Where Did the Good Carlos Correa Go?

[RpR]

52 minutes ago, heresthething said:

Exactly this...and especially (2) He does not have a killer lineup surrounding him, where he is just one of many top hitters.

The fact he does not have the same first baseman every game may be part of the problem; If one knows what the player he is throwing to will/can do if one screws up, it gives the thrower confidence the 1st baseman will over come any defect in the throw.

Uncertainty, magnifies errors.

[Trov]

If he continues to struggle the rest of the season like he has over last few weeks, then maybe he opts in next year, but his numbers are still very good at a position of high need.  I would still expect a team willing to give up long term deal if he bounces back to normal the rest of the year. 

Maybe he opts in, and if he does I will not be upset at all. 

[darwin22]

22 hours ago, Danchat said:

IMO he's been worth more around $20-25M so far. Great to have at SS, but his bat has been streakier than I expected. I wouldn't be shocked if things clicked going down the stretch and his bat heats up... but I'd also rather not be the team that gives him a 8 year deal. I'd rather put that money into other positions and rely on Lewis and Palacios for the future of the position. But I wouldn't hate to have Correa opt back in for 2023.

Agree with your assessment.  Don't know if you or others know the answer to this?

What is the SS FA agent market for 2023?  

I'm fairly certain there are a number of SS that will be free agents in the off season.  If Correa's bat doesn't significantly improve over the next 7-8 weeks, I would be surprised if he opts out as I can't see ANY team willing to give him $30-35mill over an 8-10 years. 

[tony&rodney]

7 hours ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

When you pay somebody millions of dollars it plays into expectations. First I liked the signing and still do, I like Correa, but I feel offensively he has under performed, but to be honest if the Twins were paying half of what they are I still would feel he hasn't met my expectations, why? Because he is Carlos F'N Correa he should be all world no matter the pay check and I am still expecting that from him the rest of the year.

I do get the disappointment with Correa, Buxton, Polanco, and Kepler. I'm hoping for a big push to close 2022 from each/all of those guys.

Two things to consider: 1) let Pohlad be disappointed or ecstatic with how the money is spent and allow yourself the luxury of enjoying the players for what they are; don't give in to attaching money to people. 2) Baseball players are not robots and they actually have higher expectations of themselves than their fans, but sometimes the human element comes into the equation.

Baseball is a fun game, enjoy it.

[KirbyDome89]

6 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

The 8.5M per WAR represents the average cost of free agents.  Cost and value are not the same thing.  Paying 8.5M per WAR for a mid-market team is a recipe for failure.  To put this in perspective, if they were to sign four players that produced 4 WAR at 8.5M, the cost would be 136M which of course is almost their entire budget.  Even if they spent $150M, every single player among the remaining 22 players would have to be prearb which of course is extremely unrealistic.

The free agent portion of the budget would get you to approximately 66 wins.  Therefore, the requirement in order to build a 95 win team would be that they produce 29 WAR from 15.4M in spending.  The premise that free agents are worth $8.5M is misguided.  They cost $8.5m on average but it's a failure when they produce 1 WAR per $8.5M, especially for lower revenue teams.  That's the other failure of this premise / value proposition.  What is Viable production per dollar spent is far different for the Dodgers / Yankees than the Rays / As.

The equation here is what will be the difference in WAR between Lewis or whoever would replace him plus the war produced with the $150M in the salary (estimated) difference between the replacement over six years.

FA isn't a value play, so complaining about value, particularly in an apples to oranges comparison, is pointless.

What seems misguided is how you're defining failure. Would the Twins be better with Jermaine Palacios and his sub .500 OPS starting? Would spending more prospect capital at the deadline for a SS, assuming the Twins were still in the race and one was available, have been the better solution? Even if Correa is a "failure," and ends up costing more than $8.5M per WAR, he's better than the alternative. 

Correa is third on the team in WAR, but we're bemoaning the guy's AAV while team payroll is down $10M from last season, and a vast majority of the core players are some combination of young/cheap/on team friendly deals? The Twins are winning games this year, Correa is obviously a big part of that, seems far from a "recipe for failure," to me. 

[Vanimal46]

On 8/8/2022 at 4:31 PM, Danchat said:

IMO he's been worth more around $20-25M so far. Great to have at SS, but his bat has been streakier than I expected. I wouldn't be shocked if things clicked going down the stretch and his bat heats up... but I'd also rather not be the team that gives him a 8 year deal. I'd rather put that money into other positions and rely on Lewis and Palacios for the future of the position. But I wouldn't hate to have Correa opt back in for 2023.

Other positions… where exactly? They’re basically set everywhere except catcher and DH. Free agent pitching is one of the worst ROI in sports. 

