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Game Thread: Twins vs Chicago White Sox 7/14 6:4O PM

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TwerkTwonkTwins First Round Pick

TwerkTwonkTwins

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The Twins and the White Sox will kick off a four-game series tonight at Target Field. This is a very important series for both teams, but more pressure is on the White Sox, as they are currently 5 games back in the AL. The spectrum of outcomes this series can either have Chicago 1 game out or 9 games back from the Twins.  With all the managerial firings this year, one has to wonder if this series could determine Tony La Russa's fate. 

The Twins have done their part in managing the White Sox this season, with a 5-1 record that could have been 6-0 if the bullpen was firing on all cylinders last Wednesday. The last time Chicago was at Target Field was April 22nd-24th, in which the Twins swept the Sox away. That was an early pivotal point in the season, as the Twins were 8-8 after that sweep, helped by the White Sox handing several runs to the Twins with poor defense. 

THE MATCHUP:

RHP Sonny Gray (4-2, 3.03 ERA, 59.1 IP, 54K, 1.06 WHIP, 1.1 bWAR) vs. Johnny Cueto (3-4, 2.91 ERA, 68 IP, 53K, 1.15 WHIP, 2.0 bWAR)

The stats are fairly similar for both pitches, but Sonny Gray has better stuff than Cueto at this point in his career and his numbers were strongly inflated by his last start in Texas. Gray has not hand a great July to this point, giving up 8 ER in 9.2 IP with only 5Ks. This will be his first start against the White Sox this year, and the element of surprise might help. 

As for Cueto, I'm surprised he's had this level of success. It's a bit ironic, as the Twins were rumored to be in on Cueto during Spring Training, but didn't sign him due to concerns of his availability early in the season: 

If the Twins signed Cueto, would they have made the trade with San Diego for Chris Paddack and Emilio Pagan? It's possible...

I do think Cueto is in line for some regression, but he's still very solid. FanGraphs has his xFIP at 4.08 and Baseball Savant has his xERA at a nearly identical 4.09. That's still a very decent starting pitcher to have in the back half of the rotation. 

Here's how Savant compares Sonny Gray (Right) and Cueto (Left)

image.png.bc35e6ae3f41e7bc438bfc159a926f3c.pngimage.png.ecf06958de624a2bb00ebb3158d93407.png

 

 

The Lineups: 

The Twins are rewarding Miranda with a start against a RHP after his heroic walk-off yesterday. This is clearly Rocco's "A-Game" lineup, as he hopes to pad a divisional lead. 

On the other hand, the White Sox lineup is quite right-handed, which plays into Gray's favor. 

WHITE SOX LINEUP (43-45)
1. SS Tim Anderson (R)
2. 3B Yoan Moncanda (S)
3. CF Luis Robert (R)
4. 1B Jose Abreu (R)
5. RF Gavin Sheets (L)
6. DH Andrew Vaughn (R)
7. LF AJ Pollock (R)
8. 2B Josh Harrison (R)

9. C Seby Zavala (R) 

TWINS LINEUP (49-41)
1. 1B Luis Arraez (L)
2. SS Carlos Correa (R)
3. CF Byron Buxton (R)
4. RF Max Kepler (L)
5. 2B Jorge Polanco (S)
6. LF Alex Kirilloff (L)
7. DH Jose Miranda (R)
8. 3B Gio Urshela (R)
9. C Ryan Jeffers (R)

THE PREDICTION:

I think this will be a good game for the pitching staff, and hopefully there are no late inning dramatics. I'm going to say the Twins win 5-1, due to a nice bounce back start from Sonny Gray, and Buxton will find his swing again after a prolonged slump. 

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TwerkTwonkTwins
TwerkTwonkTwins

The Twins and the White Sox will kick off a four-game series tonight at Target Field. This is a very important series for both teams, but more pressure is on the White Sox, as they are currently 5 gam

USAFChief
USAFChief

Nobody will ever convince me RBI aren't the most important thing you can do as a hitter.

USAFChief
USAFChief

Yeah. That's prolly it.

bighat Cedar Rapids Kernels

bighat

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Gray's been pretty terrible lately.

If the team started a playoff series today, who would be your picks for the first three games? Ryan, Bundy and Winder or something?

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Irishman College Ball

Irishman

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Just now, bighat said:

Gray's been pretty terrible lately.

If the team started a playoff series today, who would be your picks for the first three games? Ryan, Bundy and Winder or something?

Gray is not pitching well....

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Mill1634 Minnesota Twins

Mill1634

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Just now, TwerkTwonkTwins said:

Bad BABIP luck there, but Gray does NOT look great tonight. He had 2 outs with 5 pitches at one point 

yep. Really unlucky, but he's once again not shaving the edge of the zone which is so important with a guy with his below average stuff, and he isn't getting any swings and misses

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