Did the Twins Find Value in Bundy and Archer?

[Ted Schwerzler]

This offseason the Minnesota Twins front office went for two separate bargain signings in the starting rotation. Targeting both Dylan Bundy and Chris Archer, the organization clearly was trying to squeeze more from both of them. Now nearing the end of the season, how has it worked out?

 

Coming out of the lockout and going into Spring Training, it was always apparent that Minnesota needed to add frontline starting pitching. Jose Berrios was traded near the peak of his value, and finding an heir to the top of the rotation was a must. With Kenta Maeda set to be shelved for much of 2022, alternative options had to be explored.

Ultimately Sonny Gray was the ace acquired for Minnesota’s starting rotation, but value plays were made with Bundy and Archer. Both had seen previous success, but neither seemed to be much more than an opportunity to capture lightning in a bottle. Where are we at now?

Dylan Bundy
After posting a 6.06 ERA with the Los Angeles Angels last season, Minnesota was certainly hoping to sign the Bundy that tallied a 3.29 ERA in 11 starts during the 2020 season. Now owning a 4.76 ERA with a 4.28 FIP, Bundy hasn’t been the best version of himself, but he also has avoided consistently being the worst starter in baseball that he has flashed at times.

Bundy’s strikeout numbers have dropped substantially this season, all the way down to a 6.9 K/9, but he’s given up less walks and homers than he ever before has. His 3.86 xERA also suggests that he’s been better than the counting stats may indicate. Some credit is owed to Bundy reinventing himself while losing velocity. His 89 mph fastball is lower than it’s ever been, but he’s generated a career best chase rate and still gets whiffs 10% of the time.

Having been worth 1.0 fWAR in 2022, Fangraphs puts Bundy’s value at $8.2 million. Signed for $5 million this season, Bundy won’t have his $11 million option for 2023 picked up, but he’s given the Twins exactly what they bargained for in 2022.

Chris Archer
Signed to a $3.5 million deal for 2022, Minnesota took a last minute look at Archer despite him having pitched under 20 innings since 2019. Archer has tried to battle back from injury, most notably undergoing surgery to correct Thoracic Outlet Syndrome. Shoulder issues are typically more altering to pitcher trajectories than arm issues, and that’s been part of what has held Archer back.

His 4.15 ERA across 20 starts is backed by a 4.42 FIP. He’s nowhere near the pitcher he once was, striking out just 7.5 per nine and walking a career worst 4.5 per nine. Allowed to go just two times through the lineup each start, Archer has basically been a tightrope walker. Working around traffic and trying not to give in too greatly, he’s consistently put the Twins bullpen in a situation where they’ll need to work overtime.

Archer’s velocity is actually up a bit from where it was last season but he’s not getting whiffs or chases on his stuff. Needing to nibble on the edges, there’s consistently been situations where the walks pile up in bunches. At 0.6 fWAR though, Fangraphs suggests Minnesota has gotten what they paid for as he’s generated $4.7 million of value.

Like Bundy, Archer won’t have his 2023 option picked up either, but both have been about as expected. There’s been more to like with the former first round pick, but neither are something that will be missed when they wind up elsewhere. In a vacuum, both arms could have made sense in Minnesota, but pairing either with a bad bullpen leaves opportunity for exposure on a weekly basis. It’s hard to go the route of bargain bin shopping in the rotation when you do the same thing in relief.

 

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[blindeke]

Nailed it.

[PatPfund]

Fair assessment. If Winder, Ober, and Maeda all come back healthy in 2-3 weeks, my hope is the Twins talk to Archer about the bullpen. Yes, I know he doesn't want that, but he also isn't going to turn into some sort of playoff weapon (as the Twins hoped); at least not as a starter. He might have the stuff that pumps up effectively for an inning or so.

If he says 'no', well... I'd rather have any of the returning three opening ball games than Archer at this point. (Meaning I'd waive good-bye to him along with Pagan, and an option for Sands/Megill to make room if needed. With thanks for doing most of what they hoped for.)

[JDubs]

3 minutes ago, PatPfund said:

If Winder, Ober, and Maeda all come back healthy in 2-3 weeks, my hope is the Twins talk to Archer about the bullpen.

Given how much he has to manage his health just to get ready for every start, I don't think Archer could work in the bullpen even if he was amenable to it. As weak as the bullpen is, once you get to the playoffs you have offdays and don't need as much depth. So you've got Lopez, Duran, Fulmer, Thielbar and maybe Maeda and Winder if they're back, which really leaves no place for Archer. Hell, even if Maeda and Winder aren't back, there's still really no place for Archer on a playoff roster.

