Twins 6, Rays 5: Arraez Slam Leads Twins over Rays

[Sherry Cerny]

No Buxton. No Correa. No Urshela. But Luis Arraez, the best hitter right now in baseball, was still in the lineup and provided the power. Chi Chi Gonzalez was promoted for his second start of the season, it was likely to be a bullpen-heavy game. The Twins faced Shane Baz, making his first start of the season after being on the IL all season.

Box Score
SP: Chi Chi Gonzalez: 4 IP, 8 H, 3R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 3 K (67 pitches, 46 strikes (68.6%))
Home Runs:  Luis Arraez (Grand Slam) (3), 
Top 3 WPA: Luis Arraez (.265), Jorge Polanco (.133), Jhoan Duran (.117)

Win Probability Chart (via FanGraphs)

The Rays wasted no time getting ahead of Chi Chi Gonzalez and the Twins with three runs in the first inning. . 

Gonzalez on Friday triggered a minor-league opt-out with the Twins forcing their hand to decide if they will keep the pitcher on the Major League roster or release him. Gonzalez has only one game in the Majors with the Twins, against the Blue Jays where he allowed three runs in three innings before being pulled. The Twins won that game 9-3. 

Gonzalez got out of the subsequent innings in a quick 1, 2, 3 fashion not allowing more runs during his four complete innings in the game before turning it over to the Bullpen at the top of the fifth.

Where the Twins were not getting hits initially in the game, they capitalized on the Rays' mistakes.  In the second inning, Kevin Keirmaier slid past second base followed by Randy Arozarena the next inning who got picked off at first base after attempting to take second base during a fly-out from Ji-Man Choi. Gonzalez settled down and settled into a rhythm to continue the game. 

The lineup for the game was something that felt a little like spring training. Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton were resting today giving the Twins game a small-ball feel as they started piecing runs together in the third inning. First, Gilberto Celestino got on first base. He took advantage of a wild pitch advancing to second base, while Gordon and Jeffers were walked as Baz struggled to maintain control of the strike zone, bringing up Arraez to bat and hitting a 403-foot grand slam, his first-ever, into the right-field seats to give the Twins a 4-3 lead. Arraez raised his batting average up to .369 after his hit in the sixth inning, going 3-for-5 on the day.

As odd as the lineup seemed, it worked.

Audra Martin shared on the broadcast that during an interview with Rocco Baldelli before the game about resting both Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton on the same day.

 

The Rays had used six pitchers by the sixth inning and the Twins took advantage of the rotating door of pitchers. Aside from Luis Arraez, Gilbert Celestino, Jorge Polanco and Ryan Jeffers had strong days at the plate. All three players were crucial in the success of today's outcome as they took turns bringing each other home in the third and sixth innings. Jeffers recently broke out of a 0-21 slump in the series against the Yankees and has continued to make contact with every at-bat. 

The Rays made an attempt to come back, but the Twins bullpen was on fire and managed to keep the Rays from garnering any more runs. 

Do you think the Twins should keep Chi Chi Gonzalez, or DFA him and put the decision back in the veteran's hands? Well, they quickly made their decision. Minutes after the game, it was announced. 

What’s Next? 

The Twins finish out their series with Tampa Bay before another series with the Mariners. Pitching matchups for Sunday: 

• 1:05: Cole Sands (0-2, 8.49 ERA) vs LHP Jeffrey Springs (2-2, 1.62 ERA) 

Postgame Interview 

 

 

Bullpen Usage Spreadsheet

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[roger]

I see Rocco is torn about how best rest his stars.  What I don’t understand is why Sanchez is the DH when Buxton and Correa have how many home runs the last two or three games?  For that matter, I don’t see why either of these catchers is ever the DH.

[LastOnePicked]

At least 5-4 through the nine game gauntlet? The Twins are legit. Not great, not perfect, but legit contenders for the AL Central, and maybe more. Great win today.

[FlyingFinn]

I think most disagree with this - I think Rocco (and I believe this is a combined Rocco and management decision) is doing the right thing by resting Correa and Buxton on a day that a man named Chi Chi is the starting pitcher. The odds were against winning with both in the lineup. They odds are less with only one of Correa and Buxton playing. So, rest both of them - maybe you lose by 10 and come back and win the next day by 1. Or maybe, as happens in baseball, you actually win the game without them. Tampa has to be demoralized to have lost this game with our starting pitcher and with our big bats on the bench. 

Nice job by Chi Chi today after a rough first inning, which included a swinging bunt single. He gave us a chance today.

[BH67]

How many grand slams have the Twins hit this year?  I read some place that the most they've had in a season is 8.

3-7 vs. the Tigers and Royals, followed by 5-3 against the top three in the AL East.  Whatever works...

