Is Austin Martin Minnesota’s Best Trade Chip?

[Major League Ready]

19 hours ago, Unwinder said:

He's not the most valuable trade chip, he's just the best balance between value and expendability.

Very well put.  I would hate to lose Arraez but Steer would make a great replacement IF the return was right.  Steer is no Wander Franco but the Rays moving Adames is somewhat parallel.  It's a great problem.  By that I mean having Kirilloff  / Polanco / Lewis and Miranda as our future infield with Steer waiting in the wings and Arraez and Gordon on the bench.  Gordon might seem like the logical choice to be moved.  However, that skillset fits well on this team and the others have trade value that could be impactful.  The point being trading one of Miranda / Kirilloff / Ster or Arraez will have more value than keeping them all if the right trade presents itself.

BTW ... The Rays got a SP and a RP that combined are definitely more valuable than Adames.  They were both already at the MLB level and both have really stepped up this year.   

[Major League Ready]

12 hours ago, ashbury said:

Two position players for a starting pitcher of any stature?  Do teams make such trades anymore?  Pitching is the coin of the realm.

Have to agree.  Montas or Castillo will require a very good SP prospect.  What do you think they would ask?  Winder or Ryan plus Steer or SWR plus Lewis?  Duran  / Steer?

[TwinsDr2021]

29 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

Have to agree.  Montas or Castillo will require a very good SP prospect.  What do you think they would ask?  Winder or Ryan plus Steer or SWR plus Lewis?  Duran  / Steer?

I think for sure they ask for the players you mentioned and maybe more. I wouldn't include Ryan in a trade for either, I wouldn't want to include Winder either, but might if the other players are lowered ranked than Duran/Steer/Martin.

Would the Twins be willing to part with Ober? of the three major league starters he would be the one I would be most willing to part with, I just don't see him staying healthy. (But other teams may feel the same),

Going with the Median - The trade simulator loves Ryan (32.2) and Lewis (33.2) (and Kepler(30.5) for that matter), but ober, Winder and Balazovic are 15.8, 17.6, 15.

Based on that it would take two of them plus another top prospect, or one of them and Martin plus another prospect. All seems like overpaying and too much prospect capital.

[Old Twins Cap]

Kepler is best chip.  Affordable, experienced, fast runner and a good defender, and having a pretty good year.  One of Kiriloff or Lanach can equal or exceed Max's production at a fraction of his cost.

If Twins retool around Correa, then you trade Polanco, who is a very valuable player.  Bring up Steer or put Arraez in his place.  And you have Gordon in the background.

Twins won't win it this year;  they may not even make the playoffs.  The value of pitching is immense and they just don't have enough quality arms as the Yankee series shows.

[Karbo]

20 hours ago, Deadfan said:

...You better not be referring to Kyle Gibson.

 

 

Gibson is with Phily

[Karbo]

I think their biggest need is in the bullpen

[Doctor Gast]

9 hours ago, dxpavelka said:

Flexibility being code for minus defender at multiple positions. 

Flexibility like Chris Taylor not Luiz Arraez, provides decent depth at multiple positions

[Trov]

20 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Martin's value has tanked pretty hard by this point. Martin continues to show virtually no power so his plate value is quite limited and his inability to field are well documented. That's not to say he won't put it together, but he's not exactly young at this point. Age 23 at AA is expected, even a little older than expected for a top prospect.

Scouts have universally panned Martin's ability to cover SS and CF. Those were always pie in the sky positions for Martin who supposedly lacks the outright speed to cover center and lacks the arm to cover SS. Ultimately, he's projected as a 2B candidate because of the arm.

I'm going to assume "best" in this article is not synonymous with "highest value." I think the best trade chip is Luis Arraez or Jorge Polanco. Maybe Trevor Larnach if opposing teams buy the fast start again this year or Max Kepler. Positions where we have some depth or log-jamming in effect and players with a lot of surplus value.

Please site your source for his lack of speed to cover CF?  His throwing has been in question, but I have not read anything to suggests he lacks speed to cover CF.  He clearly has speed with 21 stolen bases this year already, and baseball reference has his range factor, which is outs plus assists/ 9 innings at a high level.  Maybe it is just good positioning, but Buxton is current active leader, and 16th on all time list, at 2.714.  Martin in minors so far is 2.34 in CF.  This on par with Kevin Pillar, who is 6th on current active list.  This year in very small sample size he is 3.49, but in only 6 games so would regress most likely.  For comparison Gilberto Celestino has a career minor league mark at 2.20 in CF.  

