Carlos Correa Will Opt Out, Then What for the Twins?

[Ted Schwerzler]

The Minnesota Twins are just over one-third of the season through their first with superstar shortstop Carlos Correa. He’s been as advertised putting up numbers near the top of his career bests, and leadership remains the name of his game. He’s all but certain to opt out of his deal with Minnesota, but then what happens for both parties?

 

Over the weekend Joel Sherman wrote a piece for the New York Post taking a look at the free-agent shortstop class that was, and the one that is to come. The tandem of the two may go down to be one of the best back-to-back case studies in free-agent history. It’s not rocket science to suggest that Carlos Correa will opt out with Minnesota, but Sherman reiterates it again saying, “Barring catastrophic injury, Correa will opt out of the final two years at $70.2 million owed by the Twins. That will send him right back into the market, along with Bogaerts, Turner and Dansby Swanson.” That’s always been the expectation and should’ve been from the moment Scott Boras negotiated the contract with those terms to Derek Falvey and Minnesota’s front office.

Although the certainty of Correa opting out is there, that doesn’t necessarily mean he’s gone. What happened this offseason was a reflection of the Twins being the best, and maybe most creative, bidder. They could certainly pony up the money again in order to keep their superstar. Minnesota has only $108 million on the books next year and that includes Correa’s $35.1 million. Their $73 million tied to 24 is virtually halved after Correa opts out. In short, there’s plenty of room for them to again, Pay. The. Man. This would obviously be the best case outcome.

A few weeks ago Twins Daily’s Cody Christie wrote about options Minnesota has at the position in the wake of Royce Lewis being lost due to a second torn ACL. We know that he’ll be out for around 12 months, and the only thing guaranteed is that he won’t be ready for Opening Day. What a second substantial knee injury does to a player is anyone’s guess though. One of the greatest strengths to Lewis’ game is his speed. He came back faster and stronger from his last injury, but there’s no telling if the body will respond the same this time around. Whether he’s a shortstop at all after this rehab will be something all parties must take a wait and see approach on.

While Minnesota has to decipher what they will do, and Cody’s options are among those they are weighing, Sherman’s story goes on to paint a cautionary tale when it comes to free agents as a whole. The reality is that money spent with multiple suitors for services often far outweighs actual production. Correa is the lone player from last year’s class performing admirably, but he’s doing so having missed substantial time due to injury and health related issues.

As Sherman points out, Correa and Story were both there for Twins fans to clamor over because their markets weren’t what was expected. We’re only talking about this opt-out because Correa’s deal was set up with an ability to kick the can down the road for a year and hope a more lucrative and longer-term situation played out. With the production tied to nearly $1 billion in spending on shortstops last offseason coming nowhere close in terms of equal value, it’s certainly fair to wonder how teams will respond.

In summing up his piece Sherman says, “In short, the next class at short again is going to be star-studded. Will the previous free-agent class and the coming class of prospects hurt the coming market?” In that, there’s maybe hope that even with an opt-out, Correa finds himself between opportunity and familiarity. Very few instances will ever find the Minnesota Twins as a top bidder, but given needs by all parties in this scenario, there may be reason to believe an agreeable situation can be struck for all.

Carlos Correa is going to opt-out, but then what?

 

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[mikelink45]

If he opts out - move on.  Fill the pen and one more SP.  If he stays I am happy, but its not my money.

[MABB1959]

Make him an offer he can't resist!  We will never get there if we don't start keeping some of our higher performers.  Buxton can't do it alone.  I don't care if "this is not our year".  We keep doing start overs like letting one of the best pitchers go for 2 prospects that don't look all that promising.  Yes Berrios is struggling but I have no doubt nor does his team that he will figure it out.  Heck having a starter that typically goes 7 innings and is never injured would be great.  

[GNess]

If the Twins can get Correa to stay at his current price point and an agreed length of the deal by both parties (opt outs if needed) of course the Twins resign Carlos Correa. He is an elite player and elite players can lead teams to the World Series. (Note: As Kirby Puckett did 2x.)

 

 

[LastOnePicked]

Personally, I think he's a guy you break the bank for. Yes, the last three years of any contract won't be as productive. So what? By that point he can be mentoring Lewis' return to shortstop.

Sign Correa to a 7 year deal.

Slide a rehabbing Lewis over to 2nd to take Polanco's place.

