Is Jose Miranda…Underrated?

[Ted Schwerzler]

Last season the Minnesota Twins saw Jose Miranda put up one of the best seasons in prospect history. He terrorized Double-A pitching, earned a promotion to Triple-A, and then kept doing it. The former second round pick may still be flying under the radar despite the season he’s having in 2022.

 

People started to take notice of Jose Miranda last season after he combined to post a .973 OPS between Double and Triple-A. The 127 were played between the ages of 22 and 23, and while he was a former 2nd round pick, Miranda had never received top 100 prospect consideration.

Coming into 2022, Miranda made both Baseball America and MLB Pipeline’s top 100 lists. He was snubbed by Baseball Prospectus, and still largely looked at as a fringe contributor to those lists. Miranda didn’t do himself a ton of favors early this year. He posted just a .737 OPS in his first 21 games with the Saints, but then opportunity presented itself.

Called up on April 2, Miranda made his big league debut. 19 games in with the Twins, he was optioned back to Triple-A after compiling a .484 OPS and 14/2 K/BB. Once Royce Lewis went down with a season-ending injury though, Miranda never set foot at CHS Field. Back in the lineup for Minnesota on May 30, he has undergone what may be the most impressive rookie season in franchise history.

Over a period of 69 games, Miranda has routinely seen time at first base, third base, and designated hitter. He has batted anywhere from the top of the lineup to the bottom, and he’s tallied a ridiculous .838 OPS. He’s carried a .302 average and .346 on-base percentage while swatting 12 home runs and leading the club in runs batted in. Despite a terrible first month, he’s still managed to pull off a 120 OPS+ to date.

Maybe it’s because teammate Jhoan Duran has a triple-digit fastball and has carried the Twins bullpen, or maybe it’s because Minnesota remains flyover country, but it seems the performance has continued to go unnoticed nationally. Miranda turned 24 years old earlier this season and is still figuring things out as a Major League ballplayer. He has had to face pitchers multiple times, and work as the league, or more specifically the division, has adjusted to him.

It’s fair to note that Miranda is thwarted in overall value by analytical metrics such as fWAR. His total this season is 1.1, That puts him in a tie for 14th and well off the league-leading 3.6 pace set by Baltimore Orioles, Adley Rutschman. Much of this is derived from his defensive acumen. At first base, it’s been easy to see Miranda is stretched. He’s been worth -3 defensive runs saved in just over 380 innings, and only worth one defensive run saved in 216 innings at the hot corner. The Statcast metric, outs above average, doesn’t like him either. Throw in the double-digit starts at designated hitter and you now have a clearer picture.

None of this is to downplay what has taken place. Miranda spent the first month of the season playing at Triple-A. He spent the next month being unproductive, and frankly, terrible. From there, he’s been among the better players in the Major Leagues, rookie or otherwise. Duran has helped to steal some of the spotlight, but Minnesota hasn’t experienced this level of play from a hitter in their debut season for a long time.

If you’re watching Twins games on a daily basis and enjoying Miranda’s heroics, then you’ve appreciated the greater body of work. If you’re watching him play defense and catching an at-bat at a time, you’ve probably missed it. I don’t think it’s sugarcoating it though, to call this one of the best rookie seasons Twins fans have ever seen.

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[DJL44]

He's been playing all over the place and not starting consistently which will lead him to being underrated. He's also been brutal defensively, making a lot of rookie mistakes.

[tony&rodney]

Miranda has been a joy to watch hit this season and he has been quite productive. He seems to get bitten by two unfortunate items, one he can correct and one we hope disappears. Jose gets smitten by the high fastball and occasionally amps up where he could shoot right-field gaps. To be fair he does go the other way a decent amount of the time. The other item is that Miranda seems to let bad calls affect his plate appearances. He has had a number of egregious strikes called on pitches 4-6 inches off the plate. He needs to just see those calls early in the count as a foul ball.

Defensively, we need to remember that the emergence of Miranda was a little bit of a surprise and he has had to wedge between time for Urshela and Arraez. If Miranda gets a ton of infield work this offseason he can certainly improve to be an average third baseman. The movement between positions will slow his improvement to an extent. Still, this is a thing that may continue as Lewis and Lee approach playing time in the near future.

Hard to believe the Twins would be anywhere near .500 without Miranda this year. He has been a real find.

[PatPfund]

I love Miranda, believe he belongs in the Rookie Top Ten, and believe that like his hitting, his defense is getting better. He is a true gem.

But Twins all-time rookie? Tony Oliva's rookie year (1964) he hit .323, scored 109 runs, stole a dozen bags, hit 32 HR and 43 doubles, knocked in 94, won the AL batting title, finished fourth in AL MVP, and won ROY. (Then followed it up with another batting title the next year, the first time anyone in MLB history had won the batting title in each of their first two years.) That's a high rookie bar that nobody else in this franchise has ever come close to clearing.

