Twins Acquire Tyler Mahle from Reds

[PseudoSABR]

14 minutes ago, 2wins87 said:

Compared to the Berrios trade, you could probably say it's fairly similar.

It's not though. Austin Martin and SWR were both top 100 guys at the time (with some having Martin very high).  Maybe Steer is a top 100 guy...

[bighat]

Ooof.

Steer and Hajjar would have been OK, but losing Encarnacion-Strand also is a real punch in the gut. I was hoping other teams were asleep on his incredible rise through the system, but of course they weren't.

As others have said, you gotta give up something to get something. So here we are.

Hope this Mahle guy can pitch 7 innings because we still need bullpen help!

[Minny505]

7 minutes ago, spanman2 said:

In no particular order beyond '22...you could have Mahle/Gray/Maeda/Ryan/Ober/Paddack in line for starting 5 competition...Archer/Bundy in the mix...assuming all are under contract...gotta give up talent which they did but we needed a solid starter which by all accounts he is.  

That is a solid rotation. Plus Dobnak and Winder for depth. 

But I would be shocked if either Bundy or Archer are back for 2023 after this trade. 

Well, they may be back, but their options will not be picked up. I could see Archer on a MLB contract if he agrees to go to the pen. When/if Winder or Ober returns and they have five better SP than Archer, I kind of hope Baldelli just makes the kind of hard decision managers of the best teams make, and just send him to the bullpen, a la Dave Roberts and the Dodgers with Maeda. 

While Archer is the better pitcher, Bundy is probably the better starter, and should retain his standing in the rotation over Archer for the remainder of 2022.

[rv78]

All are seeing the cost involved when the FO doesn't spend money for quality Free Agents in the off-season. You're going to pay, one way or the other. The only silver lining is that both Mahle and Lopez are under team control for 2023. 

[Yoke]

Hate to give up such solid prospects, but you can’t get decent pitchers for free. Miranda doing so well helps, too. Hopefully it pays off.

 

Also, the rotation for next year is lining up to be pretty solid.

[se7799]

4 minutes ago, gunnarthor said:

It's a fair trade with the potential to really blow up in our faces in a few years. CES is a tough pill, I really liked him. But Mahle is instantly our best starter and we really needed help. I still think our pitching isn't good enough but they did upgrade it quite a bit today.

Well thankyou for that insight....honestly any trade could blow up in anyone's face.  Does that mean don't trade?  I'm not sure the point of the obvious is.

[Doctor Gast]

CES is a good bat & Steer is good on both sides but both are redundant. A very good trade to fill a big hole.

 

[se7799]

6 minutes ago, bighat said:

Ooof.

Steer and Hajjar would have been OK, but losing Encarnacion-Strand also is a real punch in the gut. I was hoping other teams were asleep on his incredible rise through the system, but of course they weren't.

As others have said, you gotta give up something to get something. So here we are.

Hope this Mahle guy can pitch 7 innings because we still need bullpen help!

Well I can promise the pitcher we gave up was never going to pitch 7 innings...

[Thegrin]

This is a wonderful day   and maybe we can get some catching help???

[RJA]

It looks like the Twins decided to trade from a position of strength, infielders, to get a front line starter.  I agree with those who think Mahle is better than he has showed due to the crazy numbers he had at home.  I would think he is a solid number 2.  He is a positive addition.  From the Twins point of view, with Miranda, Polanco, Lewis, Arraez, Urshela (for now) and soon Lee, and a bit down the road Rodriguez, they are still in good shape in the infield, even when Correa departs.  What concerns me most is losing Povich, Hajjar, and the two young arms in the Lopez trade.  But, at least the FO is working to get better, and they have improved the team next year as well.  

[MMMordabito]

The Reds just dealt Drury to the Padres.  At what point do Joey Votto and Jonathan India get assigned to the Louisville Bats, and the Reds become their AAA affiliate.

[2wins87]

3 minutes ago, PseudoSABR said:

It's not though. Austin Martin and SWR were both top 100 guys at the time (with some having Martin very high).  Maybe Steer is a top 100 guy...

Ok fine, I would say it's fairly similar even if it doesn't look that way on paper according to the lists by national publications.

Most of the lists have not really been heavily updated since March.  Martin was ranked very high on some lists at the beginning of the season but he was already having a bit of a slower start than hoped.  He probably should have been viewed around #50 where he ended up at the end of the season.  Steer is on the rise and I would not be surprised to see him around #50 on some lists coming into 2023.

CES will likely be more of a bubble guy on the outside of the top 100, but paired with a solid arm, I don't think it's unreasonable to put a similar value to SWR last year, maybe just a bit lower.

The main point is that the Twins are trading risers for Mahle while the Blue Jays traded a guy who was trending down a bit and a guy who was having a bit of a hiatus in his development because of the Olympics.

