What Does a Carlos Correa Extension Look Like for the Twins?

[Ted Schwerzler]

This offseason the Minnesota Twins shocked the baseball world when an early-morning deal was reached with superstar Carlos Correa. The three-year contract features an opt-out, but both sides could be amenable to a longer term situation. What would that look like?

 

Carlos Correa’s current contract is a three-year deal for $105.3 million. The deal is noteworthy for a couple of reasons. First, the opt-out comes after year one, in which Correa could look for another payday on the open market with a different group of shortstop competition. The other level of intrigue comes from the $35.1 annual amount, which checks in $100,000 more than Anthony Rendon’s deal. That $100,000 put him above the other Scott Boras client and made Correa the highest-paid infielder in Major League history.

Of course, the expectation has always been that Correa would opt out with Minnesota and look for a bigger payday. He did indicate there was interest in a long-term deal with the Twins though, and the second ACL tear for Royce Lewis could clear the way for a stable need at shortstop. Assuming both sides are interested in finding a workable future, the one-up of this contract may also come into play.

Rendon’s deal was signed with the third basemen at the age of 30. He was paid $245 million for seven years. It’s been a colossal disaster in that he’s played just 155 games over his first three seasons with the Angels. Correa will be just 28 years old next season, a notably younger age than that of Rendon. It would hardly be shocking if the desire was for any extension to be something in the neighborhood of 10 years.

Minnesota has not previously gone long term with pitchers under this regime, but they have shown an inclination to spend. Getting the Twins to hand out a ten-year deal to Correa seems unlikely from both a term and financial perspective. Knowing that a deal of that size would be something like $350 million probably takes it off the table. If Correa was open to a seven-year pact, however, this front office may find value in paying a superstar at an integral position something like $250 million.

If Correa was open to a $35.5 million annual number, he’d be at $248.5 million over the life of the deal. Maybe that’s not enough of a step up from what Rendon got given the two years of age to his credit, but that’s probably a ballpark worth hypothesizing about.

No matter what the eventual number winds up being, it’s hard to wrap your mind around the Twins being the team to dole out that cash. On the flip side, this is a player they will have gotten to know for a full season, and has been lauded for his leadership and ability throughout the organization. With no surefire answer at the shortstop position for 2023, the alternative is likely a much lesser stopgap option.

This core of Twins talent is exciting and seems to mesh well together. Putting Lewis and Correa on the same side of the infield for the next handful of years is something everyone in Twins Territory could get behind. Like Buxton before him, Correa would be in a place providing Minnesota sole negotiating opportunity. They aren’t going to get the discount afforded them by their other superstar, but this one stays on the field and should be worth every penny as well.

Some deadline additions and a postseason run could continue to help Minnesota make its case as a compelling suitor for Correa. So far they've put the right feet forward. The next one will be to present the bag.

 

View full article

[PatPfund]

Your deal does make more sense for the Twins, but not Correa. It is roughly $100 million less, and there is close to zero chance Correa will make $100 million while he is 35-37 (it certainly wouldn't be at SS). That means it is DEEPLY in his interest to max out his current worth now when he can lure a team into thinking the wasted end-contract seasons are worth it.

Barring injury, or his performance going in the tank (which I don't expect), Correa will opt out.

If/when he opts out, he probably has about 5 years where he might be worth $35 million per, and that is as far as the Twins should look. in their offers. If/when he signs elsewhere, we should tip our cap for (hopefully) a great year, and take that $35 mill out for a spin on the FA market.

[Mark G]

I believe they are in contact with Boras as we speak, but are in the preliminary stages still.  And it will come down to more than dollars and years; it will involve things like options (opt outs?), and what years they kick in, and no-trade clauses or, at the very least, a list of teams we can trade him to.  The numbers he may settle for would be 8 and 285-290, that is if Boras doesn't hit him upside the head.  I think we have the ability to pay with all the young talent (aka cheap talent) we have to surround him with, and I hope they get it done.  But it may have to be by late July, or we may panic and sell while there is still value.  The best chance in decades, with the possible exception of Mauer, to secure a superstar in his prime.  Get it done, boys!!

