Article: Accelerating the Rebuild Timeline

[Nick Nelson]

You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?r=1619-Accelerating-the-Rebuild-Timeline

[Shane Wahl]

Good article, though some analysis of the infield over the next few years would help.

[glunn]

Good article, though some analysis of the infield over the next few years would help.

 

This article is well written and encouraging.

 

Like Shane, I wonder about the infield, but at the moment I am hopeful that Dozier will provide a solution at 2B, and I like how Escobar seems to come through in the clutch. Also, Eddie Rosario seems promising -- maybe he will be ready to come up at the same time as Sano?

 

Obviously there is a lot that might go wrong -- injuries, setbacks and failures to adjust to a promotion. But I think that Nick has made a credible case for the proposition that the Twins could be an elite team within a very few years.

 

One final point -- it might be wise to try to acquire some high ceiling catching prospects, because no one know how long Mauer will hold up at that position and Doumit seems like a temporary solution.

[AlwaysinModeration]

I agree with the premise of this article. The next contending team doesn't need to be far away, and Mauer's window is soon.

 

If the Twins trade Morneau and Willingham...perhaps landing a SS prospect (Texas has three legit SS prospects, I think) and SP prospect, and grab a college arm in the draft, that could be three more pieces for a quick rebuild.

[Pitz]

I agree with the premise of this article. The next contending team doesn't need to be far away, and Mauer's window is soon.

 

If the Twins trade Morneau and Willingham...perhaps landing a SS prospect (Texas has three legit SS prospects, I think) and SP prospect, and grab a college arm in the draft, that could be three more pieces for a quick rebuild.

 

 

There's been a couple time that I've thought it would be great if the Twins could get one of the Rangers SS prospects. However, I think the Rangers have their sights set much higher than Morneau and Willingham. I highly doubt that they will move any of their top prospects while Stanton and Price are potentially on the trading block.

[SeanS7921]

I believe Mauer was fully healthy last year as well and had an awesome year. Great WAR, best OPS around, 300+ average. Now he is off to another great start. Nobody is blabbing that HE HAS to move from catcher and/or his career is in jeapordy. Still there is whining - He doesn't hit enough homers, he walks to much instead of going for the big hit and he doesn't play enough at catcher. Bleh.

[DaveW]

I believe Mauer was fully healthy last year as well and had an awesome year. Great WAR, best OPS around, 300+ average. Now he is off to another great start. Nobody is blabbing that HE HAS to move from catcher and/or his career is in jeapordy. Still there is whining - He doesn't hit enough homers, he walks to much instead of going for the big hit and he doesn't play enough at catcher. Bleh.

 

The dude gets on base 44% of the time and has a .959 OPS, anyone who would whine about that is a moron and should probably not bring children into this world.

[snepp]

The dude gets on base 44% of the time and has a .959 OPS, anyone who would whine about that is a moron and should probably not bring children into this world.

 

One of these days you're going to quit beating around the bush and tell us how you really feel.

[jimbo92107]

Add to that the fact that Aaron Hicks and Brian Dozier are finally emerging from their early season batting slumps, and things are looking bright indeed.

 

Dare I say, "dynasty?"

 

On a more serious note, I watch baseball for the entertainment value, not just to see the team win all the time. Things usually go wrong even with the best laid plans, but meanwhile it will be fun watching the new kids and the veterans cause a ruckus in the division.

 

This season I look forward to witnessing some good defensive plays, while the new kid, Arcia, brings some much-needed power to this previously punch-less platoon. It was a good sign that his first home run landed near the base of the same flag pole that Jim Thome hit on Memorial Day a few years back. Good hit, kid.

 

Of course, Thome hit the top of that flag pole... ;-)

[Nick Nelson]

I believe Mauer was fully healthy last year as well and had an awesome year. Great WAR, best OPS around, 300+ average. Now he is off to another great start.

I think you’re mostly right, but I didn’t get the sense that Mauer fully had his strength back over the first couple months last year. I mean, he was slugging .399 on June 1. In the latter part of the season he really seemed to hit his stride and added eight more homers the rest of the way, which is a relatively high number for him. This year he’s already gone deep twice – he didn’t hit his second homer until May 24 last year. He’s also playing catcher a lot more than he did last year.

[kab21]

There's been a couple time that I've thought it would be great if the Twins could get one of the Rangers SS prospects. However, I think the Rangers have their sights set much higher than Morneau and Willingham. I highly doubt that they will move any of their top prospects while Stanton and Price are potentially on the trading block.

 

Profar/Andrus are completely out of the question but toolsy A ball prospects (Sardinas and Odor) are in play for guys like Willingham and Morneau. That of course depends on guys like Cruz and Berkman suffering their yearly injuries while Willingham and/or Morneau stay healthy and hit the ball.

