Article: Accelerating the Rebuild Timeline

[cmathewson]

It's fascinating how less than a month of regular season play has changed both short-term and long-term expectations. Nobody realistically expects the Twins to make the playoffs this year, but .500 is now looking like a goal that could be within reach. The timeframe for contention has also shortened from 2015-16 to 2014-15. Perhaps the Twins front office is not as clueless as many were suggesting this off-season?

 

In reference to Hicks getting his feet wet in the majors this year, the cynic in me can't help but observe that it's not just his feet that are wet, but his whole body - diving into the deep end of the pool, where the water is over your head, will do that to you.

 

I know a lot of people on this board were looking at 70 wins or less. And Vegas agreed with them. But I never understood that. They were basing their conclusions on last year's rotation, which was an utter disaster, mostly due to injuries and lack of depth.

 

You can't look at this rotation and say it is no better than last year's with a straight face. I doubt if Correia's line is sustainable. But other guys have plenty of room to step up. Diamond and Gibson e.g. Worley has had only one good start. Pelfrey's labored. And there's a lot of guys waiting for opportunities if he doesn't turn the corner. In short, they're getting about what you would expect by way of starting pitching at this stage, and they should improve. I said it before the season and I'll say it again, I see no reason to think this team will not be a .500 team at the end of the year.

[fairweather]

"When healthy, Joe Mauer is one of baseball’s elite players, and a fitting centerpiece for a championship-caliber team."- I couldn't disagree more. 1 season he's performed at that level. Has he only been healthy 1 season?

[Mike Sixel]

How does investing in an Ace kill a rebuild?

[James]

"When healthy, Joe Mauer is one of baseball’s elite players, and a fitting centerpiece for a championship-caliber team."- I couldn't disagree more. 1 season he's performed at that level. Has he only been healthy 1 season?

So exactly how many times do you have to win a batting title before you're considered elite then? Three times isn't enough? Because I'd rate those as elite seasons too. I would go as far as to say any player with a career batting line of .324/.406/.874 should be considered elite.

[ThePuck]

So exactly how many times do you have to win a batting title before you're considered elite then? Three times isn't enough? Because I'd rate those as elite seasons too. I would go as far as to say any player with a career batting line of .324/.406/.874 should be considered elite.

 

For some, only HR and RBI make you elite...and taking into account position is irrelevant...

[70charger]

"When healthy, Joe Mauer is one of baseball’s elite players, and a fitting centerpiece for a championship-caliber team."- I couldn't disagree more. 1 season he's performed at that level. Has he only been healthy 1 season?

 

Your schtick is getting old.

[PseudoSABR]

How does investing in an Ace kill a rebuild?

The money committed combined with the health risk. There's a whole list of pitchers who sign mega-deal, only to become a payroll burden almost immediately...

[Mike Sixel]

So, picking the wrong ace, then. Much like, I don't know, picking wrong at number 4 this year, or using all of your draft picks on relief pitchers?

 

Where, exactly, do you see them spending the money, if not on a FA over the next 6 years? The entire roster outside of Mauer will be near the league minimum, and they get $25MM for free next year.

 

And, even if they totally guess wrong, and the player is bad, they still have plenty of money to pay 95% of the roster near the league minimum.

[Pitz]

This all depends on several things...

 

...There will be other teams also interested in Willingham or Morneau.

 

 

This is my main point. The Rangers aren't likely to move any of their prospects (for aging players) until something is determined one way or the other regarding Stanton and Price. Despite there middle infield depth, right now I don't think the Rangers are a good trade partner for the Twins because of that. Fans should probably be looking elsewhere for those other teams interested in Willingham/Morneau...

 

...or maybe it could be more prudent for the Twins to hold on to them as suggested earlier in this thread. This could be a difficult decision the Twins have to make and is definitely an important one. It will be interesting to see how this season plays out. Hopefully fun to watch and fun to discuss!

[jay]

The money committed combined with the health risk. There's a whole list of pitchers who sign mega-deal, only to become a payroll burden almost immediately...

