Astros 6, Twins 3: Like a Broken Record

[David Youngs]

There were moments of brilliance. Yet the Twins dropped another game to the Houston Astros on Thursday evening in the series finale against Houston. 

Box Score
Starting Pitcher: Chris Archer, 4 IP, 8 H, 5 R, 5 ER, BB, 2 K (86 pitches, 55 strikes, 64%)
Home Runs: Jorge Polanco (16)
Bottom 3 WPA: Chris Archer (-.351), Luis Arraez (-.128), Carlos Correa (-.089)
Win Probability Chart (via FanGraphs)

Things looked sweet off the bat when Jorge Polanco put the Twins in front with a solo homer in the bottom of the first inning, launching a 1-0 fastball from Luis Garcia over the right field wall. 

The lead didn't last for long. Chris Archer gave up five hits and four in the bottom of the first, including a three-run homer from Trey Mancini to put the Astros up 4-1. 

Minnesota stabbed back in the second thanks to the hitting and speed of Nick "Flash G" Gordon. Gordon crushed the first pitch of the inning to center field for a leadoff triple. On the next pitch, Gordon scored on a wild pitch to bring the Twins within two. A run scored before Garcia could even register a strike? Not too shabby!

After surrendering a run in the third, The Twins brought the deficit back to two with a sac-fly from Luis Arraez that scored Gary Sanchez. Arraez's sac-fly would be the last laugh from the Twins' offense. The Twins recorded leadoff singles in both the sixth and seventh innings but failed to record any runs. Minnesota recorded only seven hits on the night and left three runners on base. 

Bending Arch
Thursday night wasn't the cleanest day at the office for Twins starter Chris Archer. Through four innings, Archer allowed five runs on eight hits while striking out two and walking one. The outing was a stark contrast from his last start when he threw five innings of three-hit, one-run ball against the Rangers. 

Thursday's five runs were the most that Archer has given up since his July 27th start against the Brewers, when he gave up six runs on three hits through three innings. Archer has recorded a 3.93 ERA and 0.98 WHIP in the month of August. 

Bullpen Battles
Despite the loss, the Twins' bullpen was rock solid on the evening. Jhoan Duran made his earliest appearance of the year, pitching a scoreless fifth inning. Griffin Jax followed suit with a perfect sixth inning; Jax now has six straight scoreless appearances, spanning six combined innings. Seven of Jax's 11 outings in the month of August have kept the opposition from touching home. 

Despite giving up two hits, trade deadline addition Jorge Lopez pitched a scoreless seventh inning, Trevor McGill gave up a two-out run in the eighth but managed to record all three outs on strikeouts.

Bullpen Usage Spreadsheet

 

What's Next
For the first time ever, the San Francisco Giants will head to Target Field to take on the Twins starting tomorrow night. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm CST.

 

 

 

View full article

[JimPohlad1]

We need to take advantage of these games when Cleveland and Chicago lose!

[TopTwinsFan]

I cant wait until Baldelli is fired. Cant stand watching him and his weak team anymore. Im out. Cant take the losing as well as he can. He has ruined our season. He will never win us a playoff game no less a playoff series. Watching the Twins just makes me angry. What a loser.

Skol Vikings! Go Gophers!

[h2oface]

Carlos Correa. A leader? I'm not buying, All that talk, and it is him that needs to step up, not acquisitions he wanted (which all are struggling a bit).

Duran in the 5th, behind by 2. Make all the excuses you want - I could too - but it is just nuts. Lopez in the 7th, and giving up 2 more hits? It seems he left it all in Baltimore and they were sneaky clever about how his year was going to end. Maybe Baldelli was just confused, and he thought it was 2020 and this was part of a 2 day double header and this game was only going to be 7 innings....... 

And maybe it is just how I look at relief, but on Saturday, it was Jax who came in in the 11th, and gave up a single to the first batter and let one of the two inherited runners score the 4th run, which turned out to be the winning run in another 4-3 heartbreaking loss to Texas. Was it charged to him? No. Was it a "scoreless appearance"? Also no. He has been good, but the whole story can be told as well.

[USAFChief]

That new middle reliever they used in thr 5th looked promising. 

[ashbury]

13 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

That new middle reliever they used in thr 5th looked promising. 

The four guys on the bench also impressed me, by staying seated.

[mikelink45]

Our record against playoff teams continues to be outstanding. 

Varland did well again in the minors. Maybe?

I know Correa is a good player but is he worth that salary?  No way he opts out. Noone will match that money after this season. 

