Five Worst Developments for the Minnesota Twins in 2022

[Ted Schwerzler]

Coming off a 2021 Major League Baseball season that the Minnesota Twins would like to forget, there’s no denying that this version of the club has been much better. However, you’d be hard-pressed to find someone that didn’t expect more of this club, and while injuries have caused problems, there’s been performances leaving much to be desired.

Image courtesy of Nick Wosika-USA TODAY Sports

Plenty of blame has been placed on Rocco Baldelli and the combination of Derek Flavey and Thad Levine. Some of that may be warranted, but the production, or lack thereof, falls on the shoulders of players. Whether through injury or ineffectiveness, Minnesota was certainly hoping to get more than they did this season from several different talents.

There have been a few guys that could find themselves contending for the least valuable player to the Twins this season, but these five are the ones that stick out to me.

Joe Smith
Over the offseason there was only one bullpen addition made to a team that needed a turnaround in relief. Smith came in as a 38-year-old with shaky peripherals from last season. He’s a slider pitcher with a funk delivery that relies on deception to carry him. At no point was anyone deceived and the modest strikeout totals he used to generate never were present. Smith gave up homers in bunches and the largest issue here was probably that the front office held on too long.

Jorge Alcala
Disappointing not for performance, but lack thereof, Alcala was expected to be a key contributor in this bullpen. He was arguably the guy expected to step up as Jhoan Duran has, but ultimately contributed just three innings this season. Alcala suffered an arm injury and then setback after setback before his continually delayed timeline was updated to be through the end of the season. He’d be a big boost for the 2023 squad, but it’s hard to count on what he may be at that point.

Alex Kirilloff
Another injury-riddled season, Kirilloff underwent season-ending wrist surgery a year ago. Then he shut down his offseason routine because it didn’t entirely heal. He played through it for a while with muted results, went to St. Paul figured out how to make it work, then saw it flare up to the point of being unusable. Kirilloff was expected to be the first baseman and play plenty for Minnesota. Instead he underwent an even more significant procedure and now is a massive question mark coming into 2023. Still young, he can be an integral part of this club’s future, but his health must get right first.

Gary Sanchez
Acquired to be a rotational catcher with Ryan Jeffers, Sanchez was billed as being a potential solution given a fresh chance. Despite leaving New York, he’s been the same bad catcher we’ve seen for years, and without the occasional longball, there’d be no highlights to touch on at all. Ryan Jeffers going down for a significant period of time has only highlighted how little Sanchez can be relied upon on a daily basis.

Emilio Pagan
Acquired the day before the season began, Minnesota saw an opportunity to acquire value in the form of Chris Paddack. Taylor Rogers didn’t work out for the Padres and was ultimately shipped to Milwaukee, but Pagan could single-handedly be blamed as the reason Minnesota would wind up losing the division. He’s been given opportunity because of his raw stuff, but with little ability to execute, he’s proven to be the same pitcher Tampa Bay gave up on a handful of years ago.

 

 

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[Mike Sixel]

I'd give Pagan all five spots if possible. I don't get how three years of being BAD at your job allows you to stay on the team because you have "stuff". 

Buxton could be an honorable mention, frankly. Outside the start of the year, they've gotten little to nothing from him

[D.C Twins]

Kirilloff the number one for me.

The entire career is at risk now for an elite hitting talent (bone shortening is far from a guaranteed fix). 

Wishing him the best, but I could not be more concerned

[RpR]

Sanchez is better than Jeffer was, on defense, similar with a bat.

Celestino's bat has been on a steady downhill trend.

[Craig Arko]

Pretty sure Sano figures in here someplace too.

[Vanimal46]

#1: The pitching pipeline depleting due to injury or performance. Winder, Ober, Alcala, Canterino, etc. getting injured for long periods of time. Balazovic and Sands taking massive steps back in AAA. 

#2: Emilio Pagan. Not even Alex Colomé single handedly caused as many losses as Pagan in a Twins uniform. 

#3: Alex Kirilloff. His career is at risk with his wrist injuries. We may never know if he’ll reach his star potential. 

#4: Miguel Sano. The last 3 seasons have been incredibly frustrating watching him play. Good riddance. 

#5: Derek Falvey. Trading for 2 high injury risk pitchers and both of them getting injured within 2-3 weeks after acquiring them. 

[ashbury]

58 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Buxton could be an honorable mention, frankly. Outside the start of the year, they've gotten little to nothing from him

And yet in terms of WAR, which more resembles a counting stat than a rate stat, he still currently leads the team this season.

