Where Did the Good Carlos Correa Go?

[Ted Schwerzler]

The Minnesota Twins signed Carlos Correa to a three-year deal this offseason that paid him the highest average annual value ever among infielders ($35.1 million). Despite the massive fanfare and top highlights, it’s looking like quite the flop at this point. Where did the good version of their shortstop go?

First, to put things into context, it’s worth noting that Correa has seen significant highs this season. He also still owns a 124 OPS+ which puts him well above league average offensively. As a shortstop, his arm remains among the best in the game and he’s been an anchor on the dirt while Minnesota has largely been terrible there defensively.

What once trended so positively has taken such a negative turn, however.

It’s been a weird progression for the former Houston Astro. Correa owned just a .633 OPS through the first month of the season, and then was hit by a pitch that had a significant amount of time being missed looking likely. That was particularly troublesome due to how he was trending at the time. In eight games before his finger injury, Correa was 14-for-34 with three doubles and a dinger.

He wound up missing 12 games and then pushed himself to near All-Star status. From May 18 through the end of June, a stretch of 32 games, Correa slashed .336/.400/.560 with seven doubles and seven homers. Largely unsustainable, that’s every bit the player Minnesota thought they were getting when signing him to such a mega deal. During that period, it looked increasingly likely that Correa would opt out of his three-year deal and angle towards a longer-term extension.

Since that point, it’s been nothing but the opposite. In 28 games from July 1 through August 8, Correa has slashed a paltry .186/.294/.333. He has just three doubles and four home runs in that span while still being relied upon near the top of the Twins lineup. It’s certainly not feasible for this slide to continue if Minnesota wants to remain atop the AL Central division, and this production progressing for a few more months certainly hurts and ability to corner the market in looking for a new deal.

By fWAR, Correa has yet to surpass 2.0 on the season which would mark only the first time it’s happened during the course of his career. Playing at a career-worst clip while trying to generate another payday is probably not a great strategy. In return on investment terms, Fangraphs values Correa’s production has been worth $13.3 million thus far in 2022, or less than half of what Minnesota has already committed to him.

Taking a look at the two rolling windows of differing production, there’s some obvious difference. During the May through June stretch, Correa had a 36.5% hard-hit rate with a 14.6% barrel percentage. He was chasing just over 30% of the time, but whiffing only 9.6% of the time. Fast forward to where we are now and the hard hit rate has dropped 4% with the barrel rate down 5%. He’s actually chasing and missing less, which suggests an issue regarding the quality of contact.

While he’s been going poorly, Correa has put the ball on the ground 45.8% of the time. He’s pulled it a bit less and utilized the middle more, but his line drive rate sits at a sad 13.3%. This all comes on an average launch angle of 11.8 degrees. The difference here is minute, but could be creating the issue. When Correa was going well he owned a 12.2-degree launch angle and was hitting line drives over 20% of the time. Nearly 50% of his contact was to the pull side.

This is something Twins teammate Max Kepler has seen at times as well. The idea of lifting the baseball and hitting for power doesn’t necessarily have to translate into homers. Correa is the prototypical power guy that doesn’t have to sacrifice misses. He bludgeons doubles and routinely sends the ball out. Pulling it down the left field line at Target Field is the easiest path for him to walk the bases. A slight amount of additional lift for Correa changes things from being a hard grounder to a hard line drive. One of those two outcomes has a substantially better success rate.

We’ve now seen Correa go through a period of poor hitting largely equivalent to the time he spent insanely hot. The hope would be that the final stretch is another window of production. It would definitely increase the Twins outlook towards the postseason, and ultimately for the Scott Boras client, is the only way he’ll be able to position himself handsomely back on the open market.

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[RpR]

As compared to what?

Simmons, when he was the best of the best had up and down years; Correa is still in his twenties you expect him not to be a normal human being with ups and downs?

Ozzie Smith the best Short Stop in my life time, did not hit his offensive peak till he was 30.

[Dman]

I really do love Correa's leadership and supportive presence but I am down on his bat so far this year.  For all the playoff clutch stats he hasn't looked that clutch to me this season.  Seems like he is K'ing in the clutch more than getting on base.  I much prefer Arraez and Miranda and possibly even Gordon being up as opposed to Correa right now.  

Honestly if this is his level of production I would prefer Lewis in that spot.  I don't think Lewis's production would be much worse and he is much, much cheaper.  Correa has a couple more months to impress but time is running out.  If he wants that mega contract he needs to prove he still has "it".  Right now I don't see "it".

