Jump to content
Twins Daily
  • Create Account

Twins Giving Pagan a Leash to Hang Their Season


Recommended Posts

35 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

David Ortiz would like a word with you about hitting behind the runner....

And, sacrifice bunts are a terrible idea before the 8th inning. Terrible. 

Late in a tie game, or down by 1? I guarantee you David Ortiz would be trying to pull the ball and hit behind the runner.

Agree on sac bunts, although again, late in a close game things may change. 

That's not really about Pagan, I guess. Sorry. 

Terrible trade, I suspect he's back next year too.

I have a hard time blaming Rocco too much for Pagan. He didn't make that trade, and every reliever is going to pitch in close games. No way around it, even IF the Twins hadn't decided to limit starters exposure.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

First, he did not blow a save over the weekend, he did take the loss in his second inning of extra innings because Lopez blew the save putting it to extra innings.  He has blown a lot of saves, and giving up way too many HR to pitch in high leverage situations right now.  However, he still has good stuff overall and I would not look to DFA him, just keep his high leverage situations to a minimum. 

You point out WPA, and the guy we traded away has a lower WPA with a -0.9 to Pagan is -0.7.  Lopez our new closer has -0.5 for us so far, very small sample with us, but he has blown 2 saves for us in 4 chances.  I like the WPA stat because it takes leverage into account.  Pagan has been taken out of high leverage for awhile now, but over the weekend he had to go out in the extra innings for 2 innings because we burned through our high leverage guys that blew the save. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Pagan should have been DFA with Duffey and Smith. I don't understand why Moran is not in the pen. It doesn't make sense having only one lefty to go to. The FO seems to be responsible for a lot of bad choices. Just look at the Dobnak signing, 10 million really. This team finally played baseball last night, Kepler took what the Royals give him. Then you go to Lopez and he tried his best to give the game away. He now 50% in saves and can you trust he will be able to get the job done.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

That's why part of the difference between managers is the talent they have at their disposal. There's no manager in the history of baseball that carried an untalented team to great success. They just don't have that kind of influence on wins and losses. Especially wins. But that 2019 also had the 9th best ERA in all of baseball while their relievers pitched the 20th fewest innings, and the the starters threw the 6th most. People tend to act like Rocco/the FO has some hard and fast rule about starters going deep in games. The 2019 team had better starters, and hadn't had a pandemic shortened season, so they were allowed to go deeper. People tend to act like the HR record covered for Rocco despite that being a quite complete team until Pineda cheated and injuries hit late so they went into the playoffs with far less then their A team out there.

I'm not a huge Rocco fan. I don't think he's great and I wouldn't be broken up about it if he was fired (other than it's never a happy thing to me when someone loses their job). Sac bunts are very rarely the smart play and it's why the league as a whole doesn't use them very often anymore. The math says it only makes sense in certain situations. I'd like to see Rocco put some hit and runs on with certain guys at the plate, but they also have a lot of dudes who swing and miss A TON and you're just giving away outs when they swing through it and the guy is toast at 2nd. Who on this team should be stealing a ton of bases outside of Buxton who has been battling a bad knee all year? They're not exactly full of speedsters. That's not on Rocco. He can't make the roster he's given faster.

At some point it just becomes a no win situation for a manager, though. Rocco can't just never pitch Pagan. You can't afford to just completely waste a spot on your roster like that. Like I said, I don't love Rocco, and don't think he's done a great job, but he's also only able to use the guys he's given. If he's part of the decision making to keep Pagan on the roster because he wants to use him that's 1 thing, but if he's just using what he's given I can't blame him too much for using all 26 guys on the roster.

I agree on all except the Rocco hard and fast rule. He is almost 100% committed to not letting his starters see the order a 3rd time. It has cost us games. I agree with the talent part but every one of these guys has some kind of talent and can get hot. A starter sitting at 5 shutout innings with 2 hits and about 65 pitches should at least get a shot to start the next one, I don't care if the guy has a track record or is a rookie, save your pen and give them a shot.

