Twins Select Tanner Schobel at #68 in the 2022 MLB Draft

[Jamie Cameron]

The Minnesota Twins selected Tanner Schobel at number 68 overall in the 2022 MLB Draft. Schobel is a shortstop out of Virginia Tech University.

 

Tanner Schobel is a 5'10, 170-pound shortstop out of Virginia Tech. Although he didn't make the consensus top 56 players, Schobel checked in at 73rd overall on our consensus big board and is drafted around the range one would expect based on his evaluations. 

Schobel is young as a draft-eligible sophomore (he recently turned 21). In his freshman season at Virginia Tech who moved around the infield frequently, spending time at shortstop and second base. In his first season with the Hokies, he had a middling offensive output, putting up .279/.359/.441 with 7 home runs and 10 doubles.

In between his freshman and sophomore seasons at Virginia Tech, Schobel played in the Cape Cod league, managing a .378 OBP and 3 home runs in 29 games.

He showed additional pop in the 2022 season, hitting .362/.445/.689 with 19 home runs and 74 RBIs in 59 games and lifting more batted balls in the air, particularly to the pull side. Schobel is a solid player defensively and has versatility around the infield. He profiles as a good utility player who can move around the infield and do everything solidly. While his pull side power may not hold up professionally in a wooden bat environment, Schobel will still have solid line drive power, particularly to the pull side.

Schobel's long term upside with the Twins will hinge on whether his newly developed pull side power can be maintained at the pro level (the Twins have been developing bats well in recent years). If it can, he has a chance to stick as a regular instead of a utility man. Either way, he will be a useful prospect for the Twins. The slot value for the #68 pick in $1 million. Schobel was recommended by Twins scout John Wilson

What do you think of the Twins selecting Tanner Schobel at #68 overall? Which of the Twins picks from day one of the draft are you most excited for? Share your thoughts in the comments.

 

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[ashbury]

I think I would have preferred a lightly regarded pitcher, if the aim was to save $1M in slot money with this pick.  I don't understand taking another SS; the one scouting report I saw on him questions his ability to even stick there.

[twinstalker]

It would have been fun to figure out the money for Brock Porter, but that was a pipe dream.  The Twins are obviously trying to find a second Speer with this pick.  He doesn't appear to naturally project as an MLB regular.  I would have preferred a pitcher, but I don't really have much of an opinion when it gets to this point in the MLB draft.  If he has a good hit tool, that's mostly what I care about in hitters.

[High heat]

Here is a perfect pick! A guy you liked that was drafted a round or more ahead of projection but will likely be able to sign under slot $.  You can use that $ to sign the #48 pick who, coming off of injury could easily go back to college and is likely why he was still available at 48 due to signability and injury.

 

[Dman]

7 hours ago, ashbury said:

I think I would have preferred a lightly regarded pitcher, if the aim was to save $1M in slot money with this pick.  I don't understand taking another SS; the one scouting report I saw on him questions his ability to even stick there.

I second your opinion here.  He seems like a solid player and they are betting the power will be there as he likely fits their model well.  However how many more second, third possibly shortstop guys do we have in the system right now?  The system is full of these types of players.  We just picked one at number 8. If he had blazing speed or could for sure stick at short I could maybe see my way past this pick but he does not.  So yeah it is a solid pick and all but it seems like they could have and or maybe should have gone with maybe more risk and tried a hard throwing solid two pitch possible elite relief pitcher in that spot or even another starter with potential.  At least some position the system is weak in.

I get they will probably go under slot in that spot and felt this was the best option but on the surface he didn't look like the best available to me and he doesn't even meet a system need so sorry but this one is a head scratcher for me.  Granted we are getting to the point in the draft where the minimal scouting reports out there on guys start to deviate heavily from consensus boards and there are much more varied opinions about a players potential so who knows.  The Twins and other MLB teams have a lot more info on all these guys so you have to defer to them.  Just sayin IMO they could have done more to help balance the system as they have found this pick at number 11 before and his name is Michael Helman. Not impressed by that pick unless they used to save more money even then take a flyer on a pitcher IMO.

