Why Would the Twins Deal Carlos Correa?

[Ted Schwerzler]

For whatever reason, it continues to get thrown out there that the Twins should explore trading Carlos Correa. While he is signed to a three-year contract, his opt-outs have always effectively made the deal a one-year pact. If they do want to move him at the deadline, what type of value are we actually talking about?

First and foremost, let’s get this out there. The idea of dealing one of your top two players while leading the division seems asinine in and of itself, regardless of the tenure Carlos Correa was going to have with the Twins, Minnesota was able to bring him through a perfect set of circumstances, and he immediately makes their chances to win in the postseason this year that much better.

Bad teams look to sign veterans on expiring deals in order to flip them for prospects. Minnesota is not a bad team, Correa’s contract is not a traditional one-year deal, and the chief purpose of bringing him in was always to win.

Ok, now, let’s go down the rabbit hole of actually dealing him. The only reason to do this would be for Minnesota to recoup more future value than the absence of Correa would provide. However, given their positioning for the current postseason, they’d need to keep a similar level of overall talent on the big league roster. That means Minnesota’s front office would be hard-pressed to explain dealing Correa for a package filled with future prospects. There would have to be a current major-league asset included, and that would likely water down the overall value.

Then there’s the reality that the Twins are trying to replace a guy that’s consistently put up at least 3.0 fWAR on an annual basis, and is again angling to do that. Of the more than 1,500 players to appear at the major-league level last season, 64 of them posted a 3.0 fWAR or better (roughly 4%). To summarize, a player worth 3.0 fWAR in any given season is an incredibly valuable asset. Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano were both considered uber prospects for the Twins in their time. Buxton has surpassed 3.0 fWAR in half of his eight big league seasons while Sano has never done so and has been worth a total of just 8.4 fWAR across eight seasons. Trying to nail a prospect, even the best ones, is an inexact science and could leave any potential return feeling light for years down the road.

Looking at Baseball Trade Values, Correa himself is also not some juggernaut in terms of expected value. The simulator puts him at 15.4 at the median, which ranks just above prospect Spencer Steer’s 14. By comparison, the Nationals Juan Soto is at 176.8 as a median trade value. Getting a prospect like Yankees Anthony Volpe would require something like 52.6 in trade value, and even a big league ace in Luis Castillo would require something like 41.2 in median trade value.

What we’re getting at here is that while Correa is ridiculously talented, and potentially one of the best players that could be had, his value is held down in being a current rental for any acquiring team as well. Although a new organization would possess exclusive negotiating rights to a new deal, Correa would still be looking for the long-term payday that takes him at least through his age 37 or 38 season. Arguably the best way to drive his price up is by finding multiple bidders on the open market. Whether a team believes they can sign him or not, they’d need some sort of guarantee from Scott Boras (unlikely) before giving up value assuming the player is more than a two or three-month hired assassin.

All of this continues to turn back to the Twins. There are very few ways that dealing Carlos Correa would make them better immediately. The likelihood that dealing him makes them better in the long run is bleak as well. Sure, if he leaves, they lose him for nothing, but it was always assumed this was a one-year thing in which he could contribute during a postseason run. Why would you embark on that path at the beginning, and then deviate from it when it’s going so well?

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[Alex Schieferdecker]

It's a dumb idea, some people are dumb.

[terrydactyls]

"things are going so well"?  Offense is erratic at best.  Starters can't go more than six innings (and usually less than five).  The bullpen is best described as who is going to screw up the least tonight.  Your best player is probably leaving as soon as he can.  To me, that does not say that things are going well.  Yeah, the Twins are in first but look at their competition.  Chicago and Cleveland are both close and neither has been playing well.  The Twins may make the playoffs but how long will they last.  As for Correa, if the front office can't get any commitment from him this week, the Twins should send him to whoever wants him for the best return they are offered.  Something is always better than nothing in my opinion.

[farmerguychris]

If Royce would have been healthy, I would have wanted to see what we could get in return.  But as of now - stand pat with him and hope he even considers staying another year.

[bunsen82]

And yet you did another article on the topic ?

[SwainZag]

I can't wait for the deadline to come around and pass so the daily "Trading Correa" threads will go away.

[Vanimal46]

[Craig Arko]

7 minutes ago, SwainZag said:

I can't wait for the deadline to come around and pass so the daily "Trading Correa" threads will go away.

No kidding.

[Blyleven2011]

Let's just wait and see what our top professionals  do at the deadline  .....

 

Guts or no glory ,,, see you on August 2nd after the deadline on trade topics ...

[roger]

Why don't we all sit back, watch the Twins play this next week, and then look forward.  Correa will either be here or he won't.  If he isn't, expect we will see lots of articles about X deal.  Those articles will then be worth reading.

[Dman]

If the Twins were in KC or Tigers territory I am sure they would consider trading Correa but given things have worked out like they hoped they would when they signed him they have to be happy they got him if only for one year.  He is a great club house fit.  He is putting up his normal numbers.  The Twins are in 1st place and have been for last few months.  He filled a massive Shortstop hole for this season and gave us a chance to win the division.  The FO made the right decision to sign him they won't trade him now.

[bean5302]

The first issue is who plays starting shortstop if Correa is traded?

