Rocco Baldelli's future

[Thiéres Rabelo]

If this is a repeated topic, I apologize. But I'd like to know the fans' opinions on a pretty straightforward question: should Rocco Baldelli remain at the helm of the Twins after this season? If so, why? If not, why not? Your reasonings are what I'm interested in the most here.

[chpettit19]

If there's a Francona level manager that they could get here instead I'd move on from Rocco in a heartbeat. I don't consider Maddon to be on that level any longer, and don't think there are any of those guys available right now.

If the FO gets the feeling that Rocco has maxed out what he can do with the roster they should move on. Have no idea what their feelings about that are, but if they feel that now they should've fired him mid-season to try to salvage 2022 and not wait until the offseason.

I'll be ok with whatever they decide to do with Rocco, but I'd like to see someone who doesn't seem to be so inline with the FO in the clubhouse/dugout. I have no insider info, but it feels like they all seem to view things darn near the exact same way and I think that hinders creativity and the ability to adjust on the fly. If they're in as much of lockstep as it feels I'd like them to move on to someone who will push back more, but don't expect them to.

Overall I think Rocco is just another manager. Nothing great, nothing awful. And I think that's pretty much 95% of managers so I don't see it as that huge of a thing if they keep him or not as the next guy likely won't do anything to significantly raise the level of performance on his own. I just don't think managers have that type of influence on Ws and Ls.

[gunnarthor]

My guess is that if the Twins with a winning record, he'll stay. If they finish below .500, he'll be fired.

I don't think he's a good manager and should go but it's really hard to determine how much of this is Rocco's fault and how much are marching orders from the FO. He's made a number of bone headed mistakes the last few years - from the extra mound visit the other day to not having the right arms ready in the pen. 

It's also hard to say that he's the problem. The biggest issue - to me - is the pitching staff and I think that's more on the FO. Not a lot of managers are going to look great with this staff.

[Vanimal46]

Rocco likely remains with the team for the 2023 season. I just don’t think there’s any urgency to make a change from ownership. It doesn’t look like he’s going to be the type of manager to set players up in situations where they over perform. 

Falvey and Levine’s seat should be hotter than Baldelli. 

[TwinsDr2021]

I have been hard on Rocco since the very beginning, but as time has passed I have slide more of the blame on the FO. I agree with @chpettit19Rocco is inline with this FO so is that on him or them?

I do believe others managers might have been able to get more out of this starting staff than Rocco, but every time he seems to let the lease out it gets pulled back in, is that the FO over his shoulder or not?

[farmerguychris]

I don't believe his job is any jeopardy, and I feel that is fair.  He can only work with the roster he is given by the F.O.  It is that same FO that desires him to lead by analytics and science.  I think the only way he will be let go is if the FO is feeling as if their jobs are in jeopardy, and then use him as a scapegoat to save their own jobs for a few more years.

I like Rocco and simply hope the FO gives him some pitching to work with next year and that the trainers can keep us a bit more healthy.

[PatPfund]

No way he gets fired after this year.

However, unless things get turned around and there is a post-season, and even some success in that post-season, then this is another underwhelming year considering the additions at the season's start, and again at the trade deadline. Sure there have been injuries, but frankly those are often mis-managed (ex: Buxton should have gone on IL right after hurting his knee, instead they 'managed' it to keep him in there, and that didn't work out; Kepler breaks his toe, is kept active, then is finally put on IL, then is brought back with no rehab and promptly goes 1-29).

The team is questionable at defense, terrible at base-running, and plays as a team less than the sum of its parts. The better starting pitchers are getting pretty open about frustration at the "Tampa" style short leash (which isn't going to help draw FAs). These are things the manager directly affects.

Bottom line is Rocco isn't getting the max out of this team. So, no, he won't be fired after this year, but if they don't make the playoffs, he's definitely on the hot seat next year.

[LA VIkes Fan]

I think you evaluate a manager based on where the team performs versus it's talent level. I thought he got max value out of the roster in 2019 and 2020, but got less than full value last year. This year? The tough call with Rocco this year is quantifying the extent to which injuries have hurt the roster, particularly the batting order. I think if healthy this team had 87-90+ win potential, as is more like 81-85. So I think we're kind of playing to our level. Full disclosure - I predicted 78-84 in the preseason poll here but I think that was before we got Correa and I definitely missed out on the  dramatic improvements of Arraez, Miranda and Gordon. 

