Who is the Twins 2022 Rookie of the Year?

[bean5302]

14 hours ago, IowaBeancounter said:

If Miranda continues hitting close to his post all-star clip (.360 ave & .950 OPS) he should be ROY.  Rodriquez was injured, but post all-star he is at .208 ave. & .672 OPS.  Can someone explain why Miranda only has a bWAR of 1.2?

It's defense and base running related. First base has a negative defensive value in general, Miranda has mostly played first, and not very well.

When Miranda has played 3B, he's actually right about league average in a very small sample size. If Miranda was a full time 3B and his defensive value (BIS DRS for bWAR and UZR for fWAR), Miranda would probably be around 2.0 bWAR/fWAR right now.

Basically, 3B is worth +2.5 runs for Fangraphs and 2.0 runs for Baseball Reference and Miranda's been neutral at the position. 1B is worth -12.5 runs for Fangraphs and -9.5 runs for Baseball Reference. The net spread ranges from 11.5 to 15.0 runs in a full season between 3B and 1B. Miranda has 1/4 of a season at 1B so he's been hit with -3 to -4 runs by playing 1B instead of 3B. In addition, Miranda hasn't played 1B very well by Baseball Reference's standard (BIS Defensive Runs Saved) at -3 so far vs. neutral at 3B.

The net spread for bWAR is -6 runs defensively vs. where he'd be if he exclusively played 3B and that's 0.6 bWAR. Base running costs him another run for bWAR for a total hit to WAR of 0.7. Something about like that anyway.

Do keep in mind he's only started about 65 games this year. In a full season at 3B, he's pretty close to a 5 WAR pace right now.


 

[Major League Ready]

4 hours ago, bean5302 said:

It's defense and base running related. First base has a negative defensive value in general, Miranda has mostly played first, and not very well.

When Miranda has played 3B, he's actually right about league average in a very small sample size. If Miranda was a full time 3B and his defensive value (BIS DRS for bWAR and UZR for fWAR), Miranda would probably be around 2.0 bWAR/fWAR right now.

Basically, 3B is worth +2.5 runs for Fangraphs and 2.0 runs for Baseball Reference and Miranda's been neutral at the position. 1B is worth -12.5 runs for Fangraphs and -9.5 runs for Baseball Reference. The net spread ranges from 11.5 to 15.0 runs in a full season between 3B and 1B. Miranda has 1/4 of a season at 1B so he's been hit with -3 to -4 runs by playing 1B instead of 3B. In addition, Miranda hasn't played 1B very well by Baseball Reference's standard (BIS Defensive Runs Saved) at -3 so far vs. neutral at 3B.

The net spread for bWAR is -6 runs defensively vs. where he'd be if he exclusively played 3B and that's 0.6 bWAR. Base running costs him another run for bWAR for a total hit to WAR of 0.7. Something about like that anyway.

Do keep in mind he's only started about 65 games this year. In a full season at 3B, he's pretty close to a 5 WAR pace right now.


 

Great analysis.  I have always thought he was 3B long-term.  He plays that position better and 1B is much easier to fill.  I can't believe how many people were willing to trade him 3 weeks ago.  Replacing Donaldson and his $21.75M salary with Miranda's is the most beneficial / impactful thing that has developed this year.  Duran is a big development as well but if they do something with the $20M saved that move is going to be huge going forward.

[JD-TWINS]

Miranda has gotten us into and/or helped keep us in most of those 43 appearances Duran has had. A bunch of the line-up took a dive after June 1 & Miranda sparked us in a bunch of the wins we’ve put together over the past 75 days!

Duran has talent and I hope he can stay healthy……..he’s a really good back end guy!

Ryan would have been the guy in June - has gone somewhat flat. Hope he continues to gain on his command in the zone. May take another year or two. Good enough stuff to go .500 or better in his rookie year with signs of durability - that’s a big plus!!