[BH67]

Two prudent risks taken today.  I'm fine if Falvine stops here.

[Brandon]

While the cost is high at least 2 of those picks were at a position of no need.  We have plenty of middle IF depth so now Steer can go and replace Drury who was traded and be up in the bigs at any moment.

Encarnation-Strand would be blocked as well  plus our first round draft pick will be able to replace these guys as future depth piece while Polanco, Lewis, Arraez, and Miranda all man 2B, SS, 3B .....

Hajjar could haunt but that is the price to play.  I am totally happy with this trade from this perspective.  if we can get one more reliever that is good then we can win this deadline and at this point we pretty much have based on the caliber of players we acquired so far.  

[Dman]

Like all trades it is a bittersweet result.  I was fine giving up Steer he was going to need to be added to the 40 man and there wasn't a ton of room to play him and there are guys coming up behind him.  Hajjar is a nice arm but a ways a way and I think there is reliever risk there.  Always hate losing good lefties of which the Twins now have virtually none left.  The gut punch though is Strand.  He doesn't need to be added for a while and he has those Miranda bat to ball skills that likely will make him an elite hitter.  He could be the Reds next Joey Votto IMO.  I really think he might be that good.  If they hadn't included him I would right as rain with this trade but IMO they got hijacked on this one.

I sure hope Mahle is as good as advertised because Cinci got a haul there.  Can't say the Twins are not in it to win it with two very good pitchers added to the roster.  I sure hope these moves pay off short and longer term. Man that must have been one heck of a draft in 2021 as other teams picked 4 of the 5 players off of it already.

[purplesoldier4u]

29 minutes ago, Five minute major said:

Wow.   We gave up way too much for him. I think Christian Encarnacion Strand is going to be a stud at the MLB level iin a few years.  But this team, which is going nowhere in the playoffs, was pressured into this by short sighted fans and media.   At least there is a couple years of control but I think we are going to rue the day we gave away CES.   I understand that you have to pay for a pitcher like this but this was too much.    

Disagree. Prospects are just that and you must sacrifice something to get something. I believe the team could have made these moves hurt less, had they done them a couple of weeks ago, but I'm glad they did it and are looking forward.

Hey, make it to the playoffs and anything can happen. Teams like the Yankees, Dodgers, Red Sox, etc. can maintain the pressure, but a team like the Padres cannot and they are going all in this season. The Twins have now put a stick in the parenthetical window, thus giving them a couple of more years to keep it open.

Let's rock this, MF'ers!

[bunsen82]

1 minute ago, Dman said:

Like all trades it is a bittersweet result.  I was fine giving up Steer he was going to need to be added to the 40 man and there wasn't a ton of room to play him and there are guys coming up behind him.  Hajjar is a nice arm but a ways a way and I think there is reliever risk there.  Always hate losing good lefties of which the Twins now have virtually none left.  The gut punch though is Strand.  He doesn't need to be added for a while and he has those Miranda bat to ball skills that likely will make him an elite hitter.  He could be the Reds next Joey Votto IMO.  I really think he might be that good.  If they hadn't included him I would right as rain with this trade but IMO they got hijacked on this one.

I sure hope Mahle is as good as advertised because Cinci got a haul there.  Can't say the Twins are not in it to win it with two very good pitchers added to the roster.  I sure hope these moves pay off short and longer term. Man that must have been one heck of a draft in 2021 as other teams picked 4 of the 5 players off of it already.

The first four picks along with Steer and a couple flyers netted us Gray, Mahle and Lopez.  2 starters and a closer with decent control.   

[bean5302]

Honestly, these moves feel like they signal a do or die situation for the front office. Hopefully, Mahle is the exceedingly rare starter who can manage to outperform the league HR/FB rate long term, though, honestly, I think the front office's hands were a bit tied after the collapse of top prospects this year.

It's hard to imagine the Twins' farm system ranking out of the basement of MLB if a couple of the top guys don't take big steps forward to end the season. The loss of Povich, Steer, Hajjar and Encarnation-Strand hurt, but they weren't going to change the status of the farm to above average. The Twins were going to have a well below average farm system no matter what at this point. These moves just gut what would have been the middle rank depth for good farm systems; however, that pushes an already weak system into the abyss.

This is exactly the situation Falvey was hired to prevent. The only thing which should save his job at this point is a deep playoff run.

[TouchEmAllGuy]

I think some of you value "our" prospects too much. Great get by the FO! Love to see that they're going for it.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

Who has been removed from the Twins 26 man roster and who has been removed from the 40 man roster, to make room for Lopez and Mahle? The Twins are a much better team today than they were yesterday. 

[USAFChief]

I'm quite happy.

