Week in Review: Between Rock Bottom and a Hard Place

[Nick Nelson]

The Minnesota Twins are falling apart and bottoming out as the trade deadline bears down, underscoring the desperate need for impact help in order to maintain their thin lead in the division and position themselves as a credible postseason threat. 

Weekly Snapshot: Mon, 7/25 through Sun, 7/31
***
Record Last Week: 1-4 (Overall: 53-48)
Run Differential Last Week: -14 (Overall: +26)
Standing: 1st Place in AL Central (1.0 GA)

Last Week's Game Results:

Game 97 | MIL 7, MIN 6: Bundy, Bullpen Let Down Bats in Loss
Game 98 | MIL 10, MIN 4: Tellez Sinks Twins with Pair of 3-Run Homers
Game 99 | SD 10, MIN 1: Ryan Gives up 5 Home Runs in Laugher
Game 100 | MIN 7, SD 4: Sonny Plays Stopper, Correa Steps Up
Game 101 | SD 3, MIN 2: Offense Goes Quietly, Twins Drop Series

NEWS & NOTES

Miguel Sanó was back ... then he wasn't. Following a three-month rehab from knee surgery, the slugger was activated ahead of Tuesday's game. Appearing in three games, he went 0-for-6 with four strikeouts, then went back on the injured list with knee inflammation. Evidently the injury flared up during a slide in the final game of his rehab.

For Sanó, whose career was basically on the line this year, it's another terrible break. He was in need of a good season to resuscitate his sagging stock ahead of his date with free agency. Instead, his body is letting him down and he may find himself settling for a minor-league deal in the offseason. It seems likely (to me, anyway) we've seen him for the last time in a Twins uniform.

Sanó was far from the biggest loss for the lineup. Max Kepler went on the injured list alongside him, with his fractured pinky toe proving too much to play through. Most perturbingly, Alex Kirilloff came out of Saturday's game with wrist soreness. More on that later.

Filling in these key roster spots are names like Tim Beckham and Mark Contreras. They're deserving of chances, and both great stories in their own right, but it's tough to be leaning on unproven Triple-A players at a time like this. The Twins are in the grinder right now. 

Alas, the pitching staff also keeps getting blindsided by crushing blows. Danny Coulombe, who's been unable to fight his way back from a hip injury, is now out with season-ending surgery. Meanwhile, Josh Winder landed on the injured list again due to his recurring shoulder impingement. He's been shut down and sent to Fort Myers as the team tries to figure out what's going on. They aren't calling this a season-ending move for him, but it very well could be.

HIGHLIGHTS

For me personally, the biggest highlight of the week was traveling to San Diego and taking in a couple of games at Petco Park. The stadium lived up to the hype, and the downtown gameday experience far exceeded all expectations. Admittedly, it felt a lot easier to ride out a rotten week for the Twins while enjoying an incredible city and soaking in the vibes of sold-out summer games in perfect weather.

I realize this does little for any of you. I'm sorry. 

My own experiences aside, there were some legitimately good moments on the field, even as the Twins bumbled through a sloppy 1-4 week. José Miranda stood out as the biggest bright spot, starting every game and going 8-for-19 with two homers and five RBIs. 

He has suddenly become the pivotal force in the middle of the order, with an aggressive free-swinging approach that yields powerful drive after powerful drive. Opposing pitchers just can't find a way to stop the kid. He even made a few nifty plays defensively at third base.

Byron Buxton was the other explosive performer in a generally underwhelming week from the offense. He homered three times and stole a base (notable after the previous week's PRP injection in his knee). 

On the pitching side, Sonny Gray was good. 

LOWLIGHTS

Gray's solid outing on Saturday – 5 IP, 1 ER – was much needed in the wake of three straight duds from the rapidly unraveling Twins rotation. Dylan Bundy and Chris Archer were bad against Milwaukee, but Joe Ryan's clunker to open the Padres series took the cake. 

In 4 ⅔ innings, the right-hander was knocked around for 10 earned runs on FIVE homers. It was a very odd game for Ryan, who also struck out seven and set a career high with 15 swings and misses. His stuff was either really working or really not working, and that's a scarily unpredictable proposition for a guy who'd likely be starting in the postseason.