Fine, ok, not bad. That's my overall impression of Rocco. He's fine - not great, not significantly above average, not bad, not significantly below average, fine. The classic 3 to 3.5 on a scale of 1-5. That could rise if the team goes 25-15 in the last 40 (we're 0-1 so far), drops if we go 15-25. Most likely, we go 21-19 or so and wind up with 82-85 wins. In that case, I think he'll get one more year. And I agree chpetit19 - I'm ok with Rocco staying if there isn't an available Terry Francona type out there with next year being his make or break year. I just don't think baseball managers influence more than a spread of 5-8 wins a year unless they're really good or really bad. I think in baseball about 135 games play out strictly based on talent level and the other 25 or so are management with a 5-8 win spread out there between the best manager and the worst. This is baseball, not football. What I'm really looking for is growth at the FO level to increase creativity and less standardized thinking game after game. I've actually felt like Rocco is trying harder these last few games to lose the script and react to the situation so, as the say, there is no cure but there is hope through research. 

[tony&rodney]

Rocco looked stressed last night. Maybe he is thinking that this managing gig isn't too much fun after all. The Twins are usually slow to make changes; I expect him back for that reason.

[LA VIkes Fan]

19 minutes ago, PatPfund said:

No way he gets fired after this year.

However, unless things get turned around and there is a post-season, and even some success in that post-season, then this is another underwhelming year considering the additions at the season's start, and again at the trade deadline. Sure there have been injuries, but frankly those are often mis-managed (ex: Buxton should have gone on IL right after hurting his knee, instead they 'managed' it to keep him in there, and that didn't work out; Kepler breaks his toe, is kept active, then is finally put on IL, then is brought back with no rehab and promptly goes 1-29).

The team is questionable at defense, terrible at base-running, and plays as a team less than the sum of its parts. The better starting pitchers are getting pretty open about frustration at the "Tampa" style short leash (which isn't going to help draw FAs). These are things the manager directly affects.

Bottom line is Rocco isn't getting the max out of this team. So, no, he won't be fired after this year, but if they don't make the playoffs, he's definitely on the hot seat next year.

I agree with one big caveat - I think this team has played to the sum of its parts. My question about Baldelli is that I don't think he has gotten more - here the sum of the whole is NOT more than the sum of its parts. I don't usually agree with Jim Souhan but he is right about this lineup. The top 4/5 of Arraez, Polanco, Miranda, Correa and Buxton are above average but they are not great. They are pretty good. More importantly, there is no one superstar hitter among them who can carry a team for a month. All 5 of those guys would be great complimentary hitters around a true middle of the order stud but we don't have that guy. The back half of the lineup is a disaster. Nick Gordon is a nice player hitting a little bit above average and he could start on a contending team hitting in the 7 or 8 hole. Maybe he'll be more next year, maybe less. Urshela is a classic starter on a 2nd division team, utility player/8 or 9 hitter on a contending team. Kepler is fourth outfielder you keep because of his defense. He can't hit well enough to start on a contending team unless he plays CF, not a corner OF, hitting 8 or 9. Celestino is a AAA centerfielder who you hope will make a meaningful contribution one or two years from now. Sanchez is a backup catcher, Leon is a 3rd catcher/AAA depth. Cave and Beckham are at best high minors depth who really shouldn't be on any MLB roster. Garlick is a platoon player who shouldn't get more than 200 ABs a season. 

The pitching staff is similar to the top 4 or 5 hitters, solid/good but not great. The rotation is fine and could be really good if it had a number 1 starter. But we don't. The bullpen is actually pretty solid 5 to 6 pitchers deep after the trades, but the quality really falls off at the bottom. Add a #1 starter and the pitching might be good enough for a contending team with a good lineup but it's not good enough to carry the weak lineup we have.

Yes, injuries have hurt, particularly the back half of the lineup and the bullpen. Yes, we will have more starters and hitters back next year. . Yes there is optimism for next year because of that. All good. This year? We've been playing in June, July and August at only a little below the level of the talent we have; we should really be a slightly above .500 team not a 7 or 8 games under .500 team, but that's really where the talent is on this team IMHO. 

[UpstateNewYorker]

58 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

If there's a Francona level manager that they could get here instead I'd move on from Rocco in a heartbeat. I don't consider Maddon to be on that level any longer, and don't think there are any of those guys available right now.

