Ranking the Twins Most Needed IL Players

[Cody Pirkl]

The Twins Injured List continues to grow as the season rolls on as they’re now missing several important contributors who hopefully haven’t made their last marks on this 2022 Twins team. Some absences however weigh a bit heavier than others.

It seems like there’s a new player added to the Injured List every other day as the Twins have found themselves filling out the daily lineup card with players we never imagined they’d be relying on. Outfield, catcher, pitchers of all roles, there’s nowhere the Twins haven’t felt the sting of injury. For them to get back on the right track, I’ve ranked the top 3 players in order of importance to how the Twins may wind up finishing their season.

3. Trevor Larnach
Larnach last played at the end of June before undergoing core muscle surgery that turned out to be the likely source of his struggles before hitting the IL. Before being limited by injury, Larnach was a solid contributor to the Twins in multiple ways. The slugging left-hander was about league average in March and April before exploding to the tune of a .333/.431/.646 line in May. He also graded out well in every defensive metric, as what he lacked in outfield range, he made up for in sure-handedness and an arm that had bullied teams out of trying for extra bases.

What was originally a six-week timetable appears to have been pushed back to closer to 10 weeks with little updates along the way. The Twins are hoping Larnach can be back in early September for the stretch run which would be huge for the lineup. Any kind of return to form would result in Larnach taking playing time away from players such as Jake Cave and Tim Beckham. Larnach should also slot into the top 4-5 spots in the lineup with his patient approach and bat capable of some much-needed fireworks. He’s been lefty-proof in his career thus far, actually hitting southpaws better than righties which makes him an everyday player if Kyle Garlick doesn’t make his return this season.

2. Ryan Jeffers
Many complained about Jeffers’ bat, myself included, for much of the season. While he hasn’t lit the world on fire, it’s hard to deny that Jeffers has a superior glove to Gary Sanchez who’s played far too often since Jeffers went down. The former Yankee, a bat-first catcher, has given us a newfound appreciation for Jeffers’ modest offensive skills since he’s become the everyday catcher. Sanchez was 24% below the league average hitter in June, and a Drew Butera-esque 59% below in July. Not only is his defense not up to Jeffers’ standards, but the Twins have basically been giving away 3-4 free outs per game to their opponents from the catcher’s spot for over a month.

Sandy Leon has begun eating into Gary’s playing time as he can at least provide stellar work behind the plate, but the Twins certainly would benefit from Jeffers return sooner rather than later. The floor of his framing work behind the plate and occasional hot streak sounds far superior to the current setup. It’s hopeful Jeffers returns towards the end of August and certainly for the stretch run in September.

1. Bailey Ober
The Twins had a fantastic trade deadline, there’s no disputing that. They had a significant amount of needs and addressed the most important ones in a market that many teams called difficult. One more filler-type starting pitcher certainly wouldn’t have hurt, however. The Twins are in an interesting spot with the rotation. Joe Ryan has begun to surpass previous career highs in innings pitched. It’s hard to expect more than four innings pitched from Bundy and Archer every time out, and there’s little to no help on the way in the minors aside from Devin Smeltzer. A lot will hinge not only on the rotation staying healthy, but on the duo of Bundy and Archer occasionally providing starts that give the Twins a chance to win, which is no sure thing.

Having Ober back even under the premise that he’s a solid #4 starter would be a game changer for a Twins rotation that lacks any kind of depth. It’s unclear what Ober’s timeline is, but we’ve been told we can expect him back this season still at this point. Hopefully good news starts to emerge sooner rather than later, as the Twins could surely use one of their lone bright spots from the 2021 rotation.

Admittedly this list is plenty interchangeable and there are several options not even listed here. Let's be honest, we have plenty of injured players to choose from! Do you agree with the order of the list? Do you think someone not listed here deserves to be at the top? Let us know below.

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[mikelink45]

I like your essay, but I want Buxton off the injury bench!

How is Leon doing - does he fill Jeffers spot?

Gordon and Celestino are holding the OF together, but Larnach back and Kepler to the bench would be my desire.

[Mark G]

A question:  Is it only players who could be back this season that are considered?  If you are out for the season you are not?  If it is all players, I would rank a healthy Kirilloff ahead of all 3 with the possible exception (it could go either way) of Ober.  OF and 1st base and a solid hitter when healthy.  If out for the season doesn't count, I would concur with your list.

[TopGunn#22]

Kirilloff and Lewis certainly rank at the top.  For the rest of THIS season, it's Larnach for sure and for me Winder.  I like Ober, but like Winder better.  I'd take either ASAP but get me some Josh Winder soon.

[Whitey333]

Nice article.  I pretty much agree.  I'm not quite sure about Ober.  I would like Winder back first and performing well.  