One could argue that Rocco Baldelli hung Ryan out to dry on Saturday night, but who can really blame him with a bullpen that continues to inspire zero confidence. Tyler Duffey has fallen back into the pits after a modest run of effectiveness – he took the loss with a brutal ninth-inning appearance in Milwaukee on Tuesday, and then endangered a six-run lead in the ninth on Saturday by coughing up a three-run HR.

Caleb Thielbar is gearing up for a return, which will be helpful, but this bullpen continues to look direly undermanned, with a void of trustworthy options beyond Jhoan Duran and Griffin Jax. 

The pitching staff needs impact reinforcements, and they'll likely get some within the next couple days. Even then, the Twins are clearly gonna need the offense to carry the load if they're going to hang on for a playoff berth and hope to make any noise. That's where the past week proved most unsettling.  

The team pitched well enough to win on Sunday for a change, but the offense could not answer the call in a 3-2 loss, coming up empty outside of solo homers from Miranda and Luis Arraez. Carlos Correa had a big two-run homer on Saturday night, but otherwise went 1-for-20 on the week. Gary Sanchez went 1-for-10 with seven strikeouts, wrapping up a month of July in which the now-starting catcher slashed .149/.245/.234.

The lineup is lagging and will now be without Kepler for however long it takes his toe to get right. Meanwhile any small hope of Sanó coming in and lighting any sort of spark is gone. But the Kirilloff news is easily the most gutting on the lineup front.

I don't want to make a mountain out of a molehill, but the revelation from Baldelli that "Kirilloff's wrist got to the point where he couldn't swing" strikes me with possible season-sinking implications. I had remarked a few days earlier about how Kirilloff was noticeably reverting to the habit of topping every pitch – that tendency was a clear indicator of how his wrist issues were impeding his swing before he went to the minors, received a cortisone shot, and got back on track. Following his initial power surge, he had one of the highest grounder rates in the league in July.

Kirilloff was such a huge factor in the offense's midsummer success, slashing .307/.328/.548 with 17 RBIs in his first 18 games back after being recalled from Triple-A. But his gradual regression back into an unimposing ground-ball machine was painfully evident, and the numbers back it up. Sadly, news of his wrist re-emerging as a debilitating factor comes as no surprise.

Several of the key young players that the Twins were hoping to rely on this year – Coulombe, Royce Lewis, Chris Paddack – are already gone for the season. Several others – Kirilloff, Winder, Jorge Alcala, Matt Canterino, Randy Dobnak – are persistently plagued and repeatedly sidelined by mysterious injuries and conditions that the players and medical staff can't seem to solve. 

It makes you wonder, at this critical moment ... is the structural core of this team good enough to be fixed up for a successful stretch run? Or are we flailing against inevitability?

TRENDING STORYLINE

That question weighs heavily with the trade deadline looming at 5:00 PM CT on Tuesday. The philosophical dilemma I pondered over the All-Star break – how much does it make sense to sacrifice key future capital in a leveraged market to aid a deeply flawed current roster? – has only grown murkier in two weeks since. The Twins have gone 3-4, watched their division lead shrink to one, and absorbed bad break after bad break on the health front, as outlined above.

The Twins, Guardians and White Sox are bunched in the standings, each separated by a game apiece. They are all looking to add ahead of Tuesday's deadline, and are pretty much in direct competition to address semi-similar weaknesses in a finite seller's market. It's going to be fascinating to see how things play out between these three competing clubs as they set themselves up for the final stretch in a division that's very much there for the taking.

LOOKING AHEAD

The Twins have seven home games in the week ahead, setting the tone for a month in which 20 of their 28 games will be played at Target Field. 

