Minnesota’s Second Coming of Rod Carew

[Blyleven2011]

2 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

Zero "stat geeks" have said BA doesn't matter. Sigh.

Arraez has been amazing this year (and last). It really is special what he's doing right now. 

Yes Arraez has been amazing this year but he has been  great to have in the line up since he came up in 2019 ... THE PEOPLE ARE SPEAKING AND HE IS FINALLY GET HIS RESPECT  ...

Yes batting titles are great and I hope he ties carew with a .388 average or even better ..

Here's to you major leaguer ( big leaguer  ) go for it  ...

My comparison of Arraez ( major leaguer) is his batting stance is like qywnn  and though he doesn't use his wrist and slap the ball like carew  he hits like carew going opposite field  , basically he hits it where the pitch is pitched ( that is bat control  like carew as well )  ....

Love his energy he sparks at the top of the batting order by getting on base  ,,, he may be the first twin to score a hundred runs a season in quite awhile  which in my opinion getting on base with hits and hitting for average and scoring runs  is productive  ... he has better speed than some say ,,, Rocco doesn't have either Arraez or Buxton steal bases to cut down on injuries ....

His love of the game reminds me of Puckett alittle ,, Puckett was more charismatic though but brought his energy to the game as well  and players feed off that ...

I hope  FO rewards him with an extended contract and he is here for many more twins seasons  ....

There's nothing better than watching  a professional hitter hit even if he doesn't hit for alot of power  ...

[chinmusic]

1 hour ago, roger said:

My point was that he has similar energy.  Did mention that the comparison ends when he steps into the batter's box.

Indeed you did!?

[Bigfork Twins Guy]

You did not mention that even Carew has been closely watching him and roots for him and has mentioned similarities like his crouch at the plate.  I like that he fouls off a ton of pitches while waiting for one to hit.  Rod did the same.  I recall watching him have like 12, 13, etc. pitch at bats just fouling them off and then punching one to left field.  This also helps the rest of the line up as they get to see the pitches plus he wears out the opposing pitcher.

I am loving this small ball BB this year and he is a huge part of it for the Twins.  I hope he can hold on for a batting title this year.  Love his energy.  Keep up the great work Luis!

[ashbury]

4 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

Zero "stat geeks" have said BA doesn't matter. Sigh.

Was preparing to respond similarly when I saw yours.  Let me add this perspective: "stat geeks" so "despise" BA that when they designed OPS they included BA twice.  Because BA contributes to on-base percentage, and BA contributes to slugging average  At any given point in a season, a humble seeing-eye single improves a batter's OBP and it improves his SLG (unless maybe he's Barry Bonds on some sort of tear).  And then you add 'em up.

Contact is arguably the most indispensable of the tools, and "stat geeks" honor it in many ways.  Zero "stat geeks" have said BA doesn-... well, you said that already.

[Craig Arko]

I’m a bit surprised there hasn’t been more comparison with Joe Mauer. 
 

But ultimately Luis is Luis and he is and will be one of a kind. 

[rwilfong86]

Would love to see him win a batting title and become a household name. 

[ashbury]

14 minutes ago, Craig Arko said:

But ultimately Luis is Luis and he is and will be one of a kind. 

"One of a kind" is apt.  Baseball-reference.com has this fun tool called Similarity Scores (developed by a certified "stat geek" way back when), and Luis now has enough plate appearances for them to invoke it. 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/a/arraelu01.shtml#all_ss_other

Look at the guys he statistically he matches up with best at age 24.  You have to go down to #6, Matt Duffy, to find a similar player whose career started after 1950.  Luis wouldn't have seemed one of a kind back in 1871, when someone named Ezra Sutton* started his long and not very remarkable pro career.  But Luis kind of is, now, and is indeed remarkable.

It's been said that one mark of a great player is that it's hard to find comparable players to him.  Of course, that point of view can lead you to Willians Astudillo, too.  But it's true of a good unique hitter like Arraez.

* For additional stat geek fun, go to Sutton's b-r.com page and look at his simiiarity scores.  I spotted no names except Arraez (in the age-24 group) from anything like the modern era.

 

[chinmusic]

25 minutes ago, rwilfong86 said:

Would love to see him win a batting title and become a household name. 

How about if he hits .400. That ought to do it! 

 

 

[bean5302]

Arraez's knees should be a lot less of an issue if he strengthens his legs and avoids keeps his weight under control. His sprint speed hasn't shown any improvement this year, but he does seem a little lighter seeing him in person.

It's fun to watch him at the plate this year, especially after he struggled down the stretch last season. I felt the Twins were likely going to move him this offseason, and I still think they would have without the lockout condensing the offseason down.

