Mahle for Steer/Hajjar/Encarnacion-Strand - How did the Twins blow this one so badly??

[alexlegge]

It's a bad sign when the prospects you traded for a pitcher at the trade deadline are already outperforming that pitcher a month later. 

 

That being said, I'm more concerned about the Twins' medical staff than I am about "Falvine" per se.

Point 1: Everyone is taking too much time to recover from injuries. That has been the case the entire year.

Point 2: The whole Byron Buxton 2 games out of 3 ratio ended up with Buck hurt during the most crucial part of the schedule, leaving the team vulnerable to complete derailment, which is what we're seeing unfold in front of our eyes. It's unclear how to deploy Buxton properly, but I don't think this was the best strategy. If he's not injured, he's our best player and should be able to play more than 67% of the time. If he was dealing with nagging injuries, then he probably shouldn't have been playing 67% of the time. This solution was an overly simplistic approach to an absurdly complex puzzle.

Point 3: If the Twins were in pursuit of Mahle for a long time, as has been reported, I suspect that there's a reason the Reds caved in now rather than, say, last offseason. We seem to have been fleeced by them; Mahle's arm is clearly not right, and it sure makes me wonder if this is something that could have been caught earlier.

 

Thoughts?

[ashbury]

I'm convinced that advanced analytics has turned attention toward injury rates, and our Twins are somehow behind the curve relative to other teams.  I can't see any other explanation for the front office's moves that rarely if ever move from a more-injured player to a less-injured alternative.

[bird]

21 minutes ago, ashbury said:

I'm convinced that advanced analytics has turned attention toward injury rates, and our Twins are somehow behind the curve relative to other teams.  I can't see any other explanation for the front office's moves that rarely if ever move from a more-injured player to a less-injured alternative.

Ash, I'm wondering if their analytics reveal the same things in terms of injury rates, and what we're seeing is a strategy. Do you think it's possible that Falvey/Levine are also looking at some recovery rate data and making bets in an effort to gain advantage because of discount values associated with injured athletes?

In any event, my concern has to do with whether or not we're witnessing a level of hubris related to a belief in their own capacity to rehab guys and capture that discount. Lots of examples we can ponder.

And clearly, early as it is, the Mahle trade is at best worrisome.

[Beast]

Yeah.  This FO is just flat out bad.  No way around it at this point.  Enough excuses for these guys.

Calling it hubris, etc. gives them too much credit.  That insinuates some sort of competency.  I’ve seen none.

They won the lottery in 2019 with a bunch of prospects drafted and developed by someone else, and had Nelson Cruz fall in their lap because nobody wanted a 40 year old….in a year the ball happened to be superjuiced.  They took that and ran it into the ground in the playoffs.

Take that year off their record, and they’ve been absolutely abysmal at running the franchise.

But, hey, at least they created a bunch of cool Excel spreadsheets.

 

 

 

[Beast]

1 hour ago, ashbury said:

I'm convinced that advanced analytics has turned attention toward injury rates, and our Twins are somehow behind the curve relative to other teams.  I can't see any other explanation for the front office's moves that rarely if ever move from a more-injured player to a less-injured alternative.

Or is their specific approach creating more injuries?

They mess around with mechanics to maximize velocity.  They mess with pitch mixes that often results on throwing more sliders, etc. 

You take a guy that normally throws 92 with 30% sliders to 97 with 45% sliders, of course there’s going to be an adverse stress reaction.  Just like my dad bod would instantly and explosively breakdown if you did something that made me sprint as fast as Usain Bolt.  

I think that’s much more likely than there being some new God particle out there causing injuries that everyone else but Falvey has figured out.

Doesn’t really help that they keep intentionally trading for damaged goods.

[ashbury]

30 minutes ago, Beast said:

Or is their specific approach creating more injuries?

They mess around with mechanics to maximize velocity.  They mess with pitch mixes that often results on throwing more sliders, etc. 

You take a guy that normally throws 92 with 30% sliders to 97 with 45% sliders, of course there’s going to be an adverse stress reaction.  Just like my dad bod would instantly and explosively breakdown if you did something that made me sprint as fast as Usain Bolt.  

