Are Reinforcements Close Enough for the Twins?

[Ted Schwerzler]

The Minnesota Twins have fallen to second place in the American League Central division, and while they needed an influx of pitching help at the deadline, the next wave of reinforcements may not come soon enough. With a 9-8 record and just 10 games left in August, the September stretch becomes vital, but who’s there to help?

 

As I wrote last week, the expectation should be that the division is sorted out in the final month of the season. Minnesota will play the Chicago White Sox and Cleveland Guardians a combined 17 times in September. Separated by anything less than four games when the calendar turns should represent striking distance. The problem is what will have changed for available options at that point?

Right now Rocco Baldelli is forced to roll Jake Cave out on a regular basis. Gary Sanchez has been nothing behind the plate basically all season. The bullpen still has warts, and time is ticking. 

Over the weekend The Athletic’s Aaron Gleeman provided a status update on many of Minnesota’s key pieces. Knowing how awful the lineup has been for weeks suggests that Trevor Larnach and Kyle Garlick could be the most impactful additions. It doesn’t sound like Ryan Jeffers will be back until the second half of September, but the pitching staff should get a few jolts before then. Maybe Josh Winder, Bailey Ober, and Randy Dobnak can provide value in the short term. Hopefully, Kenta Maeda is ready to go soon. No matter what though, all of the timelines still represent a substantial amount of gray area.

There’s no denying that the Twins need to put their best foot forward if they’re going to make the postseason. There’s no reason why this team, even as it’s currently constructed, isn’t making up ground on Cleveland. Sure, the White Sox are without Tim Anderson, and have missed Luis Robert at times. The Guardians have shuffled pieces around Jose Ramirez and Andres Gimenez, but both of those clubs are working towards the same goal as Minnesota.

It’s understandable to look at what could be coming back to the Twins clubhouse and be excited. Having that much impactful talent on the shelf is hardly a positive reality. Until we start seeing rehab assignments and activations though, it’s all just a theoretical hope that the next addition is the one that turns the tide.

I don’t think you can make a case for many of the Twins pending activations to suddenly trend toward the season-ending type, but every day ripped off in September without additions will be an opportunity missed. As healing and rehab procedures trend toward their completion, Minnesota must be aggressive with the goal of maximizing the impact felt by each player.

Taking a look at the Twins record on a rolling monthly basis to this point it’s clear this is a ship that’s been treading water. If they want to be the 18-12 team they were in May to close this out, they’ll have to hope there are no more guys being hidden throughout the roster biding time until they can be swapped out.

 

View full article

[mikelink45]

It is hard to see those recovering players making the difference we need.  Sanchez and Leon are a terrible pair of catchers (217 and 160) and that hurts the lineup.  Kepler has one big game in the month and bats in the key 4/5/6 slots - this is where we need Garlick and Larnarch.  Buxton's big HR total has been stagnant and his RBIs are poor.  Polanco has not been the player we have seen in the past and Cave and Beckham have earned a vacation in St Paul for the rest of the season. 

The player you did not mention for September is Varland.  Right now he is one arm that is producing.

[TwinsDr2021]

I don't think the Twins can count on Maeda, Ober, Winder or Dobnak for anything more than mop up innings the last couple weeks of the season if that. I would expect at least two starts or multiple relief innings in the minors and if that would probably have to happen by next week, if they haven't started that by September I see no chance, unless Ober comes out throwing like 100 and the Twins rush him up.

Fingers crossed Larnach can come up and do well, it might be important for his future with the Twins.

[DJL44]

42 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

I don't think the Twins can count on Maeda, Ober, Winder or Dobnak for anything more than mop up innings the last couple weeks of the season if that. I would expect at least two starts or multiple relief innings in the minors and if that would probably have to happen by next week, if they haven't started that by September I see no chance, unless Ober comes out throwing like 100 and the Twins rush him up.

Agreed, but Dobnak has started the process. He should be up first, and considering they are depending on Aaron Sanchez to start at the moment he could be useful.

