Twins Playing for What May Happen

[Ted Schwerzler]

In game one against the New York Yankees this season the Minnesota Twins had gone back and forth with a foe so dominant of them it’s been comical. In the 7th inning another ugly moment reared its head and manager Rocco Baldelli was forced to defend a decision made on his reliever Tyler Duffey.

 

Following a big answer from second baseman Jorge Polanco in the bottom of the 5th inning, Minnesota was trailing by just a single run. After Juan Minaya and Yennier Cano bridged the game to that point, Tyler Duffey was tasked with facing Jose Trevino, Joey Gallo, and D.J. LeMahieu in the 7th inning. To set the stage, all of Minnesota’s best relievers including Jhoan Duran, Joe Smith, and Emilio Pagan were available and rested. Tyler Duffey has arguably been the worst of the group in the bullpen this season, and issued a single and a walk before Anthony Rizzo stepped in.

Despite having two outs in the inning, Duffey appeared shaky. He nibbled around Gallo, and put LeMahieu on second with a wild pitch. Then he intentionally walked Judge after getting to a three-ball count. If there was a point to second guess the move to give him the inning, this was it, but it also goes against everything Minnesota has practiced in recent seasons.

Asked following the game by MLB.com’s Do-Young Park, Rocco Baldelli explained that trailing in the middle innings just simply isn’t a leverage situation by Minnesota’s standards. He said, “We play a lot of close ballgames. It feels like we’re in close ballgames most games in those spots. If we treat games where we’re down as if we’re up, then when we are up we’re not going to have the pitchers that we really want setup to throw in those games. It doesn’t always feel satisfying at times and that’s fine. But we have guys like Duran and Pagan who've thrown late in a lot of games and Joe Smith, those guys have pitched mainly in games where we’re winning and we want them to be available and ready to finish ballgames when the time comes.”

Deep breath, exhale, Duffey serves up a three-run shot to Anthony Rizzo effectively ending any chance for Minnesota to mount a comeback. The opportunity to win never presented itself as the opportunity not to lose wasn’t capitalized on.

There’s room for debate as to what should have happened, but the question becomes, what should the process be going forward? Minnesota plays a lot of consistently evident situations analytically. In regards to the bullpen, as Baldelli stated, their horses don’t pitch without a lead to protect. On the infield dirt, it’s routine to see the fielders play in, even early in a game, to cut down a run at the plate. Platoon advantages throughout the lineup are present often. It’s not to say this organization and team is run by a computer, but rather that data drives many decisions with the understanding that numbers normalize over time.

Unfortunately for Baldelli, and we’ve seen this in previous years as well, sometimes the decision comes down to a 50/50 coin flip on which he is consistently seeing the wrong side of.

With regards to this specific situation, the bullpen, there’s two competing thought processes at play for Minnesota. The Twins have next to no reliable middle relief help right now. Minaya was DFA’d following the Yankees loss, and Cano has been erratic at best. Duffey isn’t close to what he was a couple of years ago, and Caleb Thielbar hasn’t seen the results that his advanced metrics are there. Whether leading or not, Minnesota has nearly no one to turn to when looking for a bridge to the back of the pen.

On the flip side, while playing close games with a lineup capable of damage, it’s worth wondering how often a hypothetical opportunity never presents itself because the gap is widened. Had one of the horses entered in the 7th inning down by a run and slammed the door, what kind of momentum is generated to recoup the single run and take a lead. Without that process ever being explored, it’s hard to suggest a definitive answer.

Ultimately the Twins are strapped in relief. On a nightly basis they don’t have a bullpen that can make up for starters going just five innings or less. Winning or losing, Duran, Smith, and Pagan can’t be expected to lock down three innings something like five times per week. There has to be help brought in, both for the rotation and bullpen, but it may also be time Baldelli and Wes Johnson consider protecting the opportunity in front of them rather than just the potential one they may never see.

Share your thoughts below. How would you handle pitching from behind in a close game?

 

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[Trov]

In a 162 game season you do need to worry about the following games.  If this was a best of 3, 5, or 7 series, yeah you do not worry about the next game if you can win the one you are in.  You worry about tomorrow, tomorrow.  However, in a 162 game season, you know we will play tomorrow.  As pointed out you cannot ride the same 3 guys every game and need innings out of others.  Even if that results in a loss sometimes.  Yes, you can complain, but where will we be later in the year if all our end of pen guys are burnt out with arm injuries because we used them over and over in every close game early in season?  