MONDAY, 8/1: TIGERS @ TWINS – LHP Tarik Skubal v. TBD
TUESDAY, 8/2: TIGERS @ TWINS – RHP Matt Manning v. RHP Chris Archer
WEDNESDAY, 8/3: TIGERS @ TWINS – LHP Tyler Alexander v. RHP Joe Ryan
THURSDAY, 8/4: BLUE JAYS @ TWINS – RHP Alek Manoah v. RHP Sonny Gray
FRIDAY, 8/5: BLUE JAYS @ TWINS – RHP Ross Stripling v. RHP Dylan Bundy
SATURDAY, 8/6: BLUE JAYS @ TWINS – RHP Jose Berrios v. TBD
SUNDAY, 8/7: BLUE JAYS @ TWINS – RHP Kevin Gausman v. RHP Chris Archer

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[ashbury]

21 minutes ago, Nick Nelson said:

The Minnesota Twins are falling apart and bottoming out

I don't quite understand the seeming certainty that we know where the bottom exactly is or will become. 

[strumdatjag]

The Twins are still in first place.  Don’t give away the future (even for a superstar) but the Twins should be able to pick up one or two pieces to enhance this roster.   Do not sell. 

[tony&rodney]

The Twins still have some decent players: Arraez, Polanco, Miranda, Correa, and Buxton are solid guys and Urshela will return soon too. Gordon and Celestino  played better than expected. It looks dark but it isn't that dark. I can see the core turning it on this month.

August will be huge because the Twins play a ton at home and have a fair schedule. If the team can fight through the next week and get a few players back they could still hold on. Falvey has a day and half left in his season and we hope he connects too; it is needed.

[dxpavelka]

And yet remain in first place..

[RaoulDuke]

This team is in a major funk right now.  They are looking bad right when deadline is here and it's perfectly reasonable to question spending future talent to boost this roster.

That being said the pen has cost them 7-10 wins and control of a weak division.  Bring in 2 guys to stabilize the back end with Duran (and sacrifice whatever needed to gods to keep him healthy) and they should win it.

A starter is a playoff move, ya they look bad now but playoffs is a crapshoot and Buxton/ Correa is a good core to push with.  This offense could do damage if hot at the right time.

I still kinda want them to push, the division is there for the taking and anyone can get hot come playoffs.  Idk if I pay for a top end starter but they need at least someone to throw game 3.  I pay for real pen help period.

[MTV]

The Twins will have to pull a 2021 Atlanta Braves and reshape the outfield at the deadline. Kepler, Larnach, and Kirilloff are all injured and have questionable return times, so the Twins will be throwing out an outfield of Gordon, Buxton, and Garlick for probably 2+ Weeks (barring trades). The Twins will need at the very least 1, hopefully 2 corner outfielders to bolster the lineup, while finding a decent backup catcher (Hamilton isn’t working out), 2 starters, and 2 relievers in…18 hours. God bless this organization.

[Wizard11]

2 months in a row of below .500 performance does not suggest we should be emptying out the farm.  This team is more than a good starting pitcher away from being a serious contender.   Getting the “participation” trophy of possibly winning the AL Central is a lousy reason to trade good prospects.

I was also at the games on Friday and Saturday.  Joe Ryan was actually not as bad as the outcome suggests.  He did throw 5 meatballs in the center of the strike zone that were not missed by 5 different hitters, however he otherwise had good poise and good stuff.  Wearing Twins gear and enthusiastically cheering Buxton’s jack certainly gave the local partisans plenty of material to work with later. 
 

Saturday on the other hand was good fun and the Twins players were also having a good time.  Sat behind their dugout both nights and their demeanor was radically different between the two nights.  Some good pitching by Sonny Gray and a helpfully inert umpire fired the boyz up.

I am usually an eternal optimist with the Twins but reality was on display these past 2 months and it is clear that the Twins are 3-4 quality pitchers short of meaningful contention.

[Major League Ready]

I would much rather finish 2nd in the division with a 100 win than get into the playoffs with an 84win team.  In other words, how much we leverage the future should not be driven by the fact we are in first place.  The goal should be to build a great team, not sneak into the playoffs because we play in a division that is very weak this year.   Do we want to be good for several years or make the playoffs for 1 year?

That said, anything is possible so plug the biggest holes which is the BP.  

[bighat]

Twins shouldn't sell, but they shouldn't mortgage the future either. Get a couple relievers for some lottery-ticket prospects and see what happens. No need to give up the farm for Montas, having a guy who can only play every 5th day just isn't enough to help this team.

