Do the Twins Have Anything to Trade?

[Ted Schwerzler]

With the Major League Baseball Trade Deadline moved to August 2 this year, the Minnesota Twins have nine games left before the opportunity to acquire talent comes and goes. There’s no denying Derek Falvey and Thad Levine have work to do in that area, but how realistic is it that they have the talent to move?

Now, to be completely fair, the Minnesota Twins farm system has plenty of talent. While the group may not be topping charts across the league as a whole, there’s a glut of future Major Leaguers within the ranks. The larger question here is to what extent are Minnesota’s prospects coveted by other organizations, and what can they realistically bring in return.

That question is not easy because so many of the Twins top prospects have recently graduated. Jose Mirnada is thriving at the Major League level. Alex Kirilloff looks healthy and competitive. Gilberto Celestino may be near his ceiling, but it’s clear he’s a capable big-league outfielder. Trevor Larnach is currently hurt, but has flashed being an impact bat. There shouldn’t be any desire to trade Royce Lewis, and Jhoan Duran may wind up as Minnesota’s best rookie. The top of the farm system is now being coached by Rocco Baldelli.

After recently updating my top 30 prospects following day one of the Major League Baseball Draft, each of Minnesota’s three picks has found their way into the group. I can’t imagine a scenario in which any of them are considered in a package right now, and that’s before considering the complications limiting any of them being moved.

At the top of the group, you find Austin Martin. Looking to increase his power potential, Martin has changed his swing and approach this season. What was once a high-average hitter is a guy posting a .691 OPS and no longer a shortstop. He’s far too young to suggest this is a bust, but the prospect luster around him when acquired in exchange for Jose Berrios has worn a bit.

Simeon Woods-Richardson has taken over for Jordan Balazovic as Minnesota’s top pitching prospect, but he’s currently on the injured list and his rebound has been just to the tune of 53 innings this season. Matt Canterino looks like he could be a dominant reliever, but there has to be a better string of health there. Speaking of Balazovic, he’s looked completely lost at Triple-A and couldn’t be dealt at a time where his value looks any lower.

Realistically speaking, the first two names that come to mind when constructing a trade package are Spencer Steer and Matt Wallner. The former is following a path similar to that of Miranda last season and has done incredibly well at both Double and Triple-A. Steer should absolutely be a name that the Twins start conversations with, but I don’t know that a recent addition to the back half of top 100 lists will be enough of a building block to land a big-name starter like Frankie Montas.

In Wallner, Minnesota has a better version of what Brent Rooker could have been. Wallner is a massive power bat that has made strides when it comes to controlling the strike zone. It will be interesting to see if he can keep that up while remaining at Triple-A, but there’s a saving grace in the outfield. Wallner isn’t exactly Max Kepler out there, but his massive arm provides plenty of assist opportunity. The Twins didn’t work him as a pitcher in pro ball, but that could be a fallback option for an acquiring team if need be.

Ultimately I think it’s evident that Minnesota has the pieces to acquire just about any amount of relief help they need. On the starting front though, especially the big-name talents, it’s hard to imagine a scenario in which prospects alone are enough to get a deal done.

View full article

[TwinsDr2021]

"Realistically speaking, the first two names that come to mind when constructing a trade package are Spencer Steer and Matt Wallner. The former is following a path similar to that of Miranda last season and has done incredibly well at both Double and Triple-A."

The difference I see with Steer/Wallner compared to Miranda is that Miranda is in the majors days before he turned 24, where Steer/Wallner will be 25 before they see their first major league action (unless they are called up this year).

I agree with this article the Twins prospects list has taken a pretty big hit with the top minor league pitchers not stepping up this year. So maybe the twins best trade-able prospects are the young pitchers (the ones under 23).

 

[Rosterman]

Everyone they would like to trade, no one would probably want. And those that people want, the Twins would be better off keeping.

[Dman]

With no real coveted pitching prospects to send in trade it looks like Minnesota comes up light for starting pitching at the deadline.  I think they have plenty of interesting guys for relievers though.  Also trades for starters generally are for the higher revenue teams who if the deal doesn't work out can buy their way out of it.  When Pittsburgh went all in for Archer and it didn't work it started a rebuild.  It isn't a road Tampa, Cleveland, or Oakland have traveled down with any success either.  It seems to go against the main philosophies of this FO if you ask me.

