The Five Best Hitting Trade Targets for the Twins

[Ted Schwerzler]

We are officially into trade deadline season and the Minnesota Twins are leading the American League Central Division. It’s probably not a certainty that the club would need to add a bat, but if they want to get creative there’s roster spots to improve upon.

 

Last week I wrote a Trade Manifesto presenting 49 names that could be a potential fit to the Twins rosters. It’s on the mound that most of the focus should be pointed, but there’s little reason to turn away from a competent hitter if a fit is deemed strong and valuable.

• The 5 Best Starting Pitching Trade Targets
• The 5 Best Relief Pitching Trade Targets

Rocco Baldelli’s club is less pressed in the lineup, even though they’ve gone silent at times. Jose Miranda and Alex Kirilloff have solidified first base for the most part, and Jorge Polanco has returned healthy at second base. Minnesota has flexibility at third, and Luis Arraez has been great about filling in wherever. The outfield is also largely set and knowing Trevor Larnach will be back helps.

If the Twins were to acquire a bat, it probably comes as a utility type or behind the plate.

Here are the five best names from the Trade Manifesto that they could acquire:

Brandon Drury - Cincinnati Reds - 29 yrs old 1.9 fWAR 16 HR 124 OPS+
The Reds have plenty to piece out, and while they aren’t as bad as they started, this isn’t an organization that wants to win either. Drury is a stereotypical utility man that can play all over the diamond. He’s played every infield position aside from appearing behind the plate this season, and he was previously an outfielder at times for both the Mets and Blue Jays. This is easily a career year for the veteran, and the Reds will look to extract value out of a guy making just $900k. He did put up a solid 2021 season as well, but both of these sample sizes are relatively small. Drury is posting a career best 11% barrel rate, but his expected stats are below actual production. He’s seen success by lowering whiff and chase rates which is a solid procedural change. A free agent following the season, there shouldn’t be much in the way of acquisition cost here.

Christian Walker - Arizona Diamondbacks - 31 yrs old 1.9 fWAR 21 HR 123 OPS+
You could call Walker a slugger at first base but that would be selling his impact short. Yes, he blasts the ball into the seats and isn’t a high average guy by any means, but he’s also a very good defender. With 12 defensive runs saved and eight outs above average, he brings plenty of value to the lineup. Walker’s expected batting average is also nearly 70 points higher than it currently rests, and his expected slugging percentage checks in at a whopping .598. He’s barrelling baseballs at a ridiculous 15% of the time, and his .183 BABIP suggests even more offense could be had here. Walker is playing on a $2.6 million deal this season and remains under team control for each of the next two seasons. Minnesota making a move at first base would largely be reflective of how they want to use Miranda, Kirilloff, and Gio Urshela.

Ian Happ - Chicago Cubs - 27 yrs old 2.3 fWAR 8 HR 136 OPS+
A former 9th overall pick, Happ’s value isn’t solely rooted in the longball. He’s at home in the outfield and would be able to play a strong centerfield, but he can also play on the dirt. Happ has previously earned MVP votes and he’s posted better than a league-average OPS+ each of his six pro seasons. Happ’s barrel rate is down some, but his expected slugging percentage suggests there’s a bit of room to grow. He’s never previously experienced this muted level of home run production, and coming off of 25 last year, a second half surge may happen for an acquiring club. Happ is making $6.85 million this year and is arbitration eligible again in 2023 before becoming a free agent.

Josh Bell - Washington Nationals - 29 yrs old 2.5 fWAR 12 HR 164 OPS+ 
On a one-year deal with the Nationals, it always seemed like Bell may wind up as trade fodder at the deadline. He hasn’t produced the same home run numbers we’ve seen from him before, but this is a career year by every other measure. Bell’s hard hit rate dropping below 30% for the first time in his career is likely part of the lost power, but his 8.8% whiff rate is lower than anything he’s shown since 2016 with the Pittsburgh Pirates. Traditionally somewhat of a lackluster defensive option, he’s produced positive numbers by both DRS and OAA this season. Bell should be one of the most coveted bats on the market this year, and at $10 million, for the season, his remaining money won’t be substantial.

