Minnesota Twins Activate Slugger Miguel Sano

[chinmusic]

8 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

Sure seems like a last stand for Sano; barring becoming a post season hero, it will soon be over

Post season hero, huh? That would be an unexpected but very cool twist. Too bad, but "Sano's last stand" seems inevitable.

[umterp23]

Roster is in flux.  Sano, don 't trust him whatsoever at the moment, regardless of what he did at AAA.  Kepler is the key with pinky bone contusion on right foot.  Last time we heard bone contusion was Jeffers with actually a broken bone in his thumb.  

So if Kepler is out for a period of games, then Kiriloff goes to outfield and Sano gets his chance to swing for the fences for his career at 1B.  

Buxton is out for a few more days, then OF is AAA quality at best.

Next couple days is key to see how Rocco can manage walking wounded

 

[MinnInPa]

as long as this doesnt mess with Arraez being in the lineup 9 out of 10 games- no matter if its a lefty or righty starting. this team goes as he goes. I think this is a big mistake...i feel Urshela has played very well....and Miranda needs his AB's..ditto for Kiriloff. Baldelli has to figure out a way to keep these 4 playing...and i'll be screaming the 1st game Sano k's 3 out of 4 times. 

[Karbo]

Sano has a track record of being a very slow starter, who heats up with the weather. I for one hope he comes back with a bang, and makes some people "eat their words". Odds of that happening are slim, but I'll be pulling for him.

[nicksaviking]

1 hour ago, chinmusic said:

Post season hero, huh? That would be an unexpected but very cool twist. Too bad, but "Sano's last stand" seems inevitable.

For sure. Eddie Rosario's 33 games and NLCS performance with Atlanta just crossed my mind prior to posting. If Sano pulled that off, the Twins would at least consider his option.

[goulik]

22 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

For sure. Eddie Rosario's 33 games and NLCS performance with Atlanta just crossed my mind prior to posting. If Sano pulled that off, the Twins would at least consider his option.

I have been a (frustrated) fan of Sano just as I was a fan of Eddie (at times frustrated there too). Watching those two emerge with Buxton, Berrios and Polanco was fun! (Sorry, just was never on the Kepler bandwagon). Now the new wave is coming (which I’m excited about) and 2 are gone from the previous wave. Another may soon follow. This is the life of a fan. Waves come up, some stay, some go and some just need to go.

I love to sing “Let it Sano, Let it Sano, Let it Sano” after a home run (especially the walk offs) and would love to sing it through the playoffs and up to his World Series MVP crown. But, alas, I expect this is his last week as a Twin. I think he SHOULD be traded for whatever you can get from an NL team OR anyone else willing to bite, but I will also be sad when it happens.

[bighat]

3 hours ago, Jeff D. said:

Mistake. Trade Mr. Sano along with Mr. Kepler and Mr. Jeffers for Mr. Pitching!

Twins Geezer......out!

I hear ya Geez, but the Twins would likely have to pay GMs to take those guys off our hands. Nobody's going to want any of them in a trade.

[wavedog]

I think with the current minor injury situations with Buxton and Kepler I would have kept Celestino and sent down Garlick - just to have a better defensive option in the outfield for this week's games.   Certainly hope Sano comes out hitting hot but my expectations are tempered.    

[bean5302]

3 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

Which starting caliber players are not playing regularly? 

Are not going to or haven't been? Kirilloff and Polanco recently returned and Sano has just been added now. Considering the "DH" position, there are 5 infield/DH positions. I see 7 every day players who need at bats. Honestly, I'd like to see Palacios playing at the MLB level, but he's not on the 40 man because he got screwed by the COVID protocols allowing him to be added and removed from the 40 man without exposure to waivers. Steer is also not on the 40 man so seeing him in September would be more complicated as well, but both Palacios and Steer deserve some time in the lineup.
Sano
Kirilloff
Polanco
Arraez
Correa
Miranda
Urshela

Larnach could return as early as a couple weeks from now as well so that complicates the DH situation as well.
 

[Whitey333]

Enough said about Sano.  He is probably playing his last couple of months with the Twins.  It's time to move on from Sano.  He enters his return hitting .093 with a ton of strikeouts.  He was a liability this spring when he did play.  Oh that's right the weather was rotten and cold.  But it was only cold for him I guess.  As he starts taking at bats away from some proven younger players, I wonder how happy people will be when he strikes out at a career rate around 35%.  But people always remember a grand slam against Cleveland or a ball that went 500 feet.  He may win us a game or two.  But it's also safe to say he may lose us a few as well with his inability to advance runners.  He hits a homerun abour once per every 18 at bats in his career but strikes out about once in every three times.  Strikeouts are part of the game.  But when all is said and done a batter striking out produces close to nothing.