[TopGunn#22]

You can never have too many SS's and guys that play SS can always move around the diamond to other positions due to their glove and arm.  After the first 2 picks which I think are HR's this pick works for me if they can sign Prielipp quickly and start developing a potential future Ace.

[roger]

Know nothing about this kid, but I for one am waiting for them to draft a catcher.  Heck, more than one and higher than the last half of the draft.  Catcher is the organization's biggest need and they need to address it during the early part of this draft.

[DocBauer]

I don't have a problem with the pick by itself. He's still developing, and while it's possible his new found power can't be sustained to this level, he's clearly got some and the ability to keep at least a portion of it. (Been happening a lot in the system). And looks like a decent hit tool.

Really can't have enough guys "up the middle" guys in your system. And a couple of the SS the Twins have drafted the past 3 years have over to different spots.

Still, if the object was a flier to save money, I agree, why not just grab an arm you ar least kinda like in this spot?

The answer appears, IMO, to be that the Twins like him to stick at SS and see a good developmental path for him. Therefore, he's worth more as a lower slot signing than any flier arm at the same spot. I hope they are right.

[nicksaviking]

I don't know anything about this kid, and I usually don't like the small ones, but based on that video, that swing sure looks like it contains power potential.

Maybe he can't play SS, but I don't put much stock in what the national pundits say because according to them, a guy won't stick at SS unless he's elite. This despite the fact that by definition, half of the league is below average. Seems to me the only concerns that tend to hold up are the ones about the arm-strength. The concerns about the speed, range and size don't usually amount to much. But maybe he does have a weak arm.

[Jamie Cameron]

4 hours ago, Dman said:

I second your opinion here.  He seems like a solid player and they are betting the power will be there as he likely fits their model well.  However how many more second, third possibly shortstop guys do we have in the system right now?  The system is full of these types of players.  We just picked one at number 8. If he had blazing speed or could for sure stick at short I could maybe see my way past this pick but he does not.  So yeah it is a solid pick and all but it seems like they could have and or maybe should have gone with maybe more risk and tried a hard throwing solid two pitch possible elite relief pitcher in that spot or even another starter with potential.  At least some position the system is weak in.

I get they will probably go under slot in that spot and felt this was the best option but on the surface he didn't look like the best available to me and he doesn't even meet a system need so sorry but this one is a head scratcher for me.  Granted we are getting to the point in the draft where the minimal scouting reports out there on guys start to deviate heavily from consensus boards and there are much more varied opinions about a players potential so who knows.  The Twins and other MLB teams have a lot more info on all these guys so you have to defer to them.  Just sayin IMO they could have done more to help balance the system as they have found this pick at number 11 before and his name is Michael Helman. Not impressed by that pick unless they used to save more money even then take a flyer on a pitcher IMO.

I think a fairly safe conclusion to draw from this pick, is the Twins are going to deal from the dearth of infield prospects they have at the trade deadline. I like Steer as a comp. I also like pre-power up Brian Dozier.

[Dman]

1 minute ago, Jamie Cameron said:

I think a fairly safe conclusion to draw from this pick, is the Twins are going to deal from the dearth of infield prospects they have at the trade deadline. I like Steer as a comp. I also like pre-power up Brian Dozier.

Yeah I don't disagree that they can deal from their depth there but this guy reminds me a little too much of Soularie.  The slight frame generally doesn't seem to play as well at the MLB level.  It sounds like he has good contact skills so hopefully things turn out well.  I like the player it is just I felt there might have been more "value" in another position.  If he hits anything like Strand not necessarily that level of power but just hits well that first full year I am sure I will be more onboard.  Still a lot of draft to go so plenty of time to fill holes I guess I just didn't have the time they did to fall in love with Schobel.  I am sure that will change once I get a chance to watch him play.

[Doctor Gast]

I like our #1 & #2 pick, but since we didn't pick a catcher in those slots. Were there any catchers available at #68 slot? I'd prefer a catcher there. How about Brady Neal, he looks pretty good to me.

[twinstalker]

7 hours ago, roger said:

Know nothing about this kid, but I for one am waiting for them to draft a catcher.  Heck, more than one and higher than the last half of the draft.  Catcher is the organization's biggest need and they need to address it during the early part of this draft.