If Berrios is the model for a trade then it would take at least one top 100 player and another highly rated prospect or someone like Miranda, Larnach or Kirilloff plus a solid minor league pitcher to get a deal done.  The offer will have to be more attractive than what other teams are willing to put out there.  After giving up a bunch for a starter the Twins would still need to likely get two more relief arms as well depleting the farm even more.  It kind of feels like there are too many holes to fill IMO.

We will know in a couple of weeks what magic the FO can work to strengthen this team. 

[Kipp35]

The Twins have the resources to make a deal, what they do not have is the 'want' to make a deal. The Twins have always struggled in evaluating their own players. This is why we stuck with Sano and let Cron walk. Who couldn't see that a guy with no desire to stay in shape and loose weight would become an often injured and below performing player... just the Twins. He was our shiny little prospect and no one was going to tell us he wasn't 'the guy'. We just had to make up for Tom Kelly convincing the front office that David Ortiz was "Never going to amount to anything in baseball".

Teams like the Rays do an excellent job at evaluating their own players. If they know they are not going to be able to sign them, they trade them away when there is huge value and/or years of control. We do not do this; and don't bring up Berrios, because we missed a lot of value back for him. It was too in the know that he was not coming back. That does not lend to a team wanting to offer a lot when they know we are the one's that will get nothing when they hit FA.

The Twins are like a kid with a five dollar bill. They go to the candy store and go right to the counter. When they see that they could get one REALLY huge but awesome piece of candy for their $5, they turn their attention to the Nickle bin; and say 'look at how many little [crappy] pieces of candy I get get from here and I may can change coming back, too!' We will keep looking in the bargain [Nickle] bin and we will all be back here next year wondering if the Twins will be buyers or sellers. The fact is, it doesn't matter which they are. They screw up being a seller and won't go all-in when they are a buyer.

Figure out what this team needs [pitching] and then go make it happen. Stop saying 'we don't have what it takes to get [big name]. I guess we will have to wait until after the season to address.' The problem is you don't address it there, either! Carlos Correa was dropped in your lap by his agent. That was NOT the front office doing the work. But, he will be gone next season and we will man SS with a guy out for his second consecutive season with torn ligaments. When focused on Buxton's EXTENSION (meaning he was still under contract) while other teams were grabbing FA needs before the league locked down. Then the Twins had to scramble after the league opened back up. I applaud the deal with the Yankees, but that was a deal they were not prepared for. They just made a deal for Kiner-Falefa. It was noted he was going to be our starting SS. Then a deal fell in their laps. I would to see them extend both Urshela and Sanchez, but they won't; they're too smart for that.

Falvey and Levine are going to overthink this team right out of the postseason, and I hope themselves out of a job.

[bighat]

Let's be honest - it looks like there's no way the Twins could even consider adding a front line starter like Montas without parting with Royce Lewis. It looks like with Steer or Wallner, they might be able to get some middle relief - but even that would be just a rental.

The Twins need help and the cupboard is bare, with the exception of a huge, glistening, glorious hanging ham named Royce - who is unfortunately worth less than his peak value right now due to injury concerns.

Twins might also have to toss in Brooks Lee for anything major to happen here.

The farm could be picked clean...and if it is, let's hope the Twins really are going for the whole kit 'n kaboodle here in 2022.

[Twins reserve]

Miami has the pitchers and needs controllable hitters I particularly like Eury Perez and Max Meyer. Would the Twins part with Larnach, Steer and Polanco for these pitchers?   

[chpettit19]

The biggest problem the Twins have is the top of their pitching prospect list taking a nose dive this year. If those guys were performing well enough to be pieces in a trade for frontline starting pitching the Twins staff wouldn't be so bad because they'd already be on it. Canterino getting hurt again, Balazovic forgetting how to pitch, SWR crashing back to earth after a hot start before getting hurt, and the Sands/Strotman/Enlow types failing to take the next step has hurt the Twins in trade assets and on the big league mound. I think the FO expected at least 2 of those guys to be ready for the bigs by now and instead they got 0.

