Does it Matter How the Twins Reach the Postseason?

[Ted Schwerzler]

The Minnesota Twins were granted an off day after the Toronto Blue Jays were gifted a win on a controversial play. They parlayed that into an absolute drubbing at the hands of the Los Angeles Dodgers. While that’s understandable going on the road against the best team in baseball, the reactions warrant the question, “Does it really matter how Minnesota gets in?”

 

 

Maybe this is a spoiler alert, but the answer should be “absolutely not!” The pinnacle of the sport is obviously a World Series, but to place that as the goal each season would be suggesting anything but an outcome afforded to one of thirty teams as a failure. Minnesota’s front office put a strong step forward at the trade deadline and to the club both for now and the future. In doing so, they’re still lightyears behind a Dodgers roster that has already surpassed 70 wins.

Would it have been better to hang onto prospects and simply play for next year? Maybe Spencer Steer plays above his head and becomes the next Nolan Arenado. Maybe Cade Povich reaches the 200th percentile expectation and is the next Max Scherzer. None of that is likely, but it’s arguably as silly as worry about style points.

It’s not the Twins fault that they play in the AL Central. Currently, the division is expected to be won by a team with somewhere around 84 victories. That’s just two above a .500 mark, and well below what the New York Yankees of the world will finish at. The Chicago White Sox and Cleveland Guardians continue to jockey for position alongside Minnesota, although no one has wanted to take a stranglehold on the lead.

Minnesota isn’t alone in this pursuit. Both the Milwaukee Brewers and St. Louis Cardinals find themselves in similar scenarios within the NL Central. That division has three of the worst teams in baseball however, a run down even from the American League counterpart. Frustrations certainly reign for both of those clubs as well, but the focus is on making it to October.

At no point in their future history will the Twins be seen as a World Series favorite. They can be a team that contends for one though, and half the battle in doing so is making the tournament. The 2021 Atlanta Braves won the World Series coming off a season in which they finished with just 88 regular season wins. They then went 11-5 in the Postseason, winning three consecutive series, and grabbing their ring. Better teams existed, but they were the one that got it done.

Ultimately what happens against the Dodgers on a random weeknight holds little weight when it comes to a final resting place. You don’t need to play the game in order to be aware New York, Los Angeles, or any host of other clubs have a better roster than the Twins. The games are played though, because on any given night, a different outcome can take place.

Rocco Baldelli’s club faces the Cleveland Guardians and Chicago White Sox a combined 17 times after September 1. We still have a few weeks left in August for teams to jockey for position, but nothing is going to be decided until next month anyway. Evaluating games daily makes sense from a performance perspective. Suggesting each one is reflective of eventual outcomes when viewed through a vacuum isn’t a worthwhile practice.

The Twins need to get Trevor Larnach, Kenta Maeda, Josh Winder, and Bailey Ober back. They need to continue to gel and have Tyler Mahle look like an ace with Sonny Gray following behind him. They need the lineup to work consistently with Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton leading them.

Over the duration of the next few weeks, Minnesota’s goal should be to stack wins, same as any other period. The reality though, is that there are no style points to reaching the Postseason. Get there. Get it done. That’s the message sent by the front office when they added at the deadline.

 

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[operation mindcrime]

No!

[Dantes929]

No.   Tons of teams have gotten hot and surprised people in October.    Besides which if they get into the playoffs they will by default have achieved my minimum goal for an enjoyable season which is to be playing meaningful games through September.

[bean5302]

I'm not actually sure what the intent of this article is? Does it matter how the Twins get into the postseason? Yes. A huge, huge yes.

As a Wildcard team, they'll have no bye week and they won't have home field advantage.
As a division winner, lets be honest, they won't get a bye week because the Astros and Yankees are 14 games up from the Twins and it's inconceivable the Twins could close that gap, but the Twins would play the WORST Wildcard team. By the way, that's the Mariners right now with the Orioles 1/2 game back. Or the Twins could play the best Wildcard team. As of today? Blue Jays. Who would you rather play? Blue Jays on the road or Mariners/Orioles at home? Yeah. That's what I thought.

Side note, as of today, the Twins wouldn't make the playoffs at all.

Kind of reminds me of a Minnesota Swarm game I attended many years ago. The crowd was going to get free "Chips and Guac" from Chipotle if the Swarm won... but as the game went on and the Swarm fell further and further behind it was if the Swarm tied. Then it was if the Swarm lost by less than 3. Kind of a moving target thing.

I think it's good to remain optimistic, even if I don't come across that way when I post. By the way... ancient history spoiler alert? The Swarm whooped their opponent with an epic comeback to the cheers of "Chips and Guac!!!!" from the fans every time a goal was scored.
 

[Reptevia]

Irrelevant question. There’s only one way they make it-win the division. VERY likely Maeda, Ober, Winder and Larnach don’t contribute at all the rest of the year. It’s looking more likely Buxton may be heading towards a season ending IL stint than more production. Correa is trending the wrong way. Is he hurt?  Let’s see how they do against the Angels this weekend. They’ve been described as “a terrible team” by several on these pages. That still may be significantly better than the best of the worst. (A title the Twins have yet to secure). 