[USAFChief]

1. The Pitching Pipeline(tm) is, predictably IMO, the biggest disappointment. And unfortunately, I don't think ANYone will be touting it this offseason.

 

2. Buxton. A couple scintillating weeks to start the season, then the "100 game plan" which featured thoroughly unremarkable results, and then the seemingly inevitable trip to the IL, from which we may or may not see a return.

3. Falvine. Whether through poor decision making (Rogers trade) or poor luck, we're left with Nick Gordon hitting 4th or 5th, no starter seemingly capable of a 6 inning start, and question marks at more positions than not.

4. Everything else.

[Blyleven2011]

Lots of possibilities for disappointment  ...

Did everyone forget about duffey  ...

[Mike Sixel]

9 minutes ago, ashbury said:

And yet in terms of WAR, which more resembles a counting stat than a rate stat, he still currently leads the team this season.

Truth. All of that was amassed early, though. Imagine if he was healthy on that pace.....hence an honorable mention that it is bad he's not. Like, 1-2 wins bad (not Pagan bad, though).

[Whitey333]

Pagan to me is the number one issue.  The geniuses that say he has great stuff then send him out and watch him blow so many games.  Don't these people see the results?  He's terrible.  He's been terrible for 3 years.  It's a joke.  Buxton?  He's not a real disappointment.  This is the 8th year now of injuries.  We should be used to that by now.  What's more frustrating is people expecting him to be something he isn't.  That is a full time superstar player.  And then act surprised when he is hurt again.  We only have 7 more seasons of this.  Sano?  Time to let him go.  Kirilloff is frustrating because he has raw talent but is always injured.  I hope his career isn't over. Falvey trading for pitchers with injuries then acts surprised when they get injured.  Lots of twins candidates this year.  Good article! Well written!

[TwinsDr2021]

To be honest there has been so many it is hard to believe this team is where it is at.

Bullpen, Sano, AK, Laranch, to me Gray has been a disappointment he might get to 130 innings? Polanco, Correa, Buxton (really more of a top of the lineup things for long stretches) the list goes on and on.  But the biggest has to be the injuries to the pipeline or just pitchers in general.

Pagen isn't a huge disappointment to me, didn't think he would be more than a middle relief guy, it is a bigger disappoint that he is still on the team and that isn't on him.

 

 

[old nurse]

The Twins have had the second most players on the injured list. The Twins have had the second most days on the injured list, That holds true if you look at just pitchers. The numbers are courtesy of sportsrac. They are only in the middle for salary.  Now, if they brought along the training theories of Cleveland with them, you can’t blame the training staff. Cleveland has the second fewest pitchers and days on the list. I am not sure when they changed the training staff but in 18 an 19 they were near the bottom of the list and have been moving up every year sine 2020

[Rosterman]

#1 - The lack of a closer. You don't win championship with closer-by-committee. Add in the fact that you are going to pitch starters only five innings for most of the season, you better have a solid bullpen pipeline plan. For some reason, the Twins didn't feel Rogers would be the closer, or they felt whatever $$$ was too much for a lefty set-up guy. The fact that they sent along the salary cash to San Diego totally confused me. On paper, this was a plus trade: Paddack was supposed to be a part of the rotation, albeit another guy who would probably be carefully used to get 30 starts and 150 innings. We are getting neither. Pagan was a gamble (like Colome last year). Okay if you aren't winning games and need a closer. But to rely on him for saves - forget it. Siging a Smith is okay for a moment, hoping to change him out at midseason.

#2 - Sano. One expected anything from him that was more than what the Twins got. In his potential "walk" season, or option season, he became deadwood. Left the Twins vulnerable at first base and designated hitter. Sure, it has been nice that the Twins have been able to rotate guys thru the designated hitter position, and after a slow start Miranda has become the multi-position guy without a position. No one would say that Arraez would be playing the most innings at first base. Even Kirilloff, who was supposed to be the first base guy of the future was trending more towards the outfield. I'm just glad Miranda is NOT in the oufield.

#3 - The outfield. We are seeing one of the issues of an incentive-laden contract based on games played. The Twins just have to hope that they can get $100 million production out of Buxton for the length of his contract. But like how signing Mauer for an expensive longterm contract because he was a catcher, Buxton was signed because of what he brings to centerfield. That we are in the division hunt with an outfield of Celestino, Cave, Garlick, Billy Hamilton, and a trending down (and maybe injured) Kepler...makes one want Gordon back in the outfield rather than subbing at second base. Injuries have really shown in this arena. No Kirilloff. No Larnach. If the Twins weren't still contending, would've been nice to put Wallner out there.