[MGM4706]

Wow. Ober is only one you are close to accurate on. Jeffers was an automatic out at the plate and teams run at will on him. Sanchez has more putouts since playing more, than Jeffers all year  Larnach has been figured out like Sano. He can't hit Curves or Sliders. In the outfield he has limited range and without Buxton covering for him is a liability. Plus he has no clue how to play an outfield wall like the rest of the young Twins outfielders!

[wabene]

@MGM4706 333/.431/.646

[Stew]

The one people are forgetting about is Maeda. They think he will be back in September. He is a veteran at this pointt. And did a great job out of the bullpen for the dodgers.

[Blyleven2011]

I'm not sure about jeffers  ,,,

I like the defense of Leon  ,,, I'll take a good blocker first over a good pitch framer  ,,,,, 

I'm tired of seeing passed balls and wild pitches and than the runner scores from third , to much of that happening  in the league these days  ,,,

Block the ball  ,,,, Ferguson Jenkins threw the first pitch of field of dreams game  to Johnny bench  , he bounced the pitch and Johnny did not bobble it ,,,,  classic moment  ....

[Eris]

What does giving away 3-4 outs/game from a catcher include. Does this include pitch calling. I  find this hard to comprehend.  It is like having an error every other inning that doesn’t show up in the box score.   I know what giving away 4 outs / game at first base entails. 

[roger]

Great update in this morning’s Strib.

Larnach is in Fort Myers, working out every day…hitting, throwing, running straight, defensive work and direction-change drills.

Maeda (30 pitches) and Ober (25) both threw bullpen sessions Friday.  Ober threw all his pitches while Maeda concentrated on his slider.  Maeda has his next bullpen scheduled Monday, Ober Tuesday.

Sounds to me all three are on track for rehab stints beginning at Fort Myers the last week of August.  Barring setbacks, all three could join the Saints around Labor Day and back with the Twins around September 15. 

 

[DJL44]

44 minutes ago, MGM4706 said:

Jeffers was an automatic out at the plate and teams run at will on him. 

Jeffers has allowed 3 more stolen bases than league average.

[Reptevia]

My top 3: Buxton, Correa and Polanco. All have been terrible since AS break.  They MUST be hurt?   Kepler doesn’t have a hit since returning from IL. 0-23 I think. 

[adjacent]

Only for this series, but we could have use Garlick. 3 lefties in a row...

[Richie the Rally Goat]

1 hour ago, MGM4706 said:

Wow. Ober is only one you are close to accurate on. Jeffers was an automatic out at the plate and teams run at will on him. Sanchez has more putouts since playing more, than Jeffers all year  Larnach has been figured out like Sano. He can't hit Curves or Sliders. In the outfield he has limited range and without Buxton covering for him is a liability. Plus he has no clue how to play an outfield wall like the rest of the young Twins outfielders!

I disagree with this entirely.

1) Jeffers - while not a great hitter, Sanchez hasn’t been since going into the lead role. Sanchez is fine as a platoon guy, but he’s not as good of a hitter to overcome his receiving skills. Outs are outs, and I’ll take put-outs… but value to the team, receiving is way more valuable than throwing as a catching skill. There is on average one successful stolen base per game, league wide, over the course of the season. There are 100 plus pitches thrown per game per team. Getting a higher number of strikes called, fewer passed balls, the frequency is 30:2. Yeah, ideally you’d have a catcher who can do both, but receiving is way more valuable.

2) Larnach rips the cover off the ball @wabene called it out. Additionally, Larnach may not have a ton of range, he makes the sound play. He catches what he gets to, without doing many the risky plays that let the roller bounce around in the corner.

As to the OP, I would add a 4th, Jorge Alcala. The pen is MUCH improved, but another shut down reliever would go a long ways towards keeping close games close. The starters are not going to magically become 1990s era workhorses, the bullpen has to be a modern deep flame throwing shut down pen.

[roger]

34 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Jeffers has allowed 3 more stolen bases than league average.

I don’t know what your comment means DJL44?  I do know that I saw him throw out his first runner, and that was well into the season.  I believe he was something like 0 of 17, or something like that.  And that runner was actually safe, but tagged out when he slid over the bag.  So to my old eyes, he is not good in controlling the running game.

[Thebigalguy]

Kepler is clearly struggling since his return. He's not hitting with a fractured toe the way he did before the injury, though a few of his outs have been hard hit balls. The season in September will involve lots of games with the Guardians and Sox and will decide whether we make the postseason. And Correa's slump? He's not injured, is he? Of the fearsome A B C, it's only A who comes through on an everyday basis, along with a few other younger players. This is a strange season, is what I'm saying, and injuries are only part of it at the plate. (I almost think it would have made more sense to put Buxton on the IL for two weeks than try 'managing' his bad knee.) On the mound, having Ober, Winder, and Maeda back could be big. Time will tell, as it always does.

[USAFChief]

I'd take Larnach. The Twins OF is pretty bad. We had the rusting hulk of Tim Beckham in LF and at DH, ferpetesake. Cave. Celestino. Gordon.