Consider trading Polanco, Martin, Miller and/or Steer for great pitchers.

Keep Palacios as a low-cost solid backup.

I think having Correa here through the 2020s drastically increases the chances of a World Series title in Minnesota.

[Battle ur tail off]

My guess is the market isn't going to be a 7-10-year deal like this guy is writing. 4-5 more years will get him I think. It'll cost, but I am pretty sure the Twins will make a competitive offer. This isn't Terry Ryan. I've been critical of these guys in the past, but they have some stones. 

 

[Original_JB]

I posted about this article yesterday and got my *ss ripped. Thanks a lot.

[Tibs]

Any solution that isn't keeping him with the Twins is a failure

[ChineseGandalf]

29 minutes ago, Battle ur tail off said:

My guess is the market isn't going to be a 7-10-year deal like this guy is writing. 4-5 more years will get him I think. It'll cost, but I am pretty sure the Twins will make a competitive offer. This isn't Terry Ryan. I've been critical of these guys in the past, but they have some stones. 

 

If we can get him on a five year deal, the current number, or even a touch higher would be a steal. The problem with most of these deals are that they are 7-10 years. Even if we get good value in years 1-5, it is almost certain that Correa's production will fall off by the ender of the 7-10 year deal (and possibly dramatically so). I am very concerned about any deal over the five year mark, and I highly doubt that Correa will sign anything less than 7. 

[Harrison Greeley III]

The worst possible outcome when this deal was signed was that he'd be chronically hurt or slumping and then they'd be stuck with an expensive question mark for 2 more seasons. Anything other than that would be a good outcome. If he opts out, the Twins will deploy that money elsewhere. In the meantime they got a 4-6.5 WAR player on a sweetheart one year deal, helping turn a bad/mediocre season into a fun one. 

It's a much better problem to have a lot of cash after good player walks than to be stuck with a 37 year old, sub-.400 SLG Josh Donaldson. I still can't believe the Yankees let the Twins do this. 

[bean5302]

Have to check back near the end of the season, unless the Twins trade Correa and the Twins are 3 games up on Cleveland and 6 games up on Chicago with only 2 weeks until the All Star break so it seems like a trade is getting pretty unlikely.

Lewis' recovery will be considered in the equation, undoubtedly. If the Twins feel like Palacios/Steer/Gordon could technically cover the SS position for a couple months without hurting the club too much. 

Every free agent signing is a white flag for a team. A failure to develop players internally leading to an overpay in the free agency market.

[Jim wyllie]

As I've said before Sherman's report contradicts what Correa was reported to have actually said, first he likes minnesota and his favorite restaurant juicy Lucy's is in minnesota,  second he sees it as a three year deal not a one year deal.  Also why would the twins play royce lewis at center field if they are expecting Correa to leave and if hos market to develop this past off-season why would he put himself back into a shortstop heavy class.  

[roger]

First, I suspect the Twins will work hard to work out some type of extension that would keep him here for at least a few more years.  What that looks like, who knows.  The good news is the team is doing well and it sounds as if he likes it here, a lot.  That should lead to a serious discussion, at a minimum.

I don't have a clue what the TWins will do should he opt out.  I know what I would do, but that is the same as my winning a mega millions lottery....it ain't gonna happen.  I would put Palacios at short on opening day with the intent of Lewis replacing him early next summer when he is 100% back.

[2wins87]

2 hours ago, Battle ur tail off said:

My guess is the market isn't going to be a 7-10-year deal like this guy is writing. 4-5 more years will get him I think. It'll cost, but I am pretty sure the Twins will make a competitive offer. This isn't Terry Ryan. I've been critical of these guys in the past, but they have some stones. 

 

What makes you think he won't get a deal in the range of Corey Seager's or Francisco Lindor's?

[Dman]

Everybody likes Correa.  Falvey, Levine and Jim Pohlad like Correa but if a ten year deal is what it is going to take this FO isn't going to take on that kind of risk even for Correa.  I am not sure if they can work out some sort of compromise for seven years but that would have to be as far as I could ever see the Twins going.  I really hope Correa likes it here but like Buxton he is going to have to come to some sort of compromise if he wants to stay in Minnesota.   

I mean if he just has to be the highest paid shortstop in Baseball then sign him for 7 years at 35M per year with team options for years 8, 9 and 10 at 45 Mil per year.  Give Correa opt outs after years 3, 5 and 7.  Get creative if that is what it takes. At the end of the day if he wants to stay there is going to have to be give and take from both sides.