If the FO gets the feeling that Rocco has maxed out what he can do with the roster they should move on. Have no idea what their feelings about that are, but if they feel that now they should've fired him mid-season to try to salvage 2022 and not wait until the offseason.

I'll be ok with whatever they decide to do with Rocco, but I'd like to see someone who doesn't seem to be so inline with the FO in the clubhouse/dugout. I have no insider info, but it feels like they all seem to view things darn near the exact same way and I think that hinders creativity and the ability to adjust on the fly. If they're in as much of lockstep as it feels I'd like them to move on to someone who will push back more, but don't expect them to.

Overall I think Rocco is just another manager. Nothing great, nothing awful. And I think that's pretty much 95% of managers so I don't see it as that huge of a thing if they keep him or not as the next guy likely won't do anything to significantly raise the level of performance on his own. I just don't think managers have that type of influence on Ws and Ls.

Good post!  I would just add that managing a pitching staff is perhaps the most important skill a manager needs these days. I don't think Rocco has excelled at this, even given that the bullpen was terrible early on. 

[Danchat]

For me, it's more about whether the front office should stick around or not... and if we clean house, Rocco goes too. Would the Falvine FO really stand to benefit that much from a third shot at a different manager? I think it would be nice to hire a veteran manager next time around, but I don't see the point if the FO is going to be on a very hot seat in 2023 - it'd be like slapping a bandage on a gaping wound. 

[LA VIkes Fan]

1 minute ago, UpstateNewYorker said:

Good post!  I would just add that managing a pitching staff is perhaps the most important skill a manager needs these days. I don't think Rocco has excelled at this, even given that the bullpen was terrible early on. 

Totally agree. Wes Johnson was supposedly really managing the pitching staff in games before he bolted. He wasn't very good at that part of his job and Rocco has been no better. Maki seems to be in a little bit over his head now. I think that getting a better head pitching coach for next year could really help. By the way, is James Rowson available to come back and be the hitting coach? 

[LastOnePicked]

Last season was a first-to-worst season. This season has included an absolutely epic crash (60%+ playoff odds two weeks ago to 14% today). I cannot possibly see how Rocco keeps his job. What has he ever really won here? What great leeway has he earned?

His is a decent, conscientious man. His players chronically underperform. He seems to pull all of the wrong lineup and bullpen moves. I cannot think of a single reason why he should remain with the club. I think it's very possible he gets fired in September.

Sure, we can throw the FO in this too, but they found a way to creatively sign Correa. They made necessary, big moves at the deadline. Rocco has gotten almost nothing out of what he's been given. I can't speak for others, but I've seen enough. He is not the person I want to see managing this team.

[Mark G]

Looking at the picture from a macro view instead of a micro view, going back to '86 how many managers has the team had?  Kelly, Gardy, Molitor, and Rocco.......did I forget anyone?  And we have had how many GM's in that time?  Then think about how many owners have we had?  Carl, and Jim.  They don't view the team as a toy, like a lot of owners do.  It is a business, and in business results aren't always measured in wins and losses.  It is measured by continuity, and the increase in the value of the business.  I just do not see JP firing anyone anytime soon, unless there is a sharp downturn in his business.  I know everyone lost a bunch of money in '20 and even in '21, but the attendance is up this year and the business continues to increase in value.  JP values loyalty far more than a winning record; see Howard Fox and Dave St. Peter.  He will give this FO just as much of a chance as the folks that preceded him.  It is entirely up to Falvine whether or not Rocco goes, and I just don't see that, at least not now; they think too much alike.  

That being said, I do think the team would be better off with someone else at the helm.  As others have said here, managing the pitching staff and the lineups is what separates managers, and Rocco doesn't do either well IMHO.  

[Mike Sixel]

Tough crowd. Won the division in 19 and 20. Were terrible last year, and competitive this year.

I'm not sure what people expect, especially given the team they inherited.

[roger]

Polonco is having a terrible year at the plate.  Kepler was good in ‘19, not so much since at least with the bat.  Wasn’t Sanchez a decent hitter with the Yankees?  Not here.  Correa is more than disappointing with the bat.  Don’t know what to say about how Buxton has been managed.  Jeffers was kept over Garver and Rortvedt because of his bat.  Well that didn’t work out.  
 

Who is hitting up to or beyond expectations?  Arraez and Miranda.  None of the big vets, none of the leaders.  I don’t know who is the blame, but the Manager has to carry some if not most of the blame.  So if it is my club, Rocco is gone along with most of his coaches…I would keep Watkins as I don’t think he has any involvement with hitting or pitching.