Also, of all MLB players currently eligible for the batting title, 23 of the top 25 in OPS have at least 20 extra-base hits so far this season -- the exceptions are Giancarlo Stanton (16) and Luis Arraez (8).

Edited June 11, 2022 by BH67
Additional statistical item of note.

[Doctor Gast]

It was a great game that started mainly our B & C squad. Arraez's slammer was amazing. After Chi Chi got settled in, he did pretty well. We could use a spot starter & long relief, I IDK why Chi Chi was DFAed. I don't think they'll trade for anyone soon, although it'd be nice.

[Dave The Dastardly]

6 minutes ago, FlyingFinn said:

I think most disagree with this - I think Rocco (and I believe this is a combined Rocco and management decision) is doing the right thing by resting Correa and Buxton on a day that a man named Chi Chi is the starting pitcher. The odds were against winning with both in the lineup. They odds are less with only one of Correa and Buxton playing. So, rest both of them - maybe you lose by 10 and come back and win the next day by 1. Or maybe, as happens in baseball, you actually win the game without them. Tampa has to be demoralized to have lost this game with our starting pitcher and with our big bats on the bench. 

Nice job by Chi Chi today after a rough first inning, which included a swinging bunt single. He gave us a chance today.

I believe it's the head coach/manager's responsibility to put the best team he can muster on the field on any given day. Trying to plan "rest" days around the odds of winning a game is overstrategizing and pure guesswork. It's sort of like a team deliberately tanking a season in the hopes of garnering a higher draft choice, but in this case, tanking a game in the hope all your stars will be in primo health come the play-offs. Assuming of course they get in the play-offs.

[Mike Sixel]

They did win, right? They won the division two of the last three years, right? They have one of the best records in the league?

It's very hard to tell....

[Craig Arko]

4 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

They did win, right? They won the division two of the last three years, right? They have one of the best records in the league?

It's very hard to tell....

Fire Baldelli now. He’s messing up too many narratives by winning. 

[Peter Labuza]

I think as Nick Nelson pointed out on Twitter, we can maybe be frustrated with how Rocco is resting players, but at least he isn't doing an intentional walk on a 1-2 count and literally getting a "Fire Rocco" chant going.

[USAFChief]

I don't know how long Luis Arraez can keep this up, but it's pretty darn amazing.  I will readily admit I wasn't a big fan due to the lack of power. I thought it'd catch up to him, he'd stop drawing walks, and it'd be tough to have any value.

I hope to continue being way wrong. He's just hard to keep off 1st base.

[Riverbrian]

I would love to live in a world where a manager, coach, player or just plain people can speak freely. 

But... I don't. 

I found it refreshing to hear him lay his cards on the table. (I don't know what the correct answer is and I don't care). 

Unfortunately... what comes next is guaranteed. In the coming days (hours, minutes) his honest words of struggling with a managerial concept will be shoved right back in his face by people who struggle with their own decisions on a daily basis. 

The worst of internet will show up for this and as a result his words will be less revealing next time and we remain in the dark on everything. 

[Riverbrian]

9 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

I don't know how long Luis Arraez can keep this up, but it's pretty darn amazing.  I will readily admit I wasn't a big fan due to the lack of power. I thought it'd catch up to him, he'd stop drawing walks, and it'd be tough to have any value.

I hope to continue being way wrong. He's just hard to keep off 1st base.

That jack cleared the fence by plenty.

He was pretty young when he hit our shores and power can increase with age.

I think the power is there if he chooses to take that approach. I'm just not so sure he should the way he looks right now. 

I'd also like to add that Max Kepler is looking good with this new found ability to go the other way. 

[Squirrel]

1 hour ago, BH67 said:

3-7 vs. the Tigers and Royals, followed by 5-3 against the top three in the AL East.  Whatever works...

Maybe the AL Central is more of a powerhouse than people realize!  

[Squirrel]

20 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

I don't know how long Luis Arraez can keep this up, but it's pretty darn amazing.  I will readily admit I wasn't a big fan due to the lack of power. I thought it'd catch up to him, he'd stop drawing walks, and it'd be tough to have any value.

I hope to continue being way wrong. He's just hard to keep off 1st base.

Well, you weren’t the only one … I was someone advocating to trade him after 2019 for pitching … thought it would be a ‘sell high’ deal … glad I’m not in charge 

[BH67]

21 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

That jack cleared the fence by plenty.

He was pretty young when he hit our shores and power can increase with age.

I think the power is there if he chooses to take that approach. I'm just not so sure he should the way he looks right now. 

I'd also like to add that Max Kepler is looking good with this new found ability to go the other way. 

