Identifying the Twins’ Top 3 Weaknesses

[Cody Christie]

Minnesota’s front office filled multiple needs at the trade deadline, but the team is hardly perfect. So, what are the team’s most significant weaknesses?

 

 

Baseball’s 162-game season is a long, grueling battle to divide the contenders from the pretenders. The AL Central is one of baseball’s worst divisions this season, which helps the top teams stay in contention. Minnesota needs to solve the weaknesses below, or Chicago and Cleveland will claw their way to a division title. 

Struggling Veteran Bats
All hitters go through streaks, and teams hope that other players pick up the line-up when stars are slumping. Unfortunately, the Twins have seen some of their best hitters struggle since the beginning of July. Carlos Correa was brought in to bring a championship pedigree to the Twins but has hit .186/.288/.333 (.621) in his last 27 games. Only Gary Sanchez has a lower OPS (.470) among regular players during that stretch, but he has done it in a third as many plate appearances. 

Minnesota’s only regulars with an OPS over .835 since July 1 are Jose Miranda and Nick Gordon, who were hardly expected to lead the team to the playoffs. For the Twins to win the division, the team’s veteran bats need to break their summer slump and start impacting the line-up on a daily basis. 

Clutch Hitting
Hitting in high leverage situations is almost impossible to predict because a player can be clutch for one moment, but it might not translate to an entire season. Also, few hitters can consistently hit in the highest leverage spots. FanGraphs uses a stat called Clutch, which measures how well a player performs in high leverage situations. Minnesota currently ranks 17th with a -0.12 Clutch ranking, which is below average. Among AL Central teams, only the White Sox rank lower than the Twins. 

Minnesota’s best hitters, according to Clutch, include Luis Arraez, Jorge Polanco, and Jose Miranda, who all rank above average. Max Kepler is at the bottom of the team’s Clutch leaderboard with a -1.19 ranking. Other poorly ranked players include Nick Gordon ( -0.76), Carlos Correa (-0.68), and Kyle Garlick (-0.61). Down the stretch, the Twins will need more clutch hitting from all parts of the line-up. 

Mounting Pitching Problems
Luckily, the Twins tried to improve their pitching problems with multiple trade deadline moves, but that doesn’t take away from how bad the team has been recently. Since July 1, the Twins pitching staff ranks 26th in fWAR, with the starters only ranking higher than the last-place Washington Nationals. During that stretch, Minnesota’s starters have a 4.85 ERA, a 69.7 LOB%, and 1.53 HR/9, which all rank among baseball’s bottom ten teams.

Tyler Duffey and Joe Smith helped the Twins at different points during the 2022 season, but both had run out of gas in recent weeks. Replacing those two players with Jorge Lopez and Michael Fulmer will help the team down the stretch. Other injured pitchers like Josh Winder, Bailey Ober, and Kenta Maeda expect to return in the weeks ahead to give the pitching staff another boost. 

Even baseball’s best teams have weaknesses, but it’s getting close to the point in the season where the Twins need to start putting their best product on the field. If Minnesota can’t solve these issues, the AL Central race will continue to be close for the season’s remaining games. 

Which weakness do you feel is the biggest concern? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

 

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[TopGunn#22]

The trade deadline addressed several of these and the bullpen got much better by the additions as well as the subtractions.  But clutch hitting as well as "situational" hitting has been a Twins weakness consistently.  We still strike out far too much, especially in situations where a strikeout kills us.  For example:  striking out with a runner on 3B and less than 2 outs.  We also appear to be incapable of moving the extra inning runner at 2B to 3B with our first hitter of the inning (even when we're fumbling to get a bunt down).  Putting that runner on 3B with one out puts incredible pressure on the defense and we consistently fail to accomplish this.

[Eris]

The greatest weakness is having SP that can only go 4 or 5 innings as this means that most RP will run out of gas    
 

 

 

[Whitey333]

Excellent article!!  You pinpointed the holes in the team very well.  The pitching has been atrocious.  The bullpen has 22 losses tied to it.  The starters have one of the highest ERA's and amongst the fewest innings pitched in baseball.  But to me the biggest problem has been the lack of production from veteran players.  Buxton is always injured and when he plays he's not very good.  Granted he has 26 homeruns but that's about it. His average is terrible and strikeout rate is alarming.  Oh yes he's injured so his poor production can be blamed on that.  This year it is his knee.  Correa has been the biggest negative.  He started the year ok but I would argue he hasn't been worth 35 million.  He is overly babied by the manager.  Kepler has been awful most of the year.  Polanco is doing good.  One of the few veterans that appears to want to be in the lineup every day.  The young players on this team are the ones holding the team up.  They are the reason we are in contention not the veterans.  Correa has been a joke most of the season.  I hope he doesn't opt in for next year.  That money could be used to upgrade other areas.