[USAFChief]

22 minutes ago, PatPfund said:

 

But Twins all-time rookie? Tony Oliva's rookie year (1964) he hit .323, scored 109 runs, stole a dozen bags, hit 32 HR and 43 doubles, knocked in 94, won the AL batting title, finished fourth in AL MVP, and won ROY. (Then followed it up with another batting title the next year, the first time anyone in MLB history had won the batting title in each of their first two years.) That's a high rookie bar that nobody else in this franchise has ever come close to clearing.

Yeah, also Chuck Knoblauch, Rod Carew, Kent Hrbek, Francisco Liriano, Marty Cordova, just off the top of my head.

Also, "one of the best seasons in prospect history?"

 A "ridiculous .838 OPS?"

This article might have had a point, but I can't get past the hyperbole. 

 

[mikelink45]

I have been high on Miranda since the beginning but have to admit that I wavered when he started so bad.  Right now there is no one else I would prefer when someone is on base.

I understand that the nation does not see him like we do.  It the Twins were better he would get more spotlights.  Which is better Duran or Miranda????  I cannot choose.  Lacking one position is always going to hurt, but in the long run the only thing that matters is that he keeps hitting and holds up the middle of the order. 

[Doctor Gast]

Miranda has a lot of value and I'm sure the Twins had alot of calls from other teams liking to pick him up in a trade. But he doesn't get the recognition he deserves because of MN being small market. His glove isn't that impressive either but his bat has really came around, making him well liked here.

[puckstopper1]

Miranda has been a godsend offensively to a lineup that has often struggled to score runs.  I know people downplay RBI, but he is tied for the team lead after not playing the first month and playing poorly once he arrived.

This is driven by Miranda's .281 RISP average on a team that has an overall RISP of .249 which ranks 19th overall in all of MLB.

[farmerguychris]

Had he started the year in the big league, and had he not stumbled out of the gate I'm sure he would have more ROY votes.  Now if we could just get him to become a good 3rd base, we are set for the next half decade with him in our lineup.

[DJL44]

Jhoan Duran gets my vote for Twins ROY

[Blyleven2011]

Miranda  is good and maybe the best rookie the younger fans have seen  ,but us older fans have seen alot of rookies have better season's  ...

TONY O tops my list ...

Here are the Roy awards to others ...

Rod carew ...

John castino who shared it with griffin  ... 

Chuck knoblauch ...

Marty Cordova  ...

1995 was our last Roy award , Cordova 

[gman]

Miranda has batted 4th regularly recently. Considering the Twins lineup he has done pretty well with very little support. A tough call for anyone let alone a rookie. The pitchers can just pitch around him and let someone else beat them. I expect he will get less to hit this last month of the season.

[Mike Sixel]

3 hours ago, USAFChief said:

Yeah, also Chuck Knoblauch, Rod Carew, Kent Hrbek, Francisco Liriano, Marty Cordova, just off the top of my head.

Also, "one of the best seasons in prospect history?"

 A "ridiculous .838 OPS?"

This article might have had a point, but I can't get past the hyperbole. 

 

Proving he's certainly not underrated.....

[Major League Ready]

The league definitely made some adjustments after two very productive months in June and July.  The past 2-3 weeks he has not gotten much to hit and he had been chasing or swinging at very tough pitches on the first pitch and getting behind.  Now we will see if he can adjust.  I thought his approach was better last night.  It may have been that he just got too amped and two anxious after killing it for a couple months.  He will be a beast if he makes them pitch to him.

 

The future was looking very bright the couple of weeks we had Miranda / Lewis and Kirilloff in the INF.  Sure hope that comes together next year.

[IndianaTwin]

3 hours ago, USAFChief said:

Yeah, also Chuck Knoblauch, Rod Carew, Kent Hrbek, Francisco Liriano, Marty Cordova, just off the top of my head.

Also, "one of the best seasons in prospect history?"

 A "ridiculous .838 OPS?"

This article might have had a point, but I can't get past the hyperbole. 

 

“One of the best…” leaves things open for interpretation. Technically, Eddie Bane was “one of the best,” if we’re talking about, say, the 500 best. ?

[Trov]

I would not say he is underrated.  He is hitting overall well, but so are many of the other rookies on the list that are offensive, and all of them play better defense.  I bet if Twins were offered most of the other offensive guys on that list, except for maybe Kwan and Donovan, straight up for Miranda they make that move.  Not taking anything away from him, and I like him, but he is mostly just bat.  

[KirbyDome89]

4 hours ago, USAFChief said:

This article might have had a point, but I can't get past the hyperbole. 

[Seth Stohs]

10 hours ago, DJL44 said:

He's been playing all over the place and not starting consistently which will lead him to being underrated. He's also been brutal defensively, making a lot of rookie mistakes.

Not starting consistently? Geez, he's hitting 3rd or 4th pretty much every game and has been for months. 

He made some rookie mistakes defensively early on, but since he's been hitting, he's been playing much, much better defensively. He's probably better at 3B than 1B, but he's fine at 1B too. 

[h2oface]

Tony O. Tops. Others stated in comments already as well. Miranda is having a rookie season we needed, but some of us have witnessed the Twins since the 60s, and Miranda’s rookie  season isn’t even close to the best ever. 

