MLB is Broken

[Cap'n Piranha]

On 8/11/2022 at 9:35 AM, Hrbowski said:

I disagree that lack of parity is the result of disparity in revenues. Sure, the Dodgers may have the best record and the largest payroll in baseball, but many of their important pieces were not originally acquired via big bucks spent in free agency. For example, Justin Turner, Chris Taylor, and Tyler Anderson were all originally picked up off the scrap heap. Other main pieces were drafted/signed and developed by the organization who were less heralded prospects as amateurs, such as Julio Urias, Walker Buehler, Gavin Lux, Cody Bellinger, Tony Gonsolin, etc. They have other main pieces such as Trea Turner and Mookie Betts that they got via trade by dealing from the depth of their excellent farm system, despite having unfavorable draft placements over the entire last decade. I would argue the disparity is instead the result of how teams are spending their revenues on player development staffs and technology, coaching, and front office employees. There are also many examples of teams that are annually competitive despite having low revenues, and teams that are hit and miss when it comes to competitiveness despite having revenues in the upper echelons, and it generally boils down to how well teams have developed their own players. Increased revenue sharing might help, but I don't think it will have as big of a result as some think as long as certain organizations are unwilling to adopt modern player development philosophies or are unable to attract the best coaches and analysts.

The Dodgers have indeed been exceptional at developing talent.  As have the Rays.  Unlike the Rays, the Dodgers retain all of their proven MLB talent on big-money contracts, unless they use it to acquire even better proven MLB talent.  Doing this also allows them to use their farm system to acquire even more proven MLB talent (Betts, Darvish, Turner, and Scherzer for example) because the Dodgers don't need their prospects to remain competitive.

[Cap'n Piranha]

16 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

Give them more early picks as many as the good teams (one idea is to give the ten worst teams two picks before anyone else picks, for example). Consider (consider) letting the best teams only protect 30 players from the rule 5 draft. 

I like some of these ideas--instead of forcing teams to pay a luxury tax, reduce the size of their 40 man roster; say for every $10M a team spends over the cap, they lose one spot on their 40 man.  Further, have that be the case year round; if the Dodgers want to spend $70M over the cap, that's fine, but their 40 man roster is now a 33 man roster.

[Cap'n Piranha]

1 hour ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

I'm not picking on you but this drives home the larger point I've been making: fans look at the end result of something and say "that needs to be fixed!" without asking "why is this the case?"

Imagine if baseball was more like one of the other major sports. Jose Miranda's rookie season would net him a really nice contract. He wouldn't be forced into the minimum year after year, then given a fraction of his value for several more seasons, only AFTER would he hit free agency and then look for a massive, long-term deal.

If Jose Miranda was paid $8m for his 2022 campaign and others were paid for early-career performance, the union wouldn't focus so much on securing this massive free agency deals because that's the only way players make competitive money in baseball.

But the A's and Pittsburgh would really struggle under the current system if Oneil Cruz is paid $12m for the 2023 season after showing such promise in his rookie campaign.

Which, AGAIN, brings us back to real revenue sharing, the scale of which only owners can agree to make happen.

Baseball is set up to wildly underpay young players, who then aggressively pursue the longest guaranteed contracts possible the moment they finally break into free agency.

The entire system needs to change; young players need to be paid and the revenue gap needs to be a lot smaller. Only AFTER those things are done can we start talking about salary caps and floors along with changing how guaranteed money works in the sport.

The union fights to pay its players, they will agree to changes if the players continue to be paid but the distribution changes. But the proposals we see - primarily from ownership - are focused on limiting how much players can be paid and decreasing the portion of revenue players receive. And the owners have actually won this battle, MLB players are paid a smaller portion of revenue than they were three decades ago, revenue has skyrocketed that much.

Put the players in your own shoes. You work at an underpaid position in a company that sees skyrocketing revenue for years and years. After several years of being underpaid in comparison to others in adjacent industries, you point to the huge revenue increases and say "I want more money, it's only fair", at which point your boss says "I'll pay you a little more than you get now but to get this, I'm going to demand a cap on company labor expenses, which will actually decrease your pay in comparison to revenue over the next five years." NO ONE would agree to that.

Oh, and your boss can also try to force you to accept those terms because the government supports the company in preventing any competition from existing.

Do you kinda get why the players have such a strong union and fight so hard to preserve it?

It feels like to me that the relationship between owners and players is so fractured that the only way forward is for the owners to cede salary decisions to the MLBPA.  Agree on a revenue split (I personally think that 50/50 of all baseball-related revenues is appropriate), and then let the MLBPA distribute that money as it sees fit.