I think once you get past the second round, you're more likely to get a good catcher by 1) trading for one, 2) converting a 2B, or 3) internationally.  I think getting a good MLB catcher like Garver in rounds 3-10 is incredibly rare.  I'd want most of those picks to be pitchers, especially if my org really knows what it's looking for in pitching, which ours does.

Remember, the Twins were able to get Jeffers in the 2nd round mostly because he was a horrible catcher in college (by MLB standards).  Luckily, they may have understood his situation better than other teams.

[ashbury]

1 hour ago, twinstalker said:

I think once you get past the second round, you're more likely to get a good catcher by 1) trading for one, 2) converting a 2B, or 3) internationally. 

The devil's in the details, but conceptually the thought is sound.  The top 10 catchers in 2021 measured by WAR include 7 players who were age 30 and over.  One more was 29.  By that age, how they were originally signed/drafted fades into obscurity versus the decisions that cause them to be acquired or retained.  The very top two, Perez and Contreras, were indeed international signings, whom their respective teams saw fit to pay even after arbitration.

Only Sean Murphy (3rd round 2016) and Will Smith (1st round 2016) were young guys in 2021 playing with the teams who drafted them. 

Using that 2016 draft as a measure, it wasn't for lack of trying.  White Sox and Angels also tried in that first round before the Dodgers took Smith, and then 6 other teams (including our Twins with Rortvedt) rolled the dice on a catcher before Murphy was picked.  All those catchers could still contribute in some way going forward, but the idea of latching onto a top catcher with a high draft pick is elusive at best.

I mean, all draft picks are elusive, but it seems to me that the track record tells us that solving your catching problems through the draft is elusiver.

[SteelDodo]

On 7/18/2022 at 8:44 AM, Dman said:

However how many more second, third possibly shortstop guys do we have in the system right now? 

According to Fangraphs, "Tanner Schobel is one of the best shortstop defenders in the draft" (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2022-mlb-draft-day-one-recap/).

I'm not sure if this is true or not, but if so, then I REALLY like this pick. Right now in our system, Lewis and Miller seem to be the only two players that have a reasonable likelihood of sticking at SS and having a long career in the majors. Even then, there are doubts about both of them sticking as SS. 

If Schobel even has an average bat (which it appears he does), he seems like a good value as a pick at the end of the second round.

[Dman]

3 hours ago, SteelDodo said:

According to Fangraphs, "Tanner Schobel is one of the best shortstop defenders in the draft" (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2022-mlb-draft-day-one-recap/).

I'm not sure if this is true or not, but if so, then I REALLY like this pick. Right now in our system, Lewis and Miller seem to be the only two players that have a reasonable likelihood of sticking at SS and having a long career in the majors. Even then, there are doubts about both of them sticking as SS. 

If Schobel even has an average bat (which it appears he does), he seems like a good value as a pick at the end of the second round.

His ratings are a bit all over the place.  I generally end up agreeing with Fangraphs more often than not but MLB.com had him at 96 and rated average as a defender and I have seen him described as pretty much average in all phases by several outlets so not sure what to think.  

He was on the same team as Cross and put up better numbers so one would think his hit tool would be rated higher but I think most scouting services feel he has reached his peak and there isn't much more to develop thus the average ratings and concerns about power.

Despite his average tools it seems a number of people felt he was quite under rated and should\could have been a late first round pick.  If you believe that then one could say the Twins came away with 3 first round picks. Law had the following to say about him.  Chance to stay at shortstop isn't exactly a ringing endorsement as an "elite defender" at MLB level.  I think he is a good player and if he does end up actually playing short I will be thrilled with the pick but if just another utility guy I think they could have done more to help the team in that spot.

"Tanner Schobel (2A) was one of my gut-feel guys, not a huge upside play but an advanced hitter with a compact swing and good eye at the plate. He led Tech with 19 homers this year, although I think he’s probably more of a high-doubles guy with the wood bat, and he has a chance to stay at shortstop. It’s a quiet mix of skills that, together, could add up to an everyday player or even a bit more."