[wabene]

7 hours ago, Seth Stohs said:

Not starting consistently? Geez, he's hitting 3rd or 4th pretty much every game and has been for months. 

He made some rookie mistakes defensively early on, but since he's been hitting, he's been playing much, much better defensively. He's probably better at 3B than 1B, but he's fine at 1B too. 

I agree. He primarily played 3rd in the minors so he just needs more time at 1st and I'm guessing he'll improve there as well. 

[Trov]

I would add that I am very impressed with his approach at the plate.  He seems to have a plan up there and look for specific pitches that he is expecting.  Sometimes it leads to him looking foolish, like last night against Wacha where he was up 3-1 on count and took to called strikes because he guessed wrong, but he is clearly having thoughts in his head of what he is expecting.  An at-bat later on he pulled a ball deep and foul, then next pitch he smoked a liner the other way, for an out, but it showed he was expecting that pitch and was ready for it.  

I fully expect he will have good seasons as a hitter, now I just hope he can work on his glove work, where ever he settles in. 

[terrydactyls]

14 hours ago, IndianaTwin said:

“One of the best…” leaves things open for interpretation. Technically, Eddie Bane was “one of the best,” if we’re talking about, say, the 500 best. ?

I'm not sure that Bane would make the top 500.

[DJL44]

10 hours ago, Seth Stohs said:

Not starting consistently?

Not in the same spot. He's playing a utility role, he's not the starting 3B or the starting 1B. That will make him underrated.

[Karbo]

The guy can flat out hit. Love his 2 strike approach. I don't think he really hurts us defensively, and he will improve there also. But my vote still goes to Tony O for best rookie!

[Scott51104]

2 hours ago, DJL44 said:

Not in the same spot. He's playing a utility role, he's not the starting 3B or the starting 1B. That will make him underrated.

By that criteria, Killebrew also was underrated (1st base vs LHP with Rollins at 3rd; 3rd base vs RHP with Mincher at 1st)

[DJL44]

2 hours ago, Scott51104 said:

By that criteria, Killebrew also was underrated (1st base vs LHP with Rollins at 3rd; 3rd base vs RHP with Mincher at 1st)

I think Killebrew was underrated. At the time he was also underrated because he didn't hit .300.

[jkcarew]

He’s limited defensively (to be kind), he’s limited on the bases, he’s posted  a 320 OBP with a 17/73 BB/K ratio. And in doing so, he has shown signs that he could develop into a very dangerous hitter.

But in one short article, he just went from underrated to overrated.

Fwiw…Miranda’s OFFENSIVE season (if he finishes strong) will compare with the rookie campaigns of some Twins greats…and also the likes of Marty Cordova and DANNY SANTANA. Not really close to Hrbek’s 1982, and not in the same universe as Oliva’s 1964.

 

[Major League Ready]

I think the answer is we don't know.  The league has adapted, and we are entering the phase where we find out if he can adjust.  I do think he is being judged rather harshly defensively.  His future defensive position is at 3B and after trading Steer and CES we need him to be a 3B.  They said about a week ago on the TV broadcast he has only made 1 error at 3B and he has looked better at 3B than 1B to me.  His limited experience at 1B shows in the decisions he makes although I suspect that will come along fairly quickly as he learns from those mistakes.  

I would be very happy to have an 850 OPS 3B that is average defensively.  Plus, I will take the extra $20M and invest that money in pitching.

[Major League Ready]

19 hours ago, jkcarew said:

He’s limited defensively (to be kind), he’s limited on the bases, he’s posted  a 320 OBP with a 17/73 BB/K ratio. And in doing so, he has shown signs that he could develop into a very dangerous hitter.

But in one short article, he just went from underrated to overrated.

Fwiw…Miranda’s OFFENSIVE season (if he finishes strong) will compare with the rookie campaigns of some Twins greats…and also the likes of Marty Cordova and DANNY SANTANA. Not really close to Hrbek’s 1982, and not in the same universe as Oliva’s 1964.

 

The difference between Hrbek and miranda is that Hrbek got his feet wet the year before and he was mediocre in that initial stint with the Twins.  he came out of the gate in 82 really hot and had an OPS of 986 for the first two months.  The next two months Hrbek's OPS was was 809.  Miranda started slow and the next two months his OPS was 843.  So, if we are fair and consider Hrbek got his first look the year before the start of the two careers look quite similar.

[jkcarew]

10 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

The difference between Hrbek and miranda is that Hrbek got his feet wet the year before and he was mediocre in that initial stint with the Twins.  he came out of the gate in 82 really hot and had an OPS of 986 for the first two months.  The next two months Hrbek's OPS was was 809.  Miranda started slow and the next two months his OPS was 843.  So, if we are fair and consider Hrbek got his first look the year before the start of the two careers look quite similar.

Not buying it. We’re talking rookies. Hrbek was a rookie in 1982. He was also 22 years old in his rookie year.. Miranda is 24. Again, not really that close. Doesn’t mean Miranda won’t be as good or better than Hrbek some day. Could happen. But it does mean Hrbek’s rookie year was very very impressive not withstanding the 73 PA he got in ‘81 at age 21.