Safe or Sorry: The Twins Have Two Pitchers to Question

[Game7-91]

6 hours ago, Nine of twelve said:

Ryan Pressley's results badly trailed almost all of his metrics during the season that he was traded to Houston. Next thing you know, he's a reliable late-inning guy--often a closer--for a team in the World Series. Not saying Pagan will turn out to be like that but this helps me to understand why the team is willing to keep him on the roster.

Our analytics and coaching staff just needs to find better Stick 'Em products.

[IndianaTwin]

3 hours ago, IndianaTwin said:

Fair enough -- take out that one and Ryan is at 3.44 during this period.

But if you also let Bundy take out a clunker, he falls to 3.07. 

(But to clarify -- my point isn't so much about Ryan struggling, but about that Bundy has actually been better than he's given credit for.)

 

3 hours ago, rv78 said:

I did not find the clunker you are referring to from Bundy in the last 2 months. Also, you have to take into consideration which Team they are facing? Ryan's clunker was against a playoff caliber team. Has he pitched more games against those kind of teams verses Bundy? Or has Bundy gotten the luxury of facing bad teams more often like KC and Det, more so than Ryan? Lots of variables to consider.

 

3 hours ago, RJA said:

Your post is interesting.  Thank you. I would tend to look at season long statistics, or those that are most current--last 3-4 weeks--as every player/pitcher has up and down periods with respect to their performance.  The thing every manager would like to avoid is starting a pitcher who is struggling currently, hence the most recent data is relevant.  This in no way detracts from your premise about Bundy--I have been a critic and I agree with you that he has done better than he is given credit for.   

 

1 hour ago, wabene said:

This is interesting and I agree Bundy has outstripped my expectations. However this time period does cherry pick Ryan's worst stretch after COVID. 

Again, as noted, my post was more about recognition for Bundy than bashing on Ryan. (And I hope I didn't jinx Bundy's performance tonight! ?)

For Bundy's "clunker," I threw out his worst game, a five-run, four-inning performance against Milwaukee.

Yes, small sample size. I chose June 10-ish as the break point, since that's the time each came off the IL. If you want more recent action, the last four starts actually favor Bundy by a greater margin -- 5 runs in 19.1 innings vs. 9 runs in 22.1 innings.  

As to opponents, common opponents are Cleveland, Colorado, White Sox, Milwaukee, Texas and San Diego. Ryan got the Dodgers and Bundy got Houston as their toughest opponents. Ryan also got Seattle, Baltimore, Detroit (2x), Kansas City and San Francisco. Bundy got Arizona, two more against Texas, two more against the White Sox, Toronto and the Angels. I don't see that as appreciably different. In eyeballing, I also see Bundy getting four games against their primary opponents (White Sox/Cleveland) vs. twice for Ryan and Ryan getting three against KC/Det vs. none for Bundy, so one could argue that Bundy certainly got the more key opponents.

Again -- I'm glad to have Ryan on the team, including going forward, but let's quit bashing Bundy. 

(And to anticipate the "but he doesn't throw many innings" comments, since they each came off the IL in early June, Ryan has thrown 70 innings in 13 starts (5.38 innings/start), Bundy 62.2 in 12 (5.22) and Gray 67 in 13 (5.15), which is hardly an appreciable difference.)

[DocBauer]

To be honest, Bundy has surprised me. He's not great. But he's been durable and solid, as well as pretty consistent. He's got a real bulldog mentality, doesn't walk many, and keeps the Twins in most every game for 5 innings. He's clearly a smart pitcher. I keep thinking how many years in the past we'd of loved to have him as our #5? I think his "value" to this team is underappreciated a bit due to struggles from the pen as well as frustrating injuries to other arms and Archer still sitting there as a 4 inning arm.

I wouldn't be upset if he was brought back, but I think $11M would be high when I think the Twins can and should aim higher. Of course, there are some financial questions we just don't know about at this point, meaning Correa, but that's a different discussion for a different day.

Pagan, to me, is simple. With a 3yr history of poor results that have continued to trend in 2022, and responsible for double digit losses that have almost single handedly kept the Twins from being in 1st place in the ALC, he should have been gone already. You CAN'T run a state of the art analytics team and NOT be able to look beyond beyond velocity and K's to see poor results that AREN'T NEW in his career. You're just not going to strike gold with a 31yo arm that will be 32 in May next year and expect different results! Even as fans and amateur GM's we can see him pitch OK one day, and get nailed the next. 