[Twodogs]

9 hours ago, Dman said:

I have no idea why Rod Carew was given as an example as it isn't really related to Correa at all but that was example given. Still if Rod Carew was putting up a .725 OPS as the poster stated no one in MLB would be wanting to pay him 35M per year.  I mean Nick Gordon has a better OPS than that.  If that was your standard you would need to pay nearly every player on your team 35M.  The point I was trying to make is "value".  I think given what Correa has given so far (and I stated he has time to correct the numbers) the Twins can get greater value with the 35M than what they are getting right now paying Correa 35M per year. 

Well these players get paid based on previous results put up.  So Correa has put up numbers in the past that warrants him making 35 million, like you said I hope he picks it up and can bring in similar numbers as what he did before.  But if Correa is making too much money based on his performance then guys like Miranda, Ryan, and Duran are severely under paid based on their performance.  So if you were basing salaries based on performance there probably wouldn't be a lot of money left over if you took some of Correa's cash because his performance doesnt hold up for a 35 million player at this point in time.  I mean Buxton isnt really earning his money this year also, mostly due to injury, but nonetheless they could be using his money on other things too.  I guess my main point is that if we are going to blame a player for not earning his money, then we also need to say that the guys that are over performing need to get more money which in the long run would probably even out and the Twins wouldn't have a bunch of money to spend elsewhere.

 

I mean they probably could just spend some money and fix some stuff but that doesnt really seem to be the Twins way. 

[Danchat]

38 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

Other positions… where exactly? They’re basically set everywhere except catcher and DH. Free agent pitching is one of the worst ROI in sports. 

Our strategy of not paying pitching the past two years hasn't worked out... add in signing a catcher and potentially extending any pending FAs, and there will be plenty of ways to use that $35M. 

[USAFChief]

1 hour ago, Danchat said:

Our strategy of not paying pitching the past two years hasn't worked out... add in signing a catcher and potentially extending any pending FAs, and there will be plenty of ways to use that $35M. 

Next year's C market is Contreras.

That's it.

Good case can be made Gary Sanchez is the 2nd best 2023 FA C. Maybe Christian Vazquez?

[USAFChief]

5 hours ago, darwin22 said:

Agree with your assessment.  Don't know if you or others know the answer to this?

What is the SS FA agent market for 2023?  

I'm fairly certain there are a number of SS that will be free agents in the off season.  If Correa's bat doesn't significantly improve over the next 7-8 weeks, I would be surprised if he opts out as I can't see ANY team willing to give him $30-35mill over an 8-10 years. 

https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/league-info/potential-2023-free-agents/

[Dman]

1 hour ago, Twodogs said:

Well these players get paid based on previous results put up.  So Correa has put up numbers in the past that warrants him making 35 million, like you said I hope he picks it up and can bring in similar numbers as what he did before.  But if Correa is making too much money based on his performance then guys like Miranda, Ryan, and Duran are severely under paid based on their performance.  So if you were basing salaries based on performance there probably wouldn't be a lot of money left over if you took some of Correa's cash because his performance doesnt hold up for a 35 million player at this point in time.  I mean Buxton isnt really earning his money this year also, mostly due to injury, but nonetheless they could be using his money on other things too.  I guess my main point is that if we are going to blame a player for not earning his money, then we also need to say that the guys that are over performing need to get more money which in the long run would probably even out and the Twins wouldn't have a bunch of money to spend elsewhere.

 

I mean they probably could just spend some money and fix some stuff but that doesnt really seem to be the Twins way. 

I get your point about guys just starting pretty much getting screwed monetary value wise.  It stinks and I wish there were better ways than arbitration to get younger players the money they deserve but this is the system the players and owners agreed on so here we are.

Depending on how you view WAR, Correa will probably technically earn or equal his value for money paid. So depending on ones perspective he is worth the money right now.  I think I agree that this Twins season would have been worse without him and his ability to help create a band of brothers type club house should not be understated.

That said I was expecting more from the bat and quite honestly in clutch situations.  I expected him to step up not fall back.  I expected a player with better plate discipline not swinging at balls 2 feet off the plate with two strikes.  I expected more HR power.  I expected him to lead the offense by example like Cruz did.  Maybe it is just that my expectations were too high although as I pointed out lot's of players on this team have a higher OPS than Correa. Even players that wouldn't be considered at Correa's level.

I can come with tons of reasons for why his performance is off this year.  No spring training. A really cold spring. Hit in the hand by a pitch.  COVID. He has faced a lot of adversity but he was healthy in June and looked like he was back and now the July Numbers show him back to his spring numbers.  

A team can do a lot with 35M.  While I appreciate what the Twins did in bringing him in I am not sure an eggs in one basket (a guy taking up about 25% of payroll) is a great approach unless they can perform at an elite level for the entire contract.  There are still two months for me to be more impressed but right here, right now I have to say I am disappointed in his season so far.  Whether those are fair expectations or not it seems several of us disagree and this is just my opinion it doesn't mean I am right about anything it is just honestly how I feel.