I think that’s much more likely than there being some new God particle out there causing injuries that everyone else but Falvey has figured out.

Doesn’t really help that they keep intentionally trading for damaged goods.

That doesn't explain the near-instantaneous breakdown of both Paddack and Mahle soon after acquisition, both of whom had been out with injuries with their prior teams too, not very long before their respective trades.  No pitching coach deconstructs a veteran's mechanics the first month he's with them.  The Twins FO OTOH have in multiple ways demonstrated an insensitivity to injury risk, also reflected in trading their previous #1 draft choice for a guy who had been far from a workhorse in recent seasons, and signing two starting pitching free agents who would be reasonably expected to shoulder (heh) only a light load of innings each;  Bundy and Archer have held up remarkably well but at a foreseen cost on the bullpen and in any case are just another aspect of knowingly taking on injury risk and then believing they can manage it.  A snark about God particles and an irrelevant reference to dad bods or Bolt don't pertain to front offices and pro athletes of a different sport than sprinting.  The Twins FO seems to be making decisions about perceived injury risk differently than other teams, most notably the ones they have traded with - and those decisions keep turning out badly - no God particles needed, just old fashioned hard work to keep up.

Analytics isn't fundamentally about creating formulas and ranked lists.  Sometimes shades of Gray (heh) are sufficient to make decisions, no less analytically than FIP or BABIP or all the rest of the alphabet soup everyone loves to hate.

I'm perfectly open to a discussion in some other thread about injuries to the young'uns in the vaunted Pitching Pipeline™ but this thread is about Mahle and I'm not personally interested in broadening even further than similar acquisitions.

[tony&rodney]

I'm not in the know about who Falvey generally likes or doesn't like. We did get Twins reporters writing that Falvey liked Mahle more than any pitcher available and we also know Falvey was enamored with Paddack. 

Although none of Gray, Bundy, or Archer were interesting to me, we all need to admit they have been serviceable. The hole has been hitting: risp, moving runners, situations, k's, and just low performance with the bats.

But Mahle? The stock has caved (pun intended).

[ashbury]

1 hour ago, bird said:

Ash, I'm wondering if their analytics reveal the same things in terms of injury rates, and what we're seeing is a strategy.

Yes, I actually do believe it's a combination of both, and you stated it better.  But I do wonder whether they've embraced the strategy because their analytics on injury rates (or the mitigation, as you suggest) is in some way more primitive than other teams.   Because, look at their roster construction this past off-season and into the regular season now.

Other teams aren't shy about raiding the Twins' personnel, so luring away a FO underling or two from Cin and SD, with a small promotion in job title, might be a good investment, just to pick their brains on what they've seen,.

[ashbury]

2 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

I'm not in the know about who Falvey generally likes or doesn't like. We did get Twins reporters writing that Falvey liked Mahle more than any pitcher available and we also know Falvey was enamored with Paddack.

We also heard, after the trade was finalized, that the Mets had turned thumbs down on a Paddack deal before us.

[Eris]

Sam Dyson should also be included on getting fleeced trading for an injured player. 1 time could be accidental, two is questionable, 3 times is indicative of a fundamental problem in evaluating pitchers for injuries/ injury risk. 

[gunnarthor]

I wasn't a big fan of the FO coming into the season so I'm ready to move on. I don't think they've done much to improve the Twins and, worse, have made baseball boring. Watching Gordon pitch tonight (to save the pitching staff?) was pathetic. I'll wait for the season to end but, right now, I don't see how we can keep supporting this crud.

[tony&rodney]

50 minutes ago, ashbury said:

We also heard, after the trade was finalized, that the Mets had turned thumbs down on a Paddack deal before us.

Yes. I found that odd at the time (that the Twins knew there were big issues but went ahead). 

[Aichiman]

1 hour ago, gunnarthor said:

I wasn't a big fan of the FO coming into the season so I'm ready to move on. I don't think they've done much to improve the Twins and, worse, have made baseball boring. Watching Gordon pitch tonight (to save the pitching staff?) was pathetic. I'll wait for the season to end but, right now, I don't see how we can keep supporting this crud.