[RJA]

I often question Rocco's game management skills, but frankly the bullpen does not give him a lot of options, especially when the starter can't get to five innings.  With Paddack, Gray, Ober, Maeda, Dobnak, and Ryan all out of action, the starting pitching is in shambles, and that puts pressure on the bullpen which is also short handed with Stashak, Alcala, Coulombe, and WInder all out, and, therefore, not uber-talented.  If you go Duran in the 7th, then what do you do in the 8th and 9th?  I have very little faith in Pagan, so that leaves Smith or Duffey for the 8th and Pagan for the 9th.  If the Twins can stay relevant until they get some players back on the field, that would be an accomplishment given the injuries.  

[FritzDahmus]

I think we are blaming Rocco for something Duffy did....and has a propensity for.....at least lately. The other relievers [Minaya and Cano] have also looked terrible...but survived and handed Duffey a one run deficit. He freaked out. We all could see him unravel. Why?? Then he flops in another lazy curveball....

Fix the man. I think it's obvious now. It's Rocco's fault the next time. But now, we all should blame Duffey.   

The Yankees get what the Yankees want. Yankees 110-38 and counting.

 

[PopRiveter]

I didn't hate bringing Duffey in as much as most fans seemed to hate it, but it sure went poorly. I just have more residual confidence in Duffey than his 2022 results have earned. My peers proved more right than me.

Beyond that, I believe it is foolish to apply the same game management theory when squaring off against the elite teams (like the repugnant Yankees) that you apply when squaring off against lesser competition (like the lowly Royals.)

Yesterday's score was within striking distance and looking back, I think it would have been wisest to go full-steam ahead, guns a-blazin'. We maynot find that favorable a situation for the rest of this series.

Did they pre-emptively decide to reserve the top bullpen options because Cole Sands was assigned to start? Is it really a better strategy to not use your best pitchers?

I don't like it, but I still hope they vanquish the foes tonight.

Go Chris Archer!

[RpR]

5 minutes ago, PopRiveter said:

I didn't hate bringing Duffey in as much as most fans seemed to hate it, but it sure went poorly. I just have more residual confidence in Duffey than his 2022 results have earned. My peers proved more right than me.

Beyond that, I believe it is foolish to apply the same game management theory when squaring off against the elite teams (like the repugnant Yankees) that you apply when squaring off against lesser competition (like the lowly Royals.)

 

The lowly Royals (and Tigers) are lowly only if  losing to them does not count.

[Rosterman]

In the big leagues, you have to be capable of challenging the hitter...on every team. You can nibble all you want, but the othegr team will wait you out if they see you don't have total command.

[h2oface]

Sands followed by Archer and Bundy. Yikes. 

[In My La Z boy]

Great topic. It feels like we are always saving ourselves for something. Sure hope we are in it in September - we should be the most rested and healthiest team in the league. We must be counting pitches thrown in the bullpen. Rocco never seems to have someone getting ready. Hard to match up with a team like NY, especially when they've had 52 out of 55 games started by their original starting 5 out of spring training. Not sure what to make of all the time missed by starters this year unrelated to their arm's? Pec's, groin's, hamstrings, covid. What is going on in the training room in Minnesota?

[blindeke]

"Unfortunately for Baldelli, and we’ve seen this in previous years as well, sometimes the decision comes down to a 50/50 coin flip on which he is consistently seeing the wrong side of."

Is that even true? It seems like the bullpen under Rocco has been outperforming expectations, even last year. 

[ToddlerHarmon]

I can see keeping one of the late inning arms in reserve, but *three*?

[Dantes929]

Still waiting for the rotation of Ryan, Gray, Winder, Schmeltzer and Archer or Ober but I look at the near future and don't see any of those guys but Archer penciled in.       

[jorgenswest]

If Arraez makes the play on the ball that rolled just under his glove and Duffey has a clean inning do you write the same article?

Another thing that I wonder about is the 50/50. You never get to see the other side of the coin and the decision they didn’t make. Really Baldelli can only fail. Even in the game where he pulled Smeltzer after 4 and Cotton had a clean inning it is seen as a failure. We don’t get to see the side of the coin where Smeltzer pitches that inning and sees the top of the lineup the third time. We don’t have any idea how many failures have been avoided.