Willson Contreras - Chicago Cubs - 30 yrs old 22.9 fWAR 13 HR 152 OPS+
The Cubs have some very intriguing options all over the diamond, but there’s no denying the best talent is their catcher, Contreras. Offensively he’s pulverizing the baseball and experiencing a career year. The expected stats suggest this is substantiated, and if anything, may trend even further upwards. The 44.8% hard hit rate is a career high, and not at all a surprise with how well he’s seeing the ball at the plate. A knock is probably the defense, which has not previously been the case. After 8 DRS last season, Contreras is at -6 thus far in 2022. He’s not a good framer either, but is throwing out a league average amount of would be base stealers. Minnesota may benefit from a catching upgrade, but it’d be quite a luxury for them to go get the best bat available at the position. Cabrera is making $9.625 million this season in his final year of arbitration, and he’ll be a free agent following the season.

If Minnesota targets a bat, who would you like them to grab and why?

 

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[HrbieFan]

Contreras is about the only fit for the Twuns and it is going to take a haul to get him. Would it rattle Jeffers sending him to AAA? 

[Coach Wheels]

My opinion but, they don't need another bat, offense isn't the issue. Get Larnach healthy and your OF and INF depth immediately improve. This team doesn't even have a spot for Sano when he's healthy so adding a bat seems odd.

[The Mad King]

I'm gonna pass on adding offence.

[Don't Feed the Greed Guy]

On June 19th of 2016 I was in Chicago for a leadership conference. I arrived a day early and took the Red Line to the Addison stop. Pirates vs. Cubs. 

In the 6th inning, Wilson Contreras pinch hit for Kyle Hendricks, who dominated the Pittsburgh batters, with 12 k's--one run.

It was Contreras' first MLB plate appearance. Contreras faced AJ Schugel with two outs and on on. Boom! Contreras hit a two-run home run over the ivy in center.

Yes, Contreras would be the only upgrade on this list. At bat, and behind the plate.

 

[Whitey333]

Pitching,pitching and more pitching please.  The offense seems to be ok all though they go through stretches where they are terrible.  Pitching depth is needed

[Byrdman]

We need to be a million percent in for pitching.  Pitching pitching and more pitching.  I want us to get so many arms that we have to start playing them in the field.  We can replace the whole bullpen except for Duran. That is how serious the Twins management should be right now.  I don't understand why they have not made a trade yet.

But if we must get a bat and only if the team says just take him for a bag of baseballs. Then I would like to get Josh Bell. But if we need to use the bag of baseballs for a pitcher then pass for pitching. 

 

[Ryan_K]

Conteras is intriguing, Gary could be gone and Jeffers is batting below 200. I think if we could get him and extend for 4 years 18 mm a year, I would do it. 

[GeorgiaBaller]

This team does not lose games because of bats.  This team loses games largely because the bullpen blows leads.  You have a league leading bat that you shuffle around in the field and a Kirilloff/Larnach duo that both hit well, but alternate spending time on the IL, along with a 3B that is shuffled consistently for playing time and rest.  My point is that daily the Mgr shuffles bats to try and get them on the field---your backups all hit pretty well.  

The starters on this team will not take you far in the playoffs, but can keep you in first during the regular season.  You don't get worthwhile starters at the trade deadline.  And, please don't trade with the Rays or A's or other small market teams that make the playoffs on a fairly regular basis.  they know what they have, you always get taken.

The bullpen needs to be addressed, you need to add relievers---maybe 4th starters from other teams that can shutdown an inning or two. Forget chasing bats and starters.

[terrydactyls]

I'm guessing that this series of articles (including the manifesto) are being written only because the front office hasn't done anything yet to address the bullpen problem, and the folks at Twins Daily feel compelled to provide us with interesting reading until that moment arrives.  IMHO, there is only one area in which to concentrate and that is replacing about half the bullpen with competent and trustworthy arms.  Let's get moving on this Mr. Front Office.  Start putting your new Singular Mobile plan to work.

[umterp23]

Contreras is a nice story but do the twins want a catcher in their 30's on that type of salary?  I don't think so.  They view catcher as a minimum pay position so to speak and Jeffers fits that bill.  Sanchez is a number 1 catcher at all, he isn't lighting the world on fire, barely above .200 and Jeffers is barely below.

