Where Did the Good Carlos Correa Go?

[baul0010]

After watching a year of Andrelton Simmons, Correa seems like he's well worth 35 Mil.  

[KirbyDome89]

1 hour ago, Cody Pirkl said:

3-4 win players aren't bad but that's kind of what we expect from Polanco who's making considerably less money and I think we all agree is at least a tier below a Carlos Correa level player. 3-4 win players don't get 10 year contracts or 1 year deals for $35m and I'd bet if you asked Correa himself he'd tell you he's disappointed. Furthermore, Correa has accumulated his offensive numbers in a similar way to what makes fans so angry about guys like Buxton and Sano by doing it in white hot streaks followed by nothing. He was on fire in May and June now as the season hits crunch time with a 1 game lead in the division he's actually hurt the offense by providing so little at the top of the lineup.

 

It might be a trend and I wouldn't be disappointed to have him opt back in next year. I think that becomes more and more likely if he continues playing the way he has for the last month plus.

 

28 minutes ago, Cody Pirkl said:

He isn't playing to his contract though. Fangraphs has him at $13.3m in value on his $35m contract as noted in the article.

Correa was a FA signing; that's an automatic overpay. Using a contract Polanco negotiated to buy out arbitration years as a baseline for 3-4 WAR production isn't remotely fair. Fangraphs also has the cost per WAR in FA this year at $8.5M, so if Correa gets to that 4 WAR mark the Twins are essentially getting what they paid for. I also expected more from Correa to this point, but I wouldn't call him a big disappointment.

[USAFChief]

18 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Might have to do with the .190 BABIP from July 1st to now...

And the .190 BABIP might have to do with a lotta 3 hoppers to short and soft fly balls to shallow right.

[bean5302]

Just now, USAFChief said:

And the .190 BABIP might have to do with a lotta 3 hoppers to short and soft fly balls to shallow right.

The good 'ol eye/memory test, eh?

He's at 38.6% hard hit and 9.6% barrel rate over the time span Statcast-wise. Average EV isn't great at 87.6mph, but he's also smoked a few balls with a 100mph blast off the bat in more than 1/2 the games he's played.

Correa's not been elite over his past 28 games, but he's been a lot better than a .190 BABIP. He's been unlucky. Over a relatively short time span, it happens, and I expect he'll rebound yet again before having another slump, before having another hot streak, and so on and so on.

It doesn't matter because Correa is definitely opting out at the end of the year unless he's seriously injured.

[darwin22]

2 hours ago, Dman said:

I don't think anyone is saying he is bad or a poor player but this is a guy running around looking to be paid like an elite player and right now his replacement in Houston has more WAR than he does.  If Lewis can do something similar I would love to put that 35 million to better use.

Absolutely agree!  I know my age is showing but I still think RBI is a relevant stat.  Right now, Correa has a meager 37 on the season, which ranks deep in the bottom of everyday SS across the league.  When you trail 5'10 180 lb Tommy Edman (who has 38 and a very good player with a ton more speed) in RBI your argument to be paid top $$ rings very hollow.

[se7799]

2 hours ago, Cody Pirkl said:

I don't think it's useful to compare players to their counterparts on a 2021 Twins team that finished in last place. Especially in the case of Simmons if you're going to use that as the baseline you'll almost never be disappointed with any players' performance.

 

I get that these players are human and have ups and downs but bottom line in a season where the Twins are missing a ton of players in a tight division race, it's disappointing what their $35m superstar shortstop has contributed which is virtually nothing since June. I have a feeling people won't be very laid back about Correa continuing to drag the top of the lineup down if the team falls out of the playoff picture.

I have a feeling that will not happen.  So I guess we see whos feeling is right?

[se7799]

Wow...so fans consider him a bust?  Ya...thats being reasonable.  I guess I differ on the meaning of a bust.

[gman]

I wonder how much of his hitting decline is due to the deflated baseball in use this year?

[Danchat]

IMO he's been worth more around $20-25M so far. Great to have at SS, but his bat has been streakier than I expected. I wouldn't be shocked if things clicked going down the stretch and his bat heats up... but I'd also rather not be the team that gives him a 8 year deal. I'd rather put that money into other positions and rely on Lewis and Palacios for the future of the position. But I wouldn't hate to have Correa opt back in for 2023.

[RpR]

2 hours ago, Cody Pirkl said:

I don't think Polanco was going to play shortstop under any circumstances, they've made it abundantly clear that he's just a second baseman now. FWIW Correa is actually having his worst defensive season of his career by just about every metric since he was a rookie. I also don't think you pay $35m for any player unless you think they're a difference maker on defense AND offense.

 

The Twins have shown in the past, without a good defense, offense is nullified; the Twins needed/need the latter greatly.

