Guardians 7, Twins 6: Another Bullpen Meltdown in Extra Innings Loss

[USAFChief]

2 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

Of Course I can.

Trading Rogers doesn't mean you can't replace Rogers. Maybe the replacement isn't as good but just cause you trade Rogers... it doesn't mean you are forced to roster crap in his place.  

Also... I think it's fair to point out that Pagan can also be replaced and this is perhaps where the Twins are really failing at the moment because the Paddack trade was months ago.

 

 

 

Nope. Relievers the quality of Rogers don't just magically reappear after you dump them.

"Just replace him" is ... poorly thought out. How? With who? The half dozen or more waiver wire wonders we churn through every year? That's how we got where we are.

No, good bullpens aren't accidents, they don't result from "just throw enough **** against the wall and it'll work itself out." Good Relievers aren't "fungible," they aren't "the easiest thing to find at the deadline," and they aren't "unpredictable."

I read over and over how smart Falvine were. Well, own it.

 

[Richie the Rally Goat]

1 hour ago, ChermesZ said:

Solution.

 

DFA Pagan and Cotton

Sands and Winder fill reliever roles.  Ober possibly when he gets back.  
 

 

They need Winder for Rotation Depth, he’s clearly a big league starter.

I’d DFA Thornburg, he hasn’t pitched in a week and was the only fresh reliever last night, the manager still didn’t use him.

Replace Thornburg with Sands as the long man. Just throw innings in those short start blowouts.

[AceWrigley]

I'd just make Jax the closer and run with it for awhile.

Also, Thornburg, if allowed to actually pitch could help the bullpen.

Alcala and Megill returning would help too.

[TwinsAce]

42 minutes ago, TheLeviathan said:

The team definitely needs to invest in another high leverage bullpen arm.  Maybe two.  

But for context.....the team is well within the norm for blowing saves/leads in late situations.  I mean....poor Rays fans.  

This also subtly points out that the Tigers (75% save rate), Rockies (77%), & Orioles (79%) have a surprisingly decent bullpen, especially their closer/setup men.  Looking at ERA for 8th inning or later, the top teams are Tigers, Braves, Phillies, and Orioles (with Rockies at 6).  If you look at 7th inning or later, the Tigers are #3.  9th inning or later? Yankees, Mets, Orioles, & Rockies.  Time to start trading for them...

Tigers:
Fulmer, Soto, Jimenez, etc?

Orioles:
Lopez, Tate, Akin, Bautista, Perez, etc?

Rockies:
Bard, Colome (lol), Kinley, etc?

[farmerguychris]

Time to see if some our our young pitchers are ready to make an impact in relief.  Can't be worse than Pagan or Duffy.  I can't blame Rocco for this - he can only send out there who is in his pen.  If a game drags on, options become more and more limited.  Nice to see him using Duran for 2, I wouldn't have sent him out for a third inning either.

[jorgenswest]

8 hours ago, USAFChief said:

Those of you who crowed about "roster management" when Falvine traded Rogers don't get to complain about the bullpen now.

Nor do those who said the bullpen was fine because they had a good fWAR in September last year.

Nor do those who loved the analytics of this deal comparing the 5 seasons of control and WAR from Paddack and Pagán for one season of a reliever in Rogers. They should rejoice in the fact that the Twins get Pagán for 2023 also.

[DJL44]

14 minutes ago, AceWrigley said:

Alcala and Megill returning would help too.

I haven't heard any good news on Alcala

[Greglw3]

3 hours ago, rwilfong86 said:

Many of Rocco's decisions make 0 sense. The day he cleans out his office I will celebrate by popping open a bottle of wine... and I haven't had a drink in 17 years. 

 

[Sparky55]

Emilio Pagan the new Alex Colome.

[MMMordabito]

4 hours ago, Alex Schieferdecker said:

Pitcher A — 6.5 H/9, 1.9 HR/9, 5.1 BB/9, 7.4 SO/9

Pitcher B — 7.5 H/9, 2.1 HR/9, 5.0 BB/9, 12.1 SO/9

Pitcher C — 9.5 H/9, 1.7 HR/9, 2.9 BB/9, 8.0 SO/9

Pitcher D — 7.3 H/9, 0.0 HR/9, 4.2 BB/9, 7.3 SO/9

You’re Rocco Baldeli, who do you go to with a three run lead in the 10th?