Give me PITCHING PITCHING PITCHING and not a 30 year old $10MM catcher.  money wouldn't be spent wisely on any new hitter at the moment

[Doctor Gast]

Besides pitching, catching is an area of need. Contreras would be a very nice upgrade and if we can extend him would make the move feasible. We don't need another 1B/ DH type even if his name is Cruz but he'd be interesting

[Karbo]

What we need is at least 2 good bullpen arms. 2 setup guys that we can trust in the 8th inning and once in a while the 9th to close.

[Bigfork Twins Guy]

We've got hitting coming out of our ears with some waiting in the wings (E.g. Steer, Sano, Larnach when he returns, etc.).  Focus on pitching, especially the bullpen.

[Don't Feed the Greed Guy]

A deal for for Contreras only makes sense if the front office studies his defensive metrics at age 30 (what's up with the -6 DRS this year?). If they conclude that Contreras can improve the bullpen, handle Twins starters better than Jeffers & Sanchez, and bring valued playoff experience behind the plate for a postseason run--then a deal may make sense. 

The bat comes with the glove, of course...

[RMN]

This article mentions Walker and his “ridiculous “ barrel rate of 15% and Contreras hard hit rate of 44.8%, not to mention his -6 DRS. For all the grief Sanchez gets his barrel % is 16.8 and hard hit % is 47.9 with a DRS of 0. In fact his statcast #s are similar to Buxton and he is among ML leaders in most hard hit categories. He may not be getting results but he hits ball hard consistently 

 

 

[Schmoeman5]

I say none of the above, but how about going for the big enchilada. Ohtani. You add a starter on the mound and add a good bat. Give the Angels every single prospect in the farm system. And sell 3 million + tickets until the newness wears off in a couple years

[Greglw3]

Definitely make a play for Willson Contreras. He would be such a vast improvement over Jeffers who lugs that .190-.205 average to the plate and hurts the Twins overall run scoring ability. The Twins do need offensive help. The offense has been very erratic. I’m aiming for a WS here. ANother guy I’d love to have for LF is Andrew Binentendi. That would give the Twins potentially 3 .300 hitters plus Contreras. But they do need an ace type. I think Castillo and Montas both went down, one for a start and the other to the IL. If you read @Aaron Gleeman’s excellent article on 10 relievers available, I ws struck that there are some really good ones that wouldn’t cost too much.

[ashbury]

It's not like we have all-stars at every position on the field.  Still, acquiring a bat means a 25-man and 40-man roster decision. 

Catcher is the one and only position where there is no dilemma: if you trade for someone good (perhaps on an expiring contract such as Contreras) demote Jeffers to AAA, and DFA Godoy.  Easy peasy.  You have Jeffers for next year, assuming 2022 was just something of a sophomore jinx for him.

Every other spot, well, it needs to be a star caliber player, not some 29-year old utility guy having a career year so far.  Bell is the only one I've had any interest in, but with Sano coming back soon, then that's two roster moves instead of one.

[HerbieFan]

Contreras is the obvious fit.  But any resources spent on anything but upgrading the train wreck of a bullpen seems irresponsible.

[SwainZag]

7 hours ago, GeorgiaBaller said:

This team does not lose games because of bats.  This team loses games largely because the bullpen blows leads.  

The Twins have been held to 2 runs or less 30 times this season in 85 games, or 35% of the time.

Their record when they score 0: 0-10.  Their record when they score 1: 3-5.  Their record when they score 2: 4-8.

Total record when they score 2 or less: 7-23.

The bullpen has lost this team it's fair share of games, but the offense has been to blame in a lot of games as well.  That being said, I'm not sure who I would want to take AB's away from at this point.  A lot of regulars have missed games, and there are a lot of young players who are still getting use to major league pitching.  Catcher is about the only position where I see a clear upgrade could be had.

[Brandon]

We have a top ranked offense without a clear need to upgrade.  Trading for an offensive upgrade at C is interesting but then they have to learn new pitchers on the fly while preparing for the postseason.  Our current pitchers like throwing to Jeffers and even Sanchez has been better than advertised on defense.  Our bench is stronger than most teams.  Gordon is even +105 OPS.  We could use some shut down relievers.  Our pen isn’t as bad as everyone here is clamoring.  With our pen throwing so many innings there will be more blown saves.  But getting a pitcher like Rogers from SD would be a big help or I am sure there are others we could target.  I think 2 would position us well for a short series. 

[nicksaviking]

Contreras Iis like a fun idea, but catcher just seems like the one position where it might backfire trying to bring a new guy into the equation.