 

This is true, but there are examples where it doesn't prevent contention. See: Zito, Barry and the 2010/2012 WS Champions. Granted, even that example proves you have to have inexpensive, dominant pitching...

 

I'd be perfectly okay with moving Morneau or Willingham for another SP prospect with an eye on generating our window from beginning in '14 to wide open in '15-'17.

[PseudoSABR]

So, picking the wrong ace, then. Much like, I don't know, picking wrong at number 4 this year, or using all of your draft picks on relief pitchers?

 

Where, exactly, do you see them spending the money, if not on a FA over the next 6 years? The entire roster outside of Mauer will be near the league minimum, and they get $25MM for free next year.

 

And, even if they totally guess wrong, and the player is bad, they still have plenty of money to pay 95% of the roster near the league minimum.

It's not about being lucky, it's about being risk adverse. I'm suggesting that there's a huge risk in investing hundred of millions into any arm. I'm not sure the Twins are ever going to do that for any player other than homegrown ones.

 

Honestly, I'm not sure that the Twins will spend that money, unless a player really gives them favorable terms (like Josh Johnson returning home); I don't doubt that they will spend money on starting pitching, I'm just not sure we can expect them to go out and get a Grienke like player. I can also see the Twins resigning Morneau.

[PseudoSABR]

This is true, but there are examples where it doesn't prevent contention. See: Zito, Barry and the 2010/2012 WS Champions. Granted, even that example proves you have to have inexpensive, dominant pitching...

 

I'd be perfectly okay with moving Morneau or Willingham for another SP prospect with an eye on generating our window from beginning in '14 to wide open in '15-'17.

Right, but SF has been able to develop a succession of front end pitching, which is the real success of their formula. It's kind of incredible that the Zito deal didn't hamstring them.

[DaveW]

Right, but SF has been able to develop a succession of front end pitching, which is the real success of their formula. It's kind of incredible that the Zito deal didn't hamstring them.

 

Anyteam can over come one bad contract, it's when you start talking about multiple bad contracts when things get dicey

[PseudoSABR]

Anyteam can over come one bad contract, it's when you start talking about multiple bad contracts when things get dicey

Mauer's a great player. But before long his will be a bad contract. I just don't see the Twins carrying two 20 million dollar players over the next several years...

[cmathewson]

So, picking the wrong ace, then. Much like, I don't know, picking wrong at number 4 this year, or using all of your draft picks on relief pitchers?

 

Yes, that's the key. The Mets invested so heavily in Santana, they basically were done for. (That, and their owners were Bernie Madoff's best clients.) The history doesn't really look too good on long-term $100+ million contracts for pitchers. Find me one that worked, and I'd give you a gold star.

 

None of the guys who were available this past offseason were worth it. Greinke was the best guy out there and he is almost guaranteed not to be worth it. The Tigers and Mariners signed their guys before they became available. Those two have the best shot at justifying investing in an ace.

 

All that said, if Price wants to come pitch for us at a reasonable rate, I'd have him. If there's ever an argument for going for it, it's after this year, when there are some decent guys available.

[halfchest]

46.25 Million. Right now that is the Twins payroll obligations for next year. Now that doesn't take into account any arb. eligible or minimum players but even with them figured in which includes Worley, Plouffe, Swarzak, and Roenicke as 1st year Arbitration and Duensing and Butera as 2nd year arbitration cases. I can't see any of these guys breaking the bank. Maybe Worley and Plouffe get paid decent but I'm thinking even with all these guys the Twins will be sitting at around 55-60 million in salary before any free agent or trade acquisitions.

 

I don't see the Twins signing an Ace ever. I hate to say it I just don't think they will and I'm not sure they should. Now by an Ace I'm talking a 100 million or more free agent who is an absolute top 20 pitcher in the league when they sign. Guys like Greinke, CC, Cliff Lee, Halladay. However, next year there are a number of guys who could be great upgrades over most of our rotation in the form of Josh Johnson, Dan Haren, TIM LINCECUM!!! (if he ever returns to form). Ubaldo Jiminez, and a few others.