My bet is probably Jermaine Palacios. I like Palacios and I think he could play well enough not to be a real liability, but that's certainly no guarantee. Palacios has been more than holding his own in St. Paul posting a .286/.352/.446 OPS .798 wRC+ of 113 since June 1st once the pop he showed last year in AA returned. The K and BB rates are... okay. Handing him the starting shortstop gig for the rest of this year involves quite the leap of faith in a player the Twins weren't even willing to put on the 40 man last year.

Nick Gordon is another candidate. I just can't see this happening. While the Twins have given Gordon a few innings at SS this year, it's clearly against their better judgement and he's viewed as an emergency SS. Without Celestino on the roster, Gordon is going to be the backup CF for when Buxton is out making this even less likely.

If the Twins were trading for a passable shortstop, that would steeply gut any return for what's viewed as a rental on Correa as well. I just don't see the trade happening at this point.

[TwinsDr2021]

I would hope those on the trade Correa bandwagen are also on the trade Gray, Sanchez, Kepler, Duffey, Smith, Archer,  Pagan, Bundy, Sano, Cotton otherwise your logic makes zero sense.

[howeda7]

This again. Regardless of whether it COULD be a good decision in some sort of fantasy baseball vacuum in the real world it's absurd.

You're up 3.5 games 7 days before the deadline and you're going to trade one of your two best players? Are you also going to send your season ticket holders an email and tell them to go $%%^ themselves? Are you going to trade Kiriloff and Lewis before they have a chance to laugh in your face when you offer them a contract extension?

[Unwinder]

I've said this before in probably these exact words, but Twins fans are so beaten down by so many years of playoff failure that when they finally land a star free agent, all they can think of is what they can get for him. They're scared to even make a playoff run until the team is completely unbeatable.

[DJL44]

3 hours ago, SwainZag said:

I can't wait for the deadline to come around and pass so the daily "Trading Correa" threads will go away.

Then we can start daily "Should the Twins have traded Correa at the deadline?" articles

[Doctor Gast]

So fans want to trade Correa so they can get more flyers. Then we can horde these prospects and when "rule 5" comes around we lose them to the draft. Trading Correa doesn't make sense in any way you look at it.

[nicksaviking]

What if we trade for him and he blows out his knee? Every other GM is thinking when considering him a “rental” player.

[cHawk]

The idea of trading Correa was deluded nonsense all along.

[Whitey333]

Correa is a member of the Twins.  He does not have a no trade contract   Anyone in the team can be traded.  I don't think they will trade him because I don't think they will find a team trading partner.  But that doesn't mean they shouldn't listen to any offers.  Correa has been a good player but looks like he took could be a rental for the Twins.  I would expect that when the Twins don't trade him and he leaves the same fans will start complaining because they let him go for nothing.  I'm for keeping him but not at all costs.  I still can't figure out why they signed him without making their pitching staff a major league one.  

[tony&rodney]

Silly talk, nothing but nonsense.

[cHawk]

30 minutes ago, Whitey333 said:

I still can't figure out why they signed him without making their pitching staff a major league one.  

They signed him cause he makes the team better

[Aerodeliria]

To be honest, this has been one of the more bizarre topics to have dominated TD IMHO. A week after the cheering subsided, I was already seeing posts about trading Correa at the deadline. If that is the position, there seems to be no reason to even sign him in the first place, does there?

[Riverbrian]

I understand the logic being used to justify trading Correa. 

At the same time... I am a million miles from understanding the logic being used to justify the trading Correa. 

Uff Da

 

[USAFChief]

6 hours ago, Whitey333 said:

Correa is a member of the Twins.  He does not have a no trade contract   

Correa's contract includes a "limited no trade clause" in 2022, and a full no trade clause in 2023 and 24.

I can't find it now, but I recall reading somewhere he can prohibit the Twins from trading him to 6 teams this year. But don't quote me on that

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/minnesota-twins/carlos-correa-14168/#:~:text=Carlos Correa signed a 3,a total salary of %2435%2C100%2C000.

[old nurse]

16 hours ago, bunsen82 said:

And yet you did another article on the topic ?

People have short memories. Next up is a story about trading for Montas

[Heiny]

1.  The Twins will not trade Correa!!!!!

2.  See line 1.

[MABB1959]

15 hours ago, Unwinder said:

I've said this before in probably these exact words, but Twins fans are so beaten down by so many years of playoff failure that when they finally land a star free agent, all they can think of is what they can get for him. They're scared to even make a playoff run until the team is completely unbeatable.

Exactly.  If they had any luck getting prospects to above MLB average or even MLB ready is not very good.  By the time some get here they are plagued with injuries.  The only successes (above average) are Buxton and Berrios and only one of those left the other traded for below average prospects.  If they were average or above they would be here now!

[DJL44]

2 hours ago, old nurse said:

People have short memories. Next up is a story about trading for Montas

We're probably overdue for another rehash of the Taylor Rogers deal. Maybe the old farts can complain about Brunansky for Herr.

[Morneau for Gov]

The Twins aren't trading Correa. 

They're in first place and they don't have a good option to replace Correa if he's elsewhere.

Also, they won't trade him because they don't want to be an organization that players can't trust if they sign here.

I am disappointed to not see a real argument as to why the Twins would trade him though. The argument for trading him is that the Twins aren't winning a World Series this year and the real goal of a team should be to assemble a team capable of winning a WS!!! If you trade Correa this season it is called ASSET MANAGEMENT. Do the Twins have a better chance of winning a WS in the next several years with or without a Correa trade? Correa is not going to be here the rest of the 20's, but a trade would acquire players who could be. This is why the subject keeps coming up.