I couldn't have said it better!

[Aichiman]

And the -Strand.  That one, I think, will be the cruelest cut of all!  We've got to clear house this winter.  It'd be nice if the Polads sold the team, as well. 

[howeda7]

The medical staff is under Falvey's supervision too. Time to clean house of them all and try again. He's a failure. 

[rwilfong86]

8 hours ago, Eris said:

Sam Dyson should also be included on getting fleeced trading for an injured player. 1 time could be accidental, two is questionable, 3 times is indicative of a fundamental problem in evaluating pitchers for injuries/ injury risk. 

You're absolutely right. There is something seriously wrong. 

[Irishman]

4 hours ago, howeda7 said:

The medical staff is under Falvey's supervision too. Time to clean house of them all and try again. He's a failure. 

Agreed....  FO is a real disappointment.   it is time to get rid of these FO, coaching staff, Baldelli and medical staff.  too many injuries.  Bad drafts and trades,

[Heistyman]

This trade reminds me of the Sam Dyson trade.  Do we even look at the medicals before falling in love with the player.

[Original_JB]

Just saying.....

Posted August 19

Come on. This is the Twins' crack medical staff, where 'bruises' turn into broken bones after a week or so; and 'strains' turn into 'torn this or thats'; This is just their first optimistic guess. I'm going to go big and bold and go on record that even if he makes another start this year, he'll come out early, and then we'll find out the actual level of his injury.

[Dave The Dastardly]

Impingements. They're not built into the Twins spreadsheets. Ergo, heretofore and nonetheless the Twins have a knack for trading for pitchers with bad wings. That don't fly... obviously. Other teams know this about our FO so they keep offering us "deals".

"Psst, buddy, have I got a deal for you... We got this pitcher that's sure to win a Sigh Young, a few dents here and there but come on, who don't?"

[RJA]

I think the FO has messed up on a lot of things, but the deadline acquisitions this year are really questionable.   Mahle is an example.  He is a nice pitcher with good stuff, but the whole world knew he had some issues earlier this season.  How many times have we seen it play out that a pitcher has a shoulder or arm issue that is reported to be minor, only to turn out a few months later to require surgery?  If the main reason you acquire pitching at the deadline is to help the team make the playoffs, why risk trading for a player that has had an issue earlier in the season.  Even if it does not end up requiring surgery, the chance that the injury reoccurs is pretty high.  And, to give up what they did was unbelievable.  But, how about Lopez.  We gave up a lot for a reliever that has had a good partial season after years of failure.  Doesn't it sound a little bit like a Pagan situation, one good brief run early in his career followed by 4 years of failure?  What made them believe Lopez was a good long term bet?  Why trade for a reliever with multi years of control, giving up excellent prospects, when he has no long term history of success?  I could go on and on about Paddack, Dyson, Happ, Shoemaker, Colome, etc., but I fear this FO has a level of arrogance that makes them believe they are smarter than everyone else--smartest guys in the room syndrome.  Throw in Cavaco and Sabato as number one picks and their record is pretty grim.  When they do make good choices, they trade them away.  God help us all.

[Rosterman]

13 major league players from the 40-man on the long-term IL. 19 current minor league players also out long-term, and a few doing "development" - whatever that means.

[Blyleven2011]

1 hour ago, RJA said:

I think the FO has messed up on a lot of things, but the deadline acquisitions this year are really questionable.   Mahle is an example.  He is a nice pitcher with good stuff, but the whole world knew he had some issues earlier this season.  How many times have we seen it play out that a pitcher has a shoulder or arm issue that is reported to be minor, only to turn out a few months later to require surgery?  If the main reason you acquire pitching at the deadline is to help the team make the playoffs, why risk trading for a player that has had an issue earlier in the season.  Even if it does not end up requiring surgery, the chance that the injury reoccurs is pretty high.  And, to give up what they did was unbelievable.  But, how about Lopez.  We gave up a lot for a reliever that has had a good partial season after years of failure.  Doesn't it sound a little bit like a Pagan situation, one good brief run early in his career followed by 4 years of failure?  What made them believe Lopez was a good long term bet?  Why trade for a reliever with multi years of control, giving up excellent prospects, when he has no long term history of success?  I could go on and on about Paddack, Dyson, Happ, Shoemaker, Colome, etc., but I fear this FO has a level of arrogance that makes them believe they are smarter than everyone else--smartest guys in the room syndrome.  Throw in Cavaco and Sabato as number one picks and their record is pretty grim.  When they do make good choices, they trade them away.  God help us all.