[bighat]

2 hours ago, Dman said:

The problem for me is he wants to be paid for providing elite production so when he doesn't give you that then maybe it is better to spread that money around to improve WAR in other areas.  Maybe he will be elite again next year hard to say but if Lewis can come in and get even close to those numbers and the 35 MIL can buy you 4 more WAR somewhere else I think you do that instead.  If he wants to be paid like an All-Star he needs to produce like one.  Right now Bogarts has more than double Correa;s WAR.  If it stays that way he looks like the more consistent player and more likely to get the big payday.  Correa is asking to be treated like an elite player so he needs to produce like one year in and year out or settle for a smaller AAV contract.

This is exactly where I'm at. 

Correa is essentially a slightly-to-somewhat above average player this year. I don't mind having an above average player on my team, but that's not what we expected from Correa.

The Twins signed perhaps the most coveted free agent of the '22 season, a guy who was going to be the foundation for this team this season. And he's got 13 HR and 37 RBI as we head into mid-August. 

Unless something else is coming from Correa - and I don't see any reason to believe there is - he's a been a major disappointment and didn't deliver as advertised. 

[Loosey]

If Correa continues to have a down season for the remainder of the year and the Twins still make the playoffs and dare I say, Advance a round even with Correa playing below his standards will he not opt out?  I'd take that as a Twins fan and hope years 2-3 are vintage Correa.

[PseudoSABR]

How much of his contract would we have to eat in order to trade him?

[Craig Arko]

If he’s there for and plays well in the playoffs, this will all be forgotten.

[twins_89]

I think the judgement on Correa could still go either way. If Correa gets hot for the last 54 games and the Twins make the playoffs, his signing will look OK. If he struggles to hit and the team misses the postseason, he will land on the growing list of Twins free agent signings who have been significantly worse than expected.

[BH67]

Several people jumped on me yesterday for suggesting Correa merited a day off. Now I see several people trying to explain that Correa is a bust, which if true suggests that a day off might actually help both him and the Twins.

Is it worth this much emotion to see-saw wildly about our vicarious connection to a baseball team, or its players, or their salaries? Or their launch angles? Or their BABIP aberrations? Some folks apparently need the Twins to "succeed" to make their lives mean something, but if that success comes up short of an American League pennant then it's "not successful enough".

It's baseball. A game.

 

[DocBauer]

Look, I like the guy. I've become a fan. He's been gracious, hard working, team oriented and a leader. And even while his defensive stats are down, I've loved watching him play SS and he's made a real difference there.

But his offense has not been anything close to what was expected by the FO, I'm sure, or fans. or Correa himself I'd bet. Slow start, hit streak, then slow again. Hey, maybe it's just a weird year for him due to the one injury and covid break. I don't know. Guy might just RAKE next year for the Twins or someone else. And he has time to get hot the last month and a half plus and make everyone eat their opinions. 

But as of now, his numbers simply aren't that of a SUPERSTAR $35M player. They just aren't. And past and future doesn't speak to NOW. And the now is his bat has disappointed based on expectation. Now, past leads us to believe what he's capable of doing yet again. But the OP and what we're discussing is the player he is in 2022. And that player is not a $35M superstar.

 

 

[tony&rodney]

Is it possible that fans have become far too obsessed with a player's salary? The Twins have shown, repeatedly, that they will spend money to their budget. The year and players available are the puzzle pieces that get put together to complete the roster each year. This last iteration included a big chunk of the budget left unspent and a player, Correa, fell into their lap. I expected that the Twins could afford a budget of $150 million for 2022 but $135 million is fair. We should likely expect the same next year as well. If Correa stays, there is less to spend. If he leaves, other opportunities can be surveyed. It is not so easy to hit on those choices. For this year and the near future, Correa fits.

Now, it may be true that Carlos Correa has not been a statistical superstar thus far this year but he has been a good player. That cannot be refuted. While I am willing to live with Jermaine Palacios next year if Carlos Correa opts out of his contract, I would not really expect that his play would equal the work of Correa at shortstop. Andrelton Simmons was a magician at shortstop for Atlanta and the Angels but the guy we saw last year and who was released after hitting less than .100 for the Cubs minor league team and struggling in the field was ready for the  Senior Mens League circuit. He still had it for two games per week when lucky. Simmons was a great player, Correa is still good. Forget the money for a few moments and appreciate the routine plays as well as those good plays that Correa has made thus far this year. I'm a little disappointed in the performances of Correa, Buxton, Polanco, and Kepler and was sad to see that Sano, Duffey, and Smith were finished. Nevertheless, if we are going to pick teams, I'm still choosing to like Carlos Correa and all of the skills he can bring to the table. 

[h2oface]

6 hours ago, RpR said:

As compared to what?

Simmons, when he was the best of the best had up and down years; Correa is still in his twenties you expect him not to be a normal human being with ups and downs?