[Ted Schwerzler]

14 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

I'm not actually sure what the intent of this article is? Does it matter how the Twins get into the postseason? Yes. A huge, huge yes.
 

You're not sure of the point and then immediately miss the point? It doesn't matter at all how you get it, but that you do. It doesn't matter whether you're in or out on August 10th either. They can't win or lose the division right now.

The point is to stop acting like the sky is falling based on a single night's results at a time. They have 17 games with the top of their own division next month. That matters. 81 wins or 91 wins, it doesn't matter as long as they win enough to get in.

[Ted Schwerzler]

5 minutes ago, Reptevia said:

Irrelevant question. There’s only one way they make it-win the division. VERY likely Maeda, Ober, Winder and Larnach don’t contribute at all the rest of the year.

Winning the division is likely going to require something like 84 games. Acting like they can't do that because of a bad loss or being bludgeoned by the Dodgers doesn't make any sense. Also, all of those names you mentioned are on track to return next month.

[bean5302]

2 minutes ago, Ted Schwerzler said:

You're not sure of the point and then immediately miss the point? It doesn't matter at all how you get it, but that you do. It doesn't matter whether you're in or out on August 10th either. They can't win or lose the division right now.

The point is to stop acting like the sky is falling based on a single night's results at a time. They have 17 games with the top of their own division next month. That matters. 81 wins or 91 wins, it doesn't matter as long as they win enough to get in.

Yes. It matters. Blue Jays at Rogers Center or Mariners at Target Field. If that doesn't matter to you, then I guess you don't care if the Twins win.

It's also not based on 1 game. It's based on the Twins slowly giving up ground, then being passed based on overall play since the end of May. 

[Reptevia]

Last I heard, Ober and Winder were just starting to throw off the mound this week. That puts them at least 2-3 weeks out barring set backs. Maeda is the closest, but is coming off TJ, so how much can we expect?  Larnach:  “Baldelli didn't give out many specifics, so it's not clear if Larnach has resumed baseball activities or will go on a rehab assignment soon. Before being placed on the IL, Larnach had been serving as a regular starter in left field and was slashing .231/.306/.406 with five home runs “. That does not sound like due back… anytime?  I know that .231 BA and .406 OPS can probably carry us to the playoffs all by itself, but it is not at all clear we can count on him saving the stretch run. 

[RpR]

Whether or not they make the post season is not so important to me but what does mean a lot is how they do against some top teams.

If they lost the series to the Royals or Tigers would not bother me IF they split or win the series against Dodger and Yankees.

How they do against those teams, mean more to me that losing to division rivals.

[KnoblauchWasFramed]

1 hour ago, Dantes929 said:

No.   Tons of teams have gotten hot and surprised people in October.    Besides which if they get into the playoffs they will by default have achieved my minimum goal for an enjoyable season which is to be playing meaningful games through September.

"...if they get into the playoffs they will by default have achieved my minimum goal"  Perfect definition of a Twins fan.  Happy to just have the Twins show up to a playoff game or two and wave to the crowd and then run through the motions of being a practice squad to a playoff team that is actually there with the intention and belief that they can and will win.

That kind of thinking is why the Pohlads are able to put an inferior product on the field year after year and accidentally fail upwards and somehow back door into the playoffs and Twins fans can't be more elated.  Twins fans don't demand a return on our paid investment into a new stadium.

[adjacent]

The question right now is, will they make it? They have to win the division, probably at least 2 teams form the east (or west) will have a better record than any of the central teams. Luckily we have only 8 more games with the reign of terror (Dodgers, Yankees and Houston). After that is is only within the division or teams under 500. We should beat those teams, or well, we don't deserve to be there. 

[darin617]

One and done in playoffs!!!

It's a Minnesota tradition.

[rwilfong86]

They’ll miss the playoffs.

[LA VIkes Fan]

I think the point is not to panic just because we've been caught by Cleveland or got blown out by the Dodgers. I live in LA and the Dodgers have now won 9 in a row by a combined score of 62-13. They are stacked. Losing to the Dodgers is no shame. Ask the Padres. The Dodgers blew them out 3 times a row. Closest score was 4-0. 

The fact we've lost ground in the Division is a little more concerning, We've essentially been a .500 team since late May. We haven't really clicked on all cylinders for awhile. I still think winning the division is the best and probably the only way in and that will only happen if we do and go on a .600ish kind of long term streak. Frankly we didn't really have the pitching to pull that kind of streak off before. I think we may have have that kind of pitching now. The schedule eases after tonight and really eases up after 9/10.  I think we'll find out soon enough if this group can pull things together. 

 

[Aggies7]

This team would continue the long string of postseason embarrassments regardless of how they qualify. The mariners would sweep us and at this point we’d probably lose to the orioles too if they somehow got in. Classic twins 

[MMMordabito]

2-10 against Dodgers, Padres, Yankees and Astros. It wasn't just one game. It will be 2-11 sometime after midnight tomorrow.

[Doctor Gast]

My thoughts too, Ted. It doesn't matter how we get there it's that we get there. We have a great team but we are still working things out. When we get things worked out & gel, that's what matters when we face great teams in post season.

