Astros 6, Twins 3: Like a Broken Record

[Cap'n Piranha]

  On 8/26/2022 at 1:32 PM, Otto von Ballpark said:

Sometimes your top late inning arms need to pitch 2 innings, and sometimes they need to pitch back to back games.

Last night, as the offense failed for 3 innings to close the gap any more than 2 runs, Baldelli judged that it was better to keep them all available for a potential back-to-back rather than stretch any of them to 2 innings in this particular game. Seems eminently defensible.

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They didn't know when they removed Duran or Jax that the offense would fail to close the gap for 3 innings.  It should have been pretty foreseeable that the offense not closing the gap was a real possibility, given that the Twins were slated to send hitters 4-6 to the plate in the 6th.  Seeing as how it was also guaranteed that the Astros 1-5 hitters would appear at least once more, and in all probability twice more after the 5th inning, you could easily save Duran/Jax/Lopez for the Astros' best hitters.

The decision was non-sensical when it was made, it (predictably) did not work, and it increased the chances that the Twins losing streak will grow to 7/8 games, since the 3 best bullpen arms will be either unavailable or at an increased likelihood of performing poorly until at least Sunday.

[Cap'n Piranha]

  On 8/26/2022 at 11:15 AM, Richie the Rally Goat said:

Lopez and Duran haven’t pitched in a week. Sometimes you gotta give guys some work regardless of the scenario

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Would Lopez and Duran have appeared last night if the Twins were losing 9-1 in the fifth inning?  If Rocco was deadset on using them, why not use one as an opener then instead?

[Battle ur tail off]

First thing. I'm done with Archer. Let Sanchez, or Smeltzer or Varland have his starts or combine 2 of them to get it done.

I will actually back Rocco up this time with his pitching usage. Cleveland lost, White Sox lost, we were facing one of Houston's worst starters don't think for a minute he didn't know this and decided to take a chance to pickup a game.

Our "A" bullpen actually did pretty good against their lineup. I am fine with 1 run over 4 innings against that lineup. Our bats just didn't take advantage. 

See what happens this series. Either way, this team has to hit better no matter who is out there on the mound. They are really scuffling right now.(Thanks Gardy you old scuffler)

[Otto von Ballpark]

  On 8/26/2022 at 6:20 PM, Cap'n Piranha said:

The decision was non-sensical when it was made, it (predictably) did not work, and it increased the chances that the Twins losing streak will grow to 7/8 games, since the 3 best bullpen arms will be either unavailable or at an increased likelihood of performing poorly until at least Sunday.

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What was the alternative?

Thielbar is on a roll and just as important as Duran and Jax right now. Plus he's been our best reliever at stranding inherited runners, so he's better to save for Friday than have him start an inning on Thursday.

Fulmer was on zero rest himself, as was Smeltzer. There's only so many times you can keep trotting out Pagan and Megill for multiple innings each before you're sabotaging your efforts to coax positive contributions from them too. And trailing 5-3 is not the same as trailing 9-1 -- it's hardly Nick Gordon to the mound territory.

It didn't result in a win, and there are modest consequences to deal with tonight, but that's just an everyday reality in the sport -- you can't avoid it, you can only mitigate it. And we still have Thielbar plus other options to help mitigate tonight, if a no-rest guy needs help in a close contest.

[KirbyDome89]

  On 8/26/2022 at 6:22 PM, Cap'n Piranha said:

Would Lopez and Duran have appeared last night if the Twins were losing 9-1 in the fifth inning?  If Rocco was deadset on using them, why not use one as an opener then instead?

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If Rocco went with Pagan & Megill early, and a 2 run deficit turned into 5 run deficit, would you be defending the move to save Duran and Lopez, or would you pissed that a game they had a fighting chance in was put out of reach? Honestly. 

[h2oface]

  On 8/26/2022 at 11:15 AM, Richie the Rally Goat said:

Lopez and Duran haven’t pitched in a week. Sometimes you gotta give guys some work regardless of the scenario

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That was one of the excuses I chose not to add. It was pathetic that Duran wasn't used a couple times in that week, because he was needed, and Baldelli blew it and left him on the bench to save him "for tomorrow". His own fault. He saved them for so long he had to use Duran just to give him work as he needs to regularly pitch to stay sharp. 