[Mark G]

1 minute ago, Mark G said:

I believe they are in contact with Boras as we speak, but are in the preliminary stages still.  And it will come down to more than dollars and years; it will involve things like options (opt outs?), and what years they kick in, and no-trade clauses or, at the very least, a list of teams we can trade him to.  The numbers he may settle for would be 8 and 285-290, that is if Boras doesn't hit him upside the head.  I think we have the ability to pay with all the young talent (aka cheap talent) we have to surround him with, and I hope they get it done.  But it may have to be by late July, or we may panic and sell while there is still value.  The best chance in decades, with the possible exception of Mauer, to secure a superstar in his prime.  Get it done, boys!!

And yes, I know I left off Buxton, because he has never stayed on the field long enough to prove superstar status.  If he does, I will take the flak.    

[Brandon]

I think we could do the contract.  I think an 8 year 280 million or 9 year 300 million is the ballpark of a solid contract.  Remember to add 1 year and 35.1 million to your contracts to get to where he was trying to get to last offseason.  
 

Now for the fun part.  We have lots of cheap talent so we can afford his salary.  What about 4-6 seasons in when everyone else gets expensive.  We could bow the contract so we have more money during those years.

season 1 - 42.5 million

season 2 - 42.5 million

Season 3 - 40 million

season 4 - 25 million

Season 5 - 20 million 

season 6 - 30 million 

season 7 - 40 million

season 8 - 40 million

season 9 - 20 million

9 year 300,000,000 contract.  Opt out after season 5 and 8.  

[chpettit19]

10 years, 325 mil. The most obvious comp for Correa is a 28 year old SS. It just so happens Scott Boras just represented a superstar SS that is 5 months older than Correa just last year. Corey Seager got 10 years and $325 million. Seems like a pretty obvious place for Correa to start his negotiations.

[bean5302]

A delusional exercise by an unrealistic fan base is what it looks like.

[mnfireman]

15 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

10 years, 325 mil. The most obvious comp for Correa is a 28 year old SS. It just so happens Scott Boras just represented a superstar SS that is 5 months older than Correa just last year. Corey Seager got 10 years and $325 million. Seems like a pretty obvious place for Correa to start his negotiations.

So 7/$220 MM seeing how he signed for 3/$105MM, total of 10/$325 MM. If both sides could agree to front load it a little bit and/ or put in an opt out after year 5 or 7 years (when he is no longer an elite SS but a good 2B or 3B) I think it could be a win-win. He has stated he likes it here, he would be playing most of the contract with Buxton, Arraez and whichever of the young guys develops and the team keeps, and his post-season experience and club house presence would help immensely. 

[lukeduke1980]

Boras knows the list of teams potentially needing a SS next year, including the Dodgers, Cubs, Cards, and maybe Yankees.  There's only a top 3 with Bogarts and Turner.  I suspect Boras convinces Correa to play the field, not sure if any contract proposal can get ahead of that.

[Heiny]

Correa looks great in a Twins uniform.  And I hope they figure out something to keep him for another 5-7 yrs.  He says he likes it here and he seems sincere about it.  Would the Twins like to be perennial contenders?  This would be a great place to start.  And IMHO he adds recruiting value for SP's.  What pitcher wouldn't love to have Correa fielding the SS position behind them?  Let's find a way.  (another Twins uniform in the HOF?) 

[Dman]

46 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

10 years, 325 mil. The most obvious comp for Correa is a 28 year old SS. It just so happens Scott Boras just represented a superstar SS that is 5 months older than Correa just last year. Corey Seager got 10 years and $325 million. Seems like a pretty obvious place for Correa to start his negotiations.

Yeah I think Turner and Bogaerts will be looking for those types of AAV's and years as well.  All three seem clumped together offensively but only Correa with the platinum glove. 