All of their bigtime position player assets are already key parts of the current team (or named Royce Lewis) so you can't trade them (although, I'd move Larnach for the right arm in return) because you'd just create a different hole in the roster and not improve the team overall. Tough spot to be in here.

[bean5302]

I don't think the problem is trade assets. I think the problem here is the attachment to the prospects who are performing. Essentially, the fans here don't want to give anything up.

Larnach, Kirilloff, Kepler, Polanco, Arraez, Miranda, Ober... they're all established or semi-established and team controlled for a few years. The non-established guys like Lewis, Steer, Wallner, and Winder all have value. Some high upside, but further away prospects Miller, Encarnation-Strand, Hajjar, Povich.

There's plenty of value, but the Twins have exactly 0 elite prospects who aren't injured at this point so trade packages are going to be tough to hammer out without parting with coveted pieces.

[mikelink45]

For some reason speculation about trades just doesn't interest me. Is such a random thing because you have both teams trying to figure the value and oftentimes it doesn't I'm out too much have a jolt for the team.

Sometimes it's a small move like getting Shannon Stewart who caught fire for us and was never considered to be a star before that run. But realistically whoever we get has 2 months to contribute. With the foundation being laid at the major league level now, any move needs to take into consideration the future. I'm sorry to say we just are not strong enough to think that we should be all in for the world series. 

[TwinsAce]

24 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

I don't think the problem is trade assets. I think the problem here is the attachment to the prospects who are performing. Essentially, the fans here don't want to give anything up.

Larnach, Kirilloff, Kepler, Polanco, Arraez, Miranda, Ober... they're all established or semi-established and team controlled for a few years. The non-established guys like Lewis, Steer, Wallner, and Winder all have value. Some high upside, but further away prospects Miller, Encarnation-Strand, Hajjar, Povich.

There's plenty of value, but the Twins have exactly 0 elite prospects who aren't injured at this point so trade packages are going to be tough to hammer out without parting with coveted pieces.

Agreed - there are also other prospects not mentioned.  Emmanuel Rodriguez is also injured, but could be a centerpiece.  Raya and Povich seem like decent pieces as well, if not Varland and Miller too.

[jmlease1]

The underwhelming performance by some of the Twins prospects (especially pitching) certain does harm their trade capital, but especially for guys that are still in lower levels, I'm not sure how much an injury necessarily hurts the status of some of these prospects?

I'm not sure I see the twins getting starting pitching help. More likely to see 1-2 relief arms, IMHO...which I'm not opposed to. Despite some recent struggles from the rotation, I still don't think we're too badly off there, but finding some reliable relief help is a more pressing need. It's also more in budget, in terms of what we're willing/able to give up.

Twins have a good amount of depth in the system to move a couple of lesser prospects for expiring relief help (possibly paired by a 40-man pending reject and some salary relief?).

[LA VIkes Fan]

1 hour ago, bean5302 said:

I don't think the problem is trade assets. I think the problem here is the attachment to the prospects who are performing. Essentially, the fans here don't want to give anything up.

Larnach, Kirilloff, Kepler, Polanco, Arraez, Miranda, Ober... they're all established or semi-established and team controlled for a few years. The non-established guys like Lewis, Steer, Wallner, and Winder all have value. Some high upside, but further away prospects Miller, Encarnation-Strand, Hajjar, Povich.

There's plenty of value, but the Twins have exactly 0 elite prospects who aren't injured at this point so trade packages are going to be tough to hammer out without parting with coveted pieces.

Agreed. We can get a top end starter like Montas or Castillo - we just need to be willing to trade a Larnch or Miranda type PLUS (1) Ober or (2) a Steer, Wallner, and a lower level but with high upside guy like CES, Julien, Sabato, Varland, etc. As for me, I would like to keep Miranda but wouldn't be opposed to moving him for a great return (Montas plus a solid reliever).

I am very open to dealing Larnach as a headline piece in a trade for starting pitching. Kirilloff is our LF for the foreseeable future because Arraez is the 1B, followed by Miranda. We all need to accept that reality. So unless we are going to trade Kepler - who won't get us much of a return - there simply is no room at the inn for Larnach to play every day. Same for Steer and Wallner. They play positions - corner OF, 2B and 3B - where we have players in place who are younger, cost controlled, and aren't going anywhere. You trade from surplus for need. Our need? Pitching, pitching and more pitching. Our surplus? Corner OF bats and guys who have good to high ceilings and can play 2B or 3B. That's who you trade. 