Half of his job is to understand and build a rapport with the 13 or so pitchers on the team. Seems like a task that works better in February and March.

[Dennesey55347]

Just from a pure-hitter perspective, I'd take Bell in an instant. We have a gluttony of meh BA's right now and as a team do not string hits together for big innings very often. 3.6% of all innings thus far have been of the "4+ hits" variety. Arraez and Polanco are batting well over .300 with RISP yet Buxton sits at .184. Urshela is probably closer to .300 while I suspect the rest are in Bux territory in this respect. Find me another clutch hitter and we're all set. I suppose it doesn't help that the Twins are so risk-averse that stealing bases isn't a promoted practice.

[Danchat]

Yes, the focus needs to be adding pitching, but I wouldn't mind acquiring one of these batters for the right (small) price. I dunno about giving the Cubs a haul for Contreras, catchers don't age well into their 30s. 

[ashbury]

9 minutes ago, Danchat said:

Yes, the focus needs to be adding pitching, but I wouldn't mind acquiring one of these batters for the right (small) price. I dunno about giving the Cubs a haul for Contreras, catchers don't age well into their 30s. 

He'll be a free agent, so do we care about projections beyond 2022?

The short remaining contract should also limit the "haul" to one good prospect.

[Danchat]

2 hours ago, ashbury said:

He'll be a free agent, so do we care about projections beyond 2022?

The short remaining contract should also limit the "haul" to one good prospect.

I saw folks on MLBT talking about him having a high price so I assumed he had another year of control… I wouldn’t mind if he’s just a rental.

[Mike Sixel]

Other than catcher, who do these guys replace? And each add adds a 40 man issue. If we are going to talk adding bats, it would be great if we discussed who they replace. So, maybe the OP can do that?

[SwainZag]

6 hours ago, Dennesey55347 said:

Just from a pure-hitter perspective, I'd take Bell in an instant. We have a gluttony of meh BA's right now and as a team do not string hits together for big innings very often. 3.6% of all innings thus far have been of the "4+ hits" variety. Arraez and Polanco are batting well over .300 with RISP yet Buxton sits at .184. Urshela is probably closer to .300 while I suspect the rest are in Bux territory in this respect. Find me another clutch hitter and we're all set. I suppose it doesn't help that the Twins are so risk-averse that stealing bases isn't a promoted practice.

Bell is intriguing, but who do you give ABs to?  If you play him strictly at 1B, which he is accustomed to, he takes away ABs from Arraez/Kirilloff/Miranda.  While his splits are better than the two rookies, do we want to take ABs from them?  You could play him 1B/DH...but Buck is at DH 40% of the time, Arraez when someone else is at 1B and Polonco is healthy.  Do we want to take the bat out of Luis's hands?  For most most teams you have an obvious weakness...but with Buck not in CF full time, it really throws a wrench in things.  

[Riverbrian]

4 hours ago, SwainZag said:

Bell is intriguing, but who do you give ABs to?  If you play him strictly at 1B, which he is accustomed to, he takes away ABs from Arraez/Kirilloff/Miranda.  While his splits are better than the two rookies, do we want to take ABs from them?  You could play him 1B/DH...but Buck is at DH 40% of the time, Arraez when someone else is at 1B and Polonco is healthy.  Do we want to take the bat out of Luis's hands?  For most most teams you have an obvious weakness...but with Buck not in CF full time, it really throws a wrench in things.  

Flexibility becomes a necessity when a team has actual depth. 

Fitting Bell in is easy, you take a little tiny bit of playing time from everyone.

Multi position players are tentacles that reach out to the entire roster for the sharing of playing time across the entire roster so you can fit in a new impact bat in at any position.

We currently have a bunch of multi-position players playing 1B. 

Kirilloff also playing OF means that Kepler (for example) can give up a little playing time to fit Bell into the lineup. Miranda also playing 3B means that Urshela can give up a little bit of playing time to feed to Bell. It all adds up to Bell getting playing time and nobody losing a tremendous amount of playing time to accommodate. 

Bell adds an OPS of .895 to the squad

Kepler OPS .732 

Urshela OPS .728 

I like Kepler and Urshela but they shouldn't stand in the way of picking up a .895 OPS bat. 

Now admittedly... it becomes much much harder to fit Sano in.