The Five Best Starting Pitching Trade Targets for the Twins

[Ted Schwerzler]

We are officially into trade deadline season and the Minnesota Twins are leading the American League Central Division. Knowing that this club should add in order to make a Postseason push, there’s plenty of places the roster could afford an influx of ability.

 

Last week I wrote a Trade Manifesto presenting 49 names that could be a potential fit to the Twins rosters. The piece covered hitters and pitchers alike, but in this space, we’ll key in on starters. Rocco Baldelli has gotten more than could’ve been expected from Chris Archer and Dylan Bundy, but Sonny Gray and Joe Ryan can’t carry the load themselves.

Minnesota has used 10 different starting pitchers this season, and that number should be expected to rise before the final game. Adding a more stabilizing talent to the group would be a substantial benefit. Even if Kenta Maeda comes back this season, he's likely to be in relief.

• The 5 Best Relief Pitching Trade Targets
• The 5 Best Hitting Trade Targets

Here are the five best names from the Trade Manifesto that they could acquire:

Luis Castillo - Cincinnati Reds - 29 yrs old 1.5 fWAR 3.09 ERA 3.24 FIP 9.3 K/9
The Reds missed Castillo’s presence to begin the year as he was dealing with an injury, but then again they just lost a ton of games he wasn’t part of. Castillo is back to being the dominant starter he’s always been and may be the biggest name on the starting pitching market. Castillo’s xFIP and xERA numbers are both roughly the exact same as the actual marks. His strike and walk numbers are basically what they’ve always been, which is to say very good. The Reds starter has a big 96.8 mph average fastball, but he’s heavily reliant on offspeed to set it up. His whiff and chase rates are both down, but barring there are no big red flags in terms of health, this is an elite arm in every sense of the word. It would also be interesting to see Minnesota pair Castillo with former teammate, Gray. Castillo is being paid $7.35 million this year and is in his final year of arbitration in 2023 before hitting free agency in 2024.

Pablo Lopez - Miami Marlins - 26 yrs old 1.6 fWAR 2.97 ERA 3.54 FIP 8.9 K/9
Miami has two solid arms that should draw plenty of attention. Sandy Alcantara would top this list, but it seems malpractice to deal a guy you just signed to a five-year deal this offseason. Maybe the Marlins would prefer to extend Lopez this offseason, but he should draw plenty of trade interest. The xERA and xFIP numbers aren’t as glowing as the ERA, but the peripherals are intriguing. A loss of just over one mph off of his average fastball velocity from last season is concerning, but he’s also using his fastball more than ever. Lopez has a career-high whiff rate and reason to believe in future projection. He’s being paid just $2.45 million this season and isn’t a free agent until 2025.

Merrill Kelly - Arizona Diamondbacks - 33 yrs old 1.7 fWAR 3.46 ERA 3.40 FIP 7.3 K/9

It may be Zac Gallen that’s the more coveted arm from Arizona, but Kelly currently shows up here. He’s not a high strikeout guy, and the 4.05 xFIP isn’t dazzling even if the 3.58 xERA doesn’t suggest substantial regression. Kelly is giving up more free passes this season, but allowing fewer homers. The 28.8% hard-hit rate is solid, and he misses solid contact with just a 92.5 mph fastball. Most of Kelly’s pitches play of variations from his fastball, but he relies pretty heavily on getting ground balls at a rate close to 50% of the time. Kelly is being paid $5.25 million this season, with another $18 million that kicks in next season and runs through 2024. He then has a $7 million team option in 2025, which would be his age-36 season.

Frankie Montas - Oakland Athletics - 29 yrs old 1.9 fWAR 3.26 ERA 3.30 FIP 9.3 K/9
The Athletics are largely playing with fire in regards to Montas. He was dangled in the offseason and now they’ve run him out for 17 starts. He left his most recent outing with what’s being called precautionary for shoulder inflammation, but Montas being hurt would substantially shift the market. He’s been every bit the pitcher he was in 2021, when he finished 6th in the American League Cy Young voting. Montas has had a 96 mph fastball for years now, and his 12.9% whiff rate is above his career average. There’s not a ton of mystery here, Montas will be among the most coveted arms on the market if he’s healthy. Being paid $5.03 million this season before a final year of arbitration eligibility next year, Montas becomes a free agent in 2024.