Baldelli will continue to fail in hindsight if he only has one reliable option in the pen. When they need to get through 5 or 6 innings with this bullpen somebody is going to fail and Baldelli will have made the wrong decision. If Arraez gets that ball then it is about Megill instead or maybe Pagán.

The problem is not fixed with the subtraction if Duffey. The only solution to this problem is one of addition and not subtraction. With a few good additions Baldelli’s decision making will improve.

[rv78]

Not sure I completely agree with everyone. I watched the game until Dudfey served up his gopher ball to Rizzo. According to Bremer the Twins had Thielbar warming up before Rocco even went to Dudfey. With all of the analytics that Rocco is so well known for using, why did he not bring in Thielbar who is a lefty to face the lefty Rizzo? Especially when Dudfey was showing he was clearly struggling. Using Thielbar for 1 batter would not have hand-tied him against using him again the next game. Either way Rocco was wrong. Analytically (lefty verses lefty) and in "game management" as he watched Dudfey struggle ..... again. Call it a 50/50 coin flip if you want but there is a reason why Rocco is usually wrong more often that he is right. He's a poor manager. 

[Riverbrian]

47 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

If Arraez makes the play on the ball that rolled just under his glove and Duffey has a clean inning do you write the same article?

Another thing that I wonder about is the 50/50. You never get to see the other side of the coin and the decision they didn’t make. Really Baldelli can only fail. Even in the game where he pulled Smeltzer after 4 and Cotton had a clean inning it is seen as a failure. We don’t get to see the side of the coin where Smeltzer pitches that inning and sees the top of the lineup the third time. We don’t have any idea how many failures have been avoided.

Baldelli will continue to fail in hindsight if he only has one reliable option in the pen. When they need to get through 5 or 6 innings with this bullpen somebody is going to fail and Baldelli will have made the wrong decision. If Arraez gets that ball then it is about Megill instead or maybe Pagán.

The problem is not fixed with the subtraction if Duffey. The only solution to this problem is one of addition and not subtraction. With a few good additions Baldelli’s decision making will improve.

[beckmt]

If you have Thielbar warming up, you might as well use him.  Unless you have decided the game is lost and you don't care.  Solution is to bring up the fireballers and cut bait with the ineffiective relievers (i.e Duffey).  Minaya seems better the Duffey right now and also have Moran up,  There are ways to handle this, you just can't have feelings.  

[Aerodeliria]

This strategy can be discussed ad nauseam regarding one series; however, what exacerbates the problem IMHO is consistently going to the bullpen even when a starter is looking good. If the relief core is expected to pitch 6-7 innings per outing, that naturally puts Baldelli in this situation.

Also, do you think Duffey hearing Baldelli say, "Well, we're only going to our quality relief core when we have a better chance to win," helps boost Duffey's confidence? Baldelli threw him under the bus! (Even Tom Kelly was more subtle than that.)

[old nurse]

If Duffey doesn’t give up any runs the Twins still lose. There are a lot of ifs for the outcome of the game to have been any different

[singlesoverwalks]

What gets me is this: if you have a shaky bullpen, you should let your starters go deeper into games.

[singlesoverwalks]

5 hours ago, rv78 said:

Not sure I completely agree with everyone. I watched the game until Dudfey served up his gopher ball to Rizzo. According to Bremer the Twins had Thielbar warming up before Rocco even went to Dudfey. With all of the analytics that Rocco is so well known for using, why did he not bring in Thielbar who is a lefty to face the lefty Rizzo? Especially when Dudfey was showing he was clearly struggling. Using Thielbar for 1 batter would not have hand-tied him against using him again the next game. Either way Rocco was wrong. Analytically (lefty verses lefty) and in "game management" as he watched Dudfey struggle ..... again. Call it a 50/50 coin flip if you want but there is a reason why Rocco is usually wrong more often that he is right. He's a poor manager. 

Yes. This happens all the time. Rocco is slow to pull the trigger on the obvious move. Both Tom Kelly and Ron Garden hire would have automatically brought in Thielbar in that situation. Rocco gets analysis paralysis. The game moves too fast for him.