I'm imagining the following primary lineup: Arraez, Buxton, Correa, Kepler, Polanco, Miranda, Sanchez, Urshela, Lewis.  Not possible due to Royce's ACL tear, but that is pretty tantalizing to consider.  

[Riverbrian]

2 minutes ago, BH67 said:

I'm imagining the following primary lineup: Arraez, Buxton, Correa, Kepler, Polanco, Miranda, Sanchez, Urshela, Lewis.  Not possible due to Royce's ACL tear, but that is pretty tantalizing to consider.  

I like those 9 but I really like those 13 to 15. Larnach is doing good, Celestino is looking good... Gordon is doing well, Garlick is a hitter. Kirilloff could be something, I'm not going to give up on Sano... well maybe... I don't know. Steer is coming hard. 

I'm buying Twins stock. It's at 25.47 a share. 

[Nine of twelve]

1 hour ago, Dave The Dastardly said:

I believe it's the head coach/manager's responsibility to put the best team he can muster on the field on any given day.

I'll disagree with this. I believe that during the regular season it's the head coach/manager's responsibility to set the team up as well as possible for the playoffs/postseason. That can often mean not going all-out to win a particular game. An example of this would be playing second-line players against a non-division opponent with the goal of resting front-line players for an important upcoming intra-division series.

[tjwilliams]

Maybe somebody else already did this, but I wanted to get some context for how crazy Luis Arraez's start has been (he's hitting 52% better than the league average), so I calculated the "batting average above average" for every batting title winner for the last 100 years. Think of it as OPS+ but just for batting average and without any park adjustments.

Prior to this year, there have been only two seasons in MLB history where a player hit 50% better than the league average: Ted Williams in 1941 (.406 BA, 156 BA+) and Ted Williams in 1957 (.388 BA, 150 BA+). Arraez is currently at a 152 BA+. The closest modern comparison (not counting the Covid-shortened season in 2020) is George Brett in 1980 (.390 BA, 147 BA+).

When you consider that pitchers still hit during Williams's time (and Fenway Park was a crazy hitters' park in 1957), it's clear that Arraez is currently having the best season for pure batting average since Ted Williams became the last player to hit .400. 

Now, the league average is likely to come up over the next four months and Arraez is unlikely to keep hitting .367, but for two months, this has been all-time great season for pure hitting.

[darwin22]

A couple of questions and a few observations after today's "W":

1.  Did I miss the corresponding roster move with Gonzalez being DFA'ed after the game? 

I'm guessing (hoping) Ryan will be added back to active roster to start this week in Seattle.

2.  Is Cano the next demotion with Gray (seemingly) ready to return to the rotation this week.

3.  Does anyone else hate/question putting the "contact play" into motion with Jeffers at the plate?

I just don't understand doing so with Arraez on deck.  Yes, it ended up working out later in the inning as Polanco came up with a huge RBI single, but it took 2 hits to do so.

4.  Considering the rough rehab outing by Winder the other night---assuming he's healthy, how much longer does he remain at SP?  Want him back, but with injury issues the last 2 seasons-----what role does he best serve in if brought back to active roster.

Moving on:

Tyler Megill:  I realize a small sample size, but with continued success, can you make an argument that he's surpassed Joe Smith in the pecking order?

Caleb Thielbar:  Like what he's contributed, but I'd prefer to see Moran get more opportunities over him.

Arraez:  Is there any doubt that he's 1 of the Twins (not sure how many more) headed to LA for the AS Game?  Considering how much importance Rocco places on REST, I hope he can find a little time to give him 1 day off weekly.

Duffey:  Is a DFA coming in the near future?  If not, I got to believe he won't be called to pitch in any game unless a SP is getting shelled or has to be removed due to injury.

Sanchez:  With his bat slumping since June 1st (4-32/ .125 avg/ 3 RBI), settle in to see Jeffers--even worse ---1-18 this month-----still continue to get multiple starts each week.  Ugh.  Sure makes me wish for the old days.  I bet Brian Harper, now 62, could still hit .250 today!

and finally:

Pagan:  Nice to see him close out the game today---especially dominating Margot to end the game---where did that 97mph gas come from?  Saying that, it sure would be nice to see him avoid going to a 3-2 count on the first two batters.

 

 

 

[Dman]

1 hour ago, Squirrel said:

Well, you weren’t the only one … I was someone advocating to trade him after 2019 for pitching … thought it would be a ‘sell high’ deal … glad I’m not in charge 

Yep count me in that camp too.  I was ready to trade him this year for starting pitching.  Like Chief I just felt his lack of speed and power would catch up to him but I was wrong, very wrong. 

I think this is the healthiest Louis has been in a while and when healthy I think he always has done very well. Also putting him in more righty lefty matchups isn't hurting his stats either but if he starts adding power to his game with his eye at the plate his OBP could sky rocket. 