[jmlease1]

1 hour ago, nicksaviking said:

For sure. Eddie Rosario's 33 games and NLCS performance with Atlanta just crossed my mind prior to posting. If Sano pulled that off, the Twins would at least consider his option.

I still don't think they'll consider his option, and Rosario's performance after the NLCS is exactly why. Eddie's been terrible and injured ever since that brief explosion, and now Atlanta is on the hook for next season with him at $9M (and a team option for 2024 that they'll almost certainly decline). Atlanta overreacted to a short hot streak and the glow of a World Series title (even though Rosario wasn't all that good in the WS itself) and it hasn't worked well for them. Maybe Eddie gets how again in August (he was not good in July after coming back from the injury) but it seems highly unlikely that he'll be worth the $9M they're paying him.

I'm hoping Sano goes on a tear and gives the team a lift as a power bat who draws a bunch of walks. He's a fine fit to DH and back up 1B right now, and hopefully can fit in to a lineup where he's not going to be playing every day. but even if he has a Rosario-esque run, I think the Twins will pay the buyout and move on, with Arraez & Kirilloff as the primary 1Bs next season. The roster crunch is real for position players and even with an amazing late season run, the price is too high and the risk too significant to roll it back with Sano.

I think the twins made the right decision in sending Celestino down: I like him a lot as a player and I think eventually he'll be a great fit as a 4th OF with all of our LH OF bats, his ability to play a quality CF, etc. But right now he's scuffling at the plate, has an option, and Gordon can step in to his shoes for now.

[bean5302]

1 hour ago, nicksaviking said:

For sure. Eddie Rosario's 33 games and NLCS performance with Atlanta just crossed my mind prior to posting. If Sano pulled that off, the Twins would at least consider his option.

Rosario did get 2yrs and $18MM for his run with Atlanta, but Rosario also had double Sano's WAR and provided more consistent value recently. I mean, worst case scenario, Rosario was always at least a role player whereas Sano is literally worse than a AAA replacement player across full seasons sometimes. Sano's track record is way uglier than I think people realize. He's been a scrub or worse than AAA in 3 of the past 4 seasons. The only season he's been worth rostering recently is 2019 with the juiced ball...
Rosario vs. Sano bWAR
2015 = 2.2 vs. 2.4
2016 = 1.2 vs. 0.3
2017 = 1.6 vs. 2.8
2018 = 4.3 vs. -0.4
2019 = 1.5 vs. 2.5
2020 = 1.2 vs. -0.1
2021 = 1.1 vs. 1.0

https://library.fangraphs.com/misc/war/

Scrub	0-1 WAR
Role Player	1-2 WAR
Solid Starter	2-3 WAR
Good Player	3-4 WAR
All-Star	4-5 WAR
Superstar	5-6 WAR
MVP	6+ WAR

I guess if I looked at it as technically an $11.25MM option (since the Twins are on the hook for $2.75MM regardless), yeah, no. Sano could absolutely light things up in the 2nd half and I don't think he'd get more than $6-8MM on a one year deal.

[TwinsChupacabra]

Have the Twins learned nothing?

 

[Battle ur tail off]

9 hours ago, bean5302 said:

The narrative that Arraez is some terrible black hole in the field is baffling to me since the metrics and logic don't really support the position. Arraez is fine at 2B and should be fine at 3B, though I certainly don't expect he'll win gold gloves at either position. Arraez doesn't have the range of Polanco, but has a better arm.

Depth is good... but it only helps when you need it. When starting caliber players aren't playing regularly because they're "depth" and a team has holes elsewhere which need to be filled, the depth is a liability.

Miranda -> Arraez -> Gordon -> Palacios -> Steer

The Twins are overloaded on infielder depth right now.

 

Watch the games. Aaraez is a terrible fielder. At 3B, I have more confidence in a high end high school kid than him. I don't care what metrics say, there are balls he doesn't even get to or offer at that most 3B make the play.

 

GREAT hitter, really poor fielder. If he has to play the field it needs to be right side where he has more time. 

[Bigfork Twins Guy]

Celestino going down was a good decision, although I could also see the logic with sending down Garlick.

I hope Sano will FINALLY start hitting line drives to right field on outside pitches and forget about pulling one 500 ft.  He has been told that his whole career and never listened.  Not taking that advice may have cost him a lengthy career.  It would be a pleasant surprise for him to do that the rest of the year and possibly cut down on the strikeouts at the same time.

If they look to trade him, possibly they can find a PTBNL deal where they select from a group of available players dependent on how he performs for his new team.  That would at least protect the Twins should he get hot for his new team this year.