[RJA]

I agree with all three of your points.  Good article.  The bright spots in all of this for me are the performances of Miranda and Gordon.  Gordon has established himself as a real asset with his clutch hitting, energy, and position flexibility.  Miranda looks to be one of those players who is at his best when games are on the line.  He reminds me a bit of Miguel Cabrera, and will be an all  star player in the coming years IMHO.  

[rv78]

All 3 are correct but I think you should add the Manager as #4. Doesn't use his Starters efectively which causes him to overuse the bullpen. Sticks with an ineffective pitcher too long in high leverage situations like Colome last year and Duffey and Pagan this year. Refuses to play small ball when it could win a game. Rests his better players like he did with Correa and Buxton on Sunday, the same day, when they already have Monday and Thursday off this week. Puts non-productive hitters like Sano and Kepler in the middle of the lineup, which changes daily so there is no consistancy. Has had Buxton leading off and Arraez hitting behind him, which is the exact opposite of what it should be since Arraez gets on base and Buxton hits HR. Puts a player like Garlick in the lineup against lefty pitchers yet doesn't pinch hit for him when the other team brings in a righty from the bullpen. His inconsistancy is a reflection on the team and the way they play, inconsistant.

[Reptevia]

The article above places Gordon as a poor clutch hitter. 

[Karbo]

50 minutes ago, Reptevia said:

The article above places Gordon as a poor clutch hitter. 

 

[tarheeltwinsfan]

I suggest that if we look at the spray charts of where the Twins' "good clutch hitters" hit the baseball in "clutch situations", that the charts will show that the "successful clutch hitters" are hitting to the opposite field at a much higher percentage than the "not very good at clutch hitting hitters".   Am I the only one who thinks this way? Yes, it is good to hit the ball as hard as you can in some situations, but it is also good to recognize the situation and sometimes follow Wee Willie Keeler's advice to "hit'em where they ain't". In extra innings, down by one run, nobody out, and a runner at 2B, Buck should have been punching the ball to the right of the infield, or bunting to advance the tying run to 3B, instead of striking out by swinging for the left field fence.  Oh, I know Buck has 26 home runs and a homer would be a walk-off victory, but how did that strategy work out? Just hit the ball to the right side of the infield or outfield and advance the runner.  I speak from experience from my days of playing intermural softball at UNC, where my single to right field (I bat right-handed) drove in the winning run, in walk-off fashion, and my team won the UNC Graduate School Intermural Softball Championship in 1972. But then, you probably already knew that.

[Karbo]

IMHO the biggest problems are 1-starters that don't pitch long enough. Lowest IP per start of any team in contention

2-Poorly constructed bullpen. All the relievers seem to be one and done. Need a couple of dependable 2-3 inning relievers

3-Injuries. Yes every team has them but look at how many injury games we've lost to players expected to be heavy contributors this year.

4- Poor management. FO didn't get the guys we needed in the spring and Rocco sometimes seems to be in over his head.

5- Poor fundamentals. Lack of being able to adapt to the situations when needed. Don't run the bases well, can't bunt, don't seem to be able to hit behind runners to advance them.

[Swing Batter-Batter]

2 hours ago, Eris said:

The greatest weakness is having SP that can only go 4 or 5 innings as this means that most RP will run out of gas    
 

 

 

EXACTLY and this has been going on all season, almost from game #1. Rocco wore out the bullpen before we got to mid-June.

 

[Doctor Gast]

51 minutes ago, TopGunn#22 said:

The trade deadline addressed several of these and the bullpen got much better by the additions as well as the subtractions.  But clutch hitting as well as "situational" hitting has been a Twins weakness consistently.  We still strike out far too much, especially in situations where a strikeout kills us.  For example:  striking out with a runner on 3B and less than 2 outs.  We also appear to be incapable of moving the extra inning runner at 2B to 3B with our first hitter of the inning (even when we're fumbling to get a bunt down).  Putting that runner on 3B with one out puts incredible pressure on the defense and we consistently fail to accomplish this.

