The Twins and the White Sox will kick off a four-game series tonight at Target Field. This is a very important series for both teams, but more pressure is on the White Sox, as they are currently 5 games back in the AL. The spectrum of outcomes this series can either have Chicago 1 game out or 9 games back from the Twins.  With all the managerial firings this year, one has to wonder if this series could determine Tony La Russa's fate. 

The Twins have done their part in managing the White Sox this season, with a 5-1 record that could have been 6-0 if the bullpen was firing on all cylinders last Wednesday. The last time Chicago was at Target Field was April 22nd-24th, in which the Twins swept the Sox away. That was an early pivotal point in the season, as the Twins were 8-8 after that sweep, helped by the White Sox handing several runs to the Twins with poor defense. 

THE MATCHUP:

RHP Sonny Gray (4-2, 3.03 ERA, 59.1 IP, 54K, 1.06 WHIP, 1.1 bWAR) vs. Johnny Cueto (3-4, 2.91 ERA, 68 IP, 53K, 1.15 WHIP, 2.0 bWAR)

The stats are fairly similar for both pitches, but Sonny Gray has better stuff than Cueto at this point in his career and his numbers were strongly inflated by his last start in Texas. Gray has not hand a great July to this point, giving up 8 ER in 9.2 IP with only 5Ks. This will be his first start against the White Sox this year, and the element of surprise might help. 

As for Cueto, I'm surprised he's had this level of success. It's a bit ironic, as the Twins were rumored to be in on Cueto during Spring Training, but didn't sign him due to concerns of his availability early in the season: 

If the Twins signed Cueto, would they have made the trade with San Diego for Chris Paddack and Emilio Pagan? It's possible...

I do think Cueto is in line for some regression, but he's still very solid. FanGraphs has his xFIP at 4.08 and Baseball Savant has his xERA at a nearly identical 4.09. That's still a very decent starting pitcher to have in the back half of the rotation. 

Here's how Savant compares Sonny Gray (Right) and Cueto (Left)

 

 

The Lineups: 

The Twins are rewarding Miranda with a start against a RHP after his heroic walk-off yesterday. This is clearly Rocco's "A-Game" lineup, as he hopes to pad a divisional lead. 

On the other hand, the White Sox lineup is quite right-handed, which plays into Gray's favor. 

WHITE SOX LINEUP (43-45)
1. SS Tim Anderson (R)
2. 3B Yoan Moncanda (S)
3. CF Luis Robert (R)
4. 1B Jose Abreu (R)
5. RF Gavin Sheets (L)
6. DH Andrew Vaughn (R)
7. LF AJ Pollock (R)
8. 2B Josh Harrison (R)

9. C Seby Zavala (R) 

TWINS LINEUP (49-41)
1. 1B Luis Arraez (L)
2. SS Carlos Correa (R)
3. CF Byron Buxton (R)
4. RF Max Kepler (L)
5. 2B Jorge Polanco (S)
6. LF Alex Kirilloff (L)
7. DH Jose Miranda (R)
8. 3B Gio Urshela (R)
9. C Ryan Jeffers (R)

THE PREDICTION:

I think this will be a good game for the pitching staff, and hopefully there are no late inning dramatics. I'm going to say the Twins win 5-1, due to a nice bounce back start from Sonny Gray, and Buxton will find his swing again after a prolonged slump. 

Nice job on the intro, twinkt...twonaerkt...

 

Nice job TTT!

Good job Triple-T!

Get on Cueto early.  Don't let him off the hook this time.  Don't be allergic to early runs boys!

Seems like a huge series to me. 

Get er done!

37 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

Nice job on the intro, twinkt...twonaerkt...

 

Nice job TTT!

Love the nickname haha! 

Did we win yet?

Go Twins!

Really gotta win this game with the pitching advantage. 

 

Twins 7, White Sox 4

Gray not sharp once again. Not great to see

I'd like to see Kep out of the 4 spot, and Polanco...or even Miranda up there. Kep needs to get his *** dropped in the order. 

Gray's been pretty terrible lately.

If the team started a playoff series today, who would be your picks for the first three games? Ryan, Bundy and Winder or something?

Bad BABIP luck there, but Gray does NOT look great tonight. He had 2 outs with 5 pitches at one point 

1 minute ago, CRF said:

I'd like to see Kep out of the 4 spot, and Polanco...or even Miranda up there. Kep needs to get his *** dropped in the order. 

Lineup should be (against RHP)

Arraez DH

Correa SS

Buxton CF

AK 1St

Polo 2nd

Miranda 3rd

Kepler RF

Gordon LF

Whoever catches

 

Just now, bighat said:

Gray's been pretty terrible lately.

If the team started a playoff series today, who would be your picks for the first three games? Ryan, Bundy and Winder or something?

Gray is not pitching well....

Uffda.

Just now, TwerkTwonkTwins said:

Bad BABIP luck there, but Gray does NOT look great tonight. He had 2 outs with 5 pitches at one point 

yep. Really unlucky, but he's once again not shaving the edge of the zone which is so important with a guy with his below average stuff, and he isn't getting any swings and misses

Now Twins need to score runs in 1st inning.   

I think White Sox will not trade Cueto to Twins.

12 minutes ago, sampleSizeOfOne said:

Did we win yet?

still 0-0

More "Bad babip luck" for Buxton. 

Cueto's windup at times has just a little bit of Luis Tiant in it. 

Busted my hump to make a 5 hour drive home from Madison into a 4 and 15 minutes,so I can enjoy the game and it’s 2-0 already??

1 minute ago, Tlaker said:

Busted my hump to make a 5 hour drive home from Madison into a 4 and 15 minutes,so I can enjoy the game and it’s 2-0 already??

If you'd have been home in time for 1st pitch it'd be scoreless. Thanks a lot!

OK Alex....as Morneau is saying, be patient here....

AK with a rollover to 2nd base, we've seen that movie before let's hope that's the last time we see that tonight.

bases left full...the story of the 2022 Minnesota Twins

Sigh...

2 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

If you'd have been home in time for 1st pitch it'd be scoreless. Thanks a lot!

Reverse jinx??

5 minutes ago, Tlaker said:

Busted my hump to make a 5 hour drive home from Madison into a 4 and 15 minutes,so I can enjoy the game and it’s 2-0 already??

Life is cruel. Especially true for Twins fans.