You took the words right out of my mouth ....

I totally agree that they do think of themselves as the smartest in the game ....

Steer has made his major league debut and  hit a homer and scored the winning run in his first game , something the twins seem to be lacking  ( winning runs ) 

[dxpavelka]

I love being surrounded by so many folks that know so much more than the folks getting paid to know stuff.

[jjswol]

Don't get me wrong, I am not a fan of this FO. I think they shoild should be all be fired because they just don't seem to know how to run a baseball team but they can build one heck of a FO staff. I would say that judging the Mahle trade at this point is just unfair, we need to see a longer term picture to really judge it one way or the other.

[jimbo92107]

Before consummating any trade for a pitcher, the Twins should require that he throws a full game bullpen session (100 pitches), timing every pitch and verifying that he's got good command. I have a feeling that Paddack and Mahle would have failed those tests. 

I can hardly wait to read that Mahle's torn labrum or rotator cuff is detected on a subsequent MRI. Get it fixed; see ya next year. 

Meanwhile, I wouldn't mind seeing if Louie Varland has something special he'd like to show us...

[jjswol]

53 minutes ago, dxpavelka said:

I love being surrounded by so many folks that know so much more than the folks getting paid to know stuff.

Just because someone gets paid for doing something doesn't mean they are good at it or know what they are doing.

[Winston Smith]

13 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

Yes. I found that odd at the time (that the Twins knew there were big issues but went ahead). 

But but they got Pagan.

[SkyBlueWaters]

Mahle is indicative of the half-measures this FO take when the pitching staff clearly needs help to reach the next level.

When The $#&! Yankees needed pitching, they went out and got Gerrit Cole.

When Houston needed pitching, they pried Verlander away from Detroit. 

The Dodgers' arms stockpile drives me insane.

So far the Twins have gone out and gotten the likes of Happ, Shoemaker, and the mending Archer. They signed Dobnak (career ERA in 125 IP, 4.94) to a long-term deal. I happen to like Bundy's bulldog approach, but he's long-in-the-tooth and not going to lead anyone deep in the playoffs.

Looking at Mahle's stats with Cincy, it shouldn't be a shock that he's struggled here. 

This FO came in with it understood that the pitching staff needed help. Falvey came in billed as the guy who built Cleveland's pitching, which led them to the world series.  I wouldn't ask that the media be too harsh in questioning them, but it's totally fair to ask what pitchers this FO sees at the front of a Twins rotation leading our excellent lineup deep into the playoffs.

 

 

[RJA]

38 minutes ago, jjswol said:

Don't get me wrong, I am not a fan of this FO. I think they shoild should be all be fired because they just don't seem to know how to run a baseball team but they can build one heck of a FO staff. I would say that judging the Mahle trade at this point is just unfair, we need to see a longer term picture to really judge it one way or the other.

Good comment about judging trades too early.  I think the point many are making about Mahle is why trade for him when he had an injury issue earlier this season if one of the main reasons you acquired him is to help you make the playoffs.  He might be great next year and the long term results of the trade may look better, but it does nothing for this year.  And, all of this is the result of the FO's unwillingness to sign free agent pitchers of quality.  They think that is too risky yet they happily trade for Paddack and Mahle, both of whom had some level of questions about their health.  And, free agent pitchers don't cost prospects, only money.  And that is the answer right there, money.  Plus, who have they brought up through the system as successful starters--Ober, and we don't yet know how good he will be, but he has promise.  Winder?  Injured.  Balazovic?  Can't get people out at AAA.  Canterino?  Injured.  Hajjar?  Povich?  Traded.  Varland and SWR?  Still in minors, but have promise.  Ryan?  Gray?  Obtained in trades.  Not a sparkling record methinks.