 

52 minutes ago, TopGunn#22 said:

The trade deadline addressed several of these and the bullpen got much better by the additions as well as the subtractions.  But clutch hitting as well as "situational" hitting has been a Twins weakness consistently.  We still strike out far too much, especially in situations where a strikeout kills us.  For example:  striking out with a runner on 3B and less than 2 outs.  We also appear to be incapable of moving the extra inning runner at 2B to 3B with our first hitter of the inning (even when we're fumbling to get a bunt down).  Putting that runner on 3B with one out puts incredible pressure on the defense and we consistently fail to accomplish this.

Great article, Cody. It's very important to find our weakness and improve on them. I also agree w/ TopGun that another area is lack of training in small ball- bunting, stealing, hit & run, hit the other way. After the year of the "live ball" (2019) our game strategy can longer be hit "moon blasts". Now in close games the strategy has to change from SO or FO as a result from the "moon blast" strategy to small ball, getting our runners in scoring postions & capitalize.

But our greatest problem is the innings gap between the SP to closer. Our current strategy is (on the average) 1 SP- 5 innings + 4-5 short RPs to go 1 inning each in a 9 inning game if there's overtime or doubleheaders will cause additional strain . That means we have to have IMO maybe 11 short RPs that we can interchange & at least 2 to close and that we can trust to compete. After we traded Rogers it turned out that we could only trust Duran as closer & Jax & sometimes Theilbar. So that means we have to go mostly go with short RPs which can't trust to complete games.

Management solution was to over extend the rotation, result was having all our SPs on the IL at some time or another, tired arms and lost games, so that's not the solution. We have a great rotation but we have what we have, they can give us 5 quality innings sometimes 6 but not consecutively on a regular basis.

At deadline we added to the short RPs that we can trust, a SP who supposingly can pitch 6+ innings regularly, released Duffy and put Pagan on the IL. This was a vast improvement but was it enough? Mahle who were depending to give us atleast 6 quality innings, in the 5th& 6th innings gave up 3 HRs & 4 runs. After 2 games we completely depleted our BP leaving high ERA Sands & LHP Theilbar to face a dominating RH batters. They used Sands in long relief and proved as w/ Cotton that they are terrible in short relief but does well in long.

My solution is long relief and use them regularly to fill that terrible gap. We have disgruntal A Sanchez, Smeltzer and Cotton sitting in AAA, that are very capable & trust worthy as present  candidates with Winder and Ober soon returning, Why waste them all in AAA? Makes no sense to me, especially when we have a gap to fill. So the solution is not over relying on short relief or over extending our SP with added innings, it is to implement long relief to keep everyone healthy, fresh & happy to get us to & thru the post season.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

11 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

 

Great article, Cody. It's very important to find our weakness and improve on them. I also agree w/ TopGun that another area is lack of training in small ball- bunting, stealing, hit & run, hit the other way. After the year of the "live ball" (2019) our game strategy can longer be hit "moon blasts". Now in close games the strategy has to change from SO or FO as a result from the "moon blast" strategy to small ball, getting our runners in scoring postions & capitalize.

But our greatest problem is the innings gap between the SP to closer. Our current strategy is (on the average) 1 SP- 5 innings + 4-5 short RPs to go 1 inning each in a 9 inning game if there's overtime or doubleheaders will cause additional strain . That means we have to have IMO maybe 11 short RPs that we can interchange & at least 2 to close and that we can trust to compete. After we traded Rogers it turned out that we could only trust Duran as closer & Jax & sometimes Theilbar. So that means we have to go mostly go with short RPs which can't trust to complete games.

Management solution was to over extend the rotation, result was having all our SPs on the IL at some time or another, tired arms and lost games, so that's not the solution. We have a great rotation but we have what we have, they can give us 5 quality innings sometimes 6 but not consecutively on a regular basis.

At deadline we added to the short RPs that we can trust, a SP who supposingly can pitch 6+ innings regularly, released Duffy and put Pagan on the IL. This was a vast improvement but was it enough? Mahle who were depending to give us atleast 6 quality innings, in the 5th& 6th innings gave up 3 HRs & 4 runs. After 2 games we completely depleted our BP leaving high ERA Sands & LHP Theilbar to face a dominating RH batters. They used Sands in long relief and proved as w/ Cotton that they are terrible in short relief but does well in long.

