What Happens to the Twins Front Office for 2023?

[Minny505]

1 hour ago, In My La Z boy said:

I hope they make better decisions this winter. We supposedly were in the running for Wheeler a couple years ago. We were supposedly in the running for Rodon last year. Things would have turned out very differently if we had closed those 2 deals. We settled for pitchers like Shoemaker/Happ/Bundy/Archer - We signed up Dobnak when we didn't need to - we've gone into the last 2 seasons adding the wrong bullpen guys - no pitching pipeline yet.

Looks to me like we have a nice supply for '23 of #3-#5 starters - Ryan, Gray, Mahle, Maeda, Paddock, Winder, Ober - this winter we need to go get a #1 and a #2. 

Give me a few 1/2 SPs in your mind. Any in the league. Aces don't count (IE Verlander, DeGrom, etc).

Because, by the metrics, Statcast data, stuff plus scouting, etc, Mahle and Gray are the very definition of #2s with #1 upside when going well. They are right in the conversation with names like Montas, Tyler Anderson, Chris Bassitt, Logan Gilbert, Triston McKenzie, etc.

I'm trying to understand what you mean by your definition. 

Quantity of IP? I'll agree that is an issue with them, but not quality.

Rodon is really the only FA better than those two who is not expected to re-up with their current org. The rest are adding more #3s, as you say.

FWIW, I'd like them to sign another (your definition) #3, such as Bassitt or Anderson...unless they can swing a trade for better.

[chpettit19]

8 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

I think by the time he was let go you would find less than half of Twins fans wanted him retained.

And in any case, the above is a long way from "greatest GM in the history of sports."

18 years in and Twins fans were ready to give up on him? Wow, impressive. He didn't have a team reach .500 until his 8th season in charge. Had teams over .500 in 7 of 18 seasons in charge. And is still revered as a great GM and there are still fans on these very threads that ask for a return to a Ryan type GM so we can get back to being a good baseball team. I'm sorry for the hyperbole as I know you'd never stoop to such things.

Just pointing out the very different response the Ryan regime gets compared to the Falvey one despite there being very little difference beyond the word "analytics" being used much more with Falvey. Ryan's teams bunted more while they lost so a large number of fans want his teams back. Just pointing out that what some fans find to be a "fine job" and what will "doom us to mediocrity" is lacking in some logic.

[nicksaviking]

My biggest problem with the suggestions of replacing the front office is the undertone from many of the posts that they don't like the 'new school' approach to baseball.

That's too bad, it has to stay. The team absolutely has zero chance if they turn into the Colorado Rockies and pretend decisions should be made by some manager or GM's "gut". That is not a viable option in today's game. Replacing the front office can certainly be on the table, but it would have to be with similarly minded people, who may just have new ideas to evaluate and problem solve.

Before making any such decision though, someone NOT in the inner circle, say Dave St. Peter, needs to hire someone to do an independent study to at least try to determine if the rash of injuries are due to predictable or unpredictable causations.

[In My La Z boy]

15 minutes ago, Minny505 said:

Give me a few 1/2 SPs in your mind. Any in the league. Aces don't count (IE Verlander, DeGrom, etc).

Because, by the metrics, Statcast data, stuff plus scouting, etc, Mahle and Gray are the very definition of #2s with #1 upside when going well. They are right in the conversation with names like Montas, Tyler Anderson, Chris Bassitt, Logan Gilbert, Triston McKenzie, etc.

I'm trying to understand what you mean by your definition. 

Quantity of IP? I'll agree that is an issue with them, but not quality.

Rodon is really the only FA better than those two who is not expected to re-up with their current org. The rest are adding more #3s, as you say.

FWIW, I'd like them to sign another (your definition) #3, such as Bassitt or Anderson...unless they can swing a trade for better.

I guess I was playing off my earlier comment about missing out on Wheeler and Rodon, after telling us we were in the mix for both. We failed on Wheeler, and signed Donaldson. We failed on Rodon, and signed Correa. I couldn't tell you who may be available this winter either through free agency or in trade - but we've chased those 2 - and we would have been correct in that either one of them would indeed be our #1 today. I assume Falvey could answer your question. My input is - get the deal closed this time whomever you deem as a #1 this winter. 