To ensure super teams don't get built up, restrict the number of player-years a team can have on players older than 27, which is the age at which every player is able to obtain full free agency.  So for example, if the Twins have 11` players on their roster older than 27 with a total of 40 years under contract, and the limit is 45 player-years, the Twins can give one 5 year contract to a player over 27, or five 1 year contracts, or some combination.

[DJL44]

26 minutes ago, Cap'n Piranha said:

I like some of these ideas--instead of forcing teams to pay a luxury tax, reduce the size of their 40 man roster; say for every $10M a team spends over the cap, they lose one spot on their 40 man.  Further, have that be the case year round; if the Dodgers want to spend $70M over the cap, that's fine, but their 40 man roster is now a 33 man roster.

What other team is going to get those 7 roster spots? The union isn't going to let you take 7 jobs away.

[TwinsDr2021]

3 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

It’s weird how the Red Sox “couldn’t afford him” as their payroll dropped from $236m in 2019 (after which Betts was traded) to $189m in 2021 and is now back up over $200m again after signing Trevor Story.

Boston traded him for one reason, they thought the three guys they got and the money they saved from Price was going to make their team better than just having Betts and Price. Is it? At this point it sure doesn't seem like it but they still have to prospects that might help?

[Brock Beauchamp]

33 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

Boston traded him for one reason, they thought the three guys they got and the money they saved from Price was going to make their team better than just having Betts and Price. Is it? At this point it sure doesn't seem like it but they still have to prospects that might help?

Primarily this, yes, but without checking I believe Boston also wanted to get back under the luxury tax threshold for one season to reset the penalty to zero. The luxury tax penalty stacks the more consecutive seasons a team is over it. 

[Cap'n Piranha]

51 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

What other team is going to get those 7 roster spots? The union isn't going to let you take 7 jobs away.

Should be pretty easy to portion those out to other organizations who aren't spending as much.

[bean5302]

5 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

...Imagine if baseball was more like one of the other major sports. Jose Miranda's rookie season would net him a really nice contract. He wouldn't be forced into the minimum year after year, then given a fraction of his value for several more seasons, only AFTER would he hit free agency and then look for a massive, long-term deal...

 

Aside from the nonsense about the revenue split, let's look at the other leagues?

NFL - Players are expected to be major contributors as early as their first season immediately. Top draft picks routinely sign 4 year contracts and only recently are those contracts often fully guaranteed (because of market pressure). The likelihood a first round pick makes it to the big show? Just about 100%. Chances they become a consistent starter? Overall, like 60%. The risk is incredibly low vs. baseball. In 2016 (like Miranda) Emmanuel Ogbah was signed to a 4 year contract for $6.6MM with only $4.4MM guaranteed. He provided $20MM of value on that contract. Jose Miranda had a lower chance of ever making MLB than Ogbah had to be a solid starter. Every year, dozens of NFL players are cut and their contracts nullified.

NHL - Again, contracts are only partially guaranteed. Teams can buy out younger players (under 26) at 1/3rd of their contract or established veterans (26+) at 2/3rds of their contract. Over a dozen buyouts are made every year (take veterans Ryan Suter and Zach Parise as examples...). The first selection in the round 2 draft for the NHL in 2016 was Yegor Korshkov. His entry level contact? 2 years with a MAXIMUM of $925k if he played every game at the NHL level with $70k guaranteed with a 70% chance of playing in the NHL. Less than 10% the guaranteed money of Jose Miranda despite having a much higher likelihood of making the NHL, being a regular and within a year or two.

NBA - Here again, we see about an 80% chance a player makes the league and about a 50% chance they become a regular player. Many times higher than MLB. Ivica Zubac was the second selection (the first selection set an all time record) in the 2016 draft. He signed an entry level contract in the NBA. 2 years with a TEAM option for the 3rd year. 2yrs $2.3MM guaranteed, with a team option for $1MM which was declined after his trade. He played in his first season.

There are colossal differences in risk between MLB and the other sports. MLB will never and should never pay its draft picks and young players the same way as other leagues. The amount of risk and future cost the MLB team absorbs is huge. MiLB player salaries aren't huge, but the training, coaches, medical costs, benefits and MiLB facilities paid for by the MLB club are.

MLB players who make it enjoy far longer careers (50% longer than NHL/NBA, over 100% longer than the NFL) with the opportunity to make enormous sums of guaranteed money regardless of how fickle their performance may be with no chance of ever being bought out or cut for salary savings and a much lower risk of permanent physical injuries than the NFL or NHL.