My solution is long relief and use them regularly to fill that terrible gap. We have disgruntal A Sanchez, Smeltzer and Cotton sitting in AAA, that are very capable & trust worthy as present  candidates with Winder and Ober soon returning, Why waste them all in AAA? Makes no sense to me, especially when we have a gap to fill. So the solution is not over relying on short relief or over extending our SP with added innings, it is to implement long relief to keep everyone healthy, fresh & happy to get us to & thru the post season.

Great post Doc.

[Blyleven2011]

I DITTO EVERYONE THAT WROTE BEFORE ME  ...

With reading the article and the numbers  I can't believe Rocco keeps  using his spread sheets  ...

THEY AREN'T WORKING  ROCCO  ...

[farmerguychris]

I think our weakest area is Pagan.  Here are his stats in the last 30 days:

3-4 record with a 6.11 ERA in 28 innings by giving up 31 hits and 7 walks leading to 19 earned runs.

You can't keep sending him out there unless up by 4 or more runs.

I know we need some 'filler' innings to keep Duran, Lopez, and Fulmer fresh.  I just don't think it should include Pagan.  Impressed by Sands last game in this role, perhaps give Smeltzer the role of Pagan?

[LA VIkes Fan]

I agree with the premise of the article but disagree with the comments that this is somehow the manager's fault or that the FO hasn't tried to deal with these issues. The reality is that the Twins have about 80-85% of the players necessary for a championship contender. We are short at least (1) a true workhorse starter who can consistently give us 7+ innings a game, (2) another middle of the order bat that can be a consistent run producer (that's more due to injury than anything else), and (3) sufficient bullpen depth, including a shut down left-handed relief pitcher.  If you look at the statistics, you can understand why Rocco is not letting our starters have that 3rd trip through the order; all of them, repeat all of them, have consistently poor results that 3rd trip through. Even Ryan. Gray has always been that way. You could try to develop younger pitchers like Ryan by giving him that 3rd trip through but that may be at the expense of a few wins over the course of the season. I think the front office made the right move picking up Tyler Mahle to try to give us that 7+ inning pitcher. Time will tell if he can actually do that.

The lack of a middle of the order band is I think the bigger problem because it puts too much pressure on the 4 or 5 solid offensive guys we have and over time their performance suffers as a result. To me, this was the one thing we didn't get at the trade deadline that we should have. Thank goodness for the development of José Miranda and the emergence or career year of Nick Gordon because without them we would really be in trouble offensively. I do think the FO did a good job strengthening the bullpen at the deadline and made the right call with Tyler Duffey. I would frankly like to see them make the same call with Pagan but I understand the irresistible lure of his talent. He at least has the basic talent to be a successful pitcher, something Duffey unfortunately no longer has. There are at least attacking this weakness and the return of Maeda in the bullpen could really help if that happens.

I think our record is very reflective of our talent level and I think Rocco has done a good job of maximizing the production of the players he has. I think the bottom line is that were just short a little bit on the talent side so it requires us to have guys do more than there really capable of to be successful. I frankly think the injuries to Larnach and Kirilloff in particular really hurt us by depriving us of that guy that could hit in the number 5 or 6 hole and really lengthen in the lineup. Guys like Kepler, Sanchez, Urshela, Celestino, and now Cave are nice players to have if they hit 7 through 9 order where occasional offensive contributions can be enjoyed. The problem is we don't have enough hitters so all of a sudden Gordon has to hit 5, Buxton has to play when he really should be on the IL, Polanco doesn't get the chance to heal his back, and the team winds up counting on guys like the 4 mentioned above to be run producers. They aren't and probably never will be(although you never know with the guys in a Celestino).

The real issue is were just a little short of the players we need. That's not Rocco's fault. I don't know if he or the Front Office are average, good, or great. The one thing I do know since they got here the team is better, more competitive, more enjoyable to watch, and gives one hope that they could actually win the division and even potentially compete in the playoffs. That is a huge step up from where we were before they got here. 

[Rosterman]

We need rotation arms to go more than 4-5 innings. Bundy is questionable. Archer should explore the bullpen, for now. Maybe that will happen when Winder or Ober come back.

You need to advance that runner. And then egt them home. 

And the Twins will need to address catcher. Maybe Leon will be a stud for the remainder of the year!

But the key is to have starting pitchers pitch like starting pitchers. You can keep rotating guys in-and-out of the pen from St. Paul, or overusing your top key arms.