Also, let's not forget why you develop quality depth in the minors. The first and most obvious reason is to feed the MLB club, but it is not the only reason. The other reason is so you have players to trade for established MLB players on other teams in those years were you believe you have a chance to complete. I think this is one of those years and am open to using our prospect capital to improve the big club, particularly with respect to players who have more than just the rest of 2022 to offer. We all need to be willing to "let go" of some of the prospects we know and love so that we can trade them for established players who can help us right now. I personally think any Twins prospect recently graduating to MLB or still in the minors should be available except for Ryan, Kirilloff, Duran and WInder, except that I would only move Miranda for an established MLB starter with at least 1.5 years of control and a chance of re-signing with the team. Other than that, everyone else should be available, That's the attitude I think the FO should have going into this trade deadline.  

[TwinsDr2021]

2 hours ago, Twins reserve said:

Miami has the pitchers and needs controllable hitters I particularly like Eury Perez and Max Meyer. Would the Twins part with Larnach, Steer and Polanco for these pitchers?   

IMO that trade package wouldn't be enough for even one of the pitchers.

[Rosterman]

The Twins would be in the hunt if once top prospects Balazovic and Sands were pitching better. Both would spell quality return in the past in a trade. Now you have to think about the strength of their future with the Twins. Cano would be a good throw-in. But it is too soon to gamble on the top arms at AA ball, sadly - Canterino, Varland, even Enlow.

Celestino could have some worth. People throwout Steer, which is a nice name...but redundant of what most teams have in their organization. If the Twins wanted to part with Miranda right now, they could and not suffer much.

Sano, again, is the elephant in the room. No trade value as of today. A contract that needs to play if the Twins want to see value. And then you still are faced with signing him or letting him walk. Are the Twins ready to move on from the Big Man.

Of course, the Twins could trade Bundy or Duffey or Thielbar or before last week Joe Smith. But be lucky to get a low level prospect in return. The joy would be if they were actually replaced by better pitchers traded for from other organizations.

Padres need an outfielder. jake Cave anyone?

[Shs_2]

#1. Lewis

Lee

Martin

Rodriguez

Swr

Wallner

Canterino

Steer

Prielipp

#10. Povich , Miller , Raya , Festa , Julien , C Encarnacion-Strand , Varland , Sands , 

Balazovic , Haijjar , #20. De Andrade 

H.m. : SGL , Headrick , Mercedes , Morris , Sisk , Acuna , Adams , Winkel , Schobel 

 

 

[ashbury]

12 hours ago, bighat said:

Twins might also have to toss in Brooks Lee for anything major to happen here.

 

6 minutes ago, Shs_2 said:

Lee

Prielipp

Seems like a reminder is needed that 2022 draftees won't be eligible to be traded until after the season.

[old nurse]

There are plenty of people who need to look at trade history. Back pf bullpen rental help only requires a couple of bodies that bolster a farm system. A rental closer requires more. Control beyond at his year costs more. The Twins and every other team gave the assets to buy rental back of bullpen help. Starting  pitching help might be more difficult . They have prospects doing well enough to be trade bait for a starter but they don’t have a pedigree of draft position or beauty contest rankings. 

[bighat]

3 hours ago, old nurse said:

There are plenty of people who need to look at trade history. Back pf bullpen rental help only requires a couple of bodies that bolster a farm system. A rental closer requires more. Control beyond at his year costs more. The Twins and every other team gave the assets to buy rental back of bullpen help. Starting  pitching help might be more difficult . They have prospects doing well enough to be trade bait for a starter but they don’t have a pedigree of draft position or beauty contest rankings. 

Good point. The Twins traded Francisco Abad to the Red Sox for Pat Light in 2016, and then last year they traded Robles to the Sox for a AA righty named Alex Scherff, who I've never heard of before or since. They traded Francisco Rodney to the A's for Dakota Chalmers, who seemed like a nice grab but has stalled and really never gotten past AAA. He's now 25 years old and has an 8+ ERA this year in the Dodgers organization.