While I would like to think keeping the AAV around 35M per year on a 7 year deal with an opt out after year's three and 5 could get it done I am likely in dream land.  He really only gets one shot at this so likely going to make a top revenue team pay big and go 10 years adding another 100M to the deal.  I am sure he likes it in Minnesota but unless he has a Byron Buxton attitude he likely isn't going to take less to stay here and the Twins aren't going to box themselves into a ten year deal. 

Final analysis I just don't see Minnesota getting it done at those dollars and years.  Also looking into the future it limits any homegrown stars they can keep as well.  Also if we do have good players coming up then Arb salaries could make things tough as well.  Just not sure Mr Pohlad is going to keep upper limit payrolls long term either.  This is gamble that seems to big for this team.

[farmerguychris]

Of course I'd love to have a star like Correa on our team for years to come.  But with that said - at what cost would it come to our potential success?

Fact is - we operate on a budget - like it or not.  Do you like the current pitching situation?  What we have on the mound is likely what we will be able to afford going forward if we have 30-40M invested in one positional player annually.  Only possible way to change the mediocrity of our pitching would be to develop a star from our prospects and even then the likelihood of extending them if they become a star is drastically reduced by the large amount committed to CC.  

Lets absolutely enjoy him while he's here.  I pray he stays at least one more year so Lewis can get healthy, but after that I think we have 2 choices.  We can sign someone like CC to be our star, OR we can truly try to compete for a championship.  I don't think we can have both with this ownership group who exercises their right to have follow a reasonable budget the past few years.  

[dex8425]

1 hour ago, Mark G said:

And yes, I know I left off Buxton, because he has never stayed on the field long enough to prove superstar status.  If he does, I will take the flak.    

Correct. You can't be deemed a superstar if you've never even been an all-star or received top ten MVP votes. 

[sampleSizeOfOne]

Not thinking hard, nor holding my breath.

 

Will imagine it after '23 if he has exercised neither of his opt outs. And then... Um... Probably does depend on how these two seasons play out.

[chpettit19]

5 minutes ago, Dman said:

Yeah I think Turner and Bogaerts will be looking for those types of AAV's and years as well.  All three seem clumped together offensively but only Correa with the platinum glove. 

While I would like to think keeping the AAV around 35M per year on a 7 year deal with an opt out after year's three and 5 could get it done I am likely in dream land.  He really only gets one shot at this so likely going to make a top revenue team pay big and go 10 years adding another 100M to the deal.  I am sure he likes it in Minnesota but unless he has a Byron Buxton attitude he likely isn't going to take less to stay here and the Twins aren't going to box themselves into a ten year deal. 

Final analysis I just don't see Minnesota getting it done at those dollars and years.  Also looking into the future it limits any homegrown stars they can keep as well.  Also if we do have good players coming up then Arb salaries could make things tough as well.  Just not sure Mr Pohlad is going to keep upper limit payrolls long term either.  This is gamble that seems to big for this team.

I think Turner and Bogaerts being available leaves the door open just a crack for the Twins.

If the Sox were willing to pay Bogaerts his asking price I'd think they already would have. From the reports out there he's pissed at their offers and he's out the door after this season. Are they good with shifting Story back to SS, or would they be willing to pay Correa what they wouldn't pay Bogaerts?

I have to assume the Dodgers sign 1 of these 3 guys, and I'd guess it's Turner since they're familiar with him, but it really could be any of them.

The Yankees will be interesting. The reports have been they aren't going to spend big on a SS because they have cheap ones on the doorstep that they believe in. If they come up short this year does that change? If they can't/don't keep Judge does that mean they shift to paying a SS?

Can Philly afford a premiere SS? 

What is happening with the Cubs? Are they going to pay one of these guys what they wouldn't pay Baez, Bryant, or Rizzo?

The Angels get crazy and add yet another massive position player contract?

I don't think there's any chance the Twins would go 10 years, but I think there's a remote chance they'd go 7. And that may end up being enough if his market fails to materialize again. I certainly wouldn't predict a Correa extension, but wouldn't say it's a 0% chance either. Will be another interesting offseason of SS contract watching.