#4 - Rotation. Who would've thought that Bundy and Archer would be leding the club with 24 starts. Okay, Ryan has 21 and Gray 22. All four are above 100 innings. That is good. And look to finish out the season. Nine other pitchers (Smeltzer 12, Ober 7, Winder 6, Paddack 5, Mahle 4, Sands 3, Sanchez 3, Gonzalez 2, Varland 1) either show that the Twins have a lot of depth, or.....   The Twins have Balazovic, Henriquez, Strotman, Enlow on the 40-man. None will pitch for the team in 2022. None of the four have actually put up numbers that would make you want to keep them beyond this season. 17 pitchers mentioned above. No #1 starter emerged. The amount of innings pitched have hurt the bullpen.

#5 - Field management. I have long given up on line-up management, from the days you try and bat as much one way or the other against certain pitchers, of the need to bat R/L/R/L/R/L. So much analytics. Which batters work the count. Who is better to have try to be on base for someone who puts it on the ground. Can players adjust against the shift. Why do pitchers throw perfect balls to hit, that are hit, and hard...but the fielder is standing right there. Anyone know how to bunt? Baldelli seems to have settled down to a more basic lineup (why would Garlick ever bat first). But then we have the bullpen, having to come into a game in the 4th or 5th inning consistently. Worked fine when you had 14 or even 15 pitchers. But too often semed to be a bullpen usage chart with pre-ordained "who is pitching today and when" (okay, I know that is pushing it, but....) on the wall. Was Wes Johnson that good that the pitching fell apart when he left? 

#6 - Did I expect the Twins to be competitive? Well, it seems like the potential "come to the game" crowd is ignoring baseball, coming off a COVID no-no, a partial TV only season, and a player strike. Going downtown Minneapolis, especially riding the light-rail, isn't high on the list of many these days for some odd reason. The Twins are winning. But barely. The good part is that so are the White Sox and Indians...still. No one ran away with the division, although with a few well-bullpened games the Twins could've been sitting on a substantial lead. A lot of empty seats. But the team is playing good baseball. Getting hits, scoring runs, having close games. Player ups and downs. Lots of young talent. If you go to a game, the atmoisphere is great, the skyline gorgeous, and the food decent. Unless they totally tank, the Twins will have a decent season.

[Boom Boom]

1 hour ago, old nurse said:

The Twins have had the second most players on the injured list. The Twins have had the second most days on the injured list, That holds true if you look at just pitchers. The numbers are courtesy of sportsrac. They are only in the middle for salary.  Now, if they brought along the training theories of Cleveland with them, you can’t blame the training staff. Cleveland has the second fewest pitchers and days on the list. I am not sure when they changed the training staff but in 18 an 19 they were near the bottom of the list and have been moving up every year sine 2020

They have had their share of injuries, but I don't think anyone was counting on Alex Kiriloff or Royce Lewis or Randy Dobnak carrying the team to a pennant.

Besides those you had Maeda (who has been out since before the season), Sano (who was awful) and Buxton (which shouldn't have been a surprise).  I don't cut the Twins any slack for Paddack or Mahle.  

My #1 suspect is the FO.

 

 

 

 

[rv78]

I'd have to say #1 would be the FO and the Manager. Their "Plan" has been a failure that they won't deviate from no matter how bad it is. Having starters go 5 innings then turning to a suspect bullpen to try to finish every game for a W is not a good plan. Sure, no one expects them to win 162 games with that kind of plan, but half way through the season they should have been able to see the plan is not working as good as it was expected. Was there any change to the "Plan" at any point of the season to correct it? No. Case in point in todays first game. Varland is pitching great, and here comes the third time through the order. Rocco goes to his bullpen and there goes the lead and the game. When the bullpen is losing as many games as your starters the "Plan" to go to the bullpen no matter what should be trashed. The numbers don't lie. Be the analytic people you claim to be and use those numbers too. Why are they ignored? If they don't fit the narritive that the "Plan" was built upon at the start of  the season does that mean they are wrong? Hardly. Why is the race for the division so close? Is it because the bullpen and the "Plan" to use it so extensively was wrong? I think so. If the starters would have been allowed to pitch deeper into games when they were pitching well, how many more games could have this team won? 5? 10? 15? The bullpen would have been rested more. With rest being so important for most of the players why is the "Plan" to over-work the bullpen a good "Plan"? Playoffs or not, the FO, Rocco and the "Plan" have been the biggest failure.