[Mike Sixel]

1 minute ago, roger said:

Polonco is having a terrible year at the plate.  Kepler was good in ‘19, not so much since at least with the bat.  Wasn’t Sanchez a decent hitter with the Yankees?  Not here.  Correa is more than disappointing with the bat.  Don’t know what to say about how Buxton has been managed.  Jeffers was kept over Garver and Rortvedt because of his bat.  Well that didn’t work out.  
 

Who is hitting up to or beyond expectations?  Arraez and Miranda.  None of the big vets, none of the leaders.  I don’t know who is the blame, but the Manager has to carry some if not most.  So if it is my club, Rocco is gone along with most of his coaches…I would keep Watkins as I don’t think he has any involvement with hitting or pitching.

Jeffers is better than Rortverdt, and it isn't close. Garver, like Jeffers, is hurt and out for the year. Sanchez was brutal in NY last year. 

Why would it be the manager to blame, and not the FO? Kepler isn't healthy, but that's on Rocco? You think Rocco has done what to make CC worse this year? Like, what did Rocco do/say to make CC not as good as you expected, do you think?

Also, the progress from 2018 doesn't matter? Again, tough crowd.

[Mortimerkenny21]

I don't think he will be canned this year or next year. I'm pretty much on the same page as most folks here. He's not great, he's not bad. I now baseball is super statistics driven now, but I wish he would go with what we feel is playing with your gut & heart instead of looking at the numbers. Who knows maybe that's not gonna help any either, But as you watch these games some decisions feel like real head scratchers. What might be in order though is new pitching and hitting coaches. And some of out "star" offense players to actually clutch hit once and awhile. Maybe we won't end up with the all time record of RISP left on base.

[Dman]

I don't know the players were singing his praises at the start of the year with the great club house vibe and how Rocco communicates what his plan is for each player.   He is a players manager, has his players backs and nothing but high praise when they perform well.  I think he is good for the club house and keeping guys loose.  Whether that leads to winning or not is another story.

Like others above I think he is completely inline with how the FO views the roster and what the percentage play is.  Like a lot of teams they believe in the numbers and are going to play it by the spreadsheet for the most part.  If they got another manager it would be the same things happening with a different face and that's about it.  

I think Rocco is a good face for the players and the organization. I don't see them blaming Rocco for all the player performance issues.  I agree with others that it comes down to what the FO provides to the team. They gave him a crappy pen and a rotation that is average at best.  I think they got what they gave this year with or without Rocco.

[gunnarthor]

5 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

 

Also, the progress from 2018 doesn't matter? Again, tough crowd.

2017 team made the playoffs, the 2018 team finished second in a really weak division and won 78 games. They had a heck of a young nucleus. It wasn't like Rocco walked onto a sinking ship. I'm not sure how much praise Rocco deserves for 19-20 when you see that that core made the playoffs three out of four years but hasn't made it back since.

[LastOnePicked]

18 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Won the division in 19 and 20.

Yup, won the weakest division in baseball in '19 and benefited from a COVID-year White Sox collapse. How'd those division titles turn out in the postseason?

He's clearly a replacement-level manager at best, so why worry so much about replacing him?

[USAFChief]

31 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Tough crowd. Won the division in 19 and 20. Were terrible last year, and competitive this year.

I'm not sure what people expect, especially given the team they inherited.

2019, sure.

2020...eh, 60 game seasons don't get full credit from me. We were in 1st after 60 games this year, too.

No postseason Ws.

Disaster last year, pretty disappointing implosion in progress this year. 

Plenty to at least question about pitching management, style of play, poor fundamentals, baserunning. 

I don't think Rocco's job is currently in danger, and I'm mostly ok with that, but those calling for his head have as much ammo as those defending. 

And if this gets ugly over the next 40 games, then i think all bets are off and he very well might be gone.

[Irishman]

IMO FO, scouting department and coaching staffs need to be overhauled after this season.   Hiring James Rowson as manager and hitting coach.   

[Squirrel]

7 minutes ago, LastOnePicked said:

Yup, won the weakest division in baseball in '19 and benefited from a COVID-year White Sox collapse. How'd those division titles turn out in the postseason?

He's clearly a replacement-level manager at best, so why worry so much about replacing him?