The point is, his early numbers show he may not be elite at defending CF, but could most likely could hold it down. It is possible his numbers are just small sample size compared to guys who spent every game in CF or mostly, but please provide your source for fact Martin lacks the speed to play CF. 

[Cap'n Piranha]

17 hours ago, roger said:

We would be selling low.  Will Martin become a star, don’t know but expect the Twins remain higher on him than most here.

Also will be surprised if they do as big of a deal as most h.ere want.  I like our starting staff,  assuming most get healthy... and stay healthy.  What I do think we need is one more solid late inning guy.  A rental may not be all that expensive a month from now.

Maybe we're selling low.  Or maybe we're not.  That is the gamble that might need to be taken.

[Bigfork Twins Guy]

He needs to be afforded more time.  I see him as a 2B replacement for Polanco down the road.  That said, the Twins need to definitely trade some prospect capital or risk losing them for nothing in the Rule 5 draft.

[twinstalker]

Is Austin Martin the Twins' best trade chip?

If "best trade chip" means crappiest player you've heard of, then yes.  If you think other teams would take him as the major part of a trade, you're dreaming.  That's what the Twins did.  They didn't do their homework, and now there's no hiding how bad he is. 

[bean5302]

4 hours ago, Trov said:

Please site your source for his lack of speed to cover CF?  His throwing has been in question, but I have not read anything to suggests he lacks speed to cover CF.  He clearly has speed with 21 stolen bases this year already, and baseball reference has his range factor, which is outs plus assists/ 9 innings at a high level.  Maybe it is just good positioning, but Buxton is current active leader, and 16th on all time list, at 2.714.  Martin in minors so far is 2.34 in CF.  This on par with Kevin Pillar, who is 6th on current active list.  This year in very small sample size he is 3.49, but in only 6 games so would regress most likely.  For comparison Gilberto Celestino has a career minor league mark at 2.20 in CF.  

The point is, his early numbers show he may not be elite at defending CF, but could most likely could hold it down. It is possible his numbers are just small sample size compared to guys who spent every game in CF or mostly, but please provide your source for fact Martin lacks the speed to play CF. 

Martin routinely grades out at 50-55 speed in scouting reports and that's awfully fringey for CF. A good center fielder should be 60+ speed (plus speed). Most scouting reports indicate it's possible he could handle center field if his instincts can compensate for his physical limitations. Honestly, though I remember reading about scouts universally expecting Martin to be a best fit at 2B due to his lack of range and arm, I just can't find anything to support it. Here's what I can say...

I don't agree with using career MiLB numbers in all cases because it can be so apples vs. oranges at different ages, experience levels, and even league trends. Martin doesn't have much sample size in CF and this years' absurd 3.49 number is screwing up his career numbers. It's not a question of "most likely" regression. It's absolute colossal and guaranteed regression. It's more valuable to look at the sample sizes which are... insufficient, but at least reasonable in AA.

If we were to compare Celestino (who is fringey as a CF when it comes to range), they do grade out similarly.

In AA, Martin has a 2.34 RF/9 in Center Field across 435 innings in AA, but prior to the broken 3.49 this year 2.20ish)
In AA, Buxton had a 3.44 RF/9 in a similar number of innings as Martin has at AA.
In AA, Celestino has a 2.28ish RF/9 in AA

Looking across the league Martin is playing in...
Connor Lein (a25)= 2.65ish in AA
JP Martinez (a26) = 2.25ish in AA (Frisco Roughriders)
Max Schuemann (a25) = 2.60ish in AA (Midland Rockhounds)
Cade Marlowe (a25) = 2.37 in AA (Arkansas Travelers)
Nick Loftin (a23) = 2.32 in AA (Northwest Arkansas Naturals)
Esteury Ruiz (a23) = 2.54 in AA (San Antonio Missions)

Okay, I'm done with that. It's super time consuming. The bottom line is Austin Martin grades out as one of the worst fielders, if not the worst fielding CF in his league in AA. His grade is similar to Celestino, who is also fringey in CF. Martin does not possess a great arm or reported bonefide plus speed or supposedly a great first step. When compared to his CF peers in his league, he probably grades out at the very bottom. Could Martin play CF? Sure. Ron Gardenhire started Chris Parmelee in CF one game. It's just that Martin is going to have to make up for his defensive limitations in CF with his bat... i.e. he's not a good fit in CF. At least not in my opinion.