[Doctor Gast]

1 hour ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

Great post Doc.

Thanks Tarheel, I really appreciate it.

[joemama]

Starters going 4-5 only works if they're followed by guys who can go 2-3. The standard in the regular season should be to get 7 innings from the SP+1st reliever, then two high-leverage 1-inning guys. That changes in the playoffs because there are more days off.

With this rotation, and Baldelli's quick hook, outings like Sands' effort on Sunday need to be much more common. More Sands/Smeltzer/A.Sanchez and minimal to no Pagan.

[TwinsDr2021]

1 hour ago, Doctor Gast said:

candidates with Winder and Ober soon returning,

Serious question why are people talking about Ober (he has/had an aponeurotic plate injury) as some savior to the Twins rotation, he hasn't averaged 5 innings a start since 2019 in A* and AA. Plus from rotowire as of 10 days ago hadn't thrown off a mound and today will begin bullpen progression in Fort Myers in hopes of a September return. Seriously even if he comes back in September the odds are they will use him in the same role (or maybe just a relief pitcher) he has been pitching the last two years, so the best we can hope for is some sort of piggy backing.  As for Winder also from rotowire he is in Fort Myers beginning bullpen progression and will needs three plus weeks to get fully ramped back up and likely wouldn't rejoin the Twins until the roster expands.

As for Maeda he was slated to start facing hits in August, does anybody know if that has started? But I would assume the earliest he could be up is a minimum three weeks after that. Dobnak threw live batting practice last week and no timetable for his return.

(IMO I believe as fans we can hope one or more might help the Twins, but the odds of any of them really contributing to the Twins this year is probably not very good)

[Doctor Gast]

22 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

Serious question why are people talking about Ober (he has/had an aponeurotic plate injury) as some savior to the Twins rotation, he hasn't averaged 5 innings a start since 2019 in A* and AA. Plus from rotowire as of 10 days ago hadn't thrown off a mound and today will begin bullpen progression in Fort Myers in hopes of a September return. Seriously even if he comes back in September the odds are they will use him in the same role (or maybe just a relief pitcher) he has been pitching the last two years, so the best we can hope for is some sort of piggy backing.  As for Winder also from rotowire he is in Fort Myers beginning bullpen progression and will needs three plus weeks to get fully ramped back up and likely wouldn't rejoin the Twins until the roster expands.

As for Maeda he was slated to start facing hits in August, does anybody know if that has started? But I would assume the earliest he could be up is a minimum three weeks after that. Dobnak threw live batting practice last week and no timetable for his return.

(IMO I believe as fans we can hope one or more might help the Twins, but the odds of any of them really contributing to the Twins this year is probably not very good)

That's why I mentioned Ober as a long relief possibility, not as a starter. I too don't put too much hope in those you mentioned to come in and make a great impact on the team. Actually our candidates for long relief that are available right now are more than enough capable to greatly help us, Our need for long relief has been long over due and needs to be implemented yesterday and regularly used.

[python85]

2 hours ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

a true workhorse starter who can consistently give us 7+ innings a game,

Pitchers that consistently give 7+ innings are a thing of the past. If my quick search is correct there is currently only one MLB pitcher (Sandy Alcantara) averaging more than 7 innings per start. Yes our starters need to go deeper into games, but the player that you are saying we are "short" just doesn't exist anymore.

[lukeduke1980]

I think not winning any/many blowouts is a weakness, though could be imaginary or a product of offense being down in baseball.  Seemingly every game is close. The ultimate bullpen protector is putting up some crooked numbers early and letting Cole Sands pitch the final 3 innings.

[roger]

2 hours ago, farmerguychris said:

I think our weakest area is Pagan.  Here are his stats in the last 30 days:

3-4 record with a 6.11 ERA in 28 innings by giving up 31 hits and 7 walks leading to 19 earned runs.

You can't keep sending him out there unless up by 4 or more runs.

I know we need some 'filler' innings to keep Duran, Lopez, and Fulmer fresh.  I just don't think it should include Pagan.  Impressed by Sands last game in this role, perhaps give Smeltzer the role of Pagan?

Has Pagan really pitched 28 innings in the last 30 days?  If so, that may be the reason he has been disappointing as I suspect most of those outings were an inning or less, ie, he must have made around 25 appearances.