I wonder how many of the teams with big salary SS are getting their value.

[Seth Stohs]

53 minutes ago, TopTwinsFan said:

I cant wait until Baldelli is fired. Cant stand watching him and his weak team anymore. Im out. Cant take the losing as well as he can. He has ruined our season. He will never win us a playoff game no less a playoff series. Watching the Twins just makes me angry. What a loser.

Skol Vikings! Go Gophers!

He just has not been a good hitter, a good pitcher (starter or reliever)... and he just can't keep the rest of the players all healthy... 

[D.C Twins]

43 minutes ago, Seth Stohs said:

He just has not been a good hitter, a good pitcher (starter or reliever)... and he just can't keep the rest of the players all healthy... 

He has also neither managed the entire pitching staff particularly well, nor had sensical lineups at times (Arraez batting 5th and Beckham at DH are just a few of my favorites from just the last couple games). 

But, the main reason that it is time to move on is that he doesn't have the natural leadership qualities required to be a great manager. He doesn't appear to change or adapt his approach to best suit the needs of the team at any given time. He also doesn't adjust well on the fly.

Again, he seems to be a quality person by all accounts and I think he will be a fantastic bench coach or front office person in the future with his methodical analytic approach. 

But, he's just not a great manager.  He'll find a better role and thrive. There will be no shame in that game!

[USAFChief]

47 minutes ago, Seth Stohs said:

He just has not been a good hitter, a good pitcher (starter or reliever)... and he just can't keep the rest of the players all healthy... 

Can we take that as an indictment of the front office? They provide the players. The depth. The hitters and pitchers.

 

[Cap'n Piranha]

Down two, Twins have 12 outs left and the 4th batter next up.  Houston has 15 outs left, and the third batter next up.  This suggests the Twins would be lucky to have their 1-3 hitters bat twice, while Houston was almost assured to have their 1-3 hitters bat twice.

Given that, it was patently insane to use Duran, Jax, and Lopez to chase a lead when you would still need at least 6 outs from, let’s say unsteady, options.  Now, at least 2 of those 3 are unavailable Friday night in a close game; not exactly unlikely given the Twins recent offensive struggles.

Rocco seems like the guy who calls a raise with a pair of sixes because he’s pot committed.  In the real world, this move betrays what most be near desperation in the clubhouse.  To use assets so foolishly, in a scenario so unlikely to break in one’s favor, indicates panic-induced poor decision making.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

4 hours ago, Cap'n Piranha said:

Down two, Twins have 12 outs left and the 4th batter next up.  Houston has 15 outs left, and the third batter next up.  This suggests the Twins would be lucky to have their 1-3 hitters bat twice, while Houston was almost assured to have their 1-3 hitters bat twice.

Given that, it was patently insane to use Duran, Jax, and Lopez to chase a lead when you would still need at least 6 outs from, let’s say unsteady, options.  Now, at least 2 of those 3 are unavailable Friday night in a close game; not exactly unlikely given the Twins recent offensive struggles.

Rocco seems like the guy who calls a raise with a pair of sixes because he’s pot committed.  In the real world, this move betrays what most be near desperation in the clubhouse.  To use assets so foolishly, in a scenario so unlikely to break in one’s favor, indicates panic-induced poor decision making.

Lopez and Duran haven’t pitched in a week. Sometimes you gotta give guys some work regardless of the scenario

[LastOnePicked]

6 hours ago, Seth Stohs said:

He just has not been a good hitter, a good pitcher (starter or reliever)... and he just can't keep the rest of the players all healthy... 

Every major league manager faces these exact challenges, and often in much tougher divisions with much tougher schedules. Some help their players rise to the challenge, and some don't. This excuse for Rocco is getting very, very tired by this point.

[Whitey333]

Final score:. Astros 6 Twins 3.  In the 6 games against the Astros this year Twins were outscored 36-11.  Current 6 game losing streak.  Abysmal performance again.  Not unexpected.  Just more frustration 

[bighat]

Don't see how this team wins a series against any team not named Detroit or KC the rest of the year. Honestly don't. And I'm not shocked or surprised, the team looked cooked a week before the ASG. 

[chinmusic]

Occasionally, I wonder how significant the departure of Wes Johnson was to the unraveling of the team.

Not only as a pitching coach, but to the Twin's management group.

For what it's worth, the Twins still control their destiny regarding first place in the division (forget the wild card ) Just something to maintain interest.

But, you know, a combined 0 and 10 vs the Astros and Dodgers this year. Nuff said.

