The 2022 Twins Are Now Built For October

[Ted Schwerzler]

As the rigors of the 2022 Major League Baseball season continue to take their toll on the Minnesota Twins, it becomes more of a limp to the finish than a sprint. Should they make the Postseason, however, this team may wind up being built for October.

 

Image courtesy of Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports

Let’s preface this with an adjustment of expectations. Are the Minnesota Twins legitimate World Series contenders? No, absolutely not. Unless something significant changes, this club will be lucky to win the division. However, if you’re hoping for an end to the nearly two-decade-long drought for a Postseason victory, that could set up well.

Rocco Baldelli’s club has next to no healthy bodies left. Jorge Polanco was left on the active roster for nearly a week without another player being added because there was not an obvious choice. Tyler Mahle is on the injured list again and won’t be eligible to return until roughly the final two weeks of the season. Sonny Gray has been held back at times, and the return of Byron Buxton does not appear close. All of that said, fighting through one game at a time makes sense for a battered squad.

Should the Twins find a way to outlast the Guardians and White Sox while they match up plenty over the final month, they can be as good as anyone during a short series. Should Gray find a clean bill of health by the end of the month, Mahle return, or Joe Ryan step up, the top three for the Twins can keep them competitive against any lineup.

On the offensive side of things, it’d seem likely that Buxton could return for a short term boost. Trevor Larnach will be back, and Polanco is ideally healthy by then. A lineup of mostly Minnesota’s best bats should be a fearsome foe to virtually any opposing pitcher.

Then there’s the reality that a Twins opponent likely wouldn’t be the New York Yankees. With a 12-team Postseason format, and Minnesota being the third seed in the American League, they’d face the six seed in a three-game Wild Card series. Right now the Seattle Mariners hold that spot, although it could also be the Tampa Bay Rays, Toronto Blue Jays, or Baltimore Orioles. None of those teams are bottom-feeders as you’d expect, but they should present a good opportunity to win given Minnesota would get three straight home games.

It’d be great to see Minnesota make a run through the month of September, health or otherwise, to establish a stranglehold on the division. Without their depth, it just doesn’t seem like a thought based in reality. If they can hold serve and squeak out a division win while their competition also looks weak, then circumstances could turn in their favor.

A team lacking health and depth will get exposed in a seven-game series, and probably in a five-game series as well. In a three-game series though, the talent this Twins team has should be enough for a win in October, and even an opportunity to advance.

Threading the needle between health and positioning will be a tough task for Minnesota’s staff the next few weeks, but this should be seen as an opportunity where getting in could be just enough.

 

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[bean5302]

Being built for October means starting pitching to me. While I think Gray has proven he's a good pitcher this year, there has to be a threat the best starter on the team could corner an opponent against a wall by tossing 7 or 8 great innings, leaving only the elite bullpen to close out the win.

Even if Gray had an immaculate game with 18 strikeout on 48 pitches going, Baldelli would pull him at the end of 6.0 innings in favor of Emilio Pagan instead of letting Gray face the order a 3rd time.

[wsnydes]

They may stack up fairly well in the rotation, but beyond that, I'm not as certain.  Sure, shortening the bullpen down with an off day between each game helps considerably, but I'm not sold.  And the bats, even if Polcano is healthy, Larnach and Buxton come back, can't produce runs consistently without the benefit of a home run.  

I'd absolutely love to be proven wrong, in fact I'd encourage it, but I'm not seeing any sort of October force to be worried about if I'm an opponent.

[mac098]

The only thing that Baldelli is consistent at is pulling pitchers after the 5th. Which is on par with most teams in the post-season. For the past few season, I haven't seen too many starters make it past the 5th, which is typically around the 3rd time through the order.

And the nice(?) things about this seasons Twins team is that they haven't relied on the HR's to win games. They've won a lot of games in a variety of ways this year. We just have to avoid playing the Yankees, Astros, and potentially the ChiSox. Every other team that is in the hunt we have the opportunity to get a win against. WS is definitely out the running barring any severe injuries to key players for other teams. 