It's been much more interesting than last year, most of us had checked out by June in '21 and the whole year was miserable.

That said, with such horrific pitching and an inconsistent offense that's been known to run ice-cold for an entire series, I just don't think the Twins have enough to win the division this year. We should all be realistic about that, it'll make the inevitable pain much easier to swallow.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Jealous of all of you who were in San Diego this weekend! 

[PopRiveter]

7 hours ago, RaoulDuke said:

This team is in a major funk right now.  They are looking bad right when deadline is here and it's perfectly reasonable to question spending future talent to boost this roster.

That being said the pen has cost them 7-10 wins and control of a weak division.  Bring in 2 guys to stabilize the back end with Duran (and sacrifice whatever needed to gods to keep him healthy) and they should win it.

A starter is a playoff move, ya they look bad now but playoffs is a crapshoot and Buxton/ Correa is a good core to push with.  This offense could do damage if hot at the right time.

I still kinda want them to push, the division is there for the taking and anyone can get hot come playoffs.  Idk if I pay for a top end starter but they need at least someone to throw game 3.  I pay for real pen help period.

This is probably what I needed to read this morning. I have been feeling like they should just stand pat and let the cards fall where they may. Send the team the message that “You are the cavalry. Step up.”

But truly, bullpens can often be patched without paying a huge penalty and this team could be so much stronger with a couple bullpen reinforcements.

If they fall apart, at least don’t give up much.

[Whitey333]

Nick, you always have such thorough well thought out articles.  I always read your stories first.  The Twins have a lot of flaws and holes not to mention the injuries.  I don't want to mortgage the future either but is our farm system so great that it's the future?  People need to be realistic.  Most of the prospects in any organization are just that, prospects often over- hyped.

[big dog]

Trigger warning: depressing opinion from a usually somewhat-optimistic poster.

Keith Law's new Top 60, out this morning, includes two Twins (Lee #40 and Rodriguez, #50+). One can't be traded yet, the other is out until spring. Our top four prospects from the start of the season- Lewis, Martin, Miranda, and Balazovic- have turned into three question marks and a guy who is about one-quarter of the team's offense right now. That pretty well describes the team's situation right now. It's a MASH unit with a few very good young or young-ish players and a bunch of A/AA prospects that are pretty far from elite. What are we going to be able to offer for any top-end pitchers?

Barring some other GM going completely nuts and ignoring better offers from other teams, I'm afraid that my dreams of getting top talent in trade can best be summarized by a quote from "Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid":

It's over, don't you get that? Your times is over and you're gonna die bloody, and all you can do is choose where.

All we can do is look forward to this year's version of Sergio Romo, I think. And maybe that's for the best, since we seem to be about 5 players short of a real major-league roster at the moment and perhaps for the foreseeable future. People get healthy, or we keep sinking. I don't think we have an option, other than finding that insane GM I mentioned.

[TwinsDr2021]

1 hour ago, Major League Ready said:

I would much rather finish 2nd in the division with a 100 win than get into the playoffs with an 84win team.  In other words, how much we leverage the future should not be driven by the fact we are in first place.  The goal should be to build a great team, not sneak into the playoffs because we play in a division that is very weak this year.   Do we want to be good for several years or make the playoffs for 1 year?

That said, anything is possible so plug the biggest holes which is the BP.  

I would rather the Twins get into the playoffs then not, but I totally get what you are saying.

The question I have for everybody is who are the prospects in the minors that are going to help this team be great and when realistically is great? could the Twins trade 5 guys in their stop 30 and still be OK or is that the end of building?

For me next year looks quite a bit like this year, hope the starting pitchers stay healthy, hope the younger guys get better (Larnach, Miranda, Jeffers, AK), Lewis is healthy and wins a starting spot (somewhere), and maybe have a couple of pitching prospects step up. To me I see the 23 Twins in a similiar situation next year as they are this year, by this I mean in first or fighting for first with all three teams being a little better than this year.

With that said I am not trading Lewis (unless it is for Othani or Soto) but anybody else could be traded for the right deal. There are plenty I would trade for a guy for 2 months, but most would require some team control.