Everybody works the system. I've never met a service industry worker who ever claimed real cash tips, ever. I don't know anybody who disclosed sales tax they didn't pay for online purchases. Every time a poor gas station worker sets the price wrong at the pump, the entire area lines up and tries to clean out the store. I don't know anybody who claims rent money they receive on a room they rent out as income. Owners exploit the system. So do players. So do you. Owners have too much power in the world outside baseball, not inside baseball, but until people spend time learning economics and demanding fair treatment with their votes instead of learning baseball analytics, what the Kardashians ate last night for dinner, which celebrity slapped another, and how to master a double-tap on their video game controller, it will not change.

[Mike Sixel]

1 hour ago, bean5302 said:

Aside from the nonsense about the revenue split, let's look at the other leagues?

NFL - Players are expected to be major contributors as early as their first season immediately. Top draft picks routinely sign 4 year contracts and only recently are those contracts often fully guaranteed (because of market pressure). The likelihood a first round pick makes it to the big show? Just about 100%. Chances they become a consistent starter? Overall, like 60%. The risk is incredibly low vs. baseball. In 2016 (like Miranda) Emmanuel Ogbah was signed to a 4 year contract for $6.6MM with only $4.4MM guaranteed. He provided $20MM of value on that contract. Jose Miranda had a lower chance of ever making MLB than Ogbah had to be a solid starter. Every year, dozens of NFL players are cut and their contracts nullified.

NHL - Again, contracts are only partially guaranteed. Teams can buy out younger players (under 26) at 1/3rd of their contract or established veterans (26+) at 2/3rds of their contract. Over a dozen buyouts are made every year (take veterans Ryan Suter and Zach Parise as examples...). The first selection in the round 2 draft for the NHL in 2016 was Yegor Korshkov. His entry level contact? 2 years with a MAXIMUM of $925k if he played every game at the NHL level with $70k guaranteed with a 70% chance of playing in the NHL. Less than 10% the guaranteed money of Jose Miranda despite having a much higher likelihood of making the NHL, being a regular and within a year or two.

NBA - Here again, we see about an 80% chance a player makes the league and about a 50% chance they become a regular player. Many times higher than MLB. Ivica Zubac was the second selection (the first selection set an all time record) in the 2016 draft. He signed an entry level contract in the NBA. 2 years with a TEAM option for the 3rd year. 2yrs $2.3MM guaranteed, with a team option for $1MM which was declined after his trade. He played in his first season.

There are colossal differences in risk between MLB and the other sports. MLB will never and should never pay its draft picks and young players the same way as other leagues. The amount of risk and future cost the MLB team absorbs is huge. MiLB player salaries aren't huge, but the training, coaches, medical costs, benefits and MiLB facilities paid for by the MLB club are.

MLB players who make it enjoy far longer careers (50% longer than NHL/NBA, over 100% longer than the NFL) with the opportunity to make enormous sums of guaranteed money regardless of how fickle their performance may be with no chance of ever being bought out or cut for salary savings and a much lower risk of permanent physical injuries than the NFL or NHL.

Everybody works the system. I've never met a service industry worker who ever claimed real cash tips, ever. I don't know anybody who disclosed sales tax they didn't pay for online purchases. Every time a poor gas station worker sets the price wrong at the pump, the entire area lines up and tries to clean out the store. I don't know anybody who claims rent money they receive on a room they rent out as income. Owners exploit the system. So do players. So do you. Owners have too much power in the world outside baseball, not inside baseball, but until people spend time learning economics and demanding fair treatment with their votes instead of learning baseball analytics, what the Kardashians ate last night for dinner, which celebrity slapped another, and how to master a double-tap on their video game controller, it will not change.

Of course, baseball players also play in the minors for less than minimum wage for at least two years, likely four or more if they come out of high school.... Those without big bonuses literally lose money every year, and sleep four or five in two bedroom apartments..... 

[bean5302]

45 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Of course, baseball players also play in the minors for less than minimum wage for at least two years, likely four or more if they come out of high school.... Those without big bonuses literally lose money every year, and sleep four or five in two bedroom apartments..... 

I swear this BS never gets old to you guys, does it?

[Mike Sixel]

3 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

I swear this BS never gets old to you guys, does it?

Weren't we comparing pay among sports? Do other sports have that? I think not.

[Brock Beauchamp]

56 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

I swear this BS never gets old to you guys, does it?

Dude, tone it down. Everyone here was having a civil conversation until you showed up. 

[Steve71]

I don't think anyone can objectively look at MLB pay and not acknowledge that young MLB calibre players are underpaid, and older "superstars" end up frequently being overpaid.  That distortion needs to stop, but if we have a magic wand that is only a small piece of the overall problem.