With our injured players starting to come back and the Minor leagues starting to wind down, some of those that need the rehab games are not going to be able to get them. So I honestly wouldn't expect those players to be able to make an impact right away. I think they might spend a little more time on the IL to be able to get some more work in to be able to make that impact.

[ashbury]

The arguments provided in this article amount to basically ifs, ifs, and more ifs, in my opinion.

[chpettit19]

At this point I'd call this season a success if the Twins win a playoff game and break "the streak." And I actually think it'd be a really important win. Even if they lose the other 2 games in the wild card round. Taking that pressure off the 2023 team would be huge. They all tend to say the right things and act like "the streak" doesn't bother them cuz they weren't here for all of it, but they're human, and there is absolutely added pressure to not be on a team that extends the streak, even if you weren't on the team that started it.

And I do think that a relatively healthy Twins team could take a game in the wild card round. If the injured team can get them there.

[RpR]

1 hour ago, mac098 said:

And the nice(?) things about this seasons Twins team is that they haven't relied on the HR's to win games. 

Lack of said same has cost them a LOT of games; they really had nothing to replace it.  A lot of runners on base left standing there with no where to go.

[KnoblauchWasFramed]

There was a typo in the headline that you missed so I went ahead and fixed it for you;

The 2022 Twins Are Not Built For October

Oh man, I thought I was way to old to use they Millennial code words, but after reading this article I literally had a bout of ROTFL followed by a huge fit of LMFAO.  And you forgot to mention one huge road block that's continually finding new inventive ways to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory - Rocco's Spreadsheet,   

If short starts and piggybacking with long bullpen outings was a winning stragedy in short series, why is the Twins record only two games over .500 when they play tons of games against the Royal & Tigers & White Sox?  If the Twins somehow pull off a miracle and get into the playoffs here's my prediction for Game One.  Gray gets through 5 innings giving up 1 run on 3 hits with 5 Ks and 3BBs, but is at 75 pitches.  Meanwhile the Twins have, as standard recent output, have a 2 run lead.  What do you think Rocco is going to do?  Exactly, he's going to pull Gray and go to the bullpen and within the next 2 innings the lead will be gone and the Twins will be trailing.  And if the same exact scenario exists in Game Two Rocco will go ahead and do the same exact thing to Mahle or Ryan.  And just that quick the Twins are 2 and done.  

 

[mac098]

19 minutes ago, RpR said:

Lack of said same has cost them a LOT of games; they really had nothing to replace it.  A lot of runners on base left standing there with no where to go.

 

Exactly. Which is why we may not actually be built for October. We are team that can get players on base, but cannot get those players in. We are tied for 7th with 102 GIDP  which goes to show that we are too consistently putting runners on and leaving them on, especially considering we are making more flyball outs than ground ball outs. 

[mac098]

4 minutes ago, KnoblauchWasFramed said:

There was a typo in the headline that you missed so I went ahead and fixed it for you;

The 2022 Twins Are Not Built For October

Oh man, I thought I was way to old to use they Millennial code words, but after reading this article I literally had a bout of ROTFL followed by a huge fit of LMFAO.  And you forgot to mention one huge road block that's continually finding new inventive ways to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory - Rocco's Spreadsheet,   

If short starts and piggybacking with long bullpen outings was a winning stragedy in short series, why is the Twins record only two games over .500 when they play tons of games against the Royal & Tigers & White Sox?  If the Twins somehow pull off a miracle and get into the playoffs here's my prediction for Game One.  Gray gets through 5 innings giving up 1 run on 3 hits with 5 Ks and 3BBs, but is at 75 pitches.  Meanwhile the Twins have, as standard recent output, have a 2 run lead.  What do you think Rocco is going to do?  Exactly, he's going to pull Gray and go to the bullpen and within the next 2 innings the lead will be gone and the Twins will be trailing.  And if the same exact scenario exists in Game Two Rocco will go ahead and do the same exact thing to Mahle or Ryan.  And just that quick the Twins are 2 and done.  