[msukirbycarew]

I find it funny that so many people criticize this piece and spew so much negativity against the front office and Rocco.  I have confidence in both.  The fact is that injuries hurt us more than any year I can recall in my 45 years of watching the Twins.  The fact that Buxton was essentially playing at 50 percent  cost this team multiple victories.  I will fault the FO with bad bullpen construction but I am not sure they had  many good options.  BP  pitchers are just to unreliable in most cases. The fact that many are saying we lost the San Diego trade just shows  that those people are just FO "haters" with no objective perspective. We traded junk for junk. Rodgers is as bad as Pagan so we lost nothing and gained the chance Paddock would contribute which he may next year.  I believe there is enough talent coming back next year and that our depth will be improved so we can contend for the pennant.  This year exceeded expectations and was an improvement from last year.   

[Vanimal46]

16 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

My biggest problem with the suggestions of replacing the front office is the undertone from many of the posts that they don't like the 'new school' approach to baseball.

That's too bad, it has to stay. The team absolutely has zero chance if they turn into the Colorado Rockies and pretend decisions should be made by some manager or GM's "gut". That is not a viable option in today's game. Replacing the front office can certainly be on the table, but it would have to be with similarly minded people, who may just have new ideas to evaluate and problem solve.

Before making any such decision though, someone NOT in the inner circle, say Dave St. Peter, needs to hire someone to do an independent study to at least try to determine if the rash of injuries are due to predictable or unpredictable causations.

When 29 out of 30 teams are on identical playing fields with analytics, you need something else to separate yourself from the pack. More intangible things like development, targeting breakout players in FA/draft/waivers, diversifying types of pitchers, etc. 

Falvey and Levine were instrumental bringing the Twins to the 21st century with data and technology. They have a poor track record with trades and free agent signings. Developing their own pitching pipeline has been a mess. 

[In My La Z boy]

16 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

18 years in and Twins fans were ready to give up on him? Wow, impressive. He didn't have a team reach .500 until his 8th season in charge. Had teams over .500 in 7 of 18 seasons in charge. And is still revered as a great GM and there are still fans on these very threads that ask for a return to a Ryan type GM so we can get back to being a good baseball team. I'm sorry for the hyperbole as I know you'd never stoop to such things.

Just pointing out the very different response the Ryan regime gets compared to the Falvey one despite there being very little difference beyond the word "analytics" being used much more with Falvey. Ryan's teams bunted more while they lost so a large number of fans want his teams back. Just pointing out that what some fans find to be a "fine job" and what will "doom us to mediocrity" is lacking in some logic.

Perhaps hype vs results is in play here. Ryan was never given the budget Falvey's been given, and Ryan never had any hype behind his reign. Nostalgia perhaps also in play - old people like me tend to pine for what was vs what is. Human nature. It is ok to be old and have the opinion of an old timer. We're right sometimes, and sometimes not. Ryan also came onto the scene during some of our hardest times as a club, and did indeed make major improvements. And he was a very nice man. Sat and chatted it up with me on occasion. A nobody fan. He didn't have to, but he always did. Very loyal Twins man, and family man, kind to one and all.

[chpettit19]

5 minutes ago, In My La Z boy said:

Perhaps hype vs results is in play here. Ryan was never given the budget Falvey's been given, and Ryan never had any hype behind his reign. Nostalgia perhaps also in play - old people like me tend to pine for what was vs what is. Human nature. It is ok to be old and have the opinion of an old timer. We're right sometimes, and sometimes not. Ryan also came onto the scene during some of our hardest times as a club, and did indeed make major improvements. And he was a very nice man. Sat and chatted it up with me on occasion. A nobody fan. He didn't have to, but he always did. Very loyal Twins man, and family man, kind to one and all.

He maybe didn't have hype coming in, but he very much had hype during the early 2000s despite having a losing record for his first 7 seasons. Falvey also took over during a very low time in Twins history. "Total system failure" was the way the previous season was described. That's not exactly easy times.

Nostalgia is very likely a large part of it. People remembering those early 2000s teams happily and enjoying the way those teams played. Fans want those days back despite those teams also completely failing in the playoffs. Were just more enjoyable teams to watch with a fun core. I have no problem with anyone of any age wanting things to be different, I'm just trying to keep some perspective when we're talking about the current regime. Most calls are for a return to an idealized past that never really existed. As time has gone on Ryan is remembered for these great teams despite never really overseeing a great team, and overseeing more bad ones than good ones. 7 teams over .500 in 18 seasons. This regime is taking over from "total system failure" and some people want them out after 6 years despite it taking 8 for Ryan to really get going. The fans calling for Falvey's head very well may have also been calling for Ryan's back in the 90s, I don't know.