[Rosterman]

When you get to the playofs, you may not need that fifth starter as much as an additional long man in the pen.

Bargain bins shoping at the dollar store. If you want to compete, the Twins need to step up and give the ball to anyone better, if the opportunity arises. Sadly playing with fire and have to work Winder, Ober and Maeda into the swing of things inividually...kind of have them take the palce of each other if they aren't quite healthy.

Not sure if need to continue the aRCHER EXPERIMENT FOR ANOTHER SEASON. aND NOT SURE IF aRCHER OR bUNDY INCREASED THEIR VALUE IN ANY WAY FOR 2023. We need both to be consistent right now, if that is asking too much. But it may not be enough to get to the playoffs.

[FlyingFinn]

I think Bundy and Archer have done what the Twins expected and maybe hoped. They have been the most consistent starters to take the ball every 6th day. The Twins have there own internal salary cap and need the 5 inning, 2 times through the batting order starting pitcher to be a cheaper, younger, better, throw 6 innings sometimes pitcher like a healthy Winder and Ober would be. At least, you can't have two starters who consistently throw 4 or 5 innings in a game (and we need Gray, Mahle and Ryan to more consistently go 6 innings).

[Linus]

Bundy has had a number of excellent starts along with some clunkers. All in all he hasn’t been bad as a fifth starter. I wouldn’t pick up his option but I also wouldn’t mind bringing him back as depth. 
Archer is a no go. He just doesn’t provide enough value with his limited schedule. Plus he walks an entire marching band half the time. 

[Mike Sixel]

52 minutes ago, JDubs said:

Given how much he has to manage his health just to get ready for every start, I don't think Archer could work in the bullpen even if he was amenable to it. As weak as the bullpen is, once you get to the playoffs you have offdays and don't need as much depth. So you've got Lopez, Duran, Fulmer, Thielbar and maybe Maeda and Winder if they're back, which really leaves no place for Archer. Hell, even if M aeda and Winder aren't back, there's still really no place for Archer on a playoff roster.

A lot less off days this year, due to the late start to the year. That said, I doubt he's starting a game in the post season, though if he did, four innings would be great 

[mikelink45]

This is hard.  I think they did what was expected, but we should have expected more.  Ryan is not an Ace, just a good pitcher.  Gray is what we wanted and hopefully Mahle will deliver like the last game.  But the rest of the rotation is not championship quality.  If they had been piggybacked - each doing half a game and still being treated like starters how much would we have saved the BP and how many games would we have gained?

[Mike Sixel]

They've both been better than I thought. So, yes. 

[silverslugger]

I don't disagree that they've lived up to the value of the contracts they signed.  I think the bigger issue here though is the loss of opportunity from signing these players.  In order to fully understand value, I think we have to ask what the Twins could have done instead of signing these two with those dollars.  We also have to look at the cost of signing in terms of it's effect on bullpen use/overuse.  When you sign two reclamation projects and they both end up being starting less than innings eating starting pitchers almost the entire year, well, that's 40% of your rotation killing the 'pen.

[Blyleven2011]

Have the twins received value  ...

 

 ALOT MORE THAN 2021 , and you know  who they were .... 

The laughing squad of the dumpster diving ....

[farmerguychris]

They were both signed to be placeholders for a year while our young talent recovered from injuries and was ready to go hopefully late this, or for next season.  With that said, you get what you pay for and these are good examples of that.  Not awful, but not very good either.  I would not bring either of them back for next year if we can avoid it.

[Brandon]

We got good value form both.  Archer has been treated the same way Ober was last year.  How many starts does he have with over 80 pitches?  I bet next season he would get more starts with 90-100 pitches.  That will make him a 5 inning starter which is fine.  Bundy is a 5 inning starter that is average, also good.   I don’t see either option picked up though Bundy could be since he is close to the value of that option.  But I could see the Twins bringing both back on new contracts with raises over this year and with incentives to get close to the option contract.  

[bean5302]

fWAR shows 1.0 and 0.6 while bWAR shows 0.0 and 0.2, respectively.

That said, the Twins haven't done Bundy or Archer many favors by allowing them to accumulate WAR. The only reason starters provide so much more value than relievers is innings. The fact starters are expected to go TTO and Baldelli almost always pulls them before then means the Twins have chained Bundy and Archer's WAR production significantly. No innings = no WAR.