 

 

You are absolutely correct. The Twins tied for dead last (25) with the Nationals. We are also sitting at 26 Blown Saves, which counts all of our bullpen arms. So can we trust the BP after the starter gets pulled? Not exactly, even though we are 3rd in the league for most holds (92). So we have a consistently inconsistent BP to this point.

So that leaves me with this. Either Rocco needs to let the starters off the leash, or he just needs to use all 13 pitchers in the game. Maybe that is his strategy. Limit innings in the regular season so they can go longer in the post-season. The issue with that strategy is that we need to make the post-season first. 

[tarheeltwinsfan]

IT IS SHOWTIME ! No more "It's a long season." No more "Let's wait for the Kansas City series." As Elvis sang: "It's now or never". The loser goes home. No wild card. It is September Madness. Get serious or get gone. Win or wither. Fight or fail. It is September and the autumn leaves are beginning to fall. I LOVE THIS SUSPENSE. GO TWINS. One Game At a Time. One bat at a time. One pitch at  a time. IT IS SHOWTIME !

[DJL44]

Dylan Bundy would probably start Game 2 if the playoffs began today unless they decided to go with Louie Varland. The Twins are NOT built for October.

[SwainZag]

3 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Dylan Bundy would probably start Game 2 if the playoffs began today unless they decided to go with Louie Varland. The Twins are NOT built for October.

If the Playoffs started tomorrow, Games 1 and 2 would almost no doubt be Gray and Ryan.  

[wavedog]

They are built for October if that means their strength is watching football and going trick-or-treating.   I do have to hand it to the team for staying in the race despite injuries, bullpen blowups, lousy base-running and situational hitting.    In large part that is due to having a weak division this year.    If they get these injured players back - will they immediately step in and perform or by the time they get acclimated back will the season be over?   Or will they get re-injured or suffer new injuries?  The one constant with the team is having a revolving crew of injured players.  Make no mistake - I will be rooting for the team to get hot and take the division title but the team is going to have to step up and play much better than we have seen in a while.    As for if we make October - we are not playing sound fundamental baseball and we don't have a big enough talent advantage to overcome that which would likely lead to a quick playoff exit.         

[DJL44]

15 minutes ago, SwainZag said:

If the Playoffs started tomorrow, Games 1 and 2 would almost no doubt be Gray and Ryan.  

Ryan has been demonstrably worse than Bundy lately. Ryan has an .800 OPS against and 5.74 ERA in the 2nd half of the season versus Bundy's .657 OPS against and 3.55 ERA. Joe Ryan should not be in anyone's playoff rotation.

[GeorgiaBaller]

As your summary brought out, this team should own their own medical facility.  I am amazed at how long it takes players to come back from pretty minor ailments----but none the less, the list is long.  

To be fair, with the constant lineup juggle for days off and injuries, Rocco has done about as well as anyone could have with the MASH crew this year.  Can he add value to improve them when he has a healthy roster?  That's more the area of my concern.  I don't see him optimizing the talent or the game management---but what do I know.

Built for October?  The playoffs are made for pitching..........hmmmm.....maybe the team should just stay at home.

[GeorgiaBaller]

With the new pitch clock coming, Sonny Gray's walk rate will definitely be up.  I am not sure if he or Pagan take longer on average to deliver---but I get a few naps in and don't miss a thing.

[SwainZag]

17 minutes ago, GeorgiaBaller said:

With the new pitch clock coming, Sonny Gray's walk rate will definitely be up.  I am not sure if he or Pagan take longer on average to deliver---but I get a few naps in and don't miss a thing.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/pitch-tempo?season_start=2022&season_end=2022&n=250&split=no&team=MIN&type=Pit&with_team_only=1

 

Gray is pretty average with bases empty,  but it's a slog when they are on base.   Pagan is just slow all the time. 