After that I'd probably take Jeffers, and I don't even like Jeffers.

Then Winder or Ober. Get one of Archer or Bundy (cougharchercough) out of the rotation. 

[Mike Sixel]

I'd go Larnach, given what the OF looks like some days 

Then Ober. Though I'd consider Maeda instead if he could start. 

Then Jeffers. I really don't think people her compare gin to other catchers.....

If we can go to guys that won't be back this year, Lewis would be next, as he can play SS and OF.

[mnfireman]

Agree with Larnach, Ober and Jeffers, but looking at who's on the IL right now, it is amazing the team has remained in contention at all:

Jeffers, Kirilloff, Larnach - Expected starting position players 

Sano, Garlick - Expected bench contributors

Ober, Paddack, Dobnak - Expected starting rotation

Stashak, Coulombe, Alcala, Romero - Bullpen arms

Maeda, Lewis - September reinforcements

Buxton, Kepler - Walking wounded

Correa (120 OPS+) and Polanco (118 OPS+) are not underperforming, they just seem to fail in big spots when the team needs them.

[dxpavelka]

Sano will contribute in the post-season.  Laugh.  I don't care.  Baseball's a funny game.  Stuff happens every October that nobody saw coming.  You heard it hear first.

[puckstopper1]

What about Sano???    ???

[DocBauer]

Not a bad list but Winder OR Ober would work for the pitching side, for me.

But Garlick is a huge miss right now. Even with Larnach back, we could really use his RH bat against LHP, something we are strangely dominated by. We're too LH heavy in the OF, and despite his HR against the Angels, Celestino isn't exactly an ideal "platoon" partner with Gordon or Cave. 

 

[mnfireman]

38 minutes ago, DocBauer said:

Not a bad list but Winder OR Ober would work for the pitching side, for me.

 

 

Totally forgot about Winder...

[JD-TWINS]

1) Maeda, Maeda, & Maeda …….experienced reliever for those tough 1 1/3 middle innings!! Playoff tough from Dodger years, former high leverage reliever, & leader on TWINS staff. Maeda or Jax to get 4 outs in a tough spot??? Point made.

2) Larnach if he can get a month in prior to playoffs. Need more pop from our bench than Celistino & Beckham.

3) WINDER. Not sure why the affinity for Ober other than just no confidence in Bundy. Understood. But if it’s just because he’s tall, Winder is more solid in 2022!!! 3.77 ERA vs. plus 4.00 for Ober but Winder has started 9 games, some in every month until August. Ober started 7 games and threw a total of 33.67 innings…..another Bundy/Archer inning eater. Winder can spot start or help from the pen.

STAFF changes by Sept. 1 for playoff eligibility:

Winder for Bundy

Moran for Pagan (Pagan & Bundy are not the answer, period.)

Smelzer for Megill (Length & experience)

Maeda for Sands

Maeda & Smelzer bring REAL depth and capabilities to get more than 3 outs in the middle of a game. 

HUGE IMPROVEMENTS if they are healthy.

[JD-TWINS]

Changes to STAFF with Smelzer, Maeda, Winder, & Moran make Jax our last option & he was #2 or #3 out of the pen a month ago.

Pagan - 5.13 ERA……..Bundy 5.01 ERA & these are 2 guys we’ve been leaning on all year.

Moran - 1.93 ERA ……….Smeltzer 4.02 ERA…..seems straight forward!!

[JD-TWINS]

Anyone know how much the Rosters can expand in September now? I’m used to endless bench in September and I know that has changed - any Roster expansion in 2022?

[DJL44]

2 hours ago, roger said:

I don’t know what your comment means DJL44?  I do know that I saw him throw out his first runner, and that was well into the season.  I believe he was something like 0 of 17, or something like that.  And that runner was actually safe, but tagged out when he slid over the bag.  So to my old eyes, he is not good in controlling the running game.

He's throwing out 17% of baserunners but league average is 25%. If his CS% was league average he would have thrown out 3 additional baserunners.

The league itself does a pretty good job limiting base stealing. Success rates while stealing have gone up since the 1980s but attempts are WAY down. Nobody attempts to steal unless they think they have an 80% chance of success. 

Minnesota is exactly league average in stolen bases allowed by opponents with 0.5 stolen bases allowed per game

MLB Stats - MLB Team Opponent Stolen Bases per Game | TeamRankings.com

The Yankees lead with 0.3 stolen bases allowed per game and the Reds are the worst with 0.7. So, no it isn't possible that "teams run at will" on Ryan Jeffers. He doesn't throw that many out but teams are only sending their best base stealers against him.

[mnfireman]

Have not seen anything about Winder starting BP sessions or rehab assignment, but he was already with St. Paul and is on their IL so information may not be as readily available.

Feel free to correct me if anybody has any info. Thanks.

[DJL44]

11 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

The Yankees lead with 0.3 stolen bases allowed per game 

Jose Trevino should get serious consideration for the Gold Glove.