Duran left on the bench after having had a team day off on Thursday and only throwing 18 pitches (in the 7th with a 4-0 lead on KC) the day before on Wednesday, and on Friday only throwing 10 pitches in the 2-1 win against Texas, and then not used in the 4-3 loss on Saturday that Thielbar and Jax combined to give up 2 with the score tied 2-2 in the 10th. Duran not used in the 2-1 loss to Texas on Monday after 2 day rest from his 10 pitch outing Friday (but Thielbar and Jax were successfully this time as they didn't give up any runs in the loss). I would say his was needed in both of those games......... and so it goes. Now he needed work after the not being used in Baldelli's mound visit debacle in game one with Houston on Tuesday and the game Wednesday when Fulmer let the lead go immediately from 2-1 to 5-1 in the 6th. So he needed work. Right.  

[Cap'n Piranha]

  On 8/26/2022 at 8:36 PM, Otto von Ballpark said:

What was the alternative?

Thielbar is on a roll and just as important as Duran and Jax right now. Plus he's been our best reliever at stranding inherited runners, so he's better to save for Friday than have him start an inning on Thursday.

Fulmer was on zero rest himself, as was Smeltzer. There's only so many times you can keep trotting out Pagan and Megill for multiple innings each before you're sabotaging your efforts to coax positive contributions from them too. And trailing 5-3 is not the same as trailing 9-1 -- it's hardly Nick Gordon to the mound territory.

It didn't result in a win, and there are modest consequences to deal with tonight, but that's just an everyday reality in the sport -- you can't avoid it, you can only mitigate it. And we still have Thielbar plus other options to help mitigate tonight, if a no-rest guy needs help in a close contest.

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The alternative was not to chase a win that had a very low probability of happening.  The Twins were already down 2 runs.  They had fewer at bats left than their opponent.  Those Twins at-bats were going to represent a higher percentage of lesser hitters than the Astros' at bats.  And perhaps most importantly, even if Duran, Jax, and Lopez all pitched a scoreless inning, the Twins would still need to get at least 6 outs from other relievers anyways (perhaps 9 or 12).

Had it been 5-3 going into the bottom of the 7th, I would have understood the move a bit more; I still wouldn't have done it, but at least it would have had the benefit of knowing that you didn't need to throw Megill/Pagan (since in this scenario they would have already pitched).  I would also understand the decision, and support it a bit more if the opponent was CWS or CLE, because division games count for two.  Same if they had today off.

The consequences tonight might very not be modest.  And they might not end tonight.  That is the point I'm making; Rocco took a game the Twins had a 17.8% chance of winning going into the bottom of the 5th, and threw his 3 best arms at it.  The consequence is that 1 loss might turn into 2 or 3--that is not modest, and it should have been entirely predictable to any person who understands math and probability.

I personally would include Rocco in the group of people who understand math and probability.  The fact that he eschewed those two last night can only be explained in my opinion by desperation.  Rocco felt the Twins had to have a win, and in chasing that, he not only lost, but put himself in a worse spot to get future wins.

[Cap'n Piranha]

  On 8/26/2022 at 9:21 PM, KirbyDome89 said:

If Rocco went with Pagan & Megill early, and a 2 run deficit turned into 5 run deficit, would you be defending the move to save Duran and Lopez, or would you pissed that a game they had a fighting chance in was put out of reach? Honestly. 

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See, that's the thing.  I never thought they had a fighting chance in last night's game once it reached the bottom of the 5th, for all the reasons I outlined above.  Just to get the win, the Twins would need to put up 3 runs in 4 innings (which is the most they had scored in any game for the past week; it's not like the offense is firing on all cylinders right now), while simultaneously completely shutting down a Houston offense that had scored 14 runs in the previous 20 innings for 5 innings.  Two of those innings were probably going to have to come from Megill and Pagan as well.  In reality, Rocco should have assumed the Twins  needed at least 4, and maybe 5 runs to actually win last night's game, and understood that his lineup is just not producing at that level, or anywhere near it, right now.  As a consequence, he should have pitched Megill in the 5th, Pagan in the 6th (since they were going to have to pitch anyways), and reassessed at that point.

So to answer your question, had Rocco let Megill and Pagan pitch 2 innings last night, and watched the 5-3 game turn into a 9-3 one, I would have been glad that we would be going into a weekend series against a much softer opponent with all our best bullpen options at full strength.  Anyone who prefers chasing an 18% chance to win instead of keeping the powder dry for a 56% chance to win is a prime example of why Las Vegas makes so much money.