[mikelink45]

Ted, you keep trying to get us all on a positive vibe, but the team works against you.  
So we are going to get all these injured Twins back and they are going to have their timing back with them.  Sit out 60 days and you are ready to go?  This time of year there is no time for rehab.  

We  have already seen Maeda taken off our hoped for list.  Jeffers keeps moving further back like Larnach.  Polanco and Buxton have already demonstrated that whatever nagging injuries they have it is limiting their production.

Mahle is not coming back, Paddock is not coming back. 

We have already had a season of losing to teams that have a chance for the WS.  How is that going to stop?

Lopez is doing his Pagan imitation and the BP is overworked.  

Rocco has not adapted as the season progressed.

I hope you are right, but from my chair it does not look good. 

[ashbury]

10 minutes ago, SwainZag said:

Gray is pretty average with bases empty,  but it's a slog when they are on base.   Pagan is just slow all the time. 

Because someone's on base against Pagan, all the time?

/ okay, the bases are clear after each home run

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Imagine where this team would be with solid pitching. 

At least a half dozen games up in the standings and looking to put away Cleveland for good these next 8 of 11 games. The last two series against Chicago would be a mere formality, letting starters work shorter starts, letting some callups pitch from the pen, and setting up the postseason rotation. Or maybe none of that, but instead they would be playing to win to overtake the Yankees for second best record. I don't understand the need to sugar coat every single bad thing this team is doing, but then again, you did get my mouse click like everyone elses. 

[TopTwinsFan]

My biggest concern is that Baldi and Tito are polar opposites. Tito know how to get the most out of his players and put them in a position to win. Baldelli does the opposite. Hopefully Garlick wont be batting first tonight (another example of how the Twins have to win despite Rocco's management)

[Riverbrian]

3 hours ago, ashbury said:

The arguments provided in this article amount to basically ifs, ifs, and more ifs, in my opinion.

Ifs occur in any article that is set in the future. ?

 

[Rosterman]

The joy of the playoffs is that you can get by with 3 or 4 starters. Piggback those guys.

But the key will be a healthy and productive lineup. We still need Kepler. We need Jeffers. We don't need Sano.

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[USAFChief]

"I'll take "TD Headlines That Cause A Double Take" for one thousand, Alex."

[rv78]

I think the headline was suppose to read "The 2022 Twins are now built for October 2023".

[Nashvilletwin]

…..too bad we aren’t built for April through September.

[Danchat]

I don't know how anyone could watch this team the past 6-8 weeks and come to this conclusion... they're clearly not built to go on any sort of run. They are barely treading water in the worst division in baseball! Not to mention how horrifically they play when they face the likes of the Yankees/Dodgers/Astros. If they do reach the postseason, it's probably the weakest team they've reached it since... I don't even know when. Heck, I'd take the 2017 squad over this one. They're poised to add on to their playoff loss streak if they do sneak in. 

[ashbury]

5 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

Ifs occur in any article that is set in the future. ?

 

That's true of all science fiction.  With enough ifs, any article drifts into candidacy for publication in Analog Science Fiction and Fact.

• If Gray has a clean bill of health
• If Mahle isn't done for the season
• If Ryan becomes better
• If Buxton comes back at all
• If Larnach's batting woes were injury induced
• If Polanco comes back healthy

I'm only barely paraphrasing what was the heart of the article, paragraphs 4 and 5.

My focus on "if" didn't even include taking issue with a statement like "they can be as good as anyone during a short series."  Even fully healthy, no, they can't.  Except in the very basic, literal sense that sometimes even the Nationals beat the Dodgers, and the Twins are indeed better than the woeful Nats.

[dxpavelka]

Great.  Now we just gotta hope we get there.  Reminder:  Hope is not a strategy.