[TheLeviathan]

With the way we know middle infielders age....I'd be really wary of a deal in the 7-10 year range.  But I doubt any team locks in him in with less term than that.  

I'd happily pay him 3 years and 45M per, but I don't think he goes for that either.  Which leads me to believe an extension just isn't in the cards.

Baseball can't get a salary cap soon enough.

[Dman]

4 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

I think Turner and Bogaerts being available leaves the door open just a crack for the Twins.

If the Sox were willing to pay Bogaerts his asking price I'd think they already would have. From the reports out there he's pissed at their offers and he's out the door after this season. Are they good with shifting Story back to SS, or would they be willing to pay Correa what they wouldn't pay Bogaerts?

I have to assume the Dodgers sign 1 of these 3 guys, and I'd guess it's Turner since they're familiar with him, but it really could be any of them.

The Yankees will be interesting. The reports have been they aren't going to spend big on a SS because they have cheap ones on the doorstep that they believe in. If they come up short this year does that change? If they can't/don't keep Judge does that mean they shift to paying a SS?

Can Philly afford a premiere SS? 

What is happening with the Cubs? Are they going to pay one of these guys what they wouldn't pay Baez, Bryant, or Rizzo?

The Angels get crazy and add yet another massive position player contract?

I don't think there's any chance the Twins would go 10 years, but I think there's a remote chance they'd go 7. And that may end up being enough if his market fails to materialize again. I certainly wouldn't predict a Correa extension, but wouldn't say it's a 0% chance either. Will be another interesting offseason of SS contract watching.

That is some good analysis and I feel pretty much the same way.  The Dodgers will get their pick and I think with that cheating scandal with Houston I think they hang onto Turner and spurn Correa.  I guess I am not sure I understand the Red Sox reluctance on Bogaerts?  Are they no longer willing to box themselves into 10 year deals?  Are they thinking like you that there really isn't a market for 10 year SS deals or do they want to make a play for Turner or Correa.  I just don't see Story being a long term answer there but maybe he is good enough and doesn't break the bank for them.

Given the money the Phils handed out this year and their desperate need for more pitching I can't see them being able to afford any of the top three shortstops even if they want to.  Unless of coarse they can work out some trades.

The Cub's have the money but would likely be wasting some prime years on whoever they get because they aren't ready to compete anytime soon IMO.

Angels seem out to.  If other teams don't want to do those 10 years deals I think the Twins could compete with a seven year deal with multiple opt outs. I think for the right player the Twins could make a play for that length of contract.

[cHawk]

I feel like they could get something done with Correa. He’ll want a lot of years and a lot of money. It would be a risk, but sometimes you need to take risks.

That being said I don’t see the Twins giving him a contract for more than 4-5 years, because the Twins seem to be averse typically to such deals. (The Buxton extension was 7 years, but that contract is very incentive-based)

I would love to be proven wrong and see the Twins do it.

[Brandon]

With inflation where it is now.  a 30 -35 million in year 10 will not be worth as much as you think.  maybe Correa decides he would rather see what happens with inflation as a 50 million contract may be what the average starter is making by then,

[terrydactyls]

22 minutes ago, Brandon said:

With inflation where it is now.  a 30 -35 million in year 10 will not be worth as much as you think.  maybe Correa decides he would rather see what happens with inflation as a 50 million contract may be what the average starter is making by then,

Excellent point!  I remember when Killebrew got his first $100,000 contract.  What a shocking amount.

[Jham]

I've long said that some teams use the additional years as a way of financing. Player salaries keep going up. Insurance covers risks of injuries.

[Major League Ready]

28 minutes ago, Brandon said:

With inflation where it is now.  a 30 -35 million in year 10 will not be worth as much as you think.  maybe Correa decides he would rather see what happens with inflation as a 50 million contract may be what the average starter is making by then,

Why would you think that inflation will lead to higher MLB revenue and consequently higher salaries?  Luxuries and entertainment spending are the first thing to go when an economy tightens.  Contracts are not going to reflect a cost of living increase.  