[mikelink45]

1 hour ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

Lopez and Duran haven’t pitched in a week. Sometimes you gotta give guys some work regardless of the scenario

Maybe even stretch them with 2 innings each?

[Vanimal46]

14 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

Maybe even stretch them with 2 innings each?

Duran especially. Made no sense to pitch him 1 inning only, that early in the game. Now our top 3 late inning arms will either be unavailable or forced to pitch back to back games tonight.  

[Otto von Ballpark]

6 hours ago, Cap'n Piranha said:

Down two, Twins have 12 outs left and the 4th batter next up.  Houston has 15 outs left, and the third batter next up.  This suggests the Twins would be lucky to have their 1-3 hitters bat twice, while Houston was almost assured to have their 1-3 hitters bat twice.

Given that, it was patently insane to use Duran, Jax, and Lopez to chase a lead when you would still need at least 6 outs from, let’s say unsteady, options.  Now, at least 2 of those 3 are unavailable Friday night in a close game; not exactly unlikely given the Twins recent offensive struggles.

I'm not sure that any of the 3 are "unavailable" Friday night, based on pitching 1 inning each on Thursday after ample rest. This month, López has twice thrown consecutive nights coming off equal or greater pitch counts; Duran has two such recent games coming off similar pitch counts too (15 and 17).

Likewise, any of them could have thrown more than 1 inning Thursday, if the offense had closed the gap at any point. The offense didn't, so it was better to limit each pitcher to an inning so they could still potentially appear Friday.

We all know there are benefits to saving your best relievers until you need them, but there are diminishing returns to saving them for too long. And yesterday, having not held a lead virtually at all since Saturday, our returns on that strategy had diminished to basically nothing.

[Otto von Ballpark]

30 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

Duran especially. Made no sense to pitch him 1 inning only, that early in the game. Now our top 3 late inning arms will either be unavailable or forced to pitch back to back games tonight.  

Sometimes your top late inning arms need to pitch 2 innings, and sometimes they need to pitch back to back games.

Last night, as the offense failed for 3 innings to close the gap any more than 2 runs, Baldelli judged that it was better to keep them all available for a potential back-to-back rather than stretch any of them to 2 innings in this particular game. Seems eminently defensible.

[Linus]

Megill gives up another homer.  They seriously need to move on from this guy. It will be interesting to see who goes when injured players start returning. 

[RJA]

I hate to be a cynic, but this year looks like it is game, set, match.  I know Seth is thoughtful in his defense of Rocco, and while his game and pitching decisions are "curious", I don't think any manager could win with this lineup.  Gleeman's summary of why the team is losing in the Athletic today is spot on.  Correa is not having a good year but what is really frustrating is that he should be the guy that comes up with the big hits, and timely homeruns, and he has been next to inept in that role this year.  Maybe he put too much pressure on himself trying to create a championship culture, and is struggling to make it happen.  But, one thing is clear, the Twins need to make some changes in the offseason and address the catching situation, Kepler, the bullpen (Lopez has looked shaky since coming over), the starting rotation, etc.  There is a good core with Miranda, Polanco, Buxton, and Arraez, but who knows if Kirilloff will ever be healthy, Lewis will make a full recovery and be the player he was, and Larnach will prove himself.  Kepler needs to be replaced with a solid corner right handed hitting outfielder. On the pitching side, even if Paddack and Maeda are back, how will they perform?  Going into next year, given the inevitability of injuries, they need to add one top starter and bullpen help.  And, they need catching help.  I hope the FO is up to the challenge.

[twinsfan02]

41 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

Duran especially. Made no sense to pitch him 1 inning only, that early in the game. Now our top 3 late inning arms will either be unavailable or forced to pitch back to back games tonight.  

Oh no! It would be such a shame if a professional athlete had to play 2 nights in a row! get real.

[terrydactyls]

9 hours ago, TopTwinsFan said:

I cant wait until Baldelli is fired. Cant stand watching him and his weak team anymore. Im out. Cant take the losing as well as he can. He has ruined our season. He will never win us a playoff game no less a playoff series. Watching the Twins just makes me angry. What a loser.

Skol Vikings! Go Gophers!

I am getting the impression that you don't think too highly of Rocko Baldelli?  You might be overlooking the team he was given by the front office with which to work.  In my opinion, the early season (unexpected) success clouded the judgment of many about the quality of this team.

[Karbo]

An ex-twin once said something to the extent of "its hard to throw when your hands are around your throat". Looks like its hard to hit that way too!