Replace him with whom? The FO will look for the same type of manager. I’m one of those who doesn’t think the manager affects that many wins and losses. Sure, some, but not as many as people on TD think. I’m also one of those who thinks managers are easy scapegoats. I’m also one of those who thinks 90% (or maybe more) of the responsibility for wins and losses are on those who construct the roster (FO) and those who execute the play on the field (the players). I don’t know if or should Rocco will be the manager next year but whatever decision is made I will not be surprised. That said, I’m pretty sure whoever they get, it will be someone in the same vein as Rocco and many will be disappointed quickly

[roger]

32 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Jeffers is better than Rortverdt, and it isn't close. Garver, like Jeffers, is hurt and out for the year. Sanchez was brutal in NY last year. 

Why would it be the manager to blame, and not the FO? Kepler isn't healthy, but that's on Rocco? You think Rocco has done what to make CC worse this year? Like, what did Rocco do/say to make CC not as good as you expected, do you think?

Also, the progress from 2018 doesn't matter? Again, tough crowd.

I guess we will disagree on this one, Mike.  And part of what I was saying is that the coaches go with him.  I don’t know what goes on in the clubhouse, spring training, meetings, etc.  But for me, the team is failing.  Yes, injuries are part of the reason, but the guys who aren’t hurt are also struggling. So yes, for me it starts with the top guy.  And I would also take a hard look at the front office, but that wasn’t the question for this thread.

[KirbyDome89]

2 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

If there's a Francona level manager that they could get here instead I'd move on from Rocco in a heartbeat. I don't consider Maddon to be on that level any longer, and don't think there are any of those guys available right now.

If the FO gets the feeling that Rocco has maxed out what he can do with the roster they should move on. Have no idea what their feelings about that are, but if they feel that now they should've fired him mid-season to try to salvage 2022 and not wait until the offseason.

I'll be ok with whatever they decide to do with Rocco, but I'd like to see someone who doesn't seem to be so inline with the FO in the clubhouse/dugout. I have no insider info, but it feels like they all seem to view things darn near the exact same way and I think that hinders creativity and the ability to adjust on the fly. If they're in as much of lockstep as it feels I'd like them to move on to someone who will push back more, but don't expect them to.

Overall I think Rocco is just another manager. Nothing great, nothing awful. And I think that's pretty much 95% of managers so I don't see it as that huge of a thing if they keep him or not as the next guy likely won't do anything to significantly raise the level of performance on his own. I just don't think managers have that type of influence on Ws and Ls.

Percent chance they're willing to hire somebody who thinks outside their box? I'd put it at near zero based on the unwavering application of their philosophy across then entire roster + its usage. 

[KirbyDome89]

2 hours ago, Vanimal46 said:

Rocco likely remains with the team for the 2023 season. I just don’t think there’s any urgency to make a change from ownership. It doesn’t look like he’s going to be the type of manager to set players up in situations where they over perform. 

Falvey and Levine’s seat should be hotter than Baldelli. 

This. Firing Baldelli for the way this season has played out is a PR stunt. 

[chpettit19]

17 minutes ago, KirbyDome89 said:

Percent chance they're willing to hire somebody who thinks outside their box? I'd put it at near zero based on the unwavering application of their philosophy across then entire roster + its usage. 

I tend to agree. It's part of why firing Rocco doesn't give me great hope for improvement and then I just don't see any reason to fire him if you're just hiring Rocco 2.0.

[Cap'n Piranha]

1 hour ago, Mike Sixel said:

Tough crowd. Won the division in 19 and 20. Were terrible last year, and competitive this year.

I'm not sure what people expect, especially given the team they inherited.

Competitive is a term replete with shades of gray.  The Twins are competitive in a terrible division that features 2 of the 3 worst teams in the AL (2 of the worst 6 in all of MLB).  The team leading the division would be in third or worse in every division save the NL Central, where they would be exactly 2 games out of third.  I don't think it's unreasonable a fans to want more than a puncher's chance at being a punching bag in the playoffs.

This is year 6 of the Falvine regime, and the arrow is pointing flat, if not down.  I agree with you that they did not inherit much, but why have they been so unable to even come close to replicating the high-water mark of the 2019/2020 seasons?  If you want to point to injuries, then I'd ask why this organization struggles so much with injuries given their supposed focus on overall health and injury prevention?  Are they just the most snake-bitten franchise ever?

I'm not advocating for a house cleaning by any stretch, but unless something changes in the next 6 weeks, 2023 needs to be a make-or-break season for the entire baseball ops department, up to and including Falvey.