I'm a big fan of him, but I don't think he's an elite player like Gwynn and Carew were if Arraez doesn't increase his speed. There's also the issue of where he plays. He'll never get respect at 1B or DH without a huge influx of power you wouldn't expect from his smaller size. Playing 2B, Arraez is likely capable of being a perennial All Star.

[rwilfong86]

41 minutes ago, chinmusic said:

How about if he hits .400. That ought to do it! 

 

 

That would be pretty epic!!!

[jimbo92107]

10 hours ago, chinmusic said:

I really don't see the Willans comparison though. Polar opposites regarding pitch count.

There's only one commonality between Arraez and Astudillo: Both rarely whiff. However, where Tortuga could barrel up just about any pitch, he did not have a plan for where to hit the ball. Arraez actually picks his spots to hit the ball depending where he sees gaps in the defense. Also, Arraez is perfectly willing to take a walk, which El Cherubo considered an insult to his manhood. Or something. It's almost like Astudillo was more concerned with looking like a hero than with doing whatever he could to help the team win. 

I still liked Astudillo, because he was a gamer all the way. But Arraez is fully engaged in winning games, whatever it takes. Both are fun to watch, but Arraez is a more effective ballplayer. 

[dxpavelka]

19 hours ago, PopRiveter said:

stat indicative of true performance in and of itself

NO stat or analytic is indicative of true performance in and of itself

[wabene]

19 hours ago, chinmusic said:

Yep, those double digit pitch counts have become an Arraez signature, and they're great!

I really don't see the Willans comparison though. Polar opposites regarding pitch count.

Rog said "The one ex-Twin he reminds me a lot of is Astudillo as he brings a lot of the same energy as the Turtle. That comparison ends however, when he steps into the batter's box."

 

Edit: nevermind

[DJL44]

15 hours ago, ashbury said:

Luis wouldn't have seemed one of a kind back in 1871, when someone named Ezra Sutton* started his long and not very remarkable pro career.

Ezra Sutton is a legitimate Hall of Fame candidate from that pioneer era.

Ezra Sutton – Society for American Baseball Research (sabr.org)

 

[PopRiveter]

21 hours ago, ashbury said:

Was preparing to respond similarly when I saw yours.  Let me add this perspective: "stat geeks" so "despise" BA that when they designed OPS they included BA twice.  Because BA contributes to on-base percentage, and BA contributes to slugging average  At any given point in a season, a humble seeing-eye single improves a batter's OBP and it improves his SLG (unless maybe he's Barry Bonds on some sort of tear).  And then you add 'em up.

Contact is arguably the most indispensable of the tools, and "stat geeks" honor it in many ways.  Zero "stat geeks" have said BA doesn-... well, you said that already.

I remember guys making that kind of argument a some years back. Saying Ichiro's batting titles meant little because he was just a hollow batting average and so on. However, it feels like we've arrived at a more balanced, mature understanding and appreciation of stats today. Discussions have become more respectful and nuanced and you'd be hard-pressed today to find any baseball lover who would claim a .350 batting average could be hollow. 

[ashbury]

12 hours ago, DJL44 said:

Ezra Sutton is a legitimate Hall of Fame candidate from that pioneer era.

Ezra Sutton – Society for American Baseball Research (sabr.org)

 

I probably undersold Ezra by saying his career wasn't very remarkable.  Anybody who gets paid to do something for almost 20 years, even in the early years of a "business", must be pretty good at it.

Depending on what you mean by "legitimate" and "candidate", I'd tap the brakes on his HoF credentials, though.  There are a number of nineteenth century players already in the Hall, and there is a SABR committee that studies that century pretty exhaustively.  In fact, and you might already know this, that committee conducts an Overlooked Legends vote each year, to highlight a player they think should be given consideration by Cooperstown.  A couple of years ago they voted for Bud Fowler, giving impetus to Fowler being inducted this year, so I think this SABR initiative is taken fairly seriously.  I don't recall Sutton being touted for this - I refreshed my memory and he wasn't included in the preliminary round of voting this year, at least.  I guess I could ask around, if it really matters, and see whether anyone there has pushed his case.

If Sutton belongs in the Hall of Very Good, as people sometimes say of players, probably it improves the comparison I was making to Arraez.  So, thank you for that clarification.

[twinstalker]

On 6/14/2022 at 7:36 AM, Old Twins Cap said:

Carew started out as a slender slasher, bunter, speed guy and developed into a professional hitter, with HR power.  He used his wrists to swing -- smooth and quick, right to the ball, wherever it was pitched.

Arraez is a battler who swings with his arms, just hammers the ball.  He's stocky, short and strong, with a quick bat, especially for how hard he swings.

They don't much resemble each other at the plate, just the stat lines.

They do resemble one another in that they seem to be able to control where they hit the ball (when inclined).  Both Carew and Arraez look for openings and have an uncanny knack for hitting them.  That and the supreme knowledge of the strike zone are the two things I see as the same.