For giggles, Megill probably doesn't have a big future for the Twins. His stuff is as good, and probably better, than Pagan. At 28yo, 29 in December, at least he offers a CHANCE to be viable for a couple of years as late bloomer with a change of scenery. Maybe. But almost 4yrs of Pagan, he is what he is. 

I don't know if the FO is being stubborn on Pagan, or if injuries and some poor performances from younger arms are "forcing" them to keep him as a middle man for now. But if it was me, he would have been gone after the deadline and I'd be trying almost any arm at St Paul to provide middle relief.

[Twodogs]

Bundy has been ok, but because he can't get passed 5 innings ever he causes the Twins to have to occasionally use a guy like Pagan, so Bundy does ok, but because he can't go further the Twins lose some of his starts and other pitchers starts that can't go more than 5 innings because they have to use guys like Pagan.  They can't use Duran and Jax every night.  

[jimbo92107]

The problem with Pagan is pretty simple. Every batter walks up to the plate knowing that the guy has a high walk rate for disciplined hitters, and he throws one or two pitches right down the middle during just about every at bat. 

[Otaknam]

The Twins shouldn’t  and won’t pay Bundy an $11 million option to give them 4-5 innings as a number 5. Of course every starter is a number five to Rocco and thus they, can’t be trusted to pitch to the lineup a third time. No highly regarded free agent pitcher would ever sign here if the manager has no trust in them to pitch past the sixth inning or a COMPLETE GAME, whatever that is. 

[Nashvilletwin]

All great comments on this thread.

Bottom line: Bundy has been at least satisfactory in his role and at his cost. He’s done his job. Well done. However, as a 4-5 inning guy, he’s not worth his option cost next year. Ideally, we’d find a better option at #5 offering similar results but with greater length and lower cost. We shall see how the other options develop.  If somehow he ended up as our #5 at $5-6MM, and repeated his performance this year, well, things could be a lot worse. In fact, that would be pretty darn good.

Pagan is gone. Period. 

[puckstopper1]

Excellent article and discussion topic, but this line is VERY misleading... "On the flip side, there’s Emilio Pagan. Acquired from the San Diego Padres for Taylor Rogers just before Opening Day, "

This trade was more than Pagan for Rogers.

That said, the Twins were hoping that Pagan would replace some of what Rogers provided, and her certainly did not do that...

[Major League Ready]

Bundy is a good #5 but we have enough depth.  Gray / Mahle / Ryan / Winder / Ober / Maeda and maybe Dobnak with Varland getting close plus Smeltzer in reserve and Paddack a couple month into next season.    Past years were different.  They had very little depth of reasonable quality.  If they add someone it needs to be a front of the rotation arm or why bother.

It also would not be a big surprise to see Duran get a shot in the rotation because he has the most potential of anyone on the roster to be a dominant #1.

[Mike Sixel]

1 hour ago, Major League Ready said:

Bundy is a good #5 but we have enough depth.  Gray / Mahle / Ryan / Winder / Ober / Maeda and maybe Dobnak with Varland getting close plus Smeltzer in reserve and Paddack a couple month into next season.    Past years were different.  They had very little depth of reasonable quality.  If they add someone it needs to be a front of the rotation arm or why bother.

It also would not be a big surprise to see Duran get a shot in the rotation because he has the most potential of anyone on the roster to be a dominant #1.

And SWR. They don't need a veteran forth or fifth starter next year. That said, it depends on health. They might sign a placeholder.

They do need Pagan off this roster. Sigh. 

[terrydactyls]

On 8/29/2022 at 3:25 PM, PDX Twin said:

I have a naïve hypothesis about Pagan, so let me share it and then you all can shoot it down.

When I was teaching budding economists, I always stressed the need to look beyond any single summary statistic about the economy to try to interpret what was consistent with the multi-dimensional data available. 

But it is so much easier to cherry pick a single statistic to "prove" whatever point of view that you prefer.  (Insert sarcasm emoji here ?.)