I wouldn't even be that upset if they were removed. I think they updated the development systems and that's a contribution that shouldn't be discounted, but is also something that a new regime could keep in place. Or maybe it's just a little shakeup needed and Levine needs to go, but Falvey stays. Or they need a new manager who will push back on their ideas more. I don't know. I think a lot of the pushback on them is more about a certain segment of the fans not liking the changes that have taken place in MLB in general. Bunting, 3 true outcomes, short starts, etc. are general baseball problems, not just Twins problems. Falvey, Levine, and Rocco have earned some fan ire for sure. Maybe they should be fired. I just want people to keep perspective on some things. Ryan wasn't a great GM, and the Twins style of play is pretty standard for 2022 MLB.

Derek Falvey, for what it's worth, has also taken the time to chat with me on multiple occasions, and I've never heard about him not being kind to people.

[gunnarthor]

The reality is that the new FO came in at great time, a great young nucleus,  money,  and the number one pick. Their job was to mimic the Twins 2000 success: supplement that nucleus and keep the window of opportunity open longer.  They failed on both fronts. Their pitching pipeline doesn't exist, they've drafted poorly, and they've misjudged talent they had.  If we miss the playoffs again,  they should be gone. 

[Minny505]

58 minutes ago, In My La Z boy said:

I guess I was playing off my earlier comment about missing out on Wheeler and Rodon, after telling us we were in the mix for both. We failed on Wheeler, and signed Donaldson. We failed on Rodon, and signed Correa. I couldn't tell you who may be available this winter either through free agency or in trade - but we've chased those 2 - and we would have been correct in that either one of them would indeed be our #1 today. I assume Falvey could answer your question. My input is - get the deal closed this time whomever you deem as a #1 this winter. 

I do agree on both of those. Unfortunately, according to multiple sources, the Twins did have a slightly higher offer on the table to Wheeler and he just wanted to "go home" to Philly. Hard to compete with that.

Rodon was a huge whiff. That's really only one, and they get another crack at him if they can get Jim to sign off. With payroll as it is, it's certainly feasible, but he would be the only notable FA signed. 

2023 bullpen looks solid with Lopez added and internal candidates.

They will need a RH OF bat and a stopgap SS, but that is $15mil total.

With $45mil for 2023 expected to be available after arb raises, Rodon is in the cards and would be a bigger splash, and improvement, than even Correa. 

[bean5302]

Still too early to make a call. The season needs to play out to the point the Twins' playoff status and overall record as to over or under .500 is solidified. It'll also be helpful to see how the Twins' farm system looks as the season closes out entirely.

The Twins could still win the World Series (as ridiculous as that may seem). If they won the World Series or even made a deep playoff run, all would be forgiven.

That aside, saying all the best players on the team are not part of Falvey's regime is not a glowing endorsement of why the current front office should remain...

[Battle ur tail off]

I think overall they have done fine. They need to develop a couple top of the rotation arms though with this next core, or it will be more of the same. Bad one year, win our poor division the next and bow out early. I like that they are aggressive in trades and signings. 

Stay the course. Figure out how/who/what it takes to develop a couple guys that can give him 6-7 solids more nights than not and they will get there.

Oh, and figure out what is going on with all of these injuries. This can't continue to happen to every single core player we have on our roster or minor league pitcher we have.

 

[SpicyGarvSauce]

This article is laughable - and a main reason why people can't take the Twins media seriously.

[SpicyGarvSauce]

16 minutes ago, Battle ur tail off said:

I think overall they have done fine. They need to develop a couple top of the rotation arms though with this next core, or it will be more of the same. Bad one year, win our poor division the next and bow out early. I like that they are aggressive in trades and signings. 

Stay the course. Figure out how/who/what it takes to develop a couple guys that can give him 6-7 solids more nights than not and they will get there.

Oh, and figure out what is going on with all of these injuries. This can't continue to happen to every single core player we have on our roster or minor league pitcher we have.

 

"Fine" has gotten them zero postseason victories.

If you are okay with the "fine" that they have done, kudos to you.

[jmlease1]

6 hours ago, Whitey333 said:

You must be their agent.  Glowing reports on the FO.  I too expect them to be back but I would sure expect to see a better plan, a new computer, a manager that is at least flexible, and some direction for the team.  This team appeared rudderless for the last three months.  If 2023 was always the year to be a great contender they have a long way to go.

there's no take lazier and more tired than the "Rocco & His Computer" takes. 