[theBOMisthebomb]

It would be nice to thread the needle with Correa not setting the world on fire the rest of 2022, the Twins still making a long playoff run with Correa's legendary playoff production leading the way, topped off by Correa returning to the Twins in 2023 because he can't get a better offer. 

[bunsen82]

Since when is a 3-4 WAR player considered a poor player?  If Correa hits 4 WAR he will be worth 34 million dollars.   No offense this is pretty good productions.  Point two is check out Correa stats.  He historically has an excellent season followed by a good to great season.  This seems to follow that trend.  If we can get an extra season out of this contract all the better.  

[MABB1959]

I would rather have Correa than anyone else.

[Dman]

1 hour ago, bunsen82 said:

Since when is a 3-4 WAR player considered a poor player?  If Correa hits 4 WAR he will be worth 34 million dollars.   No offense this is pretty good productions.  Point two is check out Correa stats.  He historically has an excellent season followed by a good to great season.  This seems to follow that trend.  If we can get an extra season out of this contract all the better.  

I don't think anyone is saying he is bad or a poor player but this is a guy running around looking to be paid like an elite player and right now his replacement in Houston has more WAR than he does.  If Lewis can do something similar I would love to put that 35 million to better use.

[RpR]

8 minutes ago, Dman said:

I don't think anyone is saying he is bad or poor player but this is a guy running around looking to paid like an elite player and right now his replacement in Houston has more WAR than he does.  If Lewis can do something similar I would love to put that 35 million to better use.

Gee, Rod Carew only had an OPS of .736 when he was 25, should have traded him.

[Dman]

Just now, RpR said:

Gee, Rod Carew only had an OPS of .736 when he was 25, should have traded him.

Rod Carew wasn't costing\asking for 35M per year.

[bighat]

Dude's on pace for 16 HRs and 52 RBI this season. There are really no excuses - it's been a down year for him, and Twins fans and management have every right to be disappointed in his performance. 

Let's admit it: he's been a bust. 

[4twinsJA]

I agree with some discontent, Correa is a very good leader for Twins and defense has been very good, but hitting is subpar for him. It is my understanding is his contract has a player option for next year, why would he opt out, he is never going to get $35M on open market unless he has massive upswing in production the last 2 months of season. Looks like Correa will be a Twin next year to me, unless Twins can pull off an offseason trade.

[RpR]

3 minutes ago, bighat said:

Dude's on pace for 16 HRs and 52 RBI this season. There are really no excuses - it's been a down year for him, and Twins fans and management have every right to be disappointed in his performance. 

Let's admit it: he's been a bust. 

So he will only hit 3 home runs for the rest of the season - Shizzam!

[Dman]

1 minute ago, 4twinsJA said:

I agree with some discontent, Correa is a very good leader for Twins and defense has been very good, but hitting is subpar for him. It is my understanding is his contract has a player option for next year, why would he opt out, he is never going to get $35M on open market unless he has massive upswing in production the last 2 months of season. Looks like Correa will be a Twin next year to me, unless Twins can pull off an offseason trade.

Yeah he really needs to up his game at the plate or he will never get what he wants on the market.  He will need another prove it year.  He still has time to turn this around but he better get it together soon if he wants that big contract. His defense is down from last year, offense down from last year.  If things stay the same I think there is a good chance he is a Twin again next year.  

[Cody Pirkl]

57 minutes ago, RpR said:

As compared to what?

Simmons, when he was the best of the best had up and down years; Correa is still in his twenties you expect him not to be a normal human being with ups and downs?

Ozzie Smith the best Short Stop in my life time, did not hit his offensive peak till he was 30.

I don't think it's useful to compare players to their counterparts on a 2021 Twins team that finished in last place. Especially in the case of Simmons if you're going to use that as the baseline you'll almost never be disappointed with any players' performance.

 

I get that these players are human and have ups and downs but bottom line in a season where the Twins are missing a ton of players in a tight division race, it's disappointing what their $35m superstar shortstop has contributed which is virtually nothing since June. I have a feeling people won't be very laid back about Correa continuing to drag the top of the lineup down if the team falls out of the playoff picture.

[Cody Pirkl]

56 minutes ago, bunsen82 said:

Since when is a 3-4 WAR player considered a poor player?  If Correa hits 4 WAR he will be worth 34 million dollars.   No offense this is pretty good productions.  Point two is check out Correa stats.  He historically has an excellent season followed by a good to great season.  This seems to follow that trend.  If we can get an extra season out of this contract all the better.  