When it comes to calculating true value, I don't think the $8MM per WAR calculation is any good at all. It doesn't reflect true contributions to the team and it doesn't reflect what the team was hoping to buy. Teams have been trying to buy WAR closer to $6MM historically and a starting pitcher producing 2.0 WAR is just treading water in terms of actual team contributions.

A typical team needs about 90 wins to make the playoffs. That's about 45 WAR.
Starting Position Players - 9 at 2.0 WAR
Starting Rotation Players - 5 at 2.0 WAR
Bullpen Players - 8 at 0.5 WAR
Utility Players - 4 at 0.8 WAR
Injury Replacements - 10.0 WAR

Less than that, and the team is short on WAR to make the playoffs and another player has to carry the load. A starting pitcher who can't get to about 2 WAR on the season is a net negative on a team's playoff chances, which is why signing those 1.0 WAR types of players is a waste of money.

I think Bundy's ERA and WAR would both be quite a bit better if he hadn't gotten the early hook all the time. There have been many, many games this year he should have trotted back out for another inning or 3.

[Mike Sixel]

I count 13 good starts and 7 bad starts for Bundy. While I generally think fWAR makes sense, I think that pitchers are different every five days. Some days are good, some bad. I don't think you can peanut butter their play across the year like you can hitters.

If you had been told you'd get 13 good and 7 bad starts from Bundy at the beginning of the year, you'd be thrilled. Very thrilled.

[TwinsDr2021]

27 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

I count 13 good starts and 7 bad starts for Bundy. While I generally think fWAR makes sense, I think that pitchers are different every five days. Some days are good, some bad. I don't think you can peanut butter their play across the year like you can hitters.

If you had been told you'd get 13 good and 7 bad starts from Bundy at the beginning of the year, you'd be thrilled. Very thrilled.

I agree with this statement it isn't Bundy's fault that everybody got hurt and forced him up the chain thus making him look worse than he is.

I think most teams (maybe not the the top few) would say for $5 million I get a 5th starter that doesn't miss a start goes on average 5 innings with an ERA of 4.76 (knowing it is that high because a 1/3 of his starts are probably crap) would say sign me up.

[Doctor Gast]

My impression from early in the off season was that they'd incorporate some form of the piggy-back system. Because they only had 2 rookies & just aquired Bundy, who had some successive in a shorten season but fizzled out during a regular season. They knew Bundy wasn't more than 5 inning guy, the problem came when they tried to extend him to 6 innings on an regular basis. The problem isn't that Bundy didn't live up to expectations, it was trying to make him more than he is.

Likewise they knew what they got when they signed Archer, an high upside veteran pitcher who hasn't pitched much for 2 & 1/2 years comng back from injury, building up arm strength. Since his return this season he has steadily progressed in SOs & innings pitched. Archer's best pitches are his FB & slider with his change-up above average. Although his change-up isn't his best pitch but when thrown to offset his primary pitches, he gets alot of KS, KL and weak contact if they do make contact. Which makes total sense to me to sneak that change-up in with a 0/2, 1/2 or 2/2 counts which they never do.

The failure of the BP isn't due to Bundy or Archer it's due to the failure of incorporating a strong long relief corp. Any undesireable results from Bundy or Archer isn't due to them not living up to their expectations but mismanagement. Right now I see Archer trending up and Ryan trending down. By the end of regular season, I see Archer able to pitch 5 very solid innings sometimes 6 and with his veteran experience he could line up as the Twins #3 pitcher going into the play offs.

IMO both Bundy & Archer has pitched above expectations.

[DJL44]

A helluva lot more value than they found with Shoemaker and Happ.

[Fritzderkat]

I admire Archer for hanging in there, and I like the way he goes about his business.

[jmlease1]

1 hour ago, Mike Sixel said:

I count 13 good starts and 7 bad starts for Bundy. While I generally think fWAR makes sense, I think that pitchers are different every five days. Some days are good, some bad. I don't think you can peanut butter their play across the year like you can hitters.

If you had been told you'd get 13 good and 7 bad starts from Bundy at the beginning of the year, you'd be thrilled. Very thrilled.

I like fWAR to try and predict future ability from a pitcher, but bWAR probably shows a more complete version of what actually occurred when the pitcher threw. JMO because of the differences in how they calculate. (You could argue that much like poll aggregation, the best estimator of their actual value might be to take the average of the two?)