[TwinsDr2021]

7 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Agreed, but Dobnak has started the process. He should be up first, and considering they are depending on Aaron Sanchez to start at the moment he could be useful.

True he has pitched 3 innings in the FCL hasn't given up a run, so there is hope.

[rv78]

On the hitting side, you'll need replacements for everyone except Arraez, Miranda and Gordon. Larnach would help if it means less Cave. I'm not a fan of Garlick who can only get a hit against leftys. That still means Kepler plays against rightys so there's no improvement there. The Pitching reinforcements you name won't make a difference if you can't score. Dobnak is AAA material. Ober is not much better than Bundy or Archer who have actually been pitching better as of late. I have not heard if Winder will even be available to pitch this season anymore. Maeda will be relagated to the bullpen and to expect a lot of help from a guy coming off TJ surgery could be a huge mistake. I think the team in September will be pretty much the same team as it is now. Unless we see more injuries, which would result in seeing even more AAA players that aren't good enough to be here in the first place. 

[Trov]

I am not expect anyone to come up and make a difference, maybe Larnach if he can hit like he did prior to injuries, but he has been up and down his whole short career.  We really need the current players to hit like they have in the past.  Getting 1 hit with RISP but having a ton of chances will not get it done.  We are not hitting HR right now either so runs have been hard to come by.  You cannot expect your staff to get shutouts every game. 

[Karbo]

52 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Agreed, but Dobnak has started the process. He should be up first, and considering they are depending on Aaron Sanchez to start at the moment he could be useful.

If they are counting on Dobnak to save them the fans will be disappointed.

[Doctor Gast]

Our most reasonable hope is that Larnach comes back close to himself in the state was in before he left. Buxton & Kepler desperately needs some time off to recuperate, it's not easy playing through nagging injuries. It's crazy to see Beckman DHing & Arraez playing 2B last nite when we have a very capable glove & probable bat in Polacios sitting in AAA. Polanco never lets on when he's hurt, he could use some rest as well as Correa. I don't see any positive results in trying to see how far we can extend our players, that's include pitchers.

[PDX Twin]

52 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

Our most reasonable hope is that Larnach comes back close to himself in the state was in before he left. Buxton & Kepler desperately needs some time off to recuperate, it's not easy playing through nagging injuries. It's crazy to see Beckman DHing & Arraez playing 2B last nite when we have a very capable glove & probable bat in Polacios sitting in AAA. Polanco never lets on when he's hurt, he could use some rest as well as Correa. I don't see any positive results in trying to see how far we can extend our players, that's include pitchers.

Sounds like the Twins need the season to be one month shorter. They are staggering toward the home stretch, not toward the finish line.

[FlyingFinn]

Just being on the IL has made Jeffers, Garlick and Larnach look SO much better. Jeffers at least gets a hit once in awhile, Garlick can hit lefties and Larnach can mean we don't have to suffer through Jake Cave (though I like how he tries hard).

[LA VIkes Fan]

The guys that could maybe help are Larnach, Garlick, and Maeda. None may help but Larnach is really the key. If he can hit some, he can essentially be the full time DH/LF. We desperately need another middle of the order bat to hit ahead of Gordon, Urshela and Kepler. If he were to come back and hit, he could really help. And if Buxton is out for awhile we need the help even more. 

The rest is marginal. Garlick can at least put Kepler on the bench against lefties so that's some help. Maeda can hopefully take some of the stretch innings that would go to Pagan and Megill. Big help? No, but maybe something on the margins. Seems like a game or two may matter so even the margins help. 

Oh, by the way, I think Aaron Sanchez is actually going to help down the stretch. 

[RpR]

52 minutes ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

None may help but Larnach is really the key. If he can hit some, he can essentially be the full time DH/LF.

What Crystal Ball did you look in that says Larnach, who was hitting .231 will return to the form he lost weeks before his injury (he was a double hitting monster at one point) and his arm is no better than most who played  left field .