There's plenty to criticize the FO on the way they handled this season (especially the offseason, where they didn't make effective moves to bolster the bullpen and made some wobbly decisions on the rotation with limited upside or high risk). There's also plenty to find the good in, especially how aggressive and effective they were at the deadline (even if those moves haven't had all the results we wanted this year). 

but the "Blah Blah Blah computer Blah Blah Blah Rocco Sux Blah Blah Blah" takes are tired and not remotely helpful.

[chpettit19]

1 hour ago, RakeCave said:

You realize it's possible for both Terry Ryan, and Falvey and Lavine to both be garbage General Managers...

It's not mutually exclusive. 

I do. I'm saying that fans call for a return to those Ryan days and point at him as a success and they just wish the Twins would bring someone like him back so they can be "good again" when the current regime isn't doing any worse than he did. I don't care if they fire this FO. I don't think they should, but wouldn't be upset if they did. These guys already at least ushered them into the 21st century so whoever would replace them wouldn't have to completely rebuild the development systems and bring in actual 21st century strategies like Falvey and Levine had to do.

[RpR]

3 hours ago, Vanimal46 said:

 

Falvey and Levine were instrumental bringing the Twins to the 21st century with data and technology.

That must have been really , really important as the Twins record shows.

[MGM4706]

Ted: You forget actual bare FACTS! No team in the last 20 years has been successful in the playoffs without an ACE and strong #2. Plus a Closer.  The Twins had none of those to start the season. They accidently ran into Duran who is now a legit Closer. But until they decide they actually want to win and focus on pitching rather than just being "Profitable" the Twins will be .500 and Jim Pohlad will be happy with his Front office. Profit is better than winning for this group. They love Rocco because he just puppets whatever they want. He will be here a long time regardless of losing the team down the stretch!

[bean5302]

37 minutes ago, MGM4706 said:

Ted: You forget actual bare FACTS! No team in the last 20 years has been successful in the playoffs without an ACE and strong #2. Plus a Closer.  The Twins had none of those to start the season. They accidently ran into Duran who is now a legit Closer. But until they decide they actually want to win and focus on pitching rather than just being "Profitable" the Twins will be .500 and Jim Pohlad will be happy with his Front office. Profit is better than winning for this group. They love Rocco because he just puppets whatever they want. He will be here a long time regardless of losing the team down the stretch!

While I strongly advocate for the importance of an "ace" type pitcher, the Kansas City Royals won the 2016 World Series without one. Edinson Volquez led the pitching staff with a 3.55 ERA and 3.82 FIP. Journeyman Chris Young had a career year, but he was converted to a reliever down the stretch before suddenly being thrust back into a starting role for the playoffs.

I think Sonny Gray is good enough to lead the rotation, but if he's only going to be allowed to pitch 4-5 innings, it's not going to matter much anyway.

[dex8425]

5 hours ago, In My La Z boy said:

I guess I was playing off my earlier comment about missing out on Wheeler and Rodon, after telling us we were in the mix for both. We failed on Wheeler, and signed Donaldson. We failed on Rodon, and signed Correa. I couldn't tell you who may be available this winter either through free agency or in trade - but we've chased those 2 - and we would have been correct in that either one of them would indeed be our #1 today. I assume Falvey could answer your question. My input is - get the deal closed this time whomever you deem as a #1 this winter. 

Nobody would dispute that Rodon and Wheeler are both #1's too. Rodon is going to receive Cy young votes for the second year in a row, and Wheeler almost won the cy young last year. This year he's been elite again. 

Both of those guys are a step up from Berrios or Sonny Gray. 

[Beast]

It’s mind blowing, the number of pieces raving about this FO getting rolled out this week after getting our ass kicked by the Yankees AAA club and Guardians (basically another AAA club).

Judging by the level of ratio these articles have received in the comments, I don’t think anyone buys this borderline propaganda at this point.

I really appreciate what you guys built here.  It was great at one time.  A bastion of baseball truth.  Kudos for the idea, the hard work, etc.  But, It’s kind of turning into Twins.com.  The CNN of Twins blogs.  Unreadable for casual fans who watched them piggy back off the previous regime, squander one of the greatest offenses in history in 2019, make numerous awful decisions (remember the 2018 debacle anyone?  Now this?).  They’ve flat out stunk.  We’re pushing a decade and they haven’t even caught the scent of a playoff win.  I mean, honestly.  We get it, they’re not going anywhere because ownership is incompetent.  But, It’s not illegal to criticize where it’s deserved (at least it used to be).