[Vanimal46]

2 hours ago, Danchat said:

Our strategy of not paying pitching the past two years hasn't worked out... add in signing a catcher and potentially extending any pending FAs, and there will be plenty of ways to use that $35M. 

What pending free agents? Carlos Correa? @USAFChiefmentioned the sobering fact that unless you want Contreras, there’s no better catchers available in free agency. So I don’t see any issue slightly over paying a SS like Correa now and next year if he decides to opt in to the 2nd $35 million year. 

[Major League Ready]

11 hours ago, KirbyDome89 said:

FA isn't a value play, so complaining about value, particularly in an apples to oranges comparison, is pointless.

What seems misguided is how you're defining failure. Would the Twins be better with Jermaine Palacios and his sub .500 OPS starting? Would spending more prospect capital at the deadline for a SS, assuming the Twins were still in the race and one was available, have been the better solution? Even if Correa is a "failure," and ends up costing more than $8.5M per WAR, he's better than the alternative. 

Correa is third on the team in WAR, but we're bemoaning the guy's AAV while team payroll is down $10M from last season, and a vast majority of the core players are some combination of young/cheap/on team friendly deals? The Twins are winning games this year, Correa is obviously a big part of that, seems far from a "recipe for failure," to me. 

Correa's AAV has nothing to do with my point which you have missed entirely, and you are focused on one half of one season (Palacios).  That would be reasonable if this thread was focused on Correa opting in for one more season and then moving on.  However, much of the discussion has centered around extending Correa which means another 6-8 years.  Focusing on one what would very likely be a 1/2 season replacement is extremely misguided but it kindly.  Then, doubling down on your bias you have elected to use a SSS of Palacios OPS in his first MLB stint.   Since going back down to AAA his OPS is 972 and he is hitting 323.  IDK how he will adapt to MLB but the suggestion he will continue to have a sub 500 OPS is ludicrous.

The most likely case scenario is that Lewis will replace Correa.  He certainly has the potential to provide as much offense as Correa or more if Correa continues to hit as he has this year.  The reasonable assumption is that the drop-off from Correa to Lewis should be minimal.  Then, if the $35M is used more efficiently, (more per WAR) and effectively ( higher need) the team will be much better off overall.  For example, a top of the rotation SP and a back of the BP ARM.  Lewis + front line starter + back of the bullpen RP >>>>> Correa.  You seem to be assuming there are no other possible uses fop the $35M being paid to Correa. I will take Lewis / Rodon and whatever BP arm we can get for whatever is left of the $35M after signing Rodon over Correa.

[cmoss84]

On 8/9/2022 at 3:07 AM, bighat said:

Correa is supposed to be among the top MLB shortstops - he should be putting up numbers like Francisco Lindor, Trea Turner, Corey Seager, and Xander Boegarts. Yes he should, yes that's absolutely what we all expected and so did the Twins. But his numbers aren't even close to what those guys are putting up.

In fact, shortstops who are having BETTER hitting seasons than Correa include Bobby Witt, Bo Bichette, Gleybar Torres, Willy Adames, Andres Jimenez, and some guy named Thairo Estrada. 

If you buy a Corvette and it runs like a reliable Honda Civic, you got a lemon. 

And yes, watching the lead dwindle to 1 game as the Twins fly out west to take on the best team in baseball is definitely adding to my bitterness on this matter. 

Point taken...just some food for thought:

Lindor hit .230 with an OPS of .734 in his first year with NY...

Also...Trea Turner is the best in the business. Seager and Boegarts having very nice years...for losing teams. The other names you mentioned are good players-and are having comparable seasons to Carlos-some on winning teams, some not so much.

I agree I would like to see him hit better the last 2 months (and hopefully playoffs). 

[RpR]

12 minutes ago, cmoss84 said:

Point taken...just some food for thought:

Lindor hit .230 with an OPS of .734 in his first year with NY...

Also...Trea Turner is the best in the business. Seager and Boegarts having very nice years...for losing teams. The other names you mentioned are good players-and are having comparable seasons to Carlos-some on winning teams, some not so much.

I agree I would like to see him hit better the last 2 months (and hopefully playoffs). 

Turners fielding stats shows he is better at 2nd base than at Short Stop, far, far, far from the best.

[cmoss84]

1 hour ago, RpR said:

Turners fielding stats shows he is better at 2nd base than at Short Stop, far, far, far from the best.

Was referring to his offense numbers. He is top 5 in the game.

[Danchat]

23 hours ago, Vanimal46 said:

What pending free agents? Carlos Correa? @USAFChiefmentioned the sobering fact that unless you want Contreras, there’s no better catchers available in free agency. So I don’t see any issue slightly over paying a SS like Correa now and next year if he decides to opt in to the 2nd $35 million year. 

I guess we don't have many pending free agents (though I wouldn't mind re-signing Fulmer), but still, Contreras would be an option if we're not getting Correa back. There are several ways to spend that $35M and I'm not convinced dropping it all into Correa is the right call, but it may not be the wrong one either.