I don't really care about the prospect cost. It costs to acquire needed talent...money or minor leaguers. I'd prefer money, but don't object to minor leaguers. And you absolutely CAN'T just let a team with this opportunity die a slow death without even trying. 

Good job FO. Don't stop now.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

7 minutes ago, bunsen82 said:

The first four picks along with Steer and a couple flyers netted us Gray, Mahle and Lopez.  2 starters and a closer with decent control.   

A good way to look at this. I do miss Petty though. 

[DJL44]

23 minutes ago, bighat said:

Steer and Hajjar would have been OK, but losing Encarnacion-Strand also is a real punch in the gut.

Steer and Hajjar for Mahle would have been robbery for the Twins. Steer looks like a utility player in the Mike Moustakas vein. Hajjar is likely to be a back end starter or middle reliever. Encarnacion-Strand is the player who looks like he could make an impact with his bat but he's also a 1B/DH with the glove so he'll have to hit. The Twins traded from depth in the infield (although Prielipp is the only lefthanded pitching prospect in the minors now - always draft more LHP than you need). They didn't give up Miranda, Kirilloff, Larnach, Lewis or Martin. 

[Markdumont25]

I don't understand people bemoaning what we gave up in this trade. In general the front office is attacked by the fan base for not being aggressive enough but when they make an aggressive necessary move people freak out about who we gave up.

In general our major league lineup is quite young and quite good. We don't have a pressing need for bats. Our rotation is a different story.. I love both trades today despite what we gave up.

[Minfidel]

48 minutes ago, jmlease1 said:

I like all three of our prospects that we moved here, but CES is the only one where I get a little squidgy about letting him go. Steer is a nice player, but we're trading from depth there with Miranda looking strong. Hajjar might be a quality starter, but has a ways to go. CES is the guy that I thought might be a special hitter, though, and I hate to give that up.

That said, we needed more pitching, and Mahle isn't just a rental. He'll slot in nicely right now when we need him to right the ship and be good to go for next year's rotation too. It's the right move, i think. And like how they're not willing to let this season slip away. I like how they are adding in players that aren't just rentals.

Mahle. yeah, I like that guy.

2022 is obviously top of mind, but looking ahead to '23, you're looking at a rotation featuring Gray, Mahle, Maeda, Ryan, and Winder or a reclamation to be named later. That is a pretty solid rotation - until someone gets hurt.

[Don't Feed the Greed Guy]

Am I greedy, or is okay to wish for one more reliever? Please trade Joey Bagadoughnuts for a mid-tier bullpen arm. Please? 

It already feels like Christmas, though. 

[2wins87]

1 minute ago, Dman said:

Like all trades it is a bittersweet result.  I was fine giving up Steer he was going to need to be added to the 40 man and there wasn't a ton of room to play him and there are guys coming up behind him.  Hajjar is a nice arm but a ways a way and I think there is reliever risk there.  Always hate losing good lefties of which the Twins now have virtually none left.  The gut punch though is Strand.  He doesn't need to be added for a while and he has those Miranda bat to ball skills that likely will make him an elite hitter.  He could be the Reds next Joey Votto IMO.  I really think he might be that good.  If they hadn't included him I would right as rain with this trade but IMO they got hijacked on this one.

I wouldn't put anything close to Miranda or Votto contact grades on CES.  Miranda literally had a career minor league K rate half that of CES, and Votto always had K rates under 20% as well.

What he does have is a crap ton of power with a still very reasonable amount of swing and miss.  Trying to come up with power/contact comp quickly maybe Matt Olson?  Encarnacion-Strand still needs to walk more though.  Maybe if you really want to dream on him Pete Alonso?  Again, CES has work to do on his plate discipline to really be in the conversation at that level.

I still think Steer is the big loss in this one for that reason, though I absolutely think CES will be a good major leaguer too.

[HrbieFan]

Steer and CES had no positions for a few years. Long run, CES might only be a DH/1B in the big. We have lost some SP talent in the minors today, time to reload in the FA signing period 

[KirbyHawk75]

I like this trade.  You have to give up prospects to get players like Mahle.  Look at our track record with prospects:  Half of the hitters can't stay healthy (Lewis, AK, Larnach) and most of the pitching prospects can't stay healthy and/or flame out.  

 

I am greedy for one more reliever.  But I am pleasantly surprised.  

[Danchat]

3 minutes ago, Don't Feed the Greed Guy said:

Am I greedy, or is okay to wish for one more reliever? Please trade Joey Bagadoughnuts for a mid-tier bullpen arm. Please? 

It already feels like Christmas, though. 

They definitely need it, Jax-Lopez-Duran is a nice start but needs work. It's not out of the question that one of them gets hurt the next two months, so it wouldn't hurt to improve the depth and prevent one of Duffey/Smith/Pagan from throwing in a very important outing.