[Whitey333]

I would say the Twins have at least two white elephants in the room.  Yes.  Sano is one.  I suggest the other is Carlos Correa.  He very likely isn't coming back.  If you can find a trade partner to take on his huge salary perhaps he could be used to either obtain major league pitching help or get prospects to replenish the system should you trade prospects for pitching.  By all indications he's going to leave anyway.  Plus IMO Twins surely have not gotten a 35 million dollar performance.  Far from it.

[Squirrel]

19 minutes ago, Whitey333 said:

I would say the Twins have at least two white elephants in the room.  Yes.  Sano is one.  I suggest the other is Carlos Correa.  He very likely isn't coming back.  If you can find a trade partner to take on his huge salary perhaps he could be used to either obtain major league pitching help or get prospects to replenish the system should you trade prospects for pitching.  By all indications he's going to leave anyway.  Plus IMO Twins surely have not gotten a 35 million dollar performance.  Far from it.

Oy, I tire of the 'trade Correa' talk. Trading Correa makes this team worse, not better. Who plays SS if we trade him, and we're contending? You don't trade away a significant part of your team when you are contending. You aren't getting significant help for him, either, and certainly not major league ready help. First, identify which contending teams need/want a SS. Those are the only teams that would possibly trade with us. They aren't returning any major league pitching to us because they need that themselves. And we aren't going to get a lot in prospects, and I don't want to trade for prospects. This is about making trades to help us now. Correa is not on the list of 'Who do we have to trade?' All you've suggested is getting rid of two players you don't like, which gets us nothing, and puts us in a worse position when we are trying to win.

[Thebigalguy]

Nobody's trading Correa. The MLB draft just took place. The Twins could bundle their top two or three draft picks for a top shelf starter from a team in the doldrums with no playoff hopes this year. Fact is, I have little faith in FO, given how recent trades have turned out. Instead of Rogers, we have a guy with Tommy John and Pagan, a true disaster at present. With Duran and Rogers as set up and closer, we have a dozen more victories than we do right now. It's frustrating. 

[jmlease1]

2 hours ago, Whitey333 said:

I would say the Twins have at least two white elephants in the room.  Yes.  Sano is one.  I suggest the other is Carlos Correa.  He very likely isn't coming back.  If you can find a trade partner to take on his huge salary perhaps he could be used to either obtain major league pitching help or get prospects to replenish the system should you trade prospects for pitching.  By all indications he's going to leave anyway.  Plus IMO Twins surely have not gotten a 35 million dollar performance.  Far from it.

Trading Correa would be giving up on the season, which would be a very ugly look for a team in first place, even if the divisional lead has shrunk. Particularly with Lewis out for the year.

We'll see where Correa ends up by the end of the season, but right now he's at 2.3 bWAR through 70 games. That's behind his previous pace, but still all-star caliber. I usually see WAR being valued at $7-8M per WAR; at that price & this pace, Correa could easily finish the season having been worth $35M. He's been terrific at the plate, as good as last season (same 131 OPS+). Defensive metrics say he hasn't been as good in the field, eye test says he's awesome out there (IMHO), reality is probably somewhere in the middle. I've loved having him on this team. We'll see what happens after the season after the season, but if the Twins want to make the playoffs, you need to keep Correa. And I think that any time you can make the playoffs in baseball you should try to make the playoffs. Because anything can happen in a series.

[old nurse]

2 hours ago, Thebigalguy said:

Nobody's trading Correa. The MLB draft just took place. The Twins could bundle their top two or three draft picks for a top shelf starter from a team in the doldrums with no playoff hopes this year. Fact is, I have little faith in FO, given how recent trades have turned out. Instead of Rogers, we have a guy with Tommy John and Pagan, a true disaster at present. With Duran and Rogers as set up and closer, we have a dozen more victories than we do right now. It's frustrating. 

Pagan and Rogers each have 5 blown saves. Rogers has appeared in 5 more games. There really would be no difference between the two in outcomes of games, They have each had their share of meltdowns

[ashbury]

7 hours ago, Thebigalguy said:

The MLB draft just took place. The Twins could bundle their top two or three draft picks for ...

Just a reminder, drafted players are not eligible for trades until after this season ends.  These guys are not a factor for the upcoming trade deadline.