 

[TwinsDr2021]

12 minutes ago, big dog said:

Trigger warning: depressing opinion from a usually somewhat-optimistic poster.

Keith Law's new Top 60, out this morning, includes two Twins (Lee #40 and Rodriguez, #50+). One can't be traded yet, the other is out until spring. Our top four prospects from the start of the season- Lewis, Martin, Miranda, and Balazovic- have turned into three question marks and a guy who is about one-quarter of the team's offense right now. That pretty well describes the team's situation right now. It's a MASH unit with a few very good young or young-ish players and a bunch of A/AA prospects that are pretty far from elite. What are we going to be able to offer for any top-end pitchers?

Barring some other GM going completely nuts and ignoring better offers from other teams, I'm afraid that my dreams of getting top talent in trade can best be summarized by a quote from "Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid":

It's over, don't you get that? Your times is over and you're gonna die bloody, and all you can do is choose where.

All we can do is look forward to this year's version of Sergio Romo, I think. And maybe that's for the best, since we seem to be about 5 players short of a real major-league roster at the moment and perhaps for the foreseeable future. People get healthy, or we keep sinking. I don't think we have an option, other than finding that insane GM I mentioned.

To be honest I was never on the get a top end starter, mostly because I don't think the Twins would change their philosophy of around 21/22 batters faced on average a game. Maybe they could try for Rodon and abuse the crap out of him the rest of the year (think Brewers with CC) and let him walk, but I don't think they would do that either. I have been on the need relief pitchers and need them fast and would have been willing to overpay the last few weeks, still think they need relief pitchers but waiting until the last second wasn't the right play IMO because if they get another Dyson situation there is no fixing that, but if they got a guy a few weeks ago, well then they still have the deadline.

As for the prospects, it is somewhat depressing they have no real top end type talent close, and I am guessing people are going to be saying that is because they graduated some many guys which I would agree with if those guys would have been top end talents unless I am wrong only Lewis and AK were considered top 50-100 guys, I mean Martin and SWR were but lets not go there.

 

 

[terrydactyls]

1 hour ago, bighat said:

Twins shouldn't sell, but they shouldn't mortgage the future either. Get a couple relievers for some lottery-ticket prospects and see what happens. No need to give up the farm for Montas, having a guy who can only play every 5th day just isn't enough to help this team.

It's been much more interesting than last year, most of us had checked out by June in '21 and the whole year was miserable.

That said, with such horrific pitching and an inconsistent offense that's been known to run ice-cold for an entire series, I just don't think the Twins have enough to win the division this year. We should all be realistic about that, it'll make the inevitable pain much easier to swallow.

If you don't think the Twins can win their division (to which I agree), then why not sell?  Offer up anyone that doesn't figure prominently in their 2023 plans (including those eligible for rule 5) and see if anyone is interested.  If they don't get any reasonable offers, then stand pat.  No harm, no foul.

[tony&rodney]

1 hour ago, Whitey333 said:

I don't want to mortgage the future either but is our farm system so great that it's the future?  People need to be realistic.  Most of the prospects in any organization are just that, prospects often over- hyped.

The Twins future lineup has already or currently plays at the MLB level or on IL (Lewis, Larnach, Jeffers, Ober, Winder, Alcala). I think the Twins could easily trade 5-9 of their top 20 prospects without suffering a major loss in future value due to how young the current MLB roster is at this time. Remember that they cannot trade 2022 draft choices.

[bighat]

34 minutes ago, terrydactyls said:

If you don't think the Twins can win their division (to which I agree), then why not sell?  Offer up anyone that doesn't figure prominently in their 2023 plans (including those eligible for rule 5) and see if anyone is interested.  If they don't get any reasonable offers, then stand pat.  No harm, no foul.

I don't think they'll win the division, but I do think that with Buxton, Correa, Polanco and Arraez they stand a chance of getting hot and maybe pulling it off.

So I wouldn't sell, I'd just add a couple of bullpen fliers for some A-ball prospects and see if you catch lightening in a bottle. That way you're not abandoning the season and you're also not burning up your future either.

That's just me.