 

While none of these guys are true Aces right now, unless Lincecum rediscovers his past form, they all could be a good #2ish veteran starters that could round out a nice rotation with Diamond, Meyer, Gibson, Worley, and May there to fill the rest of the rotation out. It seems they'll have some moola next year and it will have to go somewhere.

 

Sadly the collection of positional free agents is uninspiring to say the least so it really wouldn't surprise me to see the Twins spend on some pitching next year. Then again, I thought that would happen this past offseason and it just meant pelfrey and Correia.

[Mike Sixel]

The FA list upcoming years is going to be really sad, expect payrolls under 70MM for years, and that's with one guy making $23MM....

[Mike Sixel]

What's the risk in signing bargain basement players every time you sign a guy? How's all the pitching working out they have signed as FAs the last decade?

 

You gotta play to win. If they really aren't interested in playing, they should not have asked for my tax dollars.

[Thrylos]

I pretty much agree with this article; the Twins look to have a bright future and the future is soon.

 

I would probably add a fourth pitcher to the list: DJ Baxendale who, based on what I saw from him this spring training and the way he has been pitching in Fort Myers so far this season, he would probably be the second best SP prospect in my list (after Meyer) at this point. Move to AA this season, to AAA to begin the next and to the Twins to end, is not out of the question (the Sano/Rosario path).

 

I think that the Twins can accelerate the future but I cannot see it happening before 2015, unless several players have breakthrough 2014 seasons. They got to be smart and trade people over the hill and with 1-2 years left to the contracts (Morneau, Willingham, Doumit, Carroll) and potentially get some value. Also, they need to figure out whether to add prospects to such trades and quit holding on to mid-tier prospects like Hermsen, Baresford, (or even Hendriks) etc who are not going to be stars in the majors, to get better value in trades...

[ThePuck]

The history doesn't really look too good on long-term $100+ million contracts for pitchers. Find me one that worked, and I'd give you a gold star.

 

 

Sabathia? Lee?

 

Then again, there aren't too many to choose from...

[halfchest]

The FA list upcoming years is going to be really sad, expect payrolls under 70MM for years, and that's with one guy making $23MM....

 

There are a few decent at best names coming out next year for starting pitchers in Haren, Garza (not gonna sign here), Phil Hughes, Gavin Floyd, Ubaldo Jiminez, etc. and I don't see much point in looking to 2015 yet as a lot of those guys will get resigned before free agency hits.

 

It will be interesting to see if they go after one of the better names on that list or not. It kinda makes me think they might just hold onto Willingham since they'll have the payroll room if they want. Assume you've got Hicks and Arcia in 2014 with Parmelee switching to 1B, then you may as well continue to have Willingham play RF unless you can get good enough value for him.

[cmathewson]

Sabathia? Lee?

 

Then again, there aren't too many to choose from...

 

And you get a gold star. Sabathia gives me hope for Price, but let's be real. He'll get Verlander money. Nobody should get Verlander money.

[Mike Sixel]

sorry, I think I got us off track.......................I'm going to do my best to ignore most threads for awhile that aren't about specific players or games, I think. I feel like I (and others) are running in circles.

[LaBombo]

It's fascinating how less than a month of regular season play has changed both short-term and long-term expectations. Nobody realistically expects the Twins to make the playoffs this year, but .500 is now looking like a goal that could be within reach. The timeframe for contention has also shortened from 2015-16 to 2014-15. Perhaps the Twins front office is not as clueless as many were suggesting this off-season?

 

In reference to Hicks getting his feet wet in the majors this year, the cynic in me can't help but observe that it's not just his feet that are wet, but his whole body - diving into the deep end of the pool, where the water is over your head, will do that to you.

Anybody significantly increasing either long or even short term expectations based on the Twins finishing 10 percent of their season with the worst run differential in the AL Central is... well, I guess the polite term would be aggressively optimistic.