[farmerguychris]

23 minutes ago, roger said:

Has Pagan really pitched 28 innings in the last 30 days?  If so, that may be the reason he has been disappointing as I suspect most of those outings were an inning or less, ie, he must have made around 25 appearances.

Sorry - that was supposed to be his last 30 games, not his last 30 days according to what I found on MLB.com.

[Dan Engebretson]

I would add "player development" as a weakness.  Examples of poor player development that are too frequently seen include poor baserunning.  Grabbing a recent example, in Sunday's 10th inning loss, Kepler should have stayed near the bag on the Miranda's ball hit to the center field so Kepler could tag and advance to third.  Rather, he went half-way on contact and had to retreat to second and lost the chance to advance to third.  Gordon's groundout could have scored a smart baserunning Kepler from third, instead the poor baserunning Kepler could only get to third.

In an earlier post in this thread, tarheeltwinsfan nicely articulated differences between "good clutch hitters" and "poor clutch hitters."  The last few weeks not withstanding, most of the Twins hitters are really quite good; focusing on pre-All Star numbers, the Twins had the fifth highest OPS in MLB and 3rd highest in the AL.  That's a team that knows how to hit a baseball (they have the talent).  However, those numbers tank with RISP and particularly RISP with two out.  I think well-developed hitters are aware of the situtation and rather than swinging for the fences in those situations, htey focus on advancing the runner, not getting out, and particularly not striking out (particularly with two out).

[TwinsDr2021]

1 hour ago, python85 said:

Pitchers that consistently give 7+ innings are a thing of the past. If my quick search is correct there is currently only one MLB pitcher (Sandy Alcantara) averaging more than 7 innings per start. Yes our starters need to go deeper into games, but the player that you are saying we are "short" just doesn't exist anymore.

You are correct on Alcantara, But it isn't like there are no pitches getting their team into the 7th or even finishing the 7th. If you average 6 innings or more a start, you are pretty consistently getting your team to the 7th.

Nola has started 22 games, 9 times he pitched in the 6th, 7 times in the 7th, 3 in the 8th 2 in the 9, and 1 below 5. Over half his starts he went 7+ to me that is pretty consistent.  You can run though this exercise with at least 20 pitchers and find that in half or very close to half of all their starts they see the 7th inning, it drops down to about 1/4 of their starts they see the 8th.

Yes, there are way more pitchers not ever getting to the 7th then there are, but to say it isn't happening just isn't a true.

 

 

[bean5302]

Top 3 weaknesses in regard to what? Making the playoffs? Advancing in the playoffs?

I think the Twins have a pretty good shot at the playoffs right now. The roster is pretty solidly constructed. It's not a great team, but it's a good one without a lot of weaknesses, to be honest. Just "good" across the board. There is a big problem looming, though, and that's continuing depth due to a lot of injuries. Kepler's playing with a broken toe... When Kirilloff gets added, the Twins will have 11 players on the 60 day IL and some of those names would have been pretty dang important.

1 to 5 scale, 5 being excellent, 4 great, 3 good, 2 adequate, 1 poor.
SP1 - Gray (4)
SP2 - Mahle (3) - I am not nearly as bullish on Mahle as many
SP3 - Ryan (2)
SP4 - Bundy (2)
SP5 - Archer (1)
Sum = 2.4 avg. 
BP1 - Lopez (5)
BP2 - Duran (4)
BP3 - Fulmer (4)
BP4 - Thielbar (3)
BP5 - Jax (3)
BP6 - Megill (3)
BP7 - Pagan (1)
BP8 - Sands (1)
Sum = 3.0 avg.
C - Sanchez (2)
1B - Arraez (4)
2B - Polanco (4)
3B - Urshela (2)
SS - Correa (4)
LF - Cave (2)
CF - Buxton (5)
RF - Kepler (3)
DH - Miranda (3)
Sum = 3.33 avg.
UO - Gordon (3)
UO - Celestino (1)
UI - Beckham (2)
C2 - Leon (1)
Sum = 1.75 avg.

The depth at St. Paul is actually pretty solid, surprisingly. Catcher being the lone black hole. If the Twins need an outfielder, easy to call on Contreras. Infielder? Palacios. Rotation? Smeltzer and Sanchez. Relief pitcher? Henriquez. Nothing I'd want to count on as an every day player replacement, really, but honestly nobody I believe would be worse than a scrub level guy, either. Once you get past the surface, though, it's a chasm of question marks, duct tape and super glue.

