have and do...it's your job to make sure they continue to work and DO THINGS RIGHT. You don't have to be a taciturn disciplinarian who works the team to death, BUT, you have time to work on things that are important on a regular basis to have the best team you can. It's like asking a football defense to tackle well when you never practice it. (HELLO HUSKERS!)

5] While the FO has CLEARLY done a great job with hiring various personnel for the Twins and the milb system...and this is proven by the number of respected coaches who have been pilfered by other organizations...and while they may be as much or more "tuned in" to coaching options for your staff, STEP UP and be a part of the decision making if you haven't been already. Do you like Popkins as your hitting instructor? Does Tingler actually provide what you need in a bench coach? Reputation has Maki as a good pitching instructor,  and reputation also has it that Suggs might be a dynamite diamond in the rough. You've lost Rowson and Shelton and Sawyer to other organizations and Johnson to college ball and Bell due to fatal illness. Work with the FO and get a staff in place that you like and trust. In all professional sports, I've always been flabbergasted as to how a staff is put together. I've never once heard of a manager/head coach having carte blanche. But I've never heard the opposite either. Again, a baseball manager is so tuned in to the day by day of a season, I think it's obvious the FO may be more in tune with "possibilities" to fill some of these positions. But Rocco, manager, former player, and former coach, should have some ideas. And he should be part of the process going forward. And shame on him if he isn't. 

I don't think Rocco is a bad manager. I just don't think he's an especially good one. He's OK. He has his team. He's liked and respected. He keeps an even keel over a long season. He's won and produced thus far! But I think he can learn and grow and just "take charge" of some definincies and make the team better in all the little ways that play big in the long run. The FO is at a precipice right now because it's really easy to see better health and a couple smart offseason moves to push this team forward from being good to potentially great. But it's also up to Rocco to take HIS GAME up a notch to get the most out of the 2023 Twins. 

TLDR (too long DID read). Mr Bauer this is long even by your standards, longer than the article, lol. Good comment I especially liked the beginning part about numbers and baseball. I think that is what drew me to the sport, the slower pace and thinking aspect. 

[wabene]

46 minutes ago, RedBull34 said:

There have been 317 No Hitters in MLB History.  There have been 23 Perfect Games.  Perfect Games happen so rarely that it's worth the risk, no matter the situation.

 

 

This is where I get off the bus, worth the risk? If I was a pitcher with a multi-million dollar career at stake there is no one game that would be worth giving it all up for. 

[Trov]

23 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

I expect Rocco to be back in 2023. I don't think he's THE problem, but I do think he's PART of the problem. Pulling Ryan last night was super frustrating to me, and I'd like to see Rocco replaced with someone who would have let the kid try for a likely once in a lifetime opportunity.

I get no hitters go into record books and sounds all cool, despite many of the no hitters are by pitchers people have barely heard of outside their own organization and really mean nothing long term for a pitcher.  He was over 100 pitches, which is not something he does a ton of.  Based on the rate of pitches per inning if he was going to complete the game he would have had to throw 136 to 140, my guess he has not done that his whole life.  Also, because he is trying to chase history he most likely would have put more into those pitches, making bases empty situation higher stress pitches.  Maybe he is fine after it, but history has shown that guys who have done exactly that, have had long term issues.  

I point to Johan Santana specifically.  He threw 134 pitches, and he was one that would regularly throw over 100, but not long after that start he was injured, and career was basically over.  Was it just that game that did it, maybe not, but the timing sure does not look good.  

Joe Ryan hopefully has several years in a Twins uniform to pitch for us, why risk having any kind of injury for a no-hitter?  It is a single game in his life, that he would remember forever, but he could remember it forever for the wrong reason if he would have stayed in there and blew out his arm.  The point is to win games, and keep guys healthy, not have no-hitters. 

[chpettit19]

2 hours ago, RedBull34 said:

There have been 317 No Hitters in MLB History.  There have been 23 Perfect Games.  Perfect Games happen so rarely that it's worth the risk, no matter the situation.

 

 

Well the pitcher actually throwing that perfect game disagrees with you. There was not the slightest hint in anything he said after the game that suggested he thought he should stay in. So not sure what to tell you.

[chpettit19]

1 hour ago, Trov said:

I get no hitters go into record books and sounds all cool, despite many of the no hitters are by pitchers people have barely heard of outside their own organization and really mean nothing long term for a pitcher.  He was over 100 pitches, which is not something he does a ton of.  Based on the rate of pitches per inning if he was going to complete the game he would have had to throw 136 to 140, my guess he has not done that his whole life.  Also, because he is trying to chase history he most likely would have put more into those pitches, making bases empty situation higher stress pitches.  Maybe he is fine after it, but history has shown that guys who have done exactly that, have had long term issues.  

I point to Johan Santana specifically.  He threw 134 pitches, and he was one that would regularly throw over 100, but not long after that start he was injured, and career was basically over.  Was it just that game that did it, maybe not, but the timing sure does not look good.  

Joe Ryan hopefully has several years in a Twins uniform to pitch for us, why risk having any kind of injury for a no-hitter?  It is a single game in his life, that he would remember forever, but he could remember it forever for the wrong reason if he would have stayed in there and blew out his arm.  The point is to win games, and keep guys healthy, not have no-hitters. 

Limiting innings and pitches hasn't done a great job of winning games or keeping guys healthy the last couple seasons. Joe Ryan is far from a max effort guy. The fact he doesn't throw 100 pitches often is self-inflicted by the organization. I'm not suggesting there should be no pitch or inning limits, but if they didn't limit his pitches as often then 106 to 130 pitches in 1 game wouldn't be such a concern.

Ignoring the human aspect of things also isn't a great strategy for winning games. Frustrating your entire starting staff isn't a great strategy for winning games. These are still hypercompetitive professional athletes who want to compete. They clearly didn't sell Ryan on pulling him Tuesday. He was visibly upset with the decision. You don't think his fellow starters, and likely entire team, didn't also want to see him keep going? I'd guess some of them accept the reasoning and it's whatever, but I'd guess there's more than a couple who get more and more frustrated as the team is managed in a certain way. And I'm not one who calls for Rocco's head or to ignore analytics or anything, but there has to be a balance.

If 1 game was ruining careers left and right it'd be pretty obvious and nobody would ever go over 110 pitches, or whatever the cutoff is. It's simply not the case. Especially for a non-max effort guy like Ryan. Stepping on the field for any amount of time in any game is risking injury. You "risk having any kind of injury for a no-hitter" because it's what kids dream of. It's what fans come out to see. It's what Ryan puts the jersey on for. It's greatness. Even for a night. The search of finding that groove and being the best player on a field full of professional athletes even for a night is what they do it for. Taming that isn't a good strategy for winning games. At all.

[LastOnePicked]

This is the part of the article I question: "The Twins have won the division twice during his four-year tenure, and they should be seen as a candidate to do so again in 2023." Say what? A team with no SS, no closer, chronic health issues, a spent farm system and a shaky rotation? I doubt the Twins will be contending anytime soon.

[RedBull34]

2 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

Well the pitcher actually throwing that perfect game disagrees with you. There was not the slightest hint in anything he said after the game that suggested he thought he should stay in. So not sure what to tell you.

And Joe Ryan's public statements suggest he was fine with being pulled and yet you argue he should have stayed in???

There is a difference with no complaining publicly and supporting the decision.  Ryan and Kershaw were both probably pissed, if if they understood.