People need to stop pretending like there was an obviously better alternative. The problem is that they are all bad. That includes Cotton, whose underlying numbers are really not discernibly better than Pagán’s, he’s just been luckier so people have fooled themselves into thinking he’s better.

Look at the options above and tell me who you would’ve chosen.

Not Pagan

[jmlease1]

14 minutes ago, farmerguychris said:

Time to see if some our our young pitchers are ready to make an impact in relief.  Can't be worse than Pagan or Duffy.  I can't blame Rocco for this - he can only send out there who is in his pen.  If a game drags on, options become more and more limited.  Nice to see him using Duran for 2, I wouldn't have sent him out for a third inning either.

They're clearly comfortable sending Duran out for 2 innings (which is great and makes him even more of a weapon), but he's not going to be available on consecutive nights if he does. (before someone starts screaming about Rocco and analytics and Moneyball and the alignment of Saturn, just pause for a minute and realize there's literally no team in MLB that would pitch their best reliever 2 innings and then run him out again the next night in June) I think they're comfortable with Jax the same way, but I'm less certain of it. But the reality is you get 2 innings from either of them at most before they get a night off.

I'm thrilled with the way Jax has developed as a reliever, and it's another bit of evidence for while you should almost always give a starter who isn't working out in that role a chance to relieve: jax has increased his K/9, reduced his BB/9 and H/9, he's keeping the ball in the park better and looks every bit the part of a late inning reliever who can handle any leverage situation.

Thielbar seems to be rounding into form; he was probably a little unlucky early (as Perk mentioned on the broadcast).

But we need at least one more guy right now, and figure out one more by the end of the season. Alcala would have been in there for sure and that injury really hurts (especially on top of the other ones). Joe Smith is also a guy who would have been looked at to pitch the 10th, runners on base don't bother him. Pagan & Moran have the stuff to get outs and their ability to hunt Ks makes them suitable for the role, but the wildness gets scary and inability to throw a strike with their best stuff puts them at risk to give up xbhs a little too often.

 

[Mortimerkenny21]

50 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

No, good bullpens aren't accidents, they don't result from "just throw enough **** against the wall and it'll work itself out." Good Relievers aren't "fungible," they aren't "the easiest thing to find at the deadline," and they aren't "unpredictable."

Possibly we could get lucky and find a good RP in the couch cushions or as the young strong farm hands gather for the harvest as one TD writer suggested. Wishful thinking! ?

[AceWrigley]

35 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

I haven't heard any good news on Alcala

Yeah, probably not a good sign for him returning any time soon . . . bummer.

From Rotowire 6/22/22: "Alcala (elbow) will resume his throwing program next week, the Minneapolis Star Tribune reports. Alcala has been on the injured list since April 12 with right elbow inflammation. He made a rehab appearance June 1 but was later shut down again with tightness in his pitching elbow. He's still likely a long way away from returning, but at least he's showing some progress and his setback wasn't season ending."

[Doctor Gast]

Twins started out with a terrible defensive line up, Why did they send Palacios down? We need him desperately to help cover the INF. Again I will say that Cotton makes a much better long relief than short relief. He needs longer time to prepare. Everything else every one has thoroughly discussed.

[BH67]

Well, it's difficult to keep focusing on how this team perseveres despite injuries, illnesses, an unreliable offense and a combustible bullpen.  I will do so...but five gut punching losses in the last 10 days, twice with three-run leads and three outs left to get, is very concerning.  And now the Pitcher Whisperer is leaving.

I know nothing about a practical remedy and won't offer a suggestion. if our starting pitchers stay healthy we're still serious playoff contenders, but Baldelli's decision making increasingly confounds me, especially on relief pitching decisions after the 7th inning.

 

[bighat]

3 hours ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

“Let'shope last night was the last we saw of Duran, the guy's nothing but toxic for this team.”

Please tell me that’s a brain fart…

Yep, I fixed it. Sorry!~

[LastOnePicked]

Can't even imagine what this is like for Jayce Tingler. He's watching Pagan destroy another season for a totally different team, right before his eyes. Maybe even getting the manager fired again in the process.