Pagan should have been DFA'd long ago, but for certain after that HR in Anaheim. Here is the real killer though. He NEEDS to be gone just to save Rocco from himself. Otherwise, as long as he can go out 1 out of 3 times and have a clean inning or strike 1-2 batters out, Rocco will keep running him out there and he will keep losing us games. 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Pagan: a true 3 outcome pitcher. It's like watching little league. Walk. K. Walk walk. K. Homer.

His problem is he can't throw strikes. The whiff rate is because he can't throw strikes. He can't throw strikes because his stuff isn't good enough. 

That said why is Rocco allergic to using Duran as closer? Hasn't he earned it?

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Battle ur tail off said:

I agree on all except the Rocco hard and fast rule. He is almost 100% committed to not letting his starters see the order a 3rd time. It has cost us games. I agree with the talent part but every one of these guys has some kind of talent and can get hot. A starter sitting at 5 shutout innings with 2 hits and about 65 pitches should at least get a shot to start the next one, I don't care if the guy has a track record or is a rookie, save your pen and give them a shot.

Pagan should have been DFA'd long ago, but for certain after that HR is Anaheim. Here is the real killer though. He NEEDS to be gone just to save Rocco from himself. Otherwise, as long as he can go out 1 out of 3 times and have a clean inning or strike 1-2 batters out, Rocco will keep running him out there and he will keep losing us games. 

 

I mean it's provably false that Rocco has that hard and fast rule. 3 of Ryan's first 4 starts this very season he went 6 or 7 innings. He's been awful since his COVID IL stint and now he's being treated like the average to slightly below average starter he is right now. Sonny Gray went 6, 7, 6 innings before his first IL stint this year. Mahle has gone 6 innings in both of his starts with the Twins. Even when he gave up 3 bombs in his first start. No, Bundy, Archer, Smeltzer types aren't seeing the lineup a 3rd time in a close game. There have been a few times where I thought he should've let a guy go another inning, but it's most certainly not a hard and fast rule for every starter the Twins have. And, as I pointed out before, that 2019 rotation had the 6th most innings pitched in all of baseball. If his rule was strictly "no starter sees the order a 3rd time" they simply couldn't have had the 6th most starter innings in baseball.

I agree Pagan should've been DFA'd long ago, but, again, Rocco isn't to be blamed for using the guys on his roster. He simply can't go out there and never use Pagan. It's not reasonable. He needs to use every guy on his roster, so as long as Pagan is on there he's going to have to pitch some. If Duran and Lopez held the lead in Anaheim Pagan never even sees the field to give up that HR. So suggesting Rocco needed to be saved from using him after already having used his big guns who blew the lead seems like some revisionist history.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

There is no reason he should be on a contender's roster. I've lost faith in the front office over this, frankly. 

Of the games he's lost or blown (6 I think, and counting), even a league average reliever gets out of what, charitably....four of them? Twins should be up two on Cleveland right now instead of the other way around.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

"Both Pagan’s xFIP and xERA are far better than the results have bore out thus far, but the caveat to expected stats is that they don’t matter until they’re actualized."

Unless we're operating under the delusion Pagan has been "unlucky," with HRs for nearly 2 seasons now, his xFIP isn't all that relevant. Disagree as far as expected stats are concerned. Fix the pipe while it's dripping; don't wait for it to burst...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 hours ago, USAFChief said:

Late in a tie game, or down by 1? I guarantee you David Ortiz would be trying to pull the ball and hit behind the runner.

Agree on sac bunts, although again, late in a close game things may change. 

That's not really about Pagan, I guess. Sorry. 

Terrible trade, I suspect he's back next year too.

I have a hard time blaming Rocco too much for Pagan. He didn't make that trade, and every reliever is going to pitch in close games. No way around it, even IF the Twins hadn't decided to limit starters exposure.