[Sean.h]

3 hours ago, rv78 said:

On the hitting side, you'll need replacements for everyone except Arraez, Miranda and Gordon. Larnach would help if it means less Cave. I'm not a fan of Garlick who can only get a hit against leftys. That still means Kepler plays against rightys so there's no improvement there. The Pitching reinforcements you name won't make a difference if you can't score. Dobnak is AAA material. Ober is not much better than Bundy or Archer who have actually been pitching better as of late. I have not heard if Winder will even be available to pitch this season anymore. Maeda will be relagated to the bullpen and to expect a lot of help from a guy coming off TJ surgery could be a huge mistake. I think the team in September will be pretty much the same team as it is now. Unless we see more injuries, which would result in seeing even more AAA players that aren't good enough to be here in the first place. 

replacing ABs from Cave/Celestino/Beckham with Larnach/Garlick is a SIGNIFICANT upgrade IMHO

[LA VIkes Fan]

Larnach might not provide much help but there is hope. He was hitting well before the injury dragged him down and had a good walk rate. It will take some games to knock the rust off but I could see him providing a .260/.325/.425 kind of boost down the stretch. Better than Kepler, better than Celestino, more power than Gordon with the same OPS range. Maybe he and Garlick become a platoon in LF (where Laranch rated highly on defense), Gordon can play CF with a Celestino/Kepler platoon in RF since Buxton may need to primarily DH if he can play at all after last night. If Buxton can come back and play CF, Kepler should be the odd man out to be the 4th OF with Gordon playing every day although I don't trust Baldelli to see it the same way.  IF performance is the basis and hitting counts more than defense on a team that is having trouble scoring runs, Gordon is the winner over Kepler. 

Buxton as a full time DH creates an interesting situation since the Miranda/Arraez/Urshela group only has 1B, 3B, and DH to get them all in the lineup. Somehow injuries seem to take care of these things, particularly for this team.  My guess is Buxton goes on the 10 day IL this week, Garlick comes up, Larnach is up next week, Cave goes DFA, Beckham goes DFA when Buxton comes back. 

[LA VIkes Fan]

2 minutes ago, Sean.h said:

replacing ABs from Cave/Celestino/Beckham with Larnach/Garlick is a SIGNIFICANT upgrade IMHO

Absolutely right. I would add Kepler to that first group. 

[Reptevia]

If Larnach hitting .232 and Garlick career .237 are the upgrades…I look forward to next year. 

[Battle ur tail off]

4 hours ago, DJL44 said:

Agreed, but Dobnak has started the process. He should be up first, and considering they are depending on Aaron Sanchez to start at the moment he could be useful.

And what are we going to get out of him? He was not great when he was healthy. This is just adding another Bundy at best. No help, more treading water. Sanchez has been good in St. Paul and had a good game up here. Don't expect more out of Dobnak than a AAA guy that will get a spot start for the rest of his career with the Twins. 

[roger]

Keep being amazed when reading daily box scores about other team pitching.  I know Wainright has been pitching for the Cards forever.  But yesterday some guy named Montgomery threw a complete game 1 hit shutout.  Don’t recall knowing anything about him, but where do the Cards keep getting these guys.  The Twins don’t seem to find ‘em.  And if they did they wouldn’t let them pitch more than 5 innings anyway.

[Battle ur tail off]

49 minutes ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

Buxton as a full time DH creates an interesting situation since the Miranda/Arraez/Urshela group only has 1B, 3B, and DH to get them all in the lineup. Somehow injuries seem to take care of these things, particularly for this team.  My guess is Buxton goes on the 10 day IL this week, Garlick comes up, Larnach is up next week, Cave goes DFA, Beckham goes DFA when Buxton comes back. 

Jake Cave will stay on the 40 man as he has an option still. I would not be wise to DFA him now with the injury situation to our entire outfield unless you have someone else to take his 40 man spot that can play outfield and judging by the fact we are using Beckham, we don't. 

[LA VIkes Fan]

Thanks for the clarification on Cave. I thought he was out of options. No reason for the DFA then, just option him back to AAA. 