When some of us said the Rogers trade was a disaster in the making, this is exactly what we meant. And when some of us said that Rocco's inability to adjust when changes are needed - this also is what we meant. Just listen to him make excuses and fawn over Pagan ("his stuff is great, but his execution isn't good" - what the heck IS pitching if not EXECUTION?).

This won't change because Rocco won't demand changes. He seems more worried about clubhouse chemistry than being decisive and taking a stand over player nonperformance. Pagan should not be on this squad today, period. But this will be the Colome disaster all over again.

[Cap'n Piranha]

5 hours ago, Alex Schieferdecker said:

Pitcher A — 6.5 H/9, 1.9 HR/9, 5.1 BB/9, 7.4 SO/9

Pitcher B — 7.5 H/9, 2.1 HR/9, 5.0 BB/9, 12.1 SO/9

Pitcher C — 9.5 H/9, 1.7 HR/9, 2.9 BB/9, 8.0 SO/9

Pitcher D — 7.3 H/9, 0.0 HR/9, 4.2 BB/9, 7.3 SO/9

You’re Rocco Baldeli, who do you go to with a three run lead in the 10th?

People need to stop pretending like there was an obviously better alternative. The problem is that they are all bad. That includes Cotton, whose underlying numbers are really not discernibly better than Pagán’s, he’s just been luckier so people have fooled themselves into thinking he’s better.

Look at the options above and tell me who you would’ve chosen.

I would have chosen a guy who hadn't already blown 3 games against the same team in the last 8 days.  I wouldn't have known if any of them would work, but I pretty confidently would have known that Pagan would not work.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

4 hours ago, bighat said:

Totally agree. What's he supposed to do? He can't run Ryan out there every day followed by Jax for 2 innings and Duran for 2 innings. MLB teams have to use all of the arms in their bullpen. Those arms have to be capable of getting MLB players out! You don't pay Pagan 2 million dollars to warm the bench out there, he's supposed to be able to get the job done, and if he can't the guy has to be cut from the team. Rocco can't cut guys from the team, nor can he switch out the tools from his tool box.

Rocco has put the ball in the FO's court. I'm not saying he's playing 5-D chess or anything like that, but he is taking a very direct approach. Let's hope last night was the last we saw of Pagan, the guy's nothing but toxic for this team.

Agreed, but I don’t think Pagan is “toxic”. He’s been a bad pitcher, but haven’t heard anything about him being a bad team mate, of viewed by his team mates as a disappoint or detrimental.

I hope Baldelli gets better options post haste. Until he gets them, Pagan is required to carry his portion of the work load.

[Cap'n Piranha]

2 hours ago, wabene said:

Since you posted the same thing after the last meltdown would it be 9 games in front now? 

 

Edit:I do agree with you they should be further ahead with even competent relieving. 8 blown games between Duffey and Pãgan. Just a 75% success rate and they are up 8 as you stated. Thank you Central Division! 

Assuming the Twins had won all 4 of the games Pagan has blown, the Twins would actually be up 10 on both CHI and CLE (Twins would be 47-31, Sox 35-39, CLE 34-38).  Even if Pagan "only" blows 2 games, the Twins are up 6 on CLE and 8 on CHI.  That is how disastrous Pagan has been in the last 9 days; he may single-handedly cost the Twins the Central.

[jorgenswest]

11 minutes ago, LastOnePicked said:

Can't even imagine what this is like for Jayce Tingler. He's watching Pagan destroy another season for a totally different team, right before his eyes. Maybe even getting the manager fired again in the process.

Makes me wonder whether Jayce was advocating for this disastrous trade. The front office had to consult with him about Pagán and Paddack before making this move,

[dex8425]

5 hours ago, Alex Schieferdecker said:

Pitcher A — 6.5 H/9, 1.9 HR/9, 5.1 BB/9, 7.4 SO/9

Pitcher B — 7.5 H/9, 2.1 HR/9, 5.0 BB/9, 12.1 SO/9

Pitcher C — 9.5 H/9, 1.7 HR/9, 2.9 BB/9, 8.0 SO/9

Pitcher D — 7.3 H/9, 0.0 HR/9, 4.2 BB/9, 7.3 SO/9

You’re Rocco Baldeli, who do you go to with a three run lead in the 10th?