3-4 win players aren't bad but that's kind of what we expect from Polanco who's making considerably less money and I think we all agree is at least a tier below a Carlos Correa level player. 3-4 win players don't get 10 year contracts or 1 year deals for $35m and I'd bet if you asked Correa himself he'd tell you he's disappointed. Furthermore, Correa has accumulated his offensive numbers in a similar way to what makes fans so angry about guys like Buxton and Sano by doing it in white hot streaks followed by nothing. He was on fire in May and June now as the season hits crunch time with a 1 game lead in the division he's actually hurt the offense by providing so little at the top of the lineup.

 

It might be a trend and I wouldn't be disappointed to have him opt back in next year. I think that becomes more and more likely if he continues playing the way he has for the last month plus.

[RpR]

1 minute ago, Cody Pirkl said:

3-4 win players aren't bad but that's kind of what we expect from Polanco who's making considerably less money and I think we all agree is at least a tier below a Carlos Correa level player. 3-4 win players don't get 10 year contracts or 1 year deals for $35m and I'd bet if you asked Correa himself he'd tell you he's disappointed. Furthermore, Correa has accumulated his offensive numbers in a similar way to what makes fans so angry about guys like Buxton and Sano by doing it in white hot streaks followed by nothing. He was on fire in May and June now as the season hits crunch time with a 1 game lead in the division he's actually hurt the offense by providing so little at the top of the lineup.

 

It might be a trend and I wouldn't be disappointed to have him opt back in next year. I think that becomes more and more likely if he continues playing the way he has for the last month plus.

I said it in another thread, Correa was not given the money for his bat; or Polanco would be at Short Stop and they would have bought one of the best Second Basemen in the League.

[Cody Pirkl]

5 minutes ago, RpR said:

I said it in another thread, Correa was not given the money for his bat; or Polanco would be at Short Stop and they would have bought one of the best Second Basemen in the League.

I don't think Polanco was going to play shortstop under any circumstances, they've made it abundantly clear that he's just a second baseman now. FWIW Correa is actually having his worst defensive season of his career by just about every metric since he was a rookie. I also don't think you pay $35m for any player unless you think they're a difference maker on defense AND offense.

 

[Thebigalguy]

If he can get back on track against the Dodgers, all is forgiven. This is the week when first place is on the line.

[bunsen82]

43 minutes ago, Dman said:

I don't think anyone is saying he is bad or a poor player but this is a guy running around looking to be paid like an elite player and right now his replacement in Houston has more WAR than he does.  If Lewis can do something similar I would love to put that 35 million to better use.

But he is playing to his contract and people are acting like he is playing poor.  He is not playing poor, He is still likely in the top 15% of all players, he is just not in the top 1-2% like he has had in a few seasons.  A lot of things have to go right to get those types of seasons.  

[TwinsAce]

1 hour ago, Dman said:

I really do love Correa's leadership and supportive presence but I am down on his bat so far this year.  For all the playoff clutch stats he hasn't looked that clutch to me this season.  Seems like he is K'ing in the clutch more than getting on base.  I much prefer Arraez and Miranda and possibly even Gordon being up as opposed to Correa right now.  

Honestly if this is his level of production I would prefer Lewis in that spot.  I don't think Lewis's production would be much worse and he is much, much cheaper.  Correa has a couple more months to impress but time is running out.  If he wants that mega contract he needs to prove he still has "it".  Right now I don't see "it".

I noticed this a few weeks back when looking at Correa's baseball reference page.

His "clutch" stats during the regular season are actually pretty low in his career.  It seems that his "clutch skill" has been more focused in the playoffs vs. regular season.

On the flip side, it is possible these numbers are still pretty good compared to the average "clutch" stats.  sOPS+ I think addresses this, in which case his "Late & Close" for 2022 is 125, so surprisingly good.  Seems his biggest issue this year has been RISP and also 2 outs.  Sure would be nice if that evened out a bit.

(Also odd - June is his favorite month by far in his career. .969 OPS vs. career OPS of .831.)

First picture below is career, second is current season.

[Cody Pirkl]

14 minutes ago, bunsen82 said:

But he is playing to his contract and people are acting like he is playing poor.  He is not playing poor, He is still likely in the top 15% of all players, he is just not in the top 1-2% like he has had in a few seasons.  A lot of things have to go right to get those types of seasons.  