[h2oface]

  On 8/26/2022 at 8:36 PM, Otto von Ballpark said:

What was the alternative?

Thielbar is on a roll and just as important as Duran and Jax right now. Plus he's been our best reliever at stranding inherited runners, so he's better to save for Friday than have him start an inning on Thursday.

Fulmer was on zero rest himself, as was Smeltzer. There's only so many times you can keep trotting out Pagan and Megill for multiple innings each before you're sabotaging your efforts to coax positive contributions from them too. And trailing 5-3 is not the same as trailing 9-1 -- it's hardly Nick Gordon to the mound territory.

It didn't result in a win, and there are modest consequences to deal with tonight, but that's just an everyday reality in the sport -- you can't avoid it, you can only mitigate it. And we still have Thielbar plus other options to help mitigate tonight, if a no-rest guy needs help in a close contest.

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Wasn't it Thielbar that came in Saturday in the 10th and gave up 2 immediate singles to give the Rangers a 3-2 lead - with Duran on the bench after having had a team day off on Thursday and only throwing 18 pitches (in the 7th with a 4-0 lead on KC) the day before on Wednesday, and on Friday only throwing 10 pitches in the 2-1 win against Texas - followed by Jax to give up a single and another run to the first batter he faced - and Duran still on the bench? That part of the roll? That was the start of the 6 game skid..... 

[KirbyDome89]

  On 8/26/2022 at 10:30 PM, Cap'n Piranha said:

See, that's the thing.  I never thought they had a fighting chance in last night's game once it reached the bottom of the 5th, for all the reasons I outlined above.  Just to get the win, the Twins would need to put up 3 runs in 4 innings (which is the most they had scored in any game for the past week; it's not like the offense is firing on all cylinders right now), while simultaneously completely shutting down a Houston offense that had scored 14 runs in the previous 20 innings for 5 innings.  Two of those innings were probably going to have to come from Megill and Pagan as well.  In reality, Rocco should have assumed the Twins  needed at least 4, and maybe 5 runs to actually win last night's game, and understood that his lineup is just not producing at that level, or anywhere near it, right now.  As a consequence, he should have pitched Megill in the 5th, Pagan in the 6th (since they were going to have to pitch anyways), and reassessed at that point.

So to answer your question, had Rocco let Megill and Pagan pitch 2 innings last night, and watched the 5-3 game turn into a 9-3 one, I would have been glad that we would be going into a weekend series against a much softer opponent with all our best bullpen options at full strength.  Anyone who prefers chasing an 18% chance to win instead of keeping the powder dry for a 56% chance to win is a prime example of why Las Vegas makes so much money.

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I wasn't exactly optimistic, but they'd also done most of the damage against Houston's bullpen the previous 2 games so a 2 run deficit wasn't a death sentence. I get some of the usage criticism, but I also see a team that had lost 4 straight, desperate to stop the bleeding, and a game that was still in reach. I just can't ding him too much here. If the pen coughs up the game tonight sans Duran or he makes an appearance and struggles my stance my swing. 

I feel like a lot of the criticism plays both sides, hence my question, but hey, if you're willing to live and die by saving those bullets then ok, point taken. Idk how much stock I'd put into individual game win percentages, but more importantly IMO, you want to be using your best players. Ideally it's highest leverage, but at some point the poor performance starts to become a self inflicted if your best arms continue to sit on the shelf. 

[RpR]

When Fulmer dumped the second to last game, they lost their oomph.

[Blyleven2011]

  On 8/26/2022 at 4:18 AM, TopTwinsFan said:

I cant wait until Baldelli is fired. Cant stand watching him and his weak team anymore. Im out. Cant take the losing as well as he can. He has ruined our season. He will never win us a playoff game no less a playoff series. Watching the Twins just makes me angry. What a loser.

Skol Vikings! Go Gophers!

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I concur that he is  not competent nor capable to lead us to the playoffs and win with his methods ,,,,

Might have to wait awhile for the changing of the guards as the owners have been loyal in the past ...

managers and coaches  and of course our FO are drawing salary .

If we performed our jobs with mistakes , we would be fired  ...

All their mishaps and they still have their jobs and that is where I find the humor ....

I personally think the players might be alittle frustrated with Rocco and  FO and their baseball methods  , something is diminishing their talent , drive to win  ... 

Remember San Diego quit on their manager last year....