[miller761]

With all the doom and gloom just a reminder. If you told a Twin's fan in January you would be in first place on August 1 they would be jumping up and down with joy. Let's have fun watching seeing where this is going.

[bighat]

19 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

The Twins future lineup has already or currently plays at the MLB level or on IL (Lewis, Larnach, Jeffers, Ober, Winder, Alcala). I think the Twins could easily trade 5-9 of their top 20 prospects without suffering a major loss in future value due to how young the current MLB roster is at this time. Remember that they cannot trade 2022 draft choices.

The problem with the Twins young talent is they are virtually ALL on the IL. So their value is about as low as can be right now - and you can add Kirilloff to the list also.

It's incredibly bad luck. They are in need but the cupboard of prospects is bare.

[bighat]

Just now, miller761 said:

With all the doom and gloom just a reminder. If you told a Twin's fan in January you would be in first place on August 1 they would be jumping up and down with joy. Let's have fun watching seeing where this is going.

Totally agree - they're in it, which is something.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

53 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

To be honest I was never on the get a top end starter, mostly because I don't think the Twins would change their philosophy of around 21/22 batters faced on average a game. Maybe they could try for Rodon and abuse the crap out of him the rest of the year (think Brewers with CC) and let him walk, but I don't think they would do that either. I have been on the need relief pitchers and need them fast and would have been willing to overpay the last few weeks, still think they need relief pitchers but waiting until the last second wasn't the right play IMO because if they get another Dyson situation there is no fixing that, but if they got a guy a few weeks ago, well then they still have the deadline.

As for the prospects, it is somewhat depressing they have no real top end type talent close, and I am guessing people are going to be saying that is because they graduated some many guys which I would agree with if those guys would have been top end talents unless I am wrong only Lewis and AK were considered top 50-100 guys, I mean Martin and SWR were but lets not go there.

 

 

Agreed. At least one reliever is needed, but I am starting to lean towards acquiring a starter here and hoping this new starter just has a good second half. Imagine going into a postseason series with Gray/Ryan/ and ??? again. And some people might think “how dare you” when I say this, but I wonder if Miranda is playing the best he can possibly play right at this moment. So that might be your best trade chip. 

[BH67]

The Twins dropped to +5 vs .500 on Friday for the first time since May 17.  They've hovered between +6 and +10 for the previous two months.

I remain convinced of their dauntlessness because they are holding steady in spite of various key parts slumping, getting injured, etc,, without exception -- usually more than one key part at a time.  But one can bail water only for so long before exhaustion sets in.  And we're here.

Would a major trade be enough to make things noticeably better in the stretch run?  I doubt it.  A lineup that usually starts with Arraez, Correa, Buxton and Polanco should not be struggling this much.  The bullpen blows up far too often.  And the starting pitching is weakening considerably as a whole, which makes all other perceived upgrades meaningless.

Falvine don't seem very good at plugging free agents into available holes.  They are, however, showing a knack for drafting good pitching and developing it in the lower rungs of the farm system.

The Wolves made a rash trade for Rudy Gobert, but he and a core of KAT, Edwards and McDaniels have the talent and attitude to make an NBA title run within three years.  If they fail, at least it will be fun to watch.  I don't see a similar surge happening on the other side of the 394 parking garage right now, so I'm against anything that provides a tourniquet at the expense of the future.

 

[tony&rodney]

1 hour ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

The question I have for everybody is who are the prospects in the minors that are going to help this team be great and when realistically is great? could the Twins trade 5 guys in their stop 30 and still be OK or is that the end of building?

MLB teams want to have a steady stream of players edging their way forward in the farm system in hopes that one or two manage to be solid players. The Twins have a young team already and their lineup could stay more or less the same for the next 2-5 years. They need some catchers with Jeffers the only guy expected to be around next year. 1B = Kirilloff is best glove, Arraez needs to be in the lineup. 2B = Polanco unless they trade him, leaving the position for Arraez/Lewis/Steer/Lee/Julien. 3B = Miranda and they could keep Urshela. There are many others to fill here if necessary. SS = Correa hopefully but unlikely. Palacios or/and Lewis can cover this position. OF = Larnach, Buxton, Kepler, Gordon, Celestino and others coming in time. The only two prospects who currently project are Brooks Lee and Emmanuel Rodriguez. The Twins have a bundle of fair pitching prospects, none of them are now seen as above mid rotation or back end starters. Long way to say that, yes, the Twins could easily trade 5 guys. Heck, they could trade 10 guys if the return helped for a couple of years. They are not allowed to trade their 2022 draft picks at this time and that protects their best lineup prospect (Lee) and maybe their best pitching prospect (Prielipp). A bigger question remains. Do any teams see value in the Twins prospects? So far, no or at least it is unknown.

