Who's It Going to Be?

[Jeremy Nygaard]

We're 48 hours away. Players are done playing (though maybe not done working out) and teams will be solidifying their draft boards for the final time. The biggest question remains, "When the Twins are on the clock at #8, who's it going to be?"

The Orioles aren't doing anyone any favors. They reportedly narrowed down their list to five guys, though no one is certain who those five guys are. But the teams behind them, the Diamondbacks and Rangers, appear to have clear preferences.

Sorry, Druw Jones and Jackson Holliday are not going to be Twins. For all intents and purposes, they will be off the board with two of the first three choices. If they aren't, it's only because they've negotiated their way into another team's plans... and there's no reason to believe it would be the Twins.

That leaves these names:

Termarr Johnson is a future second baseman who is going to be a great hitter. I think it's easy to make a Luis-Arraez-with-power comparison and truly believe Johnson is 1a on the Twins "realistic" draft board. Johnson is believed to be in play at #1, with the realest threats being 4, 6 and 7. 

Cam Collier, my 1b to Johnson's 1a, is a different prospect in that he left high school early to be draft-eligible now instead of next year. His ceiling is unbelievable, but his floor is lower despite playing up a level as a high school junior. The teams most likely to poach Collier are the Pirates (4) or the Cubs (7).

The ideal situation - at least as I see it - is that somehow Johnson and Collier both slip out of the Top 6. The Cubs would take one; the Twins will happily (and quickly) take the other. 

Is that possible? Sure, it's just not probable.

Kevin Parada and Brooks Lee likely lead the next tier. I wouldn't put one above the other as I'd say it's almost impossible they are both on the board at #8. If Johnson and Collier are gone and either of these two are available, it should be relatively easy to pull the trigger on Parada or Lee. 

But after this point, all proverbial hell breaks loose.

I know you're thinking, "wait, that's six guys. I thought it was about a Top 7?" The guy I haven't mentioned is Elijah Green, who, in my opinion is the first, biggest key to this draft. If he goes off the board before the Twins pick, now you've got your seven. But if he doesn't, I'm not sure it's a slam-dunk that the Twins take him. In fact, in reading the tea leaves, I think it's a coin flip at best.

Then it's wide open. I think the Twins would be irresponsible to not consider Cade Horton or Connor Prielipp. And, if done creatively and with conviction they can get a preferred player at #48, would love to see Prielipp popped here. It's not often you can get arguably the best pitcher in the draft at a discount late in the Top 10. Those highest on Prielipp believe that. The upside is enormous. The floor is lower than it should be on a college pitcher, but given that he's a lefty with a plus fastball/slider combo already... it's certainly not as low as you'd think.

The more likely scenario in a draft that is pitching-weak, would be to take a bat. And that's where Gavin Cross and Jacob Berry enter the conversation. Drafting either player wouldn't be overly exciting; drafting either player would be great for a system who has seen most of their top hitting prospects reach the major leagues.

There is a group of others the Twins have been tied to at #8, but those would be drafted with the strong belief they're signing a below-slot deal, guys such as Jett Williams or Drew Gilbert. While they'd rank a little lower than the aforementioned names, you'd have to believe that the savings would help make the organization deeper, whether by getting one over-slot guy on the first day or spreading it around to multiple guys.

So who is it going to be? The jury will be out for a couple more days, but hopefully this helps you make sense of all that is going on. 

View full article

[Mike Sixel]

No idea, but the coverage here has been excellent. Thanks. Me? I want the high risk, high ceiling, guys. Go for it. 

[Jeremy Nygaard]

14 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

No idea, but the coverage here has been excellent. Thanks. Me? I want the high risk, high ceiling, guys. Go for it. 

Then I'd suggest if Collier/Johnson are gone, you'd hope they go off the board to take Jett Williams/Justin Crawford and push a prep pitcher/overpay to 48.

[DocBauer]

Shoot, I just posted in the 1-26 list everything I would want to say here, LOL. Wish I had waited 5 minutes for a screen re-fresh, LOL.

But without just doing a copy and paste, I think there's a good chance SOMEONE plays the under/over slot angle and one of the top 7 slides. EVERYONE is an unknown prospect, to be sure, but there's a couple, despite potential, that have enough questions about "hit" ability and lack of defensive ability that I'm not overly interested in, and not sure the Twins will be either.