Tyler Mahle - Cincinnati Reds - 27 yrs old 2.0 fWAR 4.48 ERA 3.55 FIP 9.9 K/9
If there’s an arm that could have more to give, it may be Mahle’s. He owns a 3.22 xERA although there is the 4.05 xFIP. Mahle doesn’t allow hard contact, having last been over 30% in 2019. This season his fly ball rate and ground ball rate have flipped, but he’s still generate a strong whiff and chase rate. Mahle is a mid-velocity starter averaging 93.7 mph on his fastball. He’s just now starting to use his slider a bit more, and Minnesota may make tweaks to that arsenal with hopes of squeezing out more value. Mahle may not be at his best, but he’s still very good, paid just $5.2 million this season, and is under team control next year.

Which starter would you like to see the Twins trade for and why?

 

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[071063]

Love Montas, Castillo and Mahle. I would take any of them, however, since Montas left his latest start with a shoulder issue, I would be leery of him until you know for sure he is 100% healthy.  At this point, I would deal with the Reds for either of their starters.  We have a history with them and I think we could make it work for one of their two starters for some of our young pitching.

[Ryan_K]

I would have liked Months, statcast is more favorable than Castillo, but the injury has me out. I like Ryan, Gray, Ober, Winder going forward. Next year we add back in Maeda and Padack.

 

I think Archer could play in relief or in a piggy back if the desire is for Balzy, Garland or SWR should join the rotation. Balzy has been rough but it's a knee issue not ark so not concerned long term

[old nurse]

Everything has a cost. The question becomes would you rather have a Winder or one of these pitchers. It is not necessarily Winder but the next capable prospect or two. 

[darwin22]

Doubtful that MIA will make Lopez available, but if he is and the player/prospect haul isn't too outlandish----he is my #1 by a large margin.  

He's the youngest in the group and is under team control for 2 more seasons.

 

[Puckett34]

Mahle and Merrill wouldn't likely cost as much. Having said that, I think it's the bullpen that needs retooling more than anything 

[Coach Wheels]

So, lets say our 4 locks in the rotation are Gray, Ryan, Smeltzer, and Winder. How bad do we really need another starter? Bundy can be #5 and Archer can go to the bullpen and then go get Bednar from Pittsburgh. Much better use of our money in a bad division where we will outhit our rivals

[cHawk]

I personally would go after Castillo. He’s a really good TOR starter and I think, like Sonny Gray, he would improve when pitching in Minnesota.

[2wins87]

They could definitely use a starter to solidify their top 3 or 4 playoff starters.

I'm sort of reluctant to pay the price for all of these guys who will be under control for at least one more year.  All of them will require giving up some very promising player.

I'd be interested in Syndergaard as a rental if the Angels decided they are sellers.  They are a mess of an organization so they probably should, but I'm not sure if they will.  There are some peripheral numbers that have dipped from his pre-surgery performance.  He could still be working back to his former self though, and the Angels aren't known for being great at getting the best out of pitchers.

[Christine]

Our starters are for the most part getting it done. I would focus on finding 1-2 dependable relievers.

[Squirrel]

Just now, Christine said:

Our starters are for the most part getting it done. I would focus on finding 1-2 dependable relievers.

Welcome to Twins Daily ... and I concur!  

[RJA]

Great article, Ted. I would only trade for a number one starter that is clearly better than Gray or Ryan. Of these five, Castillo comes the closest given the inflammation issues Montas is experiencing, but the cost would be extremely high methinks. The question would become who are we willing to surrender for Castillo. Not Kirilloff, Lewis. Winder?  Larnach? Balazovic? Canterino? Wallner? Rodriguez? It all depends on the talent cost. I still think the best approach is get lockdown bullpen help first as most of the starters we do have are 5 innings type starters on most days. Castillo averages 6 plus innings per start which would help, and he at least has pitched in the postseason once. But I still say fix the bullpen first. 
 

[terrydactyls]

A lot of teams will be looking for another starter so I think the price for any of these five would far exceed their value - especially with the starters we currently have or are in the minors/IL.  Throw the prospects at good relievers (and I mean proven relievers, not reclamation projects).  Two would be great but three would be even better.

[Otaknam]

• The BP is the biggest issue. But clearly the Twins   Need a number  one Verlander type starter  to have realistic thoughts about a playoff run. I think these potential trade targets would help, but at what price?