People need to stop pretending like there was an obviously better alternative. The problem is that they are all bad. That includes Cotton, whose underlying numbers are really not discernibly better than Pagán’s, he’s just been luckier so people have fooled themselves into thinking he’s better.

Look at the options above and tell me who you would’ve chosen.

Rocco said  "we need a full bullpen." Kinda feels like a jab at the FO to me...Right now he does not have a full bullpen. He has one great option and one good option. 

[Squirrel]

1 hour ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

They need Winder for Rotation Depth, he’s clearly a big league starter.

He can be a swing man. He can be a starter when we are down a starter, but be part of a stacking team with either Bundy or Archer when Ober gets back. Or, Smeltzer does this. There are options. Winder doesn't *have* to be a starter.

[LastOnePicked]

5 minutes ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

Agreed, but I don’t think Pagan is “toxic”. He’s been a bad pitcher,

Incompetence is toxic, absolutely. The hitters have put him and this team in position multiple times, and he's failed over and over again. He may be a nice guy, but results matter a lot more at the pro level, and I'm sure the players are wondering why he's still getting all these chances. That will kill the morale of this team - if it hasn't already.

[Cap'n Piranha]

3 minutes ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

Agreed, but I don’t think Pagan is “toxic”. He’s been a bad pitcher, but haven’t heard anything about him being a bad team mate, of viewed by his team mates as a disappoint or detrimental.

I hope Baldelli gets better options post haste. Until he gets them, Pagan is required to carry his portion of the work load.

I think he's toxic in the sense that he clearly works against the Twins winning.  Every single other player on the roster must have been thinking "here we go again" in the back of their mind last night.  Teams have to trust each other, and have confidence in their teammates performing.  Pagan is toxic right now in the sense that he corrodes the team's esprit de corps, vis a vis confidence in winning.

[dex8425]

1 hour ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

They need Winder for Rotation Depth, he’s clearly a big league starter.

I’d DFA Thornburg, he hasn’t pitched in a week and was the only fresh reliever last night, the manager still didn’t use him.

Replace Thornburg with Sands as the long man. Just throw innings in those short start blowouts.

Sands has been awful. No thanks. 

[Cap'n Piranha]

1 minute ago, Squirrel said:

He can be a swing man. He can be a starter when we are down a starter, but be part of a stacking team with either Bundy or Archer when Ober gets back. Or, Smeltzer does this. There are options. Winder doesn't *have* to be a starter.

Yeah, this is what I don't get.  Create an Archer/Winder tandem, and know that you're going to get 9 innings between the two of them every 5 days.  That leaves you 7 arms in the pen to handle the other 4 days.

[Squirrel]

6 minutes ago, Cap'n Piranha said:

Yeah, this is what I don't get.  Create an Archer/Winder tandem, and know that you're going to get 9 innings between the two of them every 5 days.  That leaves you 7 arms in the pen to handle the other 4 days.

Or ... as was suggested the other day ... make Archer and Bundy the tandem ... I mean, there ARE options for having so many starters that are still young, and not having a capable enough BP. Doing the stacking thing would save the BP at least that one day. (I'm not in favor of stacking more than that, but for one 'start', let's try that.)

[Squirrel]

8 minutes ago, dex8425 said:

Sands has been awful. No thanks. 

Yeah ... I don't think Sands is the right choice, either ... but we have Ryan, Gray, Ober (IL), Archer, Bundy, Winder, Smeltzer ... we can figure out something there.

[Schmoeman5]

1 hour ago, jorgenswest said:

Nor do those who loved the analytics of this deal comparing the 5 seasons of control and WAR from Paddack and Pagán for one season of a reliever in Rogers. They should rejoice in the fact that the Twins get Pagán for 2023 also.

So am I reading this correctly. We are to rejoice the fact that the Twins have control of Pagan for 1 more year and a damaged Paddack vs Rogers who would have a nice payday due at the end of 2022 for a 40+ save season. Well hallelujah. That's why the Twinkies struggle. A reliever of that caliber plus Duran can take a team deep into October. But hell yeah, the twins get to groundhog day with Pagan for 2023