[miller761]

If your bullpen options are limited as our options are...why not take a chance with your SP who has better stats than most of our bullpen? 

 

[DJwessmix]

Rocco seems to let tight ballgames get away, when he could pull a guy. Bringing in Thielbar to face Rizzo, for example. Now it's a 4 run game. Many close games become 4, 5 run games when he won't pull guys, he let's them flounder trying to finish an inning. Even worse when the Twins with their firepower make it a 1 run game in the 9th. Happens too often that a rally falls short. He seemingly gives up on an inning because he doesn't wnat to break into the middle of an inning with another reliever. Cuz he's what? Worried about number of pitches? Psyches? More than often, that guy is DFA'd the next day anyway, glad you were "nice" to him.

[rv78]

9 hours ago, Aerodeliria said:

This strategy can be discussed ad nauseam regarding one series; however, what exacerbates the problem IMHO is consistently going to the bullpen even when a starter is looking good. If the relief core is expected to pitch 6-7 innings per outing, that naturally puts Baldelli in this situation.

Also, do you think Duffey hearing Baldelli say, "Well, we're only going to our quality relief core when we have a better chance to win," helps boost Duffey's confidence? Baldelli threw him under the bus! (Even Tom Kelly was more subtle than that.)

Most games the bullpen is being asked to pitch 4 or 5 innings, not 6 or 7. Big difference. Even so, it is still too many. The starters need to start pitching into the 6th and 7th innings much more frequently so the bullpen only needs to cover 2 or 3.. As for Rocco hurting Duffey's confidence, that's a laugher. First you have to earn the Manager's confidence in you to be used in close games. Right now, Duffey should only be used in a blowout loss and if he doesn't understand why that is, that's his problem.

[In My La Z boy]

25 minutes ago, rv78 said:

Most games the bullpen is being asked to pitch 4 or 5 innings, not 6 or 7. Big difference. Even so, it is still too many. The starters need to start pitching into the 6th and 7th innings much more frequently so the bullpen only needs to cover 2 or 3.. As for Rocco hurting Duffey's confidence, that's a laugher. First you have to earn the Manager's confidence in you to be used in close games. Right now, Duffey should only be used in a blowout loss and if he doesn't understand why that is, that's his problem.

Good example last night. Archer better be allowed to go further in another month. Pulled after 5 innings w/70 pitches is the recipe for burning up your bullpen. Thank goodness for Griffin Jax. He is the best bridge we have to the back end. Now we just need one or two more Duran's.

[jorgenswest]

8 hours ago, DJwessmix said:

Rocco seems to let tight ballgames get away, when he could pull a guy.

I think the are 66-42 in one run games since 2019.

[Aerodeliria]

1 hour ago, rv78 said:

Most games the bullpen is being asked to pitch 4 or 5 innings, not 6 or 7. Big difference. Even so, it is still too many. The starters need to start pitching into the 6th and 7th innings much more frequently so the bullpen only needs to cover 2 or 3.. As for Rocco hurting Duffey's confidence, that's a laugher. First you have to earn the Manager's confidence in you to be used in close games. Right now, Duffey should only be used in a blowout loss and if he doesn't understand why that is, that's his problem.

I meant to be a little hyperbolic but intended to say 5 or 6, but 4 or 5 is more accurate, so I say touche to you.

As for Duffey, I stand by my position. Let the Twins Daily crowd trash Duffey publicly all they want, but take care of the matter internally. 

[Whitey333]

Baldelli, in my opinion, will probably be one of the big reasons if Twins miss playoffs or if they do to get blown out in the first round.  It will be interesting to see his starting lineup tonight.  I'm worried he will use this game as another throwaway game and start a b or c lineup.  I hope he doesn't do that because we have a chance to take a series from the Yankees.  

[Karbo]

It seems that the management team is too worried about pitch counts and times thru lineups instead of how the starters are pitching. There have been more than a few times that I just can't understand why Rocco is pulling the starter. If the guy is still looking strong let him go! If your spread sheet says its time to change then get your pen warming so if the starter falters you can go get him right away instead of waiting 3 or 4 batters. ! or 2 innings means at least 1 less bullpen arm has to come in. If you lose a long or mid reliever to warmups it seems better to me than taking a chance at having him come in and get blown up in the game. 

[Dