Is it time to move the goalposts forward?

[Badsmerf]

I've been serious about this for a while. This is why I wanted Greinke so bad! Morneau's money is off the books next season, so they have the flexibility. Guys they could target are Wainwright and Johnson, but I prefer Greinke to both. I would like Wainwright too, but he is on the wrong side of 30 to give a big contract to.

[Twins Twerp]

I won't speak for Lev, but I think it is harder to score runs if you only have one guy you even expect to hit 15 HRs.....I doubt anyone is looking for Mantle and Maris, how about Gaetti/Hrbek/Brunansky, plus random guys? That's what I think people believe they need. Three guys with legit power, plus the random guy every year with power. Can you even name teh likely DH or 1B in 2 years? I can't.

 

Vargas and Harrison. One of those two will hopefully make it up as a DH prospect. A DH can come from anywhere. A combination of Arcia/Vargas/Harrison/Sano for outfield/firstbase/DH would have a lot of power potential.

[ashbury]

I want him to ravage me sexually.

 

We all want this for you.

[drjim]

I've been serious about this for a while. This is why I wanted Greinke so bad! Morneau's money is off the books next season, so they have the flexibility. Guys they could target are Wainwright and Johnson, but I prefer Greinke to both. I would like Wainwright too, but he is on the wrong side of 30 to give a big contract to.

 

Wainwright was already extended. Greinke would probably required a minimum of 8/200 to come here. You wanted the Twins to pay that?

[Shane Wahl]

FYI: James Beresford is starting to actually hit AA pitching. Now, for whatever reason, Danny Santana is playing the vast majority at SS, but Beresford is probably the top defensive SS in the system. He might end up being that serviceable SS in a year or two.

[Mike Sixel]

and if they don't spend that money on Greinke, where will they spend it? Next year, Blackburn and Morneau come off the payroll, and they add $25MM in new national tv revenue. The following year Willingham and Correia come off the payroll. At that point, they will have zero position players or pitchers, zero, that will require arbitration awards of more than a couple million for several years, maybe, maybe Diamond and Worley, but it's doubtful both will need more than a few milliion......They have no payroll tied up at all after this year, none. Mauer is it.

 

If not on a front line player, where else will they spend it?

[jay]

2014 MLB Free-Agent List

 

Not many options at SS, maybe Brendan Ryan to come play some top-level D before he gets too old.

 

More options at SP that would presumably be in the Twins range if they are looking for a mid-rotation option.

 

MLBTR has a 2015 list also, but that's too far out to really gauge and lots of guys will get extended by then.

[drjim]

This scenario also raises questions about what to do with Willingham. Barring injury there will be demand for him at the deadline.

 

Do you keep him in the hope of competing in 2014 or do you flip him for young pitching, take a hit in 2014 (and hurt the outside chance that year) and have the value going forward?

[ashbury]

A solid 1-8 of OPS guys would be awesome, but I'd like to see some more of that constituted in power.

 

Agreed. OPS is a crude tool, and in most cases the conventional wisdom says it under-weights OBA significantly. However, on a team of table-setters only, I have to guess that OBA somewhat overstates the run-scoring potential; it takes 3 non-outs to score a single run most times, while even just a double can plate multiple table-setters before him. Just another example of the zen-like balance found in baseball.

[Mike Sixel]

2014 MLB Free-Agent List

 

Not many options at SS, maybe Brendan Ryan to come play some top-level D before he gets too old.

 

More options at SP that would presumably be in the Twins range if they are looking for a mid-rotation option.

 

MLBTR has a 2015 list also, but that's too far out to really gauge and lots of guys will get extended by then.

 

 

Not many options of position players at all. It amazes me how long a MLB team owns the rights to players.

[Siehbiscuit]

The Twins lineup and rotations are not too far away. The lineup has a good balance of contact, speed and power. The rotation still needs some development and high-end talent but the outlook is greatly improved compared to this time last year.

 

2015 Lineup

 

C - Mauer (Pinto/Hermann backup)

1B - Parmalee (Sano or Bryant backup)

2B - Rosario or Dozier

3B - Sano/Bryant

SS - Michael/Santana

LF - Arcia/Benson

CF - Buxton

RF - Hicks

DH - Vargas/Arcia/Sano/Bryant/Harrison

 

There are good options everywhere except SS. Better talent still needed there.

[TheLeviathan]

I think Arcia will be that guy. He hit around 15 homers per season through the minors while Kubel hit more in the 20 range per season.

 

But Arcia did it a year younger at every level.

 

I'm bullish on Arcia too, but his track record has been as a very balanced hitter. I'm not knocking that at all btw, just stating that with the bulk of our elite prospects being offensive players we're going to need this offense to be really good to compete. I'm also not knocking OPS, but there is something to having a few of your high OPS guys being buoyed by slugging as opposed to OBP. A line-up of all OBP-heavy guys leaves a bit to be desired. Even mixing in one more slug-happy guy suddenly makes all those OBP guys that much more dangerous too.

 

We've got lots of guys taht project more as great 2/3/7 hole type hitters, I guess I just see some significant room for improvement in the middle of the lineup with Sano. Still should put pitching first, but I think another big time power potential prospect is right behind it.

[drjim]

Not many options of position players at all. It amazes me how long a MLB team owns the rights to players.

 

The bigger situation is that most good players get locked up by their teams through their prime years which is what leaves free agency so barren. This trend will only get more pronounced as more and more national TV money (and to a lesser extent revenue sharing) comes pouring in.

[Mike Sixel]

The bigger situation is that most good players get locked up by their teams through their prime years which is what leaves free agency so barren. This trend will only get more pronounced as more and more national TV money (and to a lesser extent revenue sharing) comes pouring in.

 

yup, that's what I've been saying for months now.....it's only going to get worse.

[Oxtung]

yup, that's what I've been saying for months now.....it's only going to get worse.

 

Only for a couple of years then it will trend back to historical norms. Free Agency is still where the big bucks come from; whether those bucks are $2 million or $20 million or $200 million. Baseball players, like all commodities, want to maximize their returns.

[drjim]

Only for a couple of years then it will trend back to historical norms. Free Agency is still where the big bucks come from; whether those bucks are $2 million or $20 million or $200 million. Baseball players, like all commodities, want to maximize their returns.

 

Maybe. Or they want to balance their maximum return with minimizing some risk.

[Oxtung]

Maybe. Or they want to balance their maximum return with minimizing some risk.

 

I'm sure some will. That has always been the case. My point is that nothing has really changed with the fundamentals of FA. It's just that the pot of available money is larger and therefore the contracts will be larger.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I have little doubt that the Twins are going to be a good hitting team throughout the remainder of the decade. I'd say at this point, only injuries and some surprise ineffectiveness would do it. They have good prospects dominating in leagues where hitters typically struggle. I could see some rationale in being aggressive with some of these guys, but I don't think you do it if their development is going to stall. Buxton, for instance, has cooled off significantly, but he would the 3rd OF in this mix unless Benson suddenly finds it again. Rosario and Sano both look more legit as well.

 

Personally, I am not as certain they should be rushing out to find a SS. I'd be giving Escobar a chance at being an every day guy right now to see if he's a long term option. Otherwise, you may see Plouffe headed back there if his bat holds up.

 

That said, as other posters have pointed out, the pitching margins are razor thin. Gibson and Meyer both look like top of the rotation guys. May could be, or he could be Ricky Nolasco too. Who knows. Then of course there's injury concerns, which can take a decent pitcher down for the better part of 2 years... just ask Gibson about that. While I'd like Appel or Gray to fall to us at 4, I highly doubt either one will be there. Manaea isn't a guy you can stuff in AA this year and see how he does, which means you are one injury away from a pretty weak staff. If you want to move the goal posts forward, then signing a big name pitcher is a must... the problem, as I see it, is the guy they should have targeted (Sanchez) was not targeted. Next year's FA crop is hardly inspiring. I haven't seen the 2015 season list yet, but that's probably the soonest they can add an FA pitcher.

[kab21]

I'm bullish on Arcia too, but his track record has been as a very balanced hitter.

 

He has been a balanced hitter throughout the minors. But he was a balanced masher. He's a legit middle of the order bat.

 

isoP's of Twins in the minors

Arcia - .239

Ortiz - .223

Morneau - .217

Kubel - .179

Cuddyer - .196

Mauer - .093

 

The other problem in this thread is that people are acting like the Twins have a bunch of singles hitters coming up. that isn't true at all. Many of the guys might not profile as 20-30 HR guys but they will be racking up doubles.