Happy to see him doing well as his consistent bat has been big this year.

[rwilfong86]

Luis Arraez will be a household name by the end of this season. 

[mikelink45]

This rest planning is getting to me.  Sorry.  I remember players who played every game, but old is old.  Still why would you rest two of your best on the same day. Chi Chi does not belong on the roster - a DFA is okay.  Arraez is and has been my favorite player.  Yes base hits count and contact counts.  I love his game.  (I know I am gushing).  

The Twins may have hit their tipping point during these series - time to start thinking about post season (just kidding).

[rwilfong86]

2 hours ago, LastOnePicked said:

At least 5-4 through the nine game gauntlet? The Twins are legit. Not great, not perfect, but legit contenders for the AL Central, and maybe more. Great win today.

Chicago and Cleveland both blew leads today so out gap is 4 games again. Hopefully we can build that lead before the All Star break. They've showed they can hit with the big boys, hopefully they can make a move and get some bullpen help and maybe add another starter. I

[rwilfong86]

2 hours ago, BH67 said:

How many grand slams have the Twins hit this year?  I read some place that the most they've had in a season is 8.

3-7 vs. the Tigers and Royals, followed by 5-3 against the top three in the AL East.  Whatever works...

Also, of all MLB players currently eligible for the batting title, 23 of the top 25 in OPS have at least 20 extra-base hits so far this season -- the exceptions are Giancarlo Stanton (16) and Luis Arraez (8).

4 that I can remember: Gary, Royce, Kep, and now Luis

[PNW twins]

I was in the camp of trading Arraez.  I was worried about his knee issues being called chronic . As us PNW'ers know,  there's only one thing you want called chronic. 

He may still have issues with the kneein the future, but I say ride him out.  He's too fun to root for, I think almost everybody loves him.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

50 minutes ago, BH67 said:

I'm imagining the following primary lineup: Arraez, Buxton, Correa, Kepler, Polanco, Miranda, Sanchez, Urshela, Lewis.  Not possible due to Royce's ACL tear, but that is pretty tantalizing to consider.  

Since Lewis can't be in your lineup, maybe the OF who is hitting .344 could find a place in it.

[Rosterman]

The Twins starting eight of Sanchez, Arraez, Polanco, Correa, Urshela, Kepler, Buxton, larnach.

A solid bench of Jeffers, Miranda, Gordon, Celestino and soon another when pitching staffs go down to 13 arms. Who will that be? Kirilloff?

ANytime you rest a lineup guy with a bench bat, that "rest" guy should DH, for the msot part. Of course, not adverse to getting Miranda more at bats as he is hot. So we have a guy to sub for each outfielder. Someone to sub for each infielder and an outfielder. And someone to give the catcher a rest.

The offense is looking pretty good right now. Stay healthy and play.

Hey, looking over the bullpen usage chart, looks like Duffey is good to go in relief of Sands on Sunday. Do we consider the game a loss yet? Let's put our best boys on the field and win it with power.

Saturday's game against the Rays showed what happens when you run the bases badly, or leave base stealing up to the runners. What do the base coaches do?

Chi Chi, we knew you ell. Wished you had gotten the full five and could've got a "W" in your Twins account. But, alas......

 

[USAFChief]

1 hour ago, Riverbrian said:

That jack cleared the fence by plenty.

He was pretty young when he hit our shores and power can increase with age.

I think the power is there if he chooses to take that approach. I'm just not so sure he should the way he looks right now. 

I'd also like to add that Max Kepler is looking good with this new found ability to go the other way. 

Yeah, but...

Arraez has 8 XBH's this season. 8.

Today's slam notwithstanding, I think it's fair to say he has little to no power.

That lifetime .386 OBP is starting to appear legit to me though. And the current .446 is positively dreamy.

[Riverbrian]

1 minute ago, USAFChief said:

Yeah, but...

Arraez has 8 XBH's this season. 8.

Today's slam notwithstanding, I think it's fair to say he has little to no power.

That lifetime .386 OBP is starting to appear legit to me though. And the current .446 is positively dreamy.

No doubt. The numbers clearly support what you are saying.

His hitting style seems to be tailored for line drives finding the green in front of the OF instead of over the OF. If he took a different approach... it's possible that some power would show itself. That ball was jacked a long ways. 

Going with what works... making a hitting choice possibly?

Luis Arraez could be Peter Cetera. 

Peter had the power to rock out home runs like "25 or 6 to 4" but he chose hit after hit like "Glory of Love" and "Hard to say I'm Sorry" instead. 

I don't know... but I'd check the dugout for David Foster hanging around influencing him.