Ozzie Smith the best Short Stop in my life time, did not hit his offensive peak till he was 30.

Compared to expected performance comparable to last year and worthy of $35 million for the year. 

[RpR]

35 minutes ago, h2oface said:

Compared to expected performance comparable to last year and worthy of $35 million for the year. 

Then every player who has not equaled or exceeded the year before is an absolute failure; any one who compares another's performance by one single year of many is narrow minded and will never be pleased.

[Squirrel]

7 hours ago, bighat said:

Dude's on pace for 16 HRs and 52 RBI this season. There are really no excuses - it's been a down year for him, and Twins fans and management have every right to be disappointed in his performance. 

Let's admit it: he's been a bust. 

Well, I think that's an over statement. He's not a bust. His bat is certainly in a down year, but I still think he's been a plus player on the team this year

[h2oface]

1 hour ago, RpR said:

Then every player who has not equaled or exceeded the year before is an absolute failure; any one who compares another's performance by one single year of many is narrow minded and will never be pleased.

Whoa! How did we get from "compared to what" (your question) and a comparable performance to last year...... to an absolute failure? Whoa. That is a huge leap. I didn't and won't go there. I know that the FO was certainly hoping for more with what they forked out. I would take a couple of other years, too. Of course he is not an absolute failure. I sure wish, as many others do, that he was having a much better year, though. I bet Correa wishes he was having a much better year, too. Correa holds a high bar, especially since he is paid around 25% of the teams salary. I would say more but I have used up all my accused narrow mind's capacity, and I have a Garden Party to go to..........

[cmoss84]

This is baseball (and all other sports) every year. Some players are over paid. Some are under paid... according to their stats.

But then...there's winning and losing. Would we be in a position to win the division without him? Not so sure...

[h2oface]

7 minutes ago, cmoss84 said:

This is baseball (and all other sports) every year. Some players are over paid. Some are under paid... according to their stats.

But then...there's winning and losing. Would we be in a position to win the division without him? Not so sure...

Maybe if we spent the $35 million with 25 of it going to Verlander (or say 30 to get him away from Houston), the extra on other better pitching than we did, and bet on Royce Lewis to play short and not had him in center to run into the wall........ we might have been in a better position. That's another bet. But I think we all just hope that Correa gets hot and actually carries the team the rest of the year and wins some playoff games. One can hope.......

[mikelink45]

We signed him, we pay him.  I don't care.  The Twins are in first place and I want him to lead the rest of the way to the playoffs!

 

[terrydactyls]

A total bust?  No.

A great disappointment?  No.

A horrible signing?  No 

A big success?  No. 

So I guess what I'm thinking is that his performance has been a little short of expectations but he will opt-in for 2023 to prove he deserves a big contract.  Sounds good to me.

 

 

 

[Monkeypaws]

!@#$% this.

I feel like I am being trolled here.

Correa has been a great add to this team. Superstar for the money? Nope. However, without him I think this was a losing season.

Stopgap or long-term, still an amazing move by the front office, to give this injury riddled team a chance of relevance. Remember where the Twins finished in 2021.

[cmoss84]

3 hours ago, h2oface said:

Maybe if we spent the $35 million with 25 of it going to Verlander (or say 30 to get him away from Houston), the extra on other better pitching than we did, and bet on Royce Lewis to play short and not had him in center to run into the wall........ we might have been in a better position. That's another bet. But I think we all just hope that Correa gets hot and actually carries the team the rest of the year and wins some playoff games. One can hope.......

You may very well be correct on all points. However:

1) Verlander signing with the Twins was/is highly doubtful (for numerous reasons).

2) I'm one of the few who voted the trade deadline as a front office "C." Pitching, especially RP, could have been acquired much more efficiently. SPs are very hit and miss in FA.

[bighat]

8 hours ago, Squirrel said:

Well, I think that's an over statement. He's not a bust. His bat is certainly in a down year, but I still think he's been a plus player on the team this year

Correa is supposed to be among the top MLB shortstops - he should be putting up numbers like Francisco Lindor, Trea Turner, Corey Seager, and Xander Boegarts. Yes he should, yes that's absolutely what we all expected and so did the Twins. But his numbers aren't even close to what those guys are putting up.

In fact, shortstops who are having BETTER hitting seasons than Correa include Bobby Witt, Bo Bichette, Gleybar Torres, Willy Adames, Andres Jimenez, and some guy named Thairo Estrada. 

If you buy a Corvette and it runs like a reliable Honda Civic, you got a lemon. 

And yes, watching the lead dwindle to 1 game as the Twins fly out west to take on the best team in baseball is definitely adding to my bitterness on this matter. 

[dxpavelka]

Perfectly willing to see the ''real" Correa show up in October.