Carlos Correa Will Opt Out, Then What for the Twins?

[USAFChief]

1 hour ago, JustinTyner said:

What makes you think dumping big money into the bullpen is a good idea with this front office. Take a look at the track record.

the track record across MLB, in signing big name relievers is actually terrible, so no. Not smart, regardless of tonight.

I can't think of a better way to spend money than on big bullpen arms. Seriously. 

 

[mikelink45]

7 hours ago, JustinTyner said:

What makes you think dumping big money into the bullpen is a good idea with this front office. Take a look at the track record.

the track record across MLB, in signing big name relievers is actually terrible, so no. Not smart, regardless of tonight.

I am not saying we dump lots of money in the BP, but I do think we can invest more and better than what we have.  I also think the majority of money goes to one more starter,  My post is simply the fact that I like Correa, but to think he is worth more than what we are already paying him makes no sense to me.

[Major League Ready]

9 hours ago, JustinTyner said:

What makes you think dumping big money into the bullpen is a good idea with this front office. Take a look at the track record.

the track record across MLB, in signing big name relievers is actually terrible, so no. Not smart, regardless of tonight.

No doubt .... History supports your point that high dollar RPs are the worst possible use of free agent spending.  However, the Twins are going to be in a unique position next year.  They are going to have a great deal of low cost starting pitching for the next few years.  They are also going to have several prearb position players.  Therefore, they will have very few needs that need to be satisfied via free agent spending.  This will make it more feasible for them to make the risky investment in RPs.  That said, I would not look for them to go get a bunch of RPs or spend at the very top of the market.  

My guess is that they make a trade before the deadline for a RP with more than 1 year of control.  If they add just one good RP in the off-season, they will have Duran / Jax / Alcala and the two additions described above.  These 5 RPs should all be high leverage RPs.  They can fill-out the rest of the BP among Stashak / Dobnak / Maeda / Megill / Moran / Hamilton / Cotton and perhaps Canterino / Sands.  

[Battle ur tail off]

19 hours ago, 2wins87 said:

What makes you think he won't get a deal in the range of Corey Seager's or Francisco Lindor's?

Because all the dummie teams already have shortstops. Big market teams. Also, the amount of SS out there for sale. Maybe he will, and maybe I am just being more hopeful than anything. I just don't think that those humongous deals are going to dominate much anymore. 

I'm probably wrong and like I said just hoping more than anything, but 10 year deals are extremely lobsided against the teams that give them about 99% of the time.

[Major League Ready]

4 hours ago, Battle ur tail off said:

Because all the dummie teams already have shortstops. Big market teams. Also, the amount of SS out there for sale. Maybe he will, and maybe I am just being more hopeful than anything. I just don't think that those humongous deals are going to dominate much anymore. 

I'm probably wrong and like I said just hoping more than anything, but 10 year deals are extremely lobsided against the teams that give them about 99% of the time.

I keep thinking the same thing.  These 7-10 year deals that take players into their late 30s almost always are horrible for the team.  I keep thinking teams will quit doing them.  Yet, Lindor, Seager, and Semien got them last year.  

The 2nd point you made regarding demand might be more influential than the previous failures.  The demand will be tempered by Bogaerts, Turner, and Correa being available and the big market teams being set at SS.  The Yankees top 2 prospects are SS and even the Yankees value inserting quality / low-cost players with 6+ years of control.  I could see them playing out IKF's contract and transitioning to Volpe at some point next year.  The Astros have replaced Correa.  The Dodgers will likely sign one of the big 3 but you have a point that a lot of teams are set at SS so buyers will not be as plentiful as normal.  It will be interesting to watch playout.

[2wins87]

I haven't looked closely at his market.  He will have Turner to compete with, who is a bit older and might be looking for a slightly shorter contract that could be more appealing to some teams.  But I have to think that even a disappointing offer in Correa's eyes would have to be 8 or 9 years and at least close to $300 million.

I wouldn't rule out that something like 8/$280 ends up being his best offer.  I can see an argument that the Twins ought to give him an offer at whatever the market rate ends up being.  The Twins could afford a contract of that size.  But it is also just a reality that a contract that big could be an obstacle a few years down the line for a mid market team like the Twins spending at a typical rate to their peers.

Lewis not being ready until sometime mid-season next year makes it harder to see Correa go in the short term.  If you think Lewis will have at least a couple productive years as a primary shortstop though, then Correa probably isn't the most ideal fit anyway.  My base case is for them to move on to a defense first starter to begin the year who can then move into more of a backup/utility role when Lewis returns.  Maybe that could be Palacios, though I'm not sure they wouldn't want to aim for at least a slightly more proven bat.

[Battle ur tail off]

26 minutes ago, 2wins87 said:

I haven't looked closely at his market.  He will have Turner to compete with, who is a bit older and might be looking for a slightly shorter contract that could be more appealing to some teams.  But I have to think that even a disappointing offer in Correa's eyes would have to be 8 or 9 years and at least close to $300 million.

I wouldn't rule out that something like 8/$280 ends up being his best offer.  I can see an argument that the Twins ought to give him an offer at whatever the market rate ends up being.  The Twins could afford a contract of that size.  But it is also just a reality that a contract that big could be an obstacle a few years down the line for a mid market team like the Twins spending at a typical rate to their peers.

Lewis not being ready until sometime mid-season next year makes it harder to see Correa go in the short term.  If you think Lewis will have at least a couple productive years as a primary shortstop though, then Correa probably isn't the most ideal fit anyway.  My base case is for them to move on to a defense first starter to begin the year who can then move into more of a backup/utility role when Lewis returns.  Maybe that could be Palacios, though I'm not sure they wouldn't want to aim for at least a slightly more proven bat.

I'd prefer we didn't give him a huge drawn out super multi-year deal. 

If it takes us adding another year to his deal that is worth even 50 million or upping even the next two years remaining to a number like that I think it is far preferable than having him here until he is 40 years old. 

That said, I would hate to see him go, he is magic with the glove and a great hitter for a SS. Work with him on something but just let him know we aren't going to give you 10 years or 300-400 million bucks. Man it even sounds stupid saying that number. 

[MGM4706]

Correa wants to win. And unless he sees a commitment from the front office to bring in major league Pitchers he will not stay!! He must already be tiring of watching batting practice from SS in the late innings!!