[TwinsAce]

52 minutes ago, Otto von Ballpark said:

Sometimes your top late inning arms need to pitch 2 innings, and sometimes they need to pitch back to back games.

Last night, as the offense failed for 3 innings to close the gap any more than 2 runs, Baldelli judged that it was better to keep them all available for a potential back-to-back rather than stretch any of them to 2 innings in this particular game. Seems eminently defensible.

Agreed.  I was actually happy they brought in Duran AND Lopez so early in the game.  I'd imagine they were hoping Archer would give up 1-2 runs in 4 innings and had a plan for Duran to come into the game in the 5th.  If they could just make the playoffs...that bullpen looks so much better than some years.

Side note - Megill gave up the RBI double, which hurt.  People also seem to run on Celestino's arm (although that was deep enough to be a tough relay for anyone.) But woof, Megill really got squeezed by the umpire (and Sanchez??) on that potential strikeout of Bregman to start the inning.

[Parfigliano]

4 hours ago, chinmusic said:

Occasionally, I wonder how significant the departure of Wes Johnson was to the unraveling of the team.

Not only as a pitching coach, but to the Twin's management group.

For what it's worth, the Twins still control their destiny regarding first place in the division (forget the wild card ) Just something to maintain interest.

But, you know, a combined 0 and 10 vs the Astros and Dodgers this year. Nuff said.

Get to play both again next year.  Yeah!!!

[rv78]

3 hours ago, Vanimal46 said:

Duran especially. Made no sense to pitch him 1 inning only, that early in the game. Now our top 3 late inning arms will either be unavailable or forced to pitch back to back games tonight.  

The top 3 late inning arms will only be needed if the Twins have a lead. Man are you optimistic!

[HerbieFan]

This must be what if felt like to be on the Titanic

[Cap'n Piranha]

4 hours ago, Otto von Ballpark said:

I'm not sure that any of the 3 are "unavailable" Friday night, based on pitching 1 inning each on Thursday after ample rest. This month, López has twice thrown consecutive nights coming off equal or greater pitch counts; Duran has two such recent games coming off similar pitch counts too (15 and 17).

Likewise, any of them could have thrown more than 1 inning Thursday, if the offense had closed the gap at any point. The offense didn't, so it was better to limit each pitcher to an inning so they could still potentially appear Friday.

We all know there are benefits to saving your best relievers until you need them, but there are diminishing returns to saving them for too long. And yesterday, having not held a lead virtually at all since Saturday, our returns on that strategy had diminished to basically nothing.

Sure, they are available, in that they are both physically able to pitch.  But they will likely be diminished versions of themselves, given that they will be pitching on no rest.  Here are the numbers for Duran and Jax when they pitch on rest against no rest (warning, extremely SSS on the no rest side, as it's 4 appearances for 3.2 IP for Duran and 6/4.1 for Jax)

Duran with rest--51 IP, 0.98 WHIP, 1.76 ERA, 11.6 k/9, 0.7 HR/9, 2.3 bb/9

Duran on no rest--3.2 IP, 1.09 WHIP, 4.90 ERA, 9.8 k/9, 4.9 HR/9, 0 bb/9

Jax with rest--37.1 IP, 1.15 WHIP, 3.86 ERA, 11.8 k/9, 1.2 hr/9, 2.9 bb/9

Jax on no rest--4.1 IP, 1.90 WHIP, 10.71 ERA, 6.4 k/9, 0 hr/9, 4.3 bb/9

Hard to draw conclusions given the paucity of data, but some clear deltas in performance that echo those seen in other relief pitchers I've looked at (such as 2018-2020 Taylor Rogers).  Lopez has more data, and for him the differences are pronounced;

With rest--30 IP, 0.90 WHIP, 1.20 ERA, 10.8 k/9, 0.6 hr/9, 1.8 bb/9

On no rest--15.1 IP, 1.50 WHIP, 3.53 ERA, 7.1 k/9, 0.6 hr/9, 5.9 bb/9

I don't think it's unreasonable to anticipate an increased likelihood of poor performance from those 3 should they be used tonight, meaning if the three of them are tasked to hold a one-run lead in innings 7-9, they're more likely to blow that lead, and potentially the game.  If any of the three are used tonight, I think we can all agree they are unavailable tomorrow.  So it's a distinct possibility that by chasing an unlikely win, Rocco will leave himself with a much worse bullpen for the first game or two of the SF series.  Poor managing that should have been very easy to identify as poor managing; unless you are feeling desperate to get a win, and that desperation leads you into making low-probability-of-success choices.