[DocBauer]

No matter any issues I had with the construction of the team, primarily the bullpen, my absolute #1 WORST part of this season is ABSOLUTELY INJURIES. And I don't know how anyone, IMO, can debate that. Despite any misgivings about Paddack or Mahle, (who sure looked healthy when traded for and his first 3 starts), Alcala and Winder could have made a major difference. Even with Kepler being an almost zero factor after his foot injury, what kind of difference might a healthy Larnach and Kirilloff and Lewis have made? Ever think you would actually miss Garlick after we ran through a veritable gauntlet of LHSP for a while there? And, sorry for those who don't like him, but losing Jeffers was a big blow, IMO. My greatest wish for 2023...along with a handful of moves...is to just see better health overall for the Twins and to actually see the team, ON THE FIELD, that the Twins could potentially employ. Man would I like to see that.

2] Sticking with a single, detrimental arm like Pagan, stubbornly, for so long and after so much history of poor performance was hugely disappointing. When the pen is bailing out water in the boat the best they can and he kept pouring buckets right back in was inexcusable. Whether they made an earlier trade or auditioned ANYBODY the results couldn't have been worse.

3] Sanchez has been a slight disappointment to me. I wasn't expecting anything great. I hoped for better defense, and I think we got that. I hoped for his power and OK OB ability to remain with just a "nudge" in his batting toward the positive. And really, there's been none of that. When crunch time happened and he was given opportunity, he didn't come through. Time to move on.

4] I know I'll get pushback on this, but I've been disappointed in Correa. I've become a fan. I like the guy. I love his defense, despite metrics saying he's had a down year. I'm not saying he hasn't been a great teammate or leader or that I want him gone. But while it's easy to point to OPS+ and other statistics and saying he's doing just fine, I think numbers can ring hollow at times. Again, I like him. He's a good ballplayer. He's done some nice things here in 2022. But it just seem to me he's come through near often enough in key moments. Maybe it's perspective.

I can spill out my thoughts about some missed offseason opportunities by the FO, but we're talking about the SEASON, and not the offseason here. So I'm leaving it at that.

 

[terrydactyls]

10 hours ago, DocBauer said:

I can spill out my thoughts about some missed offseason opportunities by the FO, but we're talking about the SEASON, and not the offseason here. So I'm leaving it at that.

 

As an "unofficial" moderator for Twins Daily, I am giving you a warning for violating rule 216.8.(A).22.(d) which states "commenters must not stick to the topic of any thread after the first paragraph.". ? ?

[old nurse]

16 hours ago, Boom Boom said:

They have had their share of injuries, but I don't think anyone was counting on Alex Kiriloff or Royce Lewis or Randy Dobnak carrying the team to a pennant.

Besides those you had Maeda (who has been out since before the season), Sano (who was awful) and Buxton (which shouldn't have been a surprise).  I don't cut the Twins any slack for Paddack or Mahle.  

My #1 suspect is the FO.

 

 

 

 

Whatever. They were counting on Larnach and Kiriloff  in the outfield and Sano at 1b. Considering the backups past Arraez it should be obvious that they were counting on them. I guess not. They traded assets for Paddack.  Even if you don’t count Maeda, they are still high on the list. The players were healthy when traded for. Manipulate data to suit idea

[twinfan]

How can you include Sano as a disappointment? It's actually been a positive that he hasn't played this season since Miranda and Gordon have been discovered. For some reason, the Twins have not developed a bullpen that can be counted on. In today's game, you need to have 5 dependable relievers. The Twins may have 1 or 2. Having Duffy bomb out this year didn't help. Maybe he can come back next year. Is there help on the farm? Who knows but they won't get the chance this year unless we get swept by Cleveland this weekend. Finally, look, when Tampa gives up on a pitcher, you know he can't be very good. They have a history of producing excellent pitching.

[Nate Palmer]

Not having Alcala is an aspect of this season that I have come back to often and wondered "what if?" His presence and development just seems to be a core piece of how the bullpen was supposed to be constructed and without him we saw how quickly the 'pen became shallow. And yes, the FO put themselves in that position of lacking depth. 