Have stated before, and again now, our FO is not adverse to taking chances on players, but are generally risk adverse. Still, with so many arms that are high potential but coming off injuries and/or have SSS, is this the year where they just roll the dice and take a shot on an arm that normally just wouldn't have been available at #8? I wouldn't be shocked at all. The risk/reward factor may be too great not to take that shot.

I don't want Berry. We have enough young talent at the ML level and throught the system I just don't want to see a DH/1B only addition. Berry or risky arm with huge upside? I'm going with the arm all day long.

If the right top 7 player falls to us, race the selection card up front. Otherwise, in regard to position players, I like Jett Williams, but favor Neto or Cross. Again, Neto seemingly checks all 5 boxes as good to very good. And he's a legit SS, from reports. He's both good and safe. Might even save a couple $. And I'd be super OK with Cross as a better hitting Kepler or faster Larnach. 

Kepler isn't going anywhere soon, barring trade, and might re-up. Larnach should be a staple when healthy again. AK can/will play some OF but become the primary 1B. Wallner just might be real, and can play some corner OF with a big arm. But stuff happens and trades happen. Plenty of room to add Cross.

IF a position player is indeed #1, I'm crossing my fingers Dalton Rushing, the LH hitting catcher from Louisville will be snapped up by the Twins in round 2. Perfect compliment to Jeffers in a couple of years.

After that, pitching and pitching and more pitching 3-10 unless a position player drops in your lap that you really like.

[DocBauer]

4 minutes ago, Jeremy Nygaard said:

Then I'd suggest if Collier/Johnson are gone, you'd hope they go off the board to take Jett Williams/Justin Crawford and push a prep pitcher/overpay to 48.

Not my preference, as stated, but a really nice play if the Twins pull it off!

There ARE some good arms at both levels this year, but with tons of questions. Going to be interesting to see if teams roll with position players, in a sort of collective mindset, and let arms slide down.

[RJA]

Nice article. You raise an interesting issue. Would it pay to be contrarians in the draft and take the best pitcher in the draft?  It is kind of like the Wolves going big when everyone else in the NBA is going small.  If they did that and cut a deal to save money, they may be able to net two top notch prospects. I would only want them to do it if they were convinced that the pitcher chosen was a top 10-12 type player AND none of the top 6 or 7 fall to them.   When you think about the number of top flight pitchers who had TJ, they really could have the pick of the litter. I can’t wait for Sunday. I confess, though, that like some others on the site I really like Neto. I look forward to your draft day coverage, Jeremy. 

[dxpavelka]

kumar rocker

[DocBauer]

21 minutes ago, RJA said:

Nice article. You raise an interesting issue. Would it pay to be contrarians in the draft and take the best pitcher in the draft?  It is kind of like the Wolves going big when everyone else in the NBA is going small.  If they did that and cut a deal to save money, they may be able to net two top notch prospects. I would only want them to do it if they were convinced that the pitcher chosen was a top 10-12 type player AND none of the top 6 or 7 fall to them.   When you think about the number of top flight pitchers who had TJ, they really could have the pick of the litter. I can’t wait for Sunday. I confess, though, that like some others on the site I really like Neto. I look forward to your draft day coverage, Jeremy. 

Let's face it, unless someone surprises in the 1st 7 picks, the Twins are likely to have to have their choice of ALL the available arms, save MAYBE one. The one kid I question is from Oklahoma, sorry, but I'm forgetting his name at the moment. I'm sure he's looking for big $, but I don't blame him for that, and do any of us even know what he's asking/thinking for? He's a born and raised Oklahoma kid playing for his hometown, favorite team. If he wants to keep being a Sooner and have a blast and bet on himself as a potential top 5 pick in 2023, I can understand his thinking. So maybe he's in, and maybe he's out. Despite talent and a tremendous close to his 2022 year, he's still a SSS. 

But so are half of the top pitching prospects!

The Twins jumped on Petty last year as a HS arm, but he was picked in the 20's. Are the Twins just convinced Porter and Lesko are that much better, talent and projection, that they would pull the trigger at #8??? Maybe. Just not sure they would do that. But could they pass on Prielipp? He's college with a FB and slider with command and a potential change. He checks the boxes if healthy and if he's looked good in his workouts. The fact he's already had TJ isn't really a negative. He's the arm I'm watching for the Twins, and other teams ahead of them. 

[tony&rodney]

Lesko or Porter, please.

Wait, if Brooks Lee falls, take him.