[jorgenswest]

There are a lot of words about range factor here. I am not sure I understand how it is helpful.

It is really hard to parse out opportunities to go with the put outs. It is really hard to parse out the difficulty. There are so many factors that skew this data that I don’t see how it can have any meaning.

Even if it does have meaning I think center field is a new position for Martin. You would expect struggle with the possibility of significant improvement. By my eye I see that improvement in Gordon as he gains experience.

Martin is a AA player with what reports to be a high end skill of commanding the strike zone. We have seen teams like the Yankees and Astros that really value that skill. It is also appears they are pushing the limits of the defensive spectrum as well as trying to make some changes to unleash more power. Both of those changes take time. They will result in errors and some poor at bats. I would give it time to try to maximize his talents. Let’s see where he is at the end of the year.

[bean5302]

9 hours ago, jorgenswest said:

There are a lot of words about range factor here. I am not sure I understand how it is helpful.

It is really hard to parse out opportunities to go with the put outs. It is really hard to parse out the difficulty. There are so many factors that skew this data that I don’t see how it can have any meaning.

Even if it does have meaning I think center field is a new position for Martin. You would expect struggle with the possibility of significant improvement. By my eye I see that improvement in Gordon as he gains experience.

Martin is a AA player with what reports to be a high end skill of commanding the strike zone. We have seen teams like the Yankees and Astros that really value that skill. It is also appears they are pushing the limits of the defensive spectrum as well as trying to make some changes to unleash more power. Both of those changes take time. They will result in errors and some poor at bats. I would give it time to try to maximize his talents. Let’s see where he is at the end of the year.

RF/9 is the best I think we have to work with for defensive value in the minors and the RF/9 coincides with Martin not being as fast as most center fielders or having a plus arm.

The idea behind RF is (x) number of balls are hit to center field so the putouts for center fielders should be the same. As I noted, using MiLB general numbers is problematic as different leagues tend to play very differently (pitcher friendly, batter friendly, experience level, etc). That's why I'm comparing Martin's performance in the very same league as the other center fielders.

Center field was Martin's second most played position at Vanderbilt, where he also played some left field. It's not a foreign position (unlike SS, which he's trying and failing to handle).

[jorgenswest]

7 hours ago, bean5302 said:

RF/9 is the best I think we have to work with for defensive value in the minors and the RF/9 coincides with Martin not being as fast as most center fielders or having a plus arm.

The idea behind RF is (x) number of balls are hit to center field so the putouts for center fielders should be the same. As I noted, using MiLB general numbers is problematic as different leagues tend to play very differently (pitcher friendly, batter friendly, experience level, etc). That's why I'm comparing Martin's performance in the very same league as the other center fielders.

Center field was Martin's second most played position at Vanderbilt, where he also played some left field. It's not a foreign position (unlike SS, which he's trying and failing to handle).

We really have nothing to work with. It may take years for range factor to stabilize at the major league level. Bill James reintroduced it in 1976. He lists many problems. Among them are opportunities are not counted, outfields are sized differently, teams don’t see the same number of balls in play(due to strike outs), staffs that throw more ground balls and it doesn’t take into account the overall defensive skill of the team. Every player shares from the same pie. Team range factor is going to be about the same for every team and we know each team can’t be equally skilled defensively.

[dxpavelka]

On 6/10/2022 at 9:48 AM, Doctor Gast said:

Flexibility like Chris Taylor not Luiz Arraez, provides decent depth at multiple positions

So far, defensively, he's more Arraez than Taylor.

 

[bean5302]

11 hours ago, jorgenswest said:

We really have nothing to work with. It may take years for range factor to stabilize at the major league level. Bill James reintroduced it in 1976. He lists many problems. Among them are opportunities are not counted, outfields are sized differently, teams don’t see the same number of balls in play(due to strike outs), staffs that throw more ground balls and it doesn’t take into account the overall defensive skill of the team. Every player shares from the same pie. Team range factor is going to be about the same for every team and we know each team can’t be equally skilled defensively.

Range Factor is what we've got. If you have something better, I'd be happy to know about it.

[jorgenswest]

49 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Range Factor is what we've got. If you have something better, I'd be happy to know about it.

We have nothing other than any of us who can watch routinely or read reports of those who watch routinely.