[Sean.h]

20 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

Truth. All of that was amassed early, though. Imagine if he was healthy on that pace.....hence an honorable mention that it is bad he's not. Like, 1-2 wins bad (not Pagan bad, though).

Yeah and I got derided a while ago for floating the idea of putting a clearly hobbled person on the DL. What happens when you play through injuries? Bad performance + original injury won't heal + potentially other injuries.

[Minny505]

Sanchez?

I know I was the wet blanket on here regarding the celebration of acquiring Sanchez and I have actually been impressed with him. He's hit what I expected, but he went from the worst defensive catcher in baseball to being an above average defensive backstop. If anything, I would categorize him as something that went better than expected. He's at least playable as a backup catcher. He hadn't been that since 2019.

[Minny505]

On 9/7/2022 at 11:14 AM, Blyleven2011 said:

Lots of possibilities for disappointment  ...

Did everyone forget about duffey  ...

Yup. Duffey was a MUCH bigger disappointment than Joe Smith. We all had hope that Duffey could be a legit 7th/8th inning guy.

Joe Smith on the other hand was signed as the RP version of Jake Taylor, hoping he could hang on for "one more good year in the sun". 

[Minny505]

On 9/7/2022 at 12:52 PM, old nurse said:

The Twins have had the second most players on the injured list. The Twins have had the second most days on the injured list, That holds true if you look at just pitchers. The numbers are courtesy of sportsrac. They are only in the middle for salary.  Now, if they brought along the training theories of Cleveland with them, you can’t blame the training staff. Cleveland has the second fewest pitchers and days on the list. I am not sure when they changed the training staff but in 18 an 19 they were near the bottom of the list and have been moving up every year sine 2020

Agreed. Singling out Alcala is sort of strange. You could essentially pick out any of the pitchers on the list below:

• Paddock
• Ober
• Dobnak
• Winder
• Alcala
• Coulombe

Having just any two of those guys available for, more or less, the full season would probably all add a couple extra wins minimum. 

Throw in Lewis, Sano, Kirilloff, and to a lesser extent, Larnach, and it's kind of amazing they are .500.

Even teams like the Yankees can't sustain that level of injury...except when the Yankee Slump Busters come for a visit.

[Strombomb]

Wow. Lots of disappointment(s).

I agree with 95% of the comments above but can't believe Kepler isn't being mentioned more. 

.231 BA, .677 OPS

Of course, a lot of disappointment comes constantly seeing him in the clean-up role ?  Thanks Baldelli?

[Major League Ready]

On 9/7/2022 at 12:41 PM, Vanimal46 said:

#1: The pitching pipeline depleting due to injury or performance. Winder, Ober, Alcala, Canterino, etc. getting injured for long periods of time. Balazovic and Sands taking massive steps back in AAA. 

#2: Emilio Pagan. Not even Alex Colomé single handedly caused as many losses as Pagan in a Twins uniform. 

#3: Alex Kirilloff. His career is at risk with his wrist injuries. We may never know if he’ll reach his star potential. 

#4: Miguel Sano. The last 3 seasons have been incredibly frustrating watching him play. Good riddance. 

#5: Derek Falvey. Trading for 2 high injury risk pitchers and both of them getting injured within 2-3 weeks after acquiring them. 

Great list.  I might replace Lewis getting injured but that's just because I was so excited to see Lewis elevate his game in AAA and then play great when he got here when we really didn't know what to expect from him. At least I didn't know what to expect from him.

[gman]

I think we have 3 categories for players this year. Did better than expected, injured or did worst than expected.

Did better than expected:

Duran, Gordon, Maranda, Arraez, Jax, Moran

Injured - Everybody

Did worst than expected - Everybody else

 

[Linus]

Has to be the FO sitting out the most robust free agent pitching market watching their pitching degrade into a shot show and then being forced to give up valuable prospects to try and fix the original problem. Who is honestly surprised that Joe Smith wasn’t great or Gary Sanchez can’t catch?

[RpR]

3 minutes ago, Linus said:

Has to be the FO sitting out the most robust free agent pitching market watching their pitching degrade into a shot show and then being forced to give up valuable prospects to try and fix the original problem. Who is honestly surprised that Joe Smith wasn’t great or Gary Sanchez can’t catch?

Sanchez  is a very good catcher; they gave away the equivalent of penny stocks, Palacios proves that.

The fact the hitting is pathetic 4 out of 5 games is the the only thing that is really the only true bad developement.

Five runs beat the Twins and often Three will do it.