[PatPfund]

The question of whether or not this is a team you push in a lot of 'future' chips to fix now is the key question.

I think this past week has actually made it clearer; there is too much to fix with 'big' moves, and our ability to make both big and medium moves has been damaged.

Winder's injury both takes out a possible #3-#4 starter, and/or a potent trade chip. Sano's trade value really is now zero. Kirilloff has both lost his trade value, and put giant question marks over his ability to cover the production hole that would open if you traded Miranda. Archer is regressing after moving from competent Opener to borderline starter, to hip issue, to weak Opener. Ryan is either in a doldrum, or scouts have figured out how to time his deceptive but not very fast fastball. Our pitching coach praised by our pitchers, quit mid-season.

I still think we can win the division making minimal moves (crappy week, and still in first; three flawed teams duking it out). I also like our young core, and the way Palacios is hitting in St Paul (since he might be the critical SS bridge to Lewis next year).

Winning in the playoffs, though, looks like it would now take two SPs (and one would have to be Gray-level or better), and probably a #4 type to replace Winder. Plus a couple RPs (one back end worthy). At inflated trade deadline prices, that is more that we can afford (maybe more than we even have). So I'd see if we could find an SP for something reasonable (Eovaldi from Boston?), and a Romo type reliever for cheap, and not trade Miranda or too many top prospects. Win the division, see if magic strikes in the playoffs, and build for next year with more reasonable offseason prices.

(And hopefully take the lesson that being "in" on Rodon counts for nothing if you are then shipping big prospects to get him mid-year, when a bit more money could have had him months earlier.)

[Game7-91]

27 minutes ago, PatPfund said:

being "in" on Rodon counts for nothing if you are then shipping big prospects to get him mid-year, when a bit more money could have had him months earlier.)

It does seem that was a missed opportunity. But in Falvines defense, there was much doubt abt Rodon's ability to pitch 150 effective innings...doubters including me were wrong.

Amidst the gloom, the blazing bright supernova right now is watching Miranda emerge. As he gains rep's, he could be All-Star caliber. Hoping the apparent injury curse someone has hexed upon our best and brightest prospect list will miss JM. Guys like him will make Aug/Sep tolerable, and hopeful, even if the W-L ratio tanks.

[Karbo]

I sure wouldn't trade a bunch of promising prospects for a starter at this time, unless they can get a couple of relievers. Rocco will just pull the starter too early and let the pen choke away the game.

[Nick Nelson]

2 hours ago, terrydactyls said:

If you don't think the Twins can win their division (to which I agree), then why not sell?  Offer up anyone that doesn't figure prominently in their 2023 plans (including those eligible for rule 5) and see if anyone is interested.  If they don't get any reasonable offers, then stand pat.  No harm, no foul.

Do people understand how bad the optics would be -- for fans and especially for players -- if the front office decided to "sell" while in first place? It'd be unforgivable. It's not an option.

1 hour ago, miller761 said:

With all the doom and gloom just a reminder. If you told a Twin's fan in January you would be in first place on August 1 they would be jumping up and down with joy. Let's have fun watching seeing where this is going.

No kidding. A year ago today the Twins were 44-62 and 18 games out of first place. We've got an exciting stretch run ahead. Keep expectations in check, and enjoy it! 

[bean5302]

This is really the worst case scenario for a trade deadline position for the Twins. Somewhere in a gray area in regard to whether or not they're really a playoff contender. There aren't just a couple problems, there are a host of them and no way to reasonably address all of them or even most of them.

Quite the mess with tons of injuries.