 

And if you were really cynical about Hicks, you could have compared his MLB debut to drowning instead of just immersion. At any rate, it will be interesting to see how long he can sustain a walk rate above 15% with a batting average below .100 and K's in a third of his AB's.

[snepp]

Your schtick is getting old.

 

"Getting" old?

[iastfan112]

Looks like wishful thinking to me. Pitching depth is still very poor- pitchers get hurt, or struggle once promoted to the Majors. The Twins don't have much in the way of catching or middle infield prospects. Prospects in general are risky bets, even highly-rated ones.

 

There is potential to turn things around in the foreseeable future, but it is dependent on unknown events (e.g., the #4 pick in the draft, future trades, etc.). The Twins' recent performance doesn't really inspire complete confidence in a flawless rebuild.

 

Actually pitching doesn't look that terrible to me:

Worley and Diamond look like reasonable depth in the rotation

As far as pitching prospects go, Meyer and Gibson are reasonable bets to be contributers to the rotation.

Add another quality arm from FA and you have a servicable rotation with a number of interesting arms behind(May, Hendricks, Berrios, one or several of the former college relief arms).

 

Even MI is looking stronger prospect wise then it has the past decade or so with Rosario, Polanco and Goodrum all being intriguing. I've always felt pretty good about Dozier as well. If Escobar or Florimon somehow worked out, great.

[SockNet]

Competing in Mauer's prime is over with. The management is always "building for the future" and never embraces the now. Two years from now if we are in contention and need one piece to make a legit run, they wont make the trade. They didn't in 2010 when they just needed one more decent starting pitcher. I'm of the opinion that if they go all in for a few years when we are close and at least get to the WS, the fan base will be forgiving for the couple years the farm is depleted. Its better that being the best bad team in a bad division that doesn't really deserve to be in the play offs because the East has 3 teams with a better record and the west has 2.

[ashbury]

At any rate, it will be interesting to see how long he can sustain a walk rate above 15% with a batting average below .100 and K's in a third of his AB's.

 

I don't think anyone expects this. That's because we're seeing A Tale Of Two Seasons, written in ultra-small-sample-size:

 

April 1-13: 46 PA, 2 H, 3 BB, 20 SO, 3 R

April 15-23: 21 PA, 2 H, 8 BB, 2 SO, 5 R

 

Potential explanation: word quickly got around the league, "don't give this guy *anything* good to hit, because he'll get himself out". Around April 14, coaching and Hicks had some kind of meeting of minds, and after that he stopped going after so much of the slop outside of the strike zone. You don't get hits on those kinds of pitches, so the results are not fully there yet. But when word gets around the league again, pitchers will decide a .476 OBP is not in their interest, particularly for a speedy baserunner, and better pitches to hit will be offered. It remains to be seen whether Hicks will capitalize.

[ThejacKmp]

I believe Mauer was fully healthy last year as well and had an awesome year. Great WAR, best OPS around, 300+ average. Now he is off to another great start. Nobody is blabbing that HE HAS to move from catcher and/or his career is in jeapordy. Still there is whining - He doesn't hit enough homers, he walks to much instead of going for the big hit and he doesn't play enough at catcher. Bleh.

 

Double bleh. A bleh in their faces.

[kab21]

Is the rebuild accelerated to the point where you consider keeping Morneau and Willingham or one or the other? Will Morneau outproduce Parmelee over the next three years, and if so, at what cost will it become prohibitive? If Willingham doesn't stick around to DH, whose going to take most of that at bats there, a rotation of players who have more value when they are in the field?

 

 

Trading Willingham is part of the accelerated rebuild imo since he should bring back a good prospect (preferably pitching or MI). Trading Morneau isn't as necessary because I don't think he will net a significant prosepct. It does make sense to trade him if that's the only way to get Parmelee/Arcia playing time.

 

There are some that consider burn it to the ground style rebuilds as the only correct way to rebuild but I disagree. it's fine to have veterans as long as they don't block prospects and they don't have long term burdensome contracts. they also become tradeable assets (like Willingham or Perkins) but some might not be valuable to trade (Morneau, Doumit, Burton for example).