[Linus]

Yea I think nobody cares how we get in but they do care that we’ve been leaking oil for two months. Can they snap out of it and win the division?  Sure. Can they keep playing the way they have the last two months and win the division?  Highly doubtful.  

[twins_89]

At this point, my guess would be that the Twins have 50/50 odds of making the playoffs. I'd rate the Twins as being roughly on par with the Blue Jays, Mariners, Orioles, Rays, Guardians, and White Sox. I view any 3-game playoff series against those teams as a toss-up.

Unfortunately, when it comes to the top teams (Yankees, Astros, Dodgers, and Mets), I think the most likely outcome is the Twins getting swept (with a best case of winning 1 game in a series). To date during the regular season against the Yankees/Astros/Mets, the Twins are 1-8 with the majority of the losses being crushing blowouts.

[mikelink45]

Of course it matters.  Getting in and losing is not a goal.  I remember when Gardy had that good string of teams and the consensus of comments was that we wanted more than just getting in and getting beaten. Sorry, but stumbling to the finish line is not what I want.  I want a hot streak.  I want us to look at the Guardians and White Sox and then leave them in the dust.  I want the other teams to want to avoid us because we are playing the best ball in the league.  Has anyone enjoyed seeing the Twins set a world record for playoff losses? 

[USAFChief]

[KirbyDome89]

10 hours ago, Ted Schwerzler said:

You're not sure of the point and then immediately miss the point? It doesn't matter at all how you get it, but that you do. It doesn't matter whether you're in or out on August 10th either. They can't win or lose the division right now.

The point is to stop acting like the sky is falling based on a single night's results at a time. They have 17 games with the top of their own division next month. That matters. 81 wins or 91 wins, it doesn't matter as long as they win enough to get in.

First it was get fat during that 2 week stretch against KC and DET in late May & early June, then it was 8 games against Cleveland in 10 days to provide separation in late June, next it was get to the AS break and rest, and finally it settled on the trade deadline a few weeks back. Now we're moving the goalposts into September? 

[3balls2strikes]

Have you watched this team for the past 2+ months attempt to play baseball? This bunch of pampered powder-puff players & their limp noodle manager will not make the playoffs in 2022. So the headline of the article is moot. I never dreamed I'd miss Gardenhire & Molitor, but here I am, admitting it. There's no fire, no motivation, no inspiration, no instinct & no playing the hot hand. Just bland, boring, basic number crunching that takes being human out of baseball and leaves a remnant of automated, oft-injured bipeds devoid of heart & soul. 

[I wish the twins were good]

They won't be there, nothing to worry about!

[Whitey333]

Everytime we get upset about the Twins play people tell us one game doesn't matter.  I understand the philosophy but if one game doesn't matter why play it?  I know that's a silly comment.  But so to is the comments about losing games doesn't matter.  This team has been floundering for over two months.  They have been riding a very hot streak in may to try and stay on top.  I hope they win the division but this team has so many flaws.  Where's Buxton?  Injured as always.   Where's Correa?  He must be busy counting his money because he hasn't shown up at the ball park for six weeks.  Where's our manager?  Oh that's right we don't have one.  

[Little Piranhas]

Realistically this team is the personification (teamification if you will) of mediocre.  They will make the playoffs largely by default. 

How about setting the goal as winning a playoff game?  We need to treat Game 1 of the Wildcard game like it's game 7 of the World Series.  All hands on deck.  Ryan falters, put Gray in.  I'm only half-kidding.  The Twin's playoff record has become an unpleasant trivia question.

[RpR]

Put it this way, Pittsburg 45-66 , has take 5 of 6 from the Dodgers, Cleveland took 2 of 3 from the Dodgers, the Twins cannot win even one, much less make them any thing resembling a close game.

Twins  have real problems and post season could be another horrid embarrassment.

[bean5302]

11 hours ago, 3balls2strikes said:

Have you watched this team for the past 2+ months attempt to play baseball? This bunch of pampered powder-puff players & their limp noodle manager will not make the playoffs in 2022. So the headline of the article is moot. I never dreamed I'd miss Gardenhire & Molitor, but here I am, admitting it. There's no fire, no motivation, no inspiration, no instinct & no playing the hot hand. Just bland, boring, basic number crunching that takes being human out of baseball and leaves a remnant of automated, oft-injured bipeds devoid of heart & soul. 

This just a couple days after Baldelli gets tossed and makes the front page news for losing his mind during AND after the game.

[JD-TWINS]

A number of us experts think 84-85 wins gets us to Playoffs. Probably 86 wins the Division - fair? Pretty sure we can go 29-23 the last 52 games without some savior (Larnach or Maeda)! The guys on IL for weeks & months can’t be the answer - nice bonus but not the key! Buxton has and will remain athletic & fun as well as hurt 40% of the time. Correa, Miranda, Urshella, Kepler, Arraez, Polanco, Gordon…….these guys need to get it done with the help we got at the deadline on the Staff. 86-76 & a bit of momentum going into playoffs where we could surprise ourselves!