If you’d say Correa would have less than 40 RBI 2/3rds of the way through August I’d assume he’s been injured since May. 

5 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

There's an episode of Effectively Wild where they interviewed the woman who heads the company that does Apple TV's probability stats.

Long story short, their probabilities are garbage.

I LOVE the idea of probability on the fly but this implementation of it is really bad. Sandy Leon with a 35% probability of reaching base.

Yeah, sure okay.

They just showed Carlos Correa had a 33% chance of GIDP.

 

Swing the bat Carlos. 

Sandy Leon's OBP is .348

Correa. Come on dude. Make the adjustment. 

Just now, howeda7 said:

Science. 

Where it appears they're going wrong based on the interview is that they're weighting small player sample sizes WAY too heavily and not balancing it enough with historical context of the sport.

We've seen Buxton hit a few 0-2 bombs this season, which probably led to that nonsensical probability fluctuation.

1 minute ago, Sutter50 said:

Sandy Leon's OBP is .348

His career OBP is .280.

Correa with 6 RBI over the past month, still sitting on 39 for the year. 

Just because he hasn't been horrible doesn't mean he's not a bust. 

This year with twins is .348

5 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

I like that they’re trying something different, but I’d rather see the pitch sequence each at bat vs. a probability of getting a hit. 

Or GIDP...

2 hours ago, twinssporto said:

Miranda goes crazy tonight. Correa goes crazy at the plate too...

Huge output from these two tonight! Bet on it. Trust me....

Just logged on in time for Correa’s third AB. Another one like that, and he may indeed go crazy! ?

2 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

If you’d say Correa would have less than 40 RBI 2/3rds of the way through August I’d assume he’s been injured since May. 

Miranda has 12 more RBI in over 100 fewer PA somehow.

Though I suppose it hasn’t helped Correa that ahead of him, Buxton has either already homered, or isn’t on base.

1 minute ago, bighat said:

Correa with 6 RBI over the past month, still sitting on 39 for the year. 

Just because he hasn't been horrible doesn't mean he's not a bust. 

He’s a real shortstop, Twins haven’t seen that since JJ Hardy

1 minute ago, bighat said:

Correa with 6 RBI over the past month, still sitting on 39 for the year. 

Just because he hasn't been horrible doesn't mean he's not a bust. 

$897,435.90 for every run he’s driven in this year. 

Just now, Sutter50 said:

This year with twins is .348

Sure, but it's 24 PAs. He has 1600 career PAs. Which is more instructive when calculating probability?

And therein lies the problem with this implementation.

Just now, Vanimal46 said:

$897,435.90 for every run he’s driven in this year. 

He gets paid for defense too

2 hours ago, mrtwinsfan said:

Apple on the mind tonight ,Apple Schnapps only 2 shots-  Game on Apple and Apple Pie + ice cream for Desert  Go Twins!!!!!

I’ve made chicken breast stuffed with apple and bacon. Not to jinx things or anything with the chicken reference…

19 minutes ago, LVTwinsfan said:

?

You're going on THE LIST.

Just now, LVTwinsfan said:

He gets paid for defense too

That is true. Since the day he signed everyone has said he’ll opt out. As each day passes and he doesn’t heat up, I’m skeptical he will. 

3 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

$897,435.90 for every run he’s driven in this year. 

It's only money.

 

3 minutes ago, LVTwinsfan said:

He gets paid for defense too

He probably was hired for defense.

1 minute ago, Vanimal46 said:

That is true. Since the day he signed everyone has said he’ll opt out. As each day passes and he doesn’t heat up, I’m skeptical he will. 

And with the Lewis injury, I'm more hopeful every day that he doesn't!

2 minutes ago, LVTwinsfan said:

He’s a real shortstop, Twins haven’t seen that since JJ Hardy

He's getting paid to be a top-10 MLB athlete and difference-maker, not to be a "real shortstop". 

Calling him "the best SS the Twins have seen in 10 years" or whatever is irrelevant. Fans, coaches, and ownership were looking for way, way more than that with this signing. 

3 minutes ago, IndianaTwin said:

I’ve made chicken breast stuffed with apple and bacon. Not to jinx things or anything with the chicken reference…

That sounds quite good...

Glad I already ate though.

I am surprised Miranda struck out on that pitch, Morneau said awhile back the botton inside corner is his weak spot

3 minutes ago, Shaitan said:

You're going on THE LIST.

Just joking around

2 minutes ago, wsnydes said:

And with the Lewis injury, I'm more hopeful every day that he doesn't!

Same. I have no problem whatsoever having Correa around for another year at $35 million. Odds are he’ll have a much better year in 2023 than this year. 

2 minutes ago, bighat said:

He's getting paid to be a top-10 MLB athlete and difference-maker, not to be a "real shortstop". 

Calling him "the best SS the Twins have seen in 10 years" or whatever is irrelevant. Fans, coaches, and ownership were looking for way, way more than that with this signing. 

Irrelevant that he’s the best defensive shortstop they’ve had in 10 years….sorry that’s far from irrelevant

2 minutes ago, bighat said:

He's getting paid to be a top-10 MLB athlete and difference-maker, not to be a "real shortstop". 

Calling him "the best SS the Twins have seen in 10 years" or whatever is irrelevant. Fans, coaches, and ownership were looking for way, way more than that with this signing. 

Absolutely true but the season ain't over yet. If the Twins reach the postseason - and I think they will - that's when we'll really need the "real" Carlos Correa to show up.

Do mine eyes deceive me?  Bundy pitching in the 6th?? Who is managing tonight????