[Battle ur tail off]

I also wonder if this is Sano's last dance with the Twins. That said, those saying he won't even be tendered a major league contract next year are off the mark IMO. 

For the league minimum, he offers alot of upside. My guess is he will find a one-year deal from someone without any problem at all if he shows any kind of anything these last couple months. 

[SwainZag]

52 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Are not going to or haven't been? Kirilloff and Polanco recently returned and Sano has just been added now. Considering the "DH" position, there are 5 infield/DH positions. I see 7 every day players who need at bats. Honestly, I'd like to see Palacios playing at the MLB level, but he's not on the 40 man because he got screwed by the COVID protocols allowing him to be added and removed from the 40 man without exposure to waivers. Steer is also not on the 40 man so seeing him in September would be more complicated as well, but both Palacios and Steer deserve some time in the lineup.
Sano
Kirilloff
Polanco
Arraez
Correa
Miranda
Urshela

Larnach could return as early as a couple weeks from now as well so that complicates the DH situation as well.
 

Where would you play Palacios?  He's got a great glove, but unless you are sitting Correa, he belongs nowhere near the Twins lineup.  Steer has rose through the ranks quickly, but he has played 24 games at AAA.  He isn't going to supplant anyone in the current 7 you listed.

Polanco-Correa-Urshela are your everyday 2B-SS-3B.  Arraez and Kirilloff both struggle against LHP.  With a lefty on the mound Garlick can start in LF, Miranda at 1B and Sano DH.  Against RHP, Kirilloff can play LF and two of Arraez/Miranda/Sano at 1B/DH.  When Buck needs to DH, then you make decisions.  

 

[Riverbrian]

56 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Are not going to or haven't been? Kirilloff and Polanco recently returned and Sano has just been added now. Considering the "DH" position, there are 5 infield/DH positions. I see 7 every day players who need at bats. Honestly, I'd like to see Palacios playing at the MLB level, but he's not on the 40 man because he got screwed by the COVID protocols allowing him to be added and removed from the 40 man without exposure to waivers. Steer is also not on the 40 man so seeing him in September would be more complicated as well, but both Palacios and Steer deserve some time in the lineup.
Sano
Kirilloff
Polanco
Arraez
Correa
Miranda
Urshela

Larnach could return as early as a couple weeks from now as well so that complicates the DH situation as well.
 

In my opinion of course, Nobody goes into the "Haven't Been" column. Everybody has gotten significant playing time including Nick Gordon. The only real playing time casualties have been Garlick and Celestino when being utilized on the short side of the platoon. Celestino has gotten a lot of work against RH's due to injuries though.  

Sano joining the roster will move Kirilloff into more OF play to keep his bat in the lineup and get Sano some AB's.

Miranda DH, 1B, 3B,

Ushela 3B, DH,

Kirilloff 1B, LF, RF, DH

Sano 1B, DH combined produce plenty of combinations that keep everybody reasonably fed.

Arraez is the guy that you got to feed as much as possible and he is available to get some playing time at DH, 1B, 3B and 2B. 

I think there will be plenty of playing time for all going forward, nobody will get splinters and that's good because we don't know who is going to get hurt next but whoever it is... we got a decent replacement for whoever it is and a replacement that won't be coming in cold. 

I love Depth.  

[Thebigalguy]

The exciting thing about Sano is that he's streaky and might be hot right now, which could make a difference on a team that leaves too many RISP. Buxton, remember, only batted .166 this July with an injury and old, bad habits reasserting themselves at the plate but nobody's complaining except me because his power and bad ball hitting  sometimes save the day, but he has an act that needs cleaning up once his knee feels better. Sano at his best would be a godsend in August, or good trade bait if he's hot this week. Que sera sera. What will be will be.

[stringer bell]

Arraez is okay at 3B IMHO and depending on what happens with Urshela (non-tender or trade) and Miranda (trade candidate at the deadline)he might get a lot of time there next year. Having guys who are serviceable at several positions is nice. Finding guys who are good to great fielders at key positions (Correa, Buxton) is even better. 

[stringer bell]

There is only one week until the trade deadline. Not much time for Miggy to turn heads. It would appear this will be his last run with the Twins. Let’s hope he has some big hits left for the stretch run. 

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, bean5302 said:

both Palacios and Steer deserve some time in the lineup.

Palacios and Steer are starting at the correct level for their development. Palacios almost has a 750 OPS in AAA. Steer has been playing well but he isn't owning AAA like Kirilloff did. His batting line is actually a little worse than Caleb Hamilton.