[Brandon]

5 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

Why would you think that inflation will lead to higher MLB revenue and consequently higher salaries?  Luxuries and entertainment spending are the first thing to go when an economy tightens.  Contracts are not going to reflect a cost of living increase.  

most baseball revenue comes from TV, internet and other such broadcasting.  not from attendance like it used to be back in the day.  but to offset fewer attendies you will have higher game ticket prices.  especially in concessions.  Also when using streaming services baseball is a less expensive luxury then so many others.  Are you going to cancel cable?

Also I guess I should also qualify the higher contract of say 50 million per year may be less total dollars then today comparatively speaking.  the average salary could be significantly higher as a result of inflation too.  its all relative.... 

[Major League Ready]

41 minutes ago, Brandon said:

most baseball revenue comes from TV, internet and other such broadcasting.  not from attendance like it used to be back in the day.  but to offset fewer attendee's you will have higher game ticket prices.  especially in concessions.  Also when using streaming services baseball is a less expensive luxury then so many others.  Are you going to cancel cable?

Also I guess I should also qualify the higher contract of say 50 million per year may be less total dollars then today comparatively speaking.  the average salary could be significantly higher as a result of inflation too.  its all relative.... 

40% of revenue is associated with people attending games.  The associated revenue is more likely to decrease than increase.  TV contracts are 20+ years so the existing contracts are not going up.  Inflation is not going to result in higher player contracts.  Any increases in revenue would likely be new revenue streams.

BTW ... Raising prices because people are not buying your product kind of flies in that old theory about supply and demand.

[MN_ExPat]

3 hours ago, bean5302 said:

A delusional exercise by an unrealistic fan base is what it looks like.

Dude... It appears that you feel this discussion may be a fool's errand, ok... that's your right to feel that way. 

But I have to ask, what purpose does it serve to speak thusly?  Maybe it is a pipe dream... so what?

[DocBauer]

Sorry, years and dollars are just too much for this to happen, much as it would be fun and I've turned in to a big Correa fan. But I can and will play along.

I understand the whole 10yrs and $35M per since it's been handed out to a similar player. But I have to say, just because it's been doesn't mean someone will do it again. I mean, you only need one team, but that team might have been the team that did so last year. Plus, you may have your choice of 3 very good ones again this year. Regardless, Correa is already playing this season for $35M, so he's really looking at a 7-9yr deal if/when he opts out.

If the market just isn't there for 8 or 9 years, the Twins could go 7 and not feel bad about themselves. And as Brandon addressed earlier, the Twins would be in a position the next few years to front load the contract. This allows greater flexibility down the road for extensions and signings, and doesn't handcuff the payroll in Correa's final seasons when he will inevitably begin to decline.

That's about the only way, 7yrs and front load the first few years.

 

[Vanimal46]

I’d go up to 8 years and include any opt outs or vesting options necessary. I’d also feel pretty comfortable with the FO or future FO getting out of the contract before the 8 years are up. 

[bean5302]

1 hour ago, MN_ExPat said:

...But I have to ask, what purpose does it serve to speak thusly?...

humor, irony

[Brandon]

1 minute ago, bean5302 said:

humor, irony

and its fun to play arm chair GM and or building a consensus in the process.

 

[Rosterman]

A 10-year deal...a team has to hope for topflight production the first seven years, and that major league salaries will catch up to your payouts in years 8-10 to not make it look so bad that you carrying the guy on your roster.

 

Because of his age, Correa can also gamble on the front end. Would he roll over and take $35 million - $105 for a reworked 3-year deal with the Twins with opts outs? 

Is it all about money? That is the horror, stupidity, the-destruction-of-baeball-as-we-know-it. How much does a guy want and what team is willing to pay the amount when they can possibloy get same production for less and also not have the salary sitting on their books. 

Correa signing was a stroke of genius. The Twins ahd the money off their books, and also a good chance to still have it off next season, too. They could afford to do an outrageous one (or two) off. Especially knowing that the player needs to produce above-and-beyond potential if they want still another much bigger payday.