[USAFChief]

1 hour ago, 2wins87 said:

What makes you think he won't get a deal in the range of Corey Seager's or Francisco Lindor's?

It's more complicated than this, of course, but the reason he's a Minnesota Twin is he didn't get one last winter.

 

[cHawk]

If you want to win a World Series, you keep Correa no matter what the price is. It’s not often that a mid-market team like the Twins has the opportunity to sign a player of Correa’s caliber who is also a former World Champion.

[Game7-91]

Correa is the lone player from last year’s class performing admirably,

He's also the only one playing essentially a contract year. Zero guarantee this level of production is sustained if its a 7-10 yr contract.

Rightly or wrongly, Twins leadership is allergic to longer term contracts. If somebody else is willing to go 7 years there is zero chance the Twins will compete with that.

If he struggles to get substantial offers of that term, maybe they talk, but then what is the message to Lewis?

I would be surprised if they seriously pursue an extension.

[Craig Arko]

Clearly trade him at the deadline for Zac Gallen.

[ashbury]

It's a stylistic turn to state such an assumption as fact.  That opinion piece in the NY paper provided no new information regarding Correa. 

[ashbury]

4 hours ago, Original_JB said:

I posted about this article yesterday and got my *ss ripped.

As one who rebutted, I'm sorry you felt it got personal.  That wasn't my intent.

[The Mad King]

Great article, Ted 

[DocBauer]

Unfortunately, repeating comments I made a few weeks ago, there is this baseline belief he was seeking a 10yr deal. Was that because someone else got one? Was this his idea? Regardless, even if that was a benchmark, he's playing this year at $35M so we're talking about a 9yr deal now, theoretically. 

The world went FA SS crazy last year for everyone but Correa. Why? Not because he's not an outstanding player surely. Only one team was willing to go 10yrs, and they did, and for someone else. 

So this while 8-9-10 year debate may just be a moot point. 

I think the Twins would go 7yrs. But  I dont know they could still afford those last 2-3yrs unless they front loaded the contract. They can afford to do that while maintaining greater flexibility down the road.

I just done see it coming together. But I never saw this deal happening either.

Were i a betting man, I'd bet Steer/Palacios/Gordon to begin 2023 and the question is if a 1yr place holder is brought in.

[Tim]

Honestly if the market isn't materializing for shortstops the way Boars and Correa want it to, opting in for next season isn't that insanely far fetched.

Twins tack on another year at same AAV of 35 w the same opt out clause for his protection, and he and his camp can wait until after the 2023 season. He'll only be 29 at that point.

[jkcarew]

He’s opting out. The only way he doesn’t is if he’s chronically injured or plays very poorly. Nothing has changed there.

If the market is relatively soft, the Twins might have a chance.  Otherwise he walks.  I believe they’d give Lewis a shot.  I wouldn’t consider going with an overall #1 draft pick, who seems to be ready “starting over”…albeit, somewhat of a risk given injury history.

[tony&rodney]

We can all agree the New York Post is less than worthless.

Correa? That is future Falvey's problem. We can certainly just have Carlos until this season is complete, so no worries for now.

[MTV]

Offer Correa his big contract, the Twins have the payroll. If not, either trade for a major league ready SS, sign Dansby Swanson, or trade for Amed Rosario. I don’t think Bogaerts or Turner would fit in Minnesota and Amed Rosario seems to be the only reliable SS with an acceptable trade value.

if the Twins can trade off some of their veterans, this team is looking at $60-$80 million of Free Agency money, and could look spectacular next season.

[JustinTyner]

11 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

If he opts out - move on.  Fill the pen and one more SP.  If he stays I am happy, but its not my money.

Paying bullpen arms is the dumbest idea thrown out possible

[mikelink45]

11 minutes ago, JustinTyner said:

Paying bullpen arms is the dumbest idea thrown out possible

And that is because the bullpen doesn't mean anything. Just like tonight who cares just throw any arm out there

[JustinTyner]

50 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

And that is because the bullpen doesn't mean anything. Just like tonight who cares just throw any arm out there

What makes you think dumping big money into the bullpen is a good idea with this front office. Take a look at the track record.

the track record across MLB, in signing big name relievers is actually terrible, so no. Not smart, regardless of tonight.