He isn't playing to his contract though. Fangraphs has him at $13.3m in value on his $35m contract as noted in the article.

[Dman]

15 minutes ago, bunsen82 said:

But he is playing to his contract and people are acting like he is playing poor.  He is not playing poor, He is still likely in the top 15% of all players, he is just not in the top 1-2% like he has had in a few seasons.  A lot of things have to go right to get those types of seasons.  

The problem for me is he wants to be paid for providing elite production so when he doesn't give you that then maybe it is better to spread that money around to improve WAR in other areas.  Maybe he will be elite again next year hard to say but if Lewis can come in and get even close to those numbers and the 35 MIL can buy you 4 more WAR somewhere else I think you do that instead.  If he wants to be paid like an All-Star he needs to produce like one.  Right now Bogarts has more than double Correa;s WAR.  If it stays that way he looks like the more consistent player and more likely to get the big payday.  Correa is asking to be treated like an elite player so he needs to produce like one year in and year out or settle for a smaller AAV contract.

[USAFChief]

8 minutes ago, Cody Pirkl said:

He isn't playing to his contract though. Fangraphs has him at $13.3m in value on his $35m contract as noted in the article.

And if one believes in WAR, fangraphs has him tied for the 143rd most valuable player in baseball, 5th on the Twins. Behind Max Kepler.

 

[PDX Twin]

There are so many differences: (1) He is playing in a much more spacious park, where he won't get as many cheap extra-base hits. (2) He does not have a killer lineup surrounding him, where he is just one of many top hitters. (3) He does not have anyone banging on a can to tell him about curve balls. (4) He does not have Verlander and company to make sure that his offensive production leads to lots of wins.

Unfortunately, he is not a Strat-o-Matic card that works the same regardless of environment.

[Cody Pirkl]

1 minute ago, USAFChief said:

And if one believes in WAR, fangraphs has him tied for the 143rd most valuable player in baseball, 5th on the Twins. Behind Max Kepler.

Yup, and for what it's worth I don't blame anyone for not putting their complete trust in bWAR or fWAR. One thing I think everyone should agree on however is that he's been a fairly big disappointment.

[TwinsDr2021]

12 minutes ago, bunsen82 said:

But he is playing to his contract and people are acting like he is playing poor.  He is not playing poor, He is still likely in the top 15% of all players, he is just not in the top 1-2% like he has had in a few seasons.  A lot of things have to go right to get those types of seasons.  

Poor is relative, is he playing like Sano, absolutely not. So he isn't playing poor, but he isn't playing to the standard of a guy making $35 million either. He is 51st in ESPN WAR for non-pitchers. After being #1 last year, in 19 and 20 he was 51st and 79th, and in 18 he was 156th. After being 41st, 16th and 11th his first three years, so maybe last year was the outlier and this year and the three previous to last year is the real Correa, I would rather have him than just about anybody but else at SS, but that $35 million will hang over his head.

If he finishes around 4 WAR or less, I see his only real option as not opting out next year. I can't see anybody giving him the contract he wants with only 2 of the last 5 years with a WAR over 3 and one amazing one.

 

[USAFChief]

2 minutes ago, Cody Pirkl said:

 One thing I think everyone should agree on however is that he's been a fairly big disappointment.

I can't speak for everyone, but he's certainly been something of a disappointment to me.

He IS a damn good defensive SS though. I certainly haven't been disappointed there.

 But low- to mid-700s OPS? 

That's not what I was hoping for.

[TwinsDr2021]

15 minutes ago, Dman said:

Right now Bogarts has more than double Correa;s WAR.  If it stays that way he looks like the more consistent player and more likely to get the big payday.  Correa is asking to be treated like an elite player so he needs to produce like one year in and year out or settle for a smaller AAV contract.

Since 2015 (ESPN-WAR) Correa has 32.5, Bogaerts has 29,5, but since 2018 Correa has 16.1 and Bogaerts 19. Bogaerts is two years older.

Maybe Correa gets a big offer next year, but I think he will take $35 from the Twins next year to prove again he deserves a bigger contract.

But never under estimate Boras, he gets teams to do stupid stuff all the time.

[lukeduke1980]

When guys have prolonged slumps it usually comes out after the season that they were nursing a sore something.   That said, if he ends season with 50 rbis and a handful of playoff wins, all is forgiven

[bean5302]

Might have to do with the .190 BABIP from July 1st to now...