[lukeduke1980]

Is Wallner or anyone in the minors worth a shot?

[DJL44]

33 minutes ago, lukeduke1980 said:

Is Wallner or anyone in the minors worth a shot?

No, not really

[SwainZag]

1 hour ago, roger said:

Keep being amazed when reading daily box scores about other team pitching.  I know Wainright has been pitching for the Cards forever.  But yesterday some guy named Montgomery threw a complete game 1 hit shutout.  Don’t recall knowing anything about him, but where do the Cards keep getting these guys.  The Twins don’t seem to find ‘em.  And if they did they wouldn’t let them pitch more than 5 innings anyway.

They got him from the Yankees at the deadline.  His 4 game run since the trade is pretty much as historic as they come.

[ashbury]

2 hours ago, Reptevia said:

If Larnach hitting .232 and Garlick career .237 are the upgrades…I look forward to next year. 

Larnach was hitting .299 at the end of May after peaking shortly before then at .310.  He clearly wasn't right during the month of June and got shut down when they discovered the problem.  Players have ups and downs, but I don't think .232 gives a useful picture of him as a player.

Garlick has a role: Designated Lefty Killer.  I'm not a big fan of using scarce roster spots that way in this era of large pitching staffs, but it's fairer to look at his career .266 BA when facing those of the left handed persuasion, if assessing what he may bring to the offense if he comes back.

Of course I'm not a big fan of using BA to judge a player, but I'm replying to your take, not some other.

[FlyingFinn]

57 minutes ago, lukeduke1980 said:

Is Wallner or anyone in the minors worth a shot?

No on Wallner, not this year. Seems to start slow at each level and then improve. If he starts to excel at AAA, we can expect a slow start with the Twins as well. There will certainly be those who will want him sent back down to the minors after a week. The key will be to not move in reverse like Sano did at the end of his time with the Twins. 

[SwainZag]

1 hour ago, Reptevia said:

If Larnach hitting .232 and Garlick career .237 are the upgrades…I look forward to next year. 

I think on the broadcast last night they said 8 of the last 12 games the Twins had were against left handed starters.

Garlick crushes lefties to the tune of a .928 OPS this season.  Seems that bat in the lineup would have been a massive upgrade over Beckham's .100 batting average, Gordon's .627 OPS vs L, or Kepler's .655 OPS vs L.

[Thebigalguy]

I've had to scratch my head at the paltry offense and inability to hit with RISP. It's truly pathetic right now. Teams like to say that hitting is contagious. So are slumps. Five runs in four games against the Rangers? There's no excuse for that in God's heaven or Satan's hell, so I suppose that means right now the Twins are in purgatory. All of them should be batting off tees as I write these words. They can't do anything about umps who call balls strikes, of course, but they can learn again to hit line drives instead of grounders and fly outs. Garlick will help. The others? Meh. They all need noogies to wake them up.

[mikelink45]

2 hours ago, roger said:

Keep being amazed when reading daily box scores about other team pitching.  I know Wainright has been pitching for the Cards forever.  But yesterday some guy named Montgomery threw a complete game 1 hit shutout.  Don’t recall knowing anything about him, but where do the Cards keep getting these guys.  The Twins don’t seem to find ‘em.  And if they did they wouldn’t let them pitch more than 5 innings anyway.

They got him in a trade with the Yankees. "Montgomery departed from the Yankees clubhouse on August 2 with a 3.69 ERA on the year (over 21 starts in pinstripes). He now has a 3.29 ERA in 2022." 

[Greglw3]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

No, not really

Possible help: AAA Chris Williams (power at AA and 5 HR in first 25 AB in AAA), Michael Helman (10 HR)

AA Edouard Julien (.438 OBP and .935 OPS), Austin Martin (.371 OBP and 27/31 SB), Alex Isola (C) .926 OPS, DeShawn Keirsey CF (34/38 SB) .257 ave. 6 HR .708 OPS Maybe a rich man’s Billy Hamilton?