[nicksaviking]

Mostly just interested in the bullpen, but if getting another starter would help boot Bundy from the rotation, or move Archer to the pen upon his return, I'd have some interest.

Pablo Lopez is controlled for another 2.5 years, so he's kind of a different animal. He should cost way, way more, and I don't know that Miami is even open to dealing him at this time. I'd be interested if they were.

No on Kelly and no on Montas. Kelly has no track record for this kind of success and he can't strike anyone out. Montas' production away from the Oakland Coliseum doesn't come close to matching what his asking price will be.

Mahle on the other hand is lights out away from Cincinnati; his road numbers make him look like he could be significantly undervalued. Castillo does seem like the kind of productive prestige name that might send a message to the players and fans that the organization is committed to winning this year, even if I personally think the rest of the young staff needs another year for this team to actually compete for a championship.

 

[Unwinder]

15 minutes ago, Christine said:

Our starters are for the most part getting it done. I would focus on finding 1-2 dependable relievers.

Yeah, I just don't think that the available starters are going to make that much of a difference with our starters already being one of our strongest points. I think the only reason I'd consider selling the farm for another starter is injury insurance. We do have an entire half-season before the playoffs, a lot can happen.

[USAFChief]

31 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

Mostly just interested in the bullpen, but if getting another starter would help boot Bundy from the rotation, or move Archer to the pen upon his return, I'd have some interest.

Pablo Lopez is controlled for another 2.5 years, so he's kind of a different animal. He should cost way, way more, and I don't know that Miami is even open to dealing him at this time. I'd be interested if they were.

No on Kelly and no on Montas. Kelly has no track record for this kind of success and he can't strike anyone out. Montas' production away from the Oakland Coliseum doesn't come close to matching what his asking price will be.

Mahle on the other hand is lights out away from Cincinnati; his road numbers make him look like he could be significantly undervalued. Castillo does seem like the kind of productive prestige name that might send a message to the players and fans that the organization is committed to winning this year, even if I personally think the rest of the young staff needs another year for this team to actually compete for a championship.

 

Concur on all points.

 

[Mike Sixel]

If Mahle is reasonable to acquire, I do that and move him to a two inning RP. I think he'd be nearly unhittable in that role. I don't see Miami dealing either of their top two. Castillo is obviously an interesting starter for a playoff team. I wanted Montas, but not now. 

[PatPfund]

Good article. Everyone is locked in on the bullpen now because of recent meltdowns, but a #1-2 starter is the only thing that will make a serious difference in our playoff chances. Spending prospects to have a better bullpen to beat out Cleveland to win a crummy division is goofy. Without an elite rotation leader, but with a better bullpen, this team might break the playoff streak (might), but will be a serious underdog against likely playoff matchups.

Of the players you name, only Lopez and Castillo would tempt me right now into a serious offer (probably a few drawn from a pool of Larnach, Martin, Steer, Balazovic, SWR, Canterino, etc).

Montas is hurt, and until he definitively shows he is not, Oakland would be lucky to get half of what they could have had two weeks ago. Mahle and Kelly are nice (well, maybe they could be), but they aren't even as good as Winder right now (who shouldn't be on the edge of anything; he is the team's 3rd best starting pitcher).

If you can't get an elite SP, spend one or two of your fungible AAAA starters like Strotman/Sands for an extra bullpen arm, win the Central, and save the prospects for the offseason or next year. (Seriously, don't repeat the stupidity of sending an everyday elite prospect, like, say, Wilson Ramos, for a supposed back-end bullpen savior, like, say Matt Capps, only to have the Twins swept out of the playoffs so badly they don't even get to use their 'savior'. Who FYI could be out of baseball in two years because that's life as a relief pitcher.)

[Bigfork Twins Guy]

I agree that relief pitching is of higher priority.  That said, this article is about starters so I vote for either of the Red's starters.  Maybe get some feedback from Sonny on which one would fit better in our rotation.

[JakeBru3]

I think the people who are saying our SP is already stable and hasn't been an issue so we don't' need a SP are probably worried about winning the division and not making any noise in the post season. 

Need a legitimate #1 or #2 starter if you have any chance at winning playoff games. A playoff rotation of say Castillo, Gray, Ryan at the front of the rotation is the minimum you'll need. Also strengthens bullpen by allowing Ober, smeltzer, ect.. to throw out of the bullpen come postseason. 