 

I think the key that makes the accelerating title work is that Sano/Buxton/Rosario look like they could play at 2 levels this year while Meyer looks like he could become at least an ace-lite for the Twins.

 

Aside from Kepler's injury the only prospect disappointments have been hicks and Mays although I was hoping for more from Gibson.

[jay]

It seems like we've lost more dice rolls the last few years (injuries, SP failures, etc) than we've won. With the pipeline that's in place, we'll be a serious contender if a few of these prospects turn into boxcars (12's).

 

We've seen teams like the Royals struggle to turn a well-regarded farm system into MLB wins, so let's just hope we have enough rolls of the dice and can make the transition...

[Brock Beauchamp]

I think you’re mostly right, but I didn’t get the sense that Mauer fully had his strength back over the first couple months last year. I mean, he was slugging .399 on June 1. In the latter part of the season he really seemed to hit his stride and added eight more homers the rest of the way, which is a relatively high number for him. This year he’s already gone deep twice – he didn’t hit his second homer until May 24 last year. He’s also playing catcher a lot more than he did last year.

 

Yep. I think we'll see a return of the dominant Joe Mauer this season if he stays healthy. He struggled (by Joe Mauer's standards) early last season before picking it up.

 

He probably won't put up 2009 numbers but I think he can improve slightly on his 2010 numbers, which were still pretty outstanding considering how Target Field played that season.

[adjacent]

I agree that this could be a good team pretty soon. I don't like to use words like contender because that depends on a lot of things that are not under control. One key is health, especially health of the young pitchers (and of Mauer). A rotation of Meyer, May, Gibson, Diamond and whoever takes the fifth spot doesn't look too bad. As for the infield, if the team looks good, you can always plug a hole with a free agent. By the way, I know it is too early to say, but Escobar is looking better and better.

[Riverbrian]

 

I watch baseball for the entertainment value, not just to see the team win all the time. Things usually go wrong even with the best laid plans, but meanwhile it will be fun watching the new kids and the veterans cause a ruckus in the division.

 

 

I couldn't agree more... You and I are seemingly part of a very small club though.

[DaveW]

I think you’re mostly right, but I didn’t get the sense that Mauer fully had his strength back over the first couple months last year. I mean, he was slugging .399 on June 1. In the latter part of the season he really seemed to hit his stride and added eight more homers the rest of the way, which is a relatively high number for him. This year he’s already gone deep twice – he didn’t hit his second homer until May 24 last year. He’s also playing catcher a lot more than he did last year.

 

Ding ding! It's nice to see him fully healthy, and other than a dreadful series in Kansas City Joe has been on fire.

 

It's amazing how much better this team is when he is producing like that. We all like to nitpick the ever living **** out of everything on here and its nice to be reminded that, hey at least we have one of the best catchers of all time playing for us!

[nicksaviking]

For an early rebuild into contention this team still needs another close to MLB ready top of the rotation arm. Considering free agency will never be an option for this, the only alternatives would be to get lucky with a college arm early in the draft or get good value in a trade. It will be hard to justify trading a guy like Willingham however if this team remains marginally competitive though.

[kab21]

If the Twins end up with Mauer and a bunch of guys making the MLB min on offense then FA is definitely an option to acquire an ace. That's the benefit of having a bunch of prospects grouped closely together.

 

I already know that you will use the old 'the Twins have never spent a lot of money in FA' excuse but the Twins have only recently had a payroll above the league average. Since Target Field opened they have had payrolls full of moderately expensive vets (no payroll room) or an absolutely awful team where splurging big doesn't make sense at all.

[drivlikejehu]

Looks like wishful thinking to me. Pitching depth is still very poor- pitchers get hurt, or struggle once promoted to the Majors. The Twins don't have much in the way of catching or middle infield prospects. Prospects in general are risky bets, even highly-rated ones.

 

There is potential to turn things around in the foreseeable future, but it is dependent on unknown events (e.g., the #4 pick in the draft, future trades, etc.). The Twins' recent performance doesn't really inspire complete confidence in a flawless rebuild.

[Mike Sixel]

I hope it is accelrated. I have no interest in 5 years of futility......

 

But I think the margin for error is tiny. Every prospect has to work out. An actual good FA has to hit the market, and they have to sign him. There just isn't a lot of backup plan (and in some cases, there is no real primary plan).

 

Let's hope they do somehow accelerate things. It would be more fun that way.

[cmathewson]

This is a good argument to move Gibson up sooner rather than later. Some were calling for Hendriks to return. I don't think we'll see that any time soon. He's had four opportunities in the last year. Time to give Gibson a shot when a spot opens up, which could happen after Saturday's Rangers game with Hernandez on the mound.