[SwainZag]

4 hours ago, umterp23 said:

Roster is in flux.  Sano, don 't trust him whatsoever at the moment, regardless of what he did at AAA.  Kepler is the key with pinky bone contusion on right foot.  Last time we heard bone contusion was Jeffers with actually a broken bone in his thumb.  

So if Kepler is out for a period of games, then Kiriloff goes to outfield and Sano gets his chance to swing for the fences for his career at 1B.  

Buxton is out for a few more days, then OF is AAA quality at best.

Next couple days is key to see how Rocco can manage walking wounded

 

Has there been any indication that Buxton or Kepler will miss any time?  

[PopRiveter]

I think our best hope is that he comes back hot and helps fuel a pennant push and stays as a playoff contributor. Power plays in the postseason and a hot Sano would be a HUGE asset. It feels like a longshot today, but his hot streaks are dominant when they happen and they actually happen. Remember? 

We can complain all we want right now, but this decision has to be made on the basis of 2022, not the future. In 2022, rolling the dice on Sano has a chance of a much higher payoff than what could be hoped from Celestino, and honestly more than what we could hope from most bats that could become available on the trade market. 

[Mike Sixel]

2 hours ago, bighat said:

I hear ya Geez, but the Twins would likely have to pay GMs to take those guys off our hands. Nobody's going to want any of them in a trade.

Kepler is in the honorable mentions of fangraphs trade value series...... But no rebuilding team wants those players. 

[mrtwinsfan]

Sano has had his share of chances, Every time he has been injured or for what ever reason ? not being in the Line up, Why has he never used his time to improve his Body health?  He has no one to BLAME. Management has coddled this guy to the point of no return, An here we are all hoping he can help again, Hey Sano do you see this is your LAST chance, its all on Sano.  , Batter up ???????????????

[randy_moist]

I'm not a Miguel Sano fan because of the off field stuff. I would have preferred if they never extended him.

In the current circumstances, he should play everyday until the trade deadline. If he can get hot enough to convince another team he's capable of hitting at his career rates, there's the potential for the Twins to make a good trade. Several contenders (from my memory from looking at rosters: Atlanta, Mets, Mariners, Houston, and a couple others I can't recall) have 1B/DH holes that Sano would be a clear upgrade at. The tight window means he needs to play daily and well. Nothing is guaranteed, but the few lost PAs for other players won't matter much in the long term.

Many of those teams are pitching rich, and given the Twins can eat the remaining money, there's no reason they can't get a FA to be middle relief pitcher back. All that player has to do is clear the Pagan bar tbh. It's a small investment of playing time for a marginal return, but it could save prospect capital. It could be one of the cheapest, least painful ways for these contenders to fill the hole too.

[bean5302]

 

2 hours ago, DJL44 said:

Palacios and Steer are starting at the correct level for their development. Palacios almost has a 750 OPS in AAA. Steer has been playing well but he isn't owning AAA like Kirilloff did. His batting line is actually a little worse than Caleb Hamilton.

I was surprised the Twins were able to sign Palacios to a MiLB contract last year. Very surprised. While you look at his 750 OPS over the season, Palacios didn't show the pop in his bat to start. He's been hitting .798 at OPS (as a shortstop) wRC+ 113 I think, for the past couple months. I don't think it's reasonable to demand a shortstop to hit at an elite level. Palacios is also in his 2nd year of MiLB free agency and just turned age 26. There's really no development left. He's either worth a roster spot as a UI or shortstop or he's not and he's burning options at this point.

I don't mind of Steer stays down provided his numbers don't trend up, but he's going to need to be added to the 40 man this year or he'll be lost in the Rule 5. He still has all his options after this year, but he's not young, either. Steer will hit age 25 at the beginning of December.

[howeda7]

18 hours ago, jorgenswest said:

Is there a level of performance where the Twins should retain their control of Sano for next year?

I think I would focus on the strikeout rate, walk rate and exit velocity. Those were already better than career norms in April. They need to continue in that trend. His April launch angle of 31.3 isn’t going to lead to success and that must drop.

No. Even if he hits .275 with 20 HR the rest of the year, no one will give him $14 million in FA, so there's no way the Twins should pick up his option. Period.

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, bean5302 said:

Palacios is also in his 2nd year of MiLB free agency and just turned age 26. There's really no development left. He's either worth a roster spot as a UI or shortstop or he's not and he's burning options at this point.

His options should all remain considering he's never been on the 40 man roster. If there isn't any development left then I guess he's not going to make it. His bat isn't good enough to start in the big leagues and there are a lot of utility infielder options for teams every offseason. Look at Tim Beckham, for example. Beckham is destroying AAA pitching and can't get a call-up.