Winder, Ober are fun young guys with upside who hopefully are longterm answers for us but when you get to the postseason again Houston, NYY or TOR they have proven pitchers with really good lineups.  Need an Ace to go against those lineups come postseason. 

Winder, Ober, Smelzter round out the rotation nicely to win a bad division and be ok with no post season success. 

[IndianaTwin]

1 hour ago, Unwinder said:

Yeah, I just don't think that the available starters are going to make that much of a difference with our starters already being one of our strongest points. I think the only reason I'd consider selling the farm for another starter is injury insurance. We do have an entire half-season before the playoffs, a lot can happen.

Winder was injury insurance last night. Ober is on the way back, and now I’m wondering if Aaron Sanchez is turning into rotation insurance in St. Paul. 
 

I think the preferred way to injury insurance for the starters is a better bullpen. 

[Unwinder]

1 hour ago, JakeBru3 said:

Winder, Ober are fun young guys with upside who hopefully are longterm answers for us but when you get to the postseason again Houston, NYY or TOR they have proven pitchers with really good lineups.  Need an Ace to go against those lineups come postseason. 

I think better starting pitching changes the equation, just not by very much. How many times have we seen the Twins shell proven aces this year already? And how many times have we seen them shut out by mediocre guys? It's always going to be a game of chance, and I think the best we can do by upgrading starting pitching is tweak the odds by a few percentage points. That's worth a handful of good but redundant prospects to me, but not guys I see as the future core.

[JakeBru3]

4 minutes ago, Unwinder said:

I think better starting pitching changes the equation, just not by very much. How many times have we seen the Twins shell proven aces this year already? And how many times have we seen them shut out by mediocre guys? It's always going to be a game of chance, and I think the best we can do by upgrading starting pitching is tweak the odds by a few percentage points. That's worth a handful of good but redundant prospects to me, but not guys I see as the future core.

We've hit some aces well this regular season for sure, and come post season we could do that as well.

When facing Verlander, Valdez, Javier Cole, Taillon, Severino. etc.. I'd like us to be able to matchup starting pitchers. We've seen the rodeo before where we go into post season games with far less superior pitching and have the mindset we have the bats and will just out hit them....that doesn't play in the postseason.

You need DUDES in your rotation that can carry a game if need be. **Also need some bullpen arms to shut the door as well

[Shaitan]

Any pitcher who is not a pending free agent will likely cost something close to what the Twins got for Berries.

Just noting that overlooked detail. It's not a dealbreaker for me, but choose carefully and few of these pitchers move the needle that much.

[Minny505]

Bundy, Ober, Smeltzer, and Winder, all have crazy similar xERA/FIP/xFIP numbers. I would take an upgrade on any of them for our 3rd starter.

Any one of these five guys in the article accomplish that. I'd take the lowest cost in trade capital, whichever that is.

I would move Archer to a bullpen role upon return from the IL and see if he plays up to be a dependable high leverage arm by October. He's clearly the worst of the starters with six better options ahead of him when all are healthy, seven if a trade is made.

[Obligatory: Bullpen is the main area to upgrade thru trades]

[Steve71]

I want to Twins to add relief help, and, being greedy, I want Bednar from the Pirates.  The guys is a stud, controlled though 2027, and, best of all, can get the Yankees out at the end of the game.  His stuff is electric.

Will be costly, but he could pitch for the Twins for the next 6-8 years.

Git'r Done Boys.

[Doctor Gast]

I like Lopez the best right now but I think MIA has grown more attached to him. Not so much on Gallen and ARI said he's not avaiable, I'd say our best shot is Mahle, Montas and Castillo has more hype and Montas has some mystery about his health. Marquez would be a good fit for us but CO never makes up their minds in what to do even when they completely out of it.

[Alex Schieferdecker]

I'm not sure the Twins need to move significant assets for a starting pitcher, barring another major injury. With Smeltzer and Winder capably filling in, the team has a lot of depth, even if no higher-end compliment to Gray.

Then, looking at next year, the Twins have Gray returning, Maeda healthy, and four compelling younger arms in Ober, Ryan, Smeltzer, and Winder, with Paddack likely rejoining the mix around midseason, and who knows who else from the minors.

[bean5302]

Miami desperately needs outfield help now because they're building and we have those outfielders in spades.  Also, the Marlins are deep in pitching prospects like Sixto Sanchez to backfill Lopez when he's gone.