[IdahoPilgrim]

It's fascinating how less than a month of regular season play has changed both short-term and long-term expectations. Nobody realistically expects the Twins to make the playoffs this year, but .500 is now looking like a goal that could be within reach. The timeframe for contention has also shortened from 2015-16 to 2014-15. Perhaps the Twins front office is not as clueless as many were suggesting this off-season?

 

In reference to Hicks getting his feet wet in the majors this year, the cynic in me can't help but observe that it's not just his feet that are wet, but his whole body - diving into the deep end of the pool, where the water is over your head, will do that to you.

[Mike Sixel]

So, if .500 is in reach, how much better off would they be if they signed a legit FA or two? This is why Dave Cameron says teams should never punt on a season.....

[IdahoPilgrim]

So, if .500 is in reach, how much better off would they be if they signed a legit FA or two? This is why Dave Cameron says teams should never punt on a season.....

 

Given the performances from Correia so far, one can make the case that he was indeed a "legit FA" signing. And I recall quite a few people in these forums advocating not just punting 2013 but 2014 as well.

 

Just sayin'...

[kab21]

So, if .500 is in reach, how much better off would they be if they signed a legit FA or two? This is why Dave Cameron says teams should never punt on a season.....

 

Dave Cameron says a lot of things. This is the same person that criticized the Twins for paying 'a lot of money' to Kubel (2/7 guaranteed) because a 'similar' player (Hinske) was signed for a lower cost. I will agree that punting isn't smart but that doesn't mean that you stray from a long term plan. You also don't stray from that plan based on a hot start that likely results in a 70-75 win season regardless.

[Pitz]

Profar/Andrus are completely out of the question but toolsy A ball prospects (Sardinas and Odor) are in play for guys like Willingham and Morneau. That of course depends on guys like Cruz and Berkman suffering their yearly injuries while Willingham and/or Morneau stay healthy and hit the ball.

 

We are in agreement over Profar/Andrus. While Sardinas or Odor for Hammer/Morny might be a fair value, my point is that I don't think the Rangers will really trade any of their pieces when they likely have a guy like Stanton or Price in mind. Would you trade those A ball ceiling guys for post prime players, if you knew you might be able to use them for superstars in their prime? They might not need to be included in the deal, but the Rangers also won't want to leave their system bare if they do make a play for those elite guys.

[TheLeviathan]

This touched on a lot of good reasons and none drew on a small sample size of a surprising (and somewhat lucky given our SP) start to the season. I think even pie-in-the-sky optimists would have struggled to predict Arcia up this soon. Couple that with ridiculous domination from a few of our best specs and there is reason to be hopeful.

 

All that said it worries me that two potential chips to further that rebuild ( Moreau and Hammer) are somewhat subpar so far. Their turnaround and trade vale could have a huge impact in this plan.

[kab21]

We are in agreement over Profar/Andrus. While Sardinas or Odor for Hammer/Morny might be a fair value, my point is that I don't think the Rangers will really trade any of their pieces when they likely have a guy like Stanton or Price in mind. Would you trade those A ball ceiling guys for post prime players, if you knew you might be able to use them for superstars in their prime? They might not need to be included in the deal, but the Rangers also won't want to leave their system bare if they do make a play for those elite guys.

 

This all depends on several things.

 

Actually landing a guy like Stanton or Price is the big one. Neither of these guys might end up being available and there will definitely be a lot of competition for them. If they don't land an elite guy they could be very tempted to go after Willingham for a pretty solid prospect package (more than Sardinas) or Morneau for one high risk A/rk ball player.

 

In addition they might not want to move Profar at all since going after Price or Stanton would still require gutting the farm system even if they use Profar as the main piece. If they want to keep their top prospects then it might make sense trading a couple of high risk guys that are ranked #6-20 in their system. They also have a lot of these high risk lottery ticket prospects in their farm system.

 

There will be other teams also interested in Willingham or Morneau.

[ashbury]

It will be hard to justify trading a guy like Willingham however if this team remains marginally competitive though.

 

Even if Arcia isn't good enough already to quite stay with the team, there's a mild logjam at the corner outfield positions. If Willingham could bring them a starting pitcher, the team might be better poised for a mild/premature playoff run with Wilkin in the outfield and whatever pitcher Willingham might fetch for the rotation.

[PseudoSABR]

Is the rebuild accelerated to the point where you consider keeping Morneau and Willingham or one or the other? Will Morneau outproduce Parmelee over the next three years, and if so, at what cost will it become prohibitive? If Willingham doesn't stick around to DH, whose going to take most of that at bats there, a rotation of players who have more value when they are in the field?

 

Investing in an "Ace" can be a quick way to kill a rebuild too. Though, it's hard not to covet a certain Bluejay pitcher with hometown roots...