I have to agree: we got more than I really expected out of Bundy. His overall health this season has definitely contributed to that: when a lot of pitchers of have missed games, he's taken the ball. As a 5th starter, he's not bad. as a 3rd starter, it's trouble. 

Archer...I think I expected a bit more, at least as the season went along. I thought he might get stretched out a bit more after midseason, and unless you have a reliable long man to partner with him in the bullpen, those 4 inning starts just aren't sustainable. the walk rate has been disappointing as well. (Archer, like so many of our starters, sure has given a free pass to a lot of guys in the 7-8-9 slots) I had a little higher hope for him than Bundy initially, so I guess I'm mildly disappointed.

but neither has been a disaster. They're 5-6th starter guys, though.

[KirbyDome89]

I think we're stretching the definition of value.

Archer's short starts are torching an already overtaxed pen, and even with the short leash his meltdowns are so sudden it's nearly impossible to prevent damage. He's already made something like $5.5M based on appearance incentives, and 6 more starts will put him over $7M. There's no value there; the Twins are going to end up paying back end starter money to a guy that's a long relief arm at best. 

Bundy....eh. It took his last start against a hapless Angels team to sneak his ERA under 5. No, he hasn't been one of the worst starters in baseball, but the fact that we're even considering a bar that low kinda says it all. They're getting bargain bin production at a bargain bin price. If he's your worst starter on an otherwise solid staff, ok, fine. Unfortunately that isn't the case. 

[Battle ur tail off]

4 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

They've both been better than I thought. So, yes. 

I agree, me too. I have to give the Twins some credit here. I thought 1 or both of them would be DFA'd by June. 

If we'd not have signed them and had to fill in with pitchers in our system, we'd be digging way way down with the amount of injuries to our home grown guys. 

 

[gman]

Without them who would we have had healthy for the 4th & 5th spouts in the rotation. Win or lose they still needed someone to put out there. So I think we got value.

[twins_89]

Bunday and Archer have been solid signings, but if things had gone better for the organization I think both would have been out of the rotation by July. Injuries to Paddack, Ober, and Winder have really hurt the team. In addition, having none of Balazovic, Woods Richardson, or Canterino pushing for a spot has been a big disappointment. Bundy/Archer have been fine as the 4/5 starters, I just wish that better options had made them expendable.

[KirbyDome89]

1 hour ago, Battle ur tail off said:

I agree, me too. I have to give the Twins some credit here. I thought 1 or both of them would be DFA'd by June. 

If we'd not have signed them and had to fill in with pitchers in our system, we'd be digging way way down with the amount of injuries to our home grown guys. 

 

If internal options weren't an absolute disaster Bundy would've been in serious jeopardy of losing his job in June. The Twins being forced to roll with him in the rotation isn't credit worthy. 

[Craig Arko]

They’re both still here so I imagine so.

[LA VIkes Fan]

1 hour ago, twins_89 said:

Bunday and Archer have been solid signings, but if things had gone better for the organization I think both would have been out of the rotation by July. Injuries to Paddack, Ober, and Winder have really hurt the team. In addition, having none of Balazovic, Woods Richardson, or Canterino pushing for a spot has been a big disappointment. Bundy/Archer have been fine as the 4/5 starters, I just wish that better options had made them expendable.

I don't think the Twins expected to have both of them starting every 5th game all year. They thought they had 2 guys for basically 1 5th starter spot. Paddack, Winder and/or Ober were supposed to take the #3 and #4 spots. They both got hurt and these guys are the depth options we though they might be. It's a good thing they're around with the injuries and Smeltzer pitching like, well, like Smeltzer. 

Bottom line, good thing we have them this year. We got value for their contracts and it was a good thing we signed them.  Turns out we needed them (and maybe more depending on how long Mahle is now out). Having said all that,  let' s hope we don't need more than 1 of them next year. 

[Karbo]

The biggest fault is the fact the bullpen was poorly constructed. If 40% of your starting staff Has a hard time getting through 5IP, you gotta have a couple reliable relievers that can give you multiple innings in relief. Most of this year they have been full of 1 inning arms in the pen. With being allowed 8 relievers this year that means in a best case they are pitching every other day. How many relievers can give you 75-80 outings in a season?

[elephanthater]

No value given the way they were used.  Maybe if they were paired together from the beginning and expected to give us a combined 6-7 innings.  But what really happened is even when they pitched well it was only 4-5 innings and they stressed an already poor bullpen.