[drjim]

I have little doubt that the Twins are going to be a good hitting team throughout the remainder of the decade. I'd say at this point, only injuries and some surprise ineffectiveness would do it. They have good prospects dominating in leagues where hitters typically struggle. I could see some rationale in being aggressive with some of these guys, but I don't think you do it if their development is going to stall. Buxton, for instance, has cooled off significantly, but he would the 3rd OF in this mix unless Benson suddenly finds it again. Rosario and Sano both look more legit as well.

 

By what measure?

[diehardtwinsfan]

By what measure?

 

Up until today, his average had dropped down to a more respectable measure... I probably shouldn't have used the word significantly.

[snepp]

By what measure?

 

A sub-1.200 OPS?

[TheLeviathan]

The other problem in this thread is that people are acting like the Twins have a bunch of singles hitters coming up. that isn't true at all. Many of the guys might not profile as 20-30 HR guys but they will be racking up doubles.

 

I don't want to insinuate that they are singles hitters, just not enough slugging. But maybe I'm being a bit down on Arcia after seeing that group of stats. I hope he can be a guy for that role.

[snepp]

Buxton hit another homer tonight.

[kab21]

I don't want to insinuate that they are singles hitters, just not enough slugging. But maybe I'm being a bit down on Arcia after seeing that group of stats. I hope he can be a guy for that role.

 

The type of hitter that you are concerned about are the easiest type of player to find in FA or trades. Everyone thinks Willingham was really cheap and a great pickup. He has certainly outperformed his contract but older sluggers with no defensive value don't break the bank in FA. The Twins have a chance to fill every up the middle position and 3B with +.150 isoP guys. Mauer, Rosario, Sano, Harrison, Hicks and Buxton. Most teams have weak hitters at so many of those positions that it balances out their sluggers.

[TheLeviathan]

Mauer, Rosario, Sano, Harrison, Hicks and Buxton. Most teams have weak hitters at so many of those positions that it balances out their sluggers.

 

Yeah, I mentioned earlier about the benefit of Rosario's position. And you're right, you can acquire some hitters like Willingham that way but the one type of bat I think we need (other than SS) is the kind we're likely to see two of walk before 2015.

 

Maybe we can replace that in FA, but it will have to be a part of the plan because we only have one of that type of player in our system right now.

[kab21]

We are only losing 1 of those types of players and we only have one of those types of players on this team (not counting Arcia). Morneau has been a shadow of himself and isn't even very good. And the Twins have two of those guys in the system and could put out a lineup that has decent pop at almost every position. That makes up for not having 3-4 classic middle of the order bats.

[TheLeviathan]

That makes up for not having 3-4 classic middle of the order bats.

 

As ashbury said earlier - it just makes it a lot more difficult. A couple classic power hitters only makes those other guys more valuable by driving them home in bunches. Morneau may be a shell of himself, but it's what he represents. Replacing some of that middle of the order power is going to have to be part of the rebuild.

[kab21]

guys that hit doubles and don't make outs don't make it much more difficult. Ashbury tried to make it sound like the Twins had a bunch of singles/BB hitters coming up. that isn't true at all. the best part of the projected Twins lineups is that the Twins can score runs top to bottom in the lineup instead of having several borderline awful hitters grouped together.

[TheLeviathan]

guys that hit doubles and don't make outs don't make it much more difficult. Ashbury tried to make it sound like the Twins had a bunch of singles/BB hitters coming up. that isn't true at all. the best part of the projected Twins lineups is that the Twins can score runs top to bottom in the lineup instead of having several borderline awful hitters grouped together.

 

Maybe, but a lot remains to be seen about that. One thing we know with reasonable certainty is that we have only one of this wave of hitters projected to hit for considerable power. The rest are probably gap hitters. I guess I'd just like a little more balance and power in the lineup to help facilitate the run scoring.

 

It's not like they won't have positions available to put those guys at - Parmalee may not hit well enough to be at first and we'll likely have a DH spot. I think finding some serious power to pair with Sano helps considerably.

 

I'm curious, would you rather have 5-6 guys in the Mauer/Headley mold (limited homerun power but good OPS) or 4 Mauer-lites and a two Edwin Encarnacion/Bruce/Laroche types. I guess I'm inclined more to the latter. That's more my point - this offense has a chance to be special in a few years but one potential weakness is shallow home-run options.