Let's hope not, although it'd be entertaining to see the gaslighting necessary to convince a fanbase that next season won't be his 4th trash year in a row. Similar to Colome last season, there's literally no amount of production that'll justify bringing him back. The damage has already been done. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 hours ago, LastOnePicked said:

Colome, Pagan and soon Lopez. Sooner or later, we need to realize that the common denominator is probably the MN Twins. I don't know what the issue is, but when a Twins pitcher gets the "yips," they never recover here. Coaching HAS to be a part of this.

It's Pagan, yes, but it's bigger than Pagan. This team just cannot hold the line or rise to a challenge, either in late innings or against top teams. I thought that was starting to change in Spring, but I was very wrong. Same garbage, different year.

I believe the Twins lack of success is due in part to their minor league system.  The Twins were notorious for always developing outstanding hitters in the 60's thru the 80"s, i.e. Oliva, Carew, Killebrew, Bostock.  The minor league emphasized the basics.  The Twins played the game soundly.  Players promoted to the show, had the basics down. Throwing to the cut off man, bunting, taking the extra base, etc were all part of the Twins' game.  Now it's home run derby and a prayer that our pitchers aren't as bad as the opposition.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I would rather see keep ands or add anotehr long man in Smeltzer or Sanchez for now. At some point Moran has to come back. 

Are the Twins competing or not? They finally got a guy who looks comfortable closing in Lopez.

Soon they will have to decide about the worth of Bundy and Archer or the future of Ober, Winder or Maeda.

Don't hang onto guys like Pagan just because he might be tradable in the off-season. Or to justify a bad trade.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

21 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

David Ortiz would like a word with you about hitting behind the runner....

And, sacrifice bunts are a terrible idea before the 8th inning. Terrible. 

Of course not all guys have enough bat control to H&R or hit behind runners. IMO there are enough guys on this team that should be able to, especially some of the "lighter" hitters, when the situation calls for it. How many times lately have they had a runner on 2nd with no outs yet haven't scored?  Sac bunts can be used in some situations as ways to gain an extra base, especially in later innings. Did you know the late great Harmon Killebrew even practiced bunting each spring? It was great to see Leon use the squeeze. If the reputation is gained, IMO that will cause a change in the defense, which could lead to more hits.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Aaron Gleeman posted a lengthy story on this topic in the Athletic on Monday (“Twins’ blind spot with Pagan may cost them a playoff spot”).  Here is one sample paragraph:
 

Pagán has a 3.93 ERA in 287 appearances, including marks of 5.23, 4.83 and 4.50 the past three seasons. He’s posted an ERA better than league average just once in the past five years. His lifetime rate of 1.8 homers allowed per nine innings is the highest in baseball history for a reliever. And it’s rising. Pagán has allowed 18 homers in his last 52 innings, a staggering 3.2 per nine frames.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

16 hours ago, RickOShea said:

I believe the Twins lack of success is due in part to their minor league system.  The Twins were notorious for always developing outstanding hitters in the 60's thru the 80"s, i.e. Oliva, Carew, Killebrew, Bostock.  The minor league emphasized the basics.  The Twins played the game soundly.  Players promoted to the show, had the basics down. Throwing to the cut off man, bunting, taking the extra base, etc were all part of the Twins' game.  Now it's home run derby and a prayer that our pitchers aren't as bad as the opposition.

Obviously TK and his crew did a good job with making sure the Twins were fundamentally sound. I agree though, the game has turned into either strikeout or hit a HR. 

I don't think that is something that is inclusive to the Twins though. It is taught at every level in both baseball and softball. Maximize your connection/power with a HLP swing. Never mind the fact that this can lead to lots of K's. Contact hitting is a thing of the past and that ranges from MLB all the way down to 12u.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
The Twins Daily Caretaker Fund
The Twins Daily Caretaker Fund

You all care about this site. The next step is caring for it. We’re asking you to caretake this site so it can remain the premier Twins community on the internet.

×
×
  • Create New...