[bunsen82]

The twins MO has been to go for bats that have a high probability of playing in the big leagues.  Essentially a high floor. Of the bats in here at usually a high drafted position that would be Parada. Neto is a possibility at a high discount.  Otherwise it seems like if they want any of the pitchers they can also get a good discount. They also seem to be high on Johnson but I assume he will already be picked.  We should know here quickly.  

[Jeremy Nygaard]

13 minutes ago, bunsen82 said:

The twins MO has been to go for bats that have a high probability of playing in the big leagues. 

That's been true when drafting outside of the Top 10. 

But definitely not true with this regime while drafting in the Top 10. They've definitely taken shots on upside (Lewis and Cavaco) with their high picks.

[Dman]

It is going to be best player available of coarse. lol.  It will be interesting to see who is there when they pick and then even more interesting who they pick.  Odds are it is Cross but will have to wait and see who ends up available there.  The Cubs have been mocked taking Neto and he makes sense for them as they seem to prefer college bats and it is hard to find up the middle prospects.  Something tells me we miss out on Neto and Green falls, but we will see.

I still like Jett and making a deal there could go a long way to grabbing one of the better pitchers in the second round.  So many things they can do or that can happen at 8.  Sunday will be fun but my money is on Cross as he is seems the kind of player the Twins pick most every year.

[mrtwinsfan]

Hope Prada is still there, kids a  Stud

[bean5302]

Kumar Rocker is interesting, but you have to hand it to the Mets on that one. They got absolutely trashed for not signing Rocker. Good 'ol Scott Boras insisted everything was fine and then...

 

On Saturday night, teams received medical records pertaining to right-hander Kumar Rocker and learned that he had shoulder surgery last September. The Mets selected the former Vanderbilt star 10th overall last July and agreed to a $6 million bonus deal that fell apart when they balked at his post-Draft physical. After New York offered him a $0 bonus -- a formality so it could get the No. 11 pick this year as compensation for failing to sign him -- he opted not to return to college.

Hard to return to college when you don't know if you'll be ready to pitch by then...

[Major League Ready]

23 hours ago, DocBauer said:

Shoot, I just posted in the 1-26 list everything I would want to say here, LOL. Wish I had waited 5 minutes for a screen re-fresh, LOL.

But without just doing a copy and paste, I think there's a good chance SOMEONE plays the under/over slot angle and one of the top 7 slides. EVERYONE is an unknown prospect, to be sure, but there's a couple, despite potential, that have enough questions about "hit" ability and lack of defensive ability that I'm not overly interested in, and not sure the Twins will be either.

Have stated before, and again now, our FO is not adverse to taking chances on players, but are generally risk adverse. Still, with so many arms that are high potential but coming off injuries and/or have SSS, is this the year where they just roll the dice and take a shot on an arm that normally just wouldn't have been available at #8? I wouldn't be shocked at all. The risk/reward factor may be too great not to take that shot.

I don't want Berry. We have enough young talent at the ML level and throught the system I just don't want to see a DH/1B only addition. Berry or risky arm with huge upside? I'm going with the arm all day long.

If the right top 7 player falls to us, race the selection card up front. Otherwise, in regard to position players, I like Jett Williams, but favor Neto or Cross. Again, Neto seemingly checks all 5 boxes as good to very good. And he's a legit SS, from reports. He's both good and safe. Might even save a couple $. And I'd be super OK with Cross as a better hitting Kepler or faster Larnach. 

Kepler isn't going anywhere soon, barring trade, and might re-up. Larnach should be a staple when healthy again. AK can/will play some OF but become the primary 1B. Wallner just might be real, and can play some corner OF with a big arm. But stuff happens and trades happen. Plenty of room to add Cross.

IF a position player is indeed #1, I'm crossing my fingers Dalton Rushing, the LH hitting catcher from Louisville will be snapped up by the Twins in round 2. Perfect compliment to Jeffers in a couple of years.

After that, pitching and pitching and more pitching 3-10 unless a position player drops in your lap that you really like.

Rushing would be a great get at 48 but I doubt he is still available.

[Twins33]

There are 3-4 players I like. I don’t have an extremely strong preference which is odd because I usually do. Hoping someone falls to the Twins. Guess I’ll have to see who that might be when things get going. 
 

Absolutely don’t want Berry or Cross, but especially Berry. 

[ashbury]

22 minutes ago, Twins33 said:

Absolutely don’t want Berry or Cross, but especially Berry. 

Concur on those two.  I don't see Cross sticking in CF unless the cupboard becomes completely bare for that position, and with that assumption I'm not keen on a high draft pick for another eventual corner OF.