Bloggers for years complained about not being allowed into the country club.  You finally get in and the first thing you do tie a cardigan around your neck and join the yes men like Lavelle, etc.

Is that the standards are just that damn low?  Or, is there really no safe haven left to honestly talk baseball instead of ass kissing.

[beckmt]

I don't think we are going to win with only 4 players starting who started the season.  And many are out for a fair amount of time.  We now have multiple pitchers that will be interesting which one they keep(my guess is the Archer and Bundy will not be back) as we have Ryan, Gray, Winder, Ober, Maeda, Mahle, Varland and others as starters, not counting Paddock who could be back later.  For relievers we have Duran, Alacla, Lopez, Thielbar with either additions or some minor leaguers stepping up.  

Players we have Jeffers, Arraez, Polonco, Miranda, Urshala, Gordon, Kepler, Buxton, Kirloff, maybe Laurach and Celestino.  A second catcher and a right handed outfielder are all the are missing here.  Plus a SS, either Correra, or someone else, plus Lewis will be back at some point.  This to me seems like a very competitive club with a few holes to fill. 

Some of you seem to be saying to tear it down or go on a spending spree.  Neither is going to happen and the FO is going to be here.  Worst thing this year was the bullpen that they constructed failed.  I don't think anyone saw Alacla being out for the year. Or Paddock and Mahle going down injured.  Outside of premier closers relievers are very fickle.  Let the year play out and go get them next year. 

[Battle ur tail off]

20 hours ago, SpicyGarvSauce said:

"Fine" has gotten them zero postseason victories.

If you are okay with the "fine" that they have done, kudos to you.

I get it and I am competitive that way too. Thing is though, they have had the rosters both this year if healthy, and in 2019 to win it all. What they are missing is 2 bulldog starting pitchers. 

Every team is missing them right now except teams like Houston, Yankees, Dodgers, maybe Atlanta. And let's be honest, those are the only teams that have a shot without lightning striking.

[Battle ur tail off]

11 hours ago, beckmt said:

I don't think we are going to win with only 4 players starting who started the season.  And many are out for a fair amount of time.  We now have multiple pitchers that will be interesting which one they keep(my guess is the Archer and Bundy will not be back) as we have Ryan, Gray, Winder, Ober, Maeda, Mahle, Varland and others as starters, not counting Paddock who could be back later.  For relievers we have Duran, Alacla, Lopez, Thielbar with either additions or some minor leaguers stepping up.  

 

Here's the only thing though. With that gaggle of starters, we still at best just win our division. 

We need someone from within our system(preferrably 2) to be able to step in a give us a 180 inning, under 3 ERA season or we have no shot at REALLY contending. Right now, that looks like #3 and 4 starters galore. 

That or our bullpen has to be filled with absolute HAMMERS. Right now we have 1 or 2 I would classify in that category. 

[Battle ur tail off]

17 hours ago, bean5302 said:

While I strongly advocate for the importance of an "ace" type pitcher, the Kansas City Royals won the 2016 World Series without one. Edinson Volquez led the pitching staff with a 3.55 ERA and 3.82 FIP. Journeyman Chris Young had a career year, but he was converted to a reliever down the stretch before suddenly being thrust back into a starting role for the playoffs.

I think Sonny Gray is good enough to lead the rotation, but if he's only going to be allowed to pitch 4-5 innings, it's not going to matter much anyway.

I think it was 2015 and their bullpen was maybe the best in the history of baseball that season also!! Have to have one or the other. Can't be middle of the road to poor in both categories and expect to contend. 

 

[bean5302]

27 minutes ago, Battle ur tail off said:

I think it was 2015 and their bullpen was maybe the best in the history of baseball that season also!! Have to have one or the other. Can't be middle of the road to poor in both categories and expect to contend. 

 

Your strawman is noted.

[SpicyGarvSauce]

2 hours ago, Battle ur tail off said:

I get it and I am competitive that way too. Thing is though, they have had the rosters both this year if healthy, and in 2019 to win it all. What they are missing is 2 bulldog starting pitchers. 

Every team is missing them right now except teams like Houston, Yankees, Dodgers, maybe Atlanta. And let's be honest, those are the only teams that have a shot without lightning striking.

You're kidding if you think this roster, if healthy, was built to win it all.

From opening day, this team had little-to-no quality SP depth, and the bullpen was an absolute cluster f.