As far as playoffs... there's nobody in the rotation I have faith in as a #1-2 guy leading the way right now. Gray's been pretty rough lately (4.91 ERA, 4.47 FIP, 4.66 xFIP, 7.67 K/9, 3.99 BB/9 over his last 6 starts) and I want to see Mahle pitch a few games for the Twins before I anoint him an Ace as some of the community have. I think the Twins are solid everywhere else. Unfortunately, when it comes to the playoffs, the teams aren't just solid, they're great. Compared to other playoff teams, I think the Twins are a little weaker.

[KBJ1]

They finally addressed the bullpen & picked up a starter since everyone is hurt. 

Their biggest glaring need right now is 1B. Why they didnt jump all over Hosmer who the Padres paid Boston to take is beyond me?? A veteran presence,  excellent fielder who has about the same #'s at the plate as. Correa does would have been a godsend.

Fielding at 1B has already cost them.

Let the starters pitch at least 6.

Play small ball more. Bunt, steal, sacrifice.

Somehow get everyone healthy.

Hard to win when your entire outfield, half your starting pitching and a catcher are on the DL.

 

[DocBauer]

I'm assuming we are talking about finishing the season strong and not the playoffs. A lot of things change once the playoffs happen. But different discussion for a different day.

So weaknesses as of NOW:

3] You can't "fix" something as abstract as clutch hitting. Those kind of things can vary so much week to week, month to month, season to season based on everything from hot streaks to opportunity to lineup protection. I believe what you CAN do is present the best lineup possible. Correa is just so good that you have to believe he will get hot again. Keep him in the top 3 with Arraez and Polanco, most days, and Miranda and Kepler probably "platoon" at the 4th spot. Let Buck hit around 5 or 6 at this point as a dangerous hitter. Hopefully, we get a healthy Larnach back to finish the season doing what he did before he got hurt. If not, we have to get the best we can from Gordon, Celestino, and maybe even Cave in the bottom 3rd of the lineup. A healthy Garlick could really help against LHP. If he can't get back, is there anything left to pick up that could help???

In other words, weakness is OF right now. Have to hope for health. Otherwise, while you won't re-invent anyone at this point, you can at least "practice" some bunting and contact situations.

2] NOT going to get in to a SP debate. Minor injuries and covid has affected Gray and Ryan. I can see watching their IP to a degree to keep them strong at the end. Losing Ober hurt the rotation. Losing Winder, at least for now, hurt the rotation. Mahle changes the entire complexion a TON. Bundy is what he is, which is solid and gives a chance most days. Archer is what he is. There is SOME hope he might yet move to 5 IP daily at this point. Talking playoffs, just for a moment, they might be a 1-2 punch piggyback, maybe even before the playoffs. Good health and IP monitoring might just see Mahle, Gray, and Ryan start to consistently throw 90+ pitches and lengthen out. We're not perfect, but we are improved. And a return to health for Winder or Ober, (Not betting on Ober), could really help. 

1] The pen still needs assistance. The back end is not great, but vastly improved. I have real confidence in our last 5. Yes, I even feel good about Thielbar, who has generally been very good after a few bad early outings. Youth in Jax and Duran might be the only real weakness here. The problem remains the last 3 spots and middle relief. That's all the more with the back end of the rotation. Haven't heard about Pagan's status. I never want to see anyone getting injured. But his "loss" might be a blessing  for the pen in the long run. I believe Moran has a chance to help the pen in 2022 and beyond. He's still a rookie, but early returns are good and his future is potentially bright. There is room and NEED for 2 guys to successfully fill a middle innings role. Is Sands ready for that? How about Smeltzer? A healthy Winder? Despite a very poor start to 2022 with Washington, Sanchez has pitched well for St Paul and looked very good in his one start. Could he be a guy?

Lopez and Fulmer were great additions! And they deepened the pen. But the staff is 13 men and all can and are important. And right now, despite the additions/improvements being great, they need to make the middle 3 spots GOOD, and not just questionable. That's why Duffey was released.

Short:

1) Adjust the lineup for best results, hope for Kepler. Larnach, and Garlick. MAYBE check out the waiver wire but is there really anyone worthwhile? Never too late to spend some time working on bunts or contact plays.

2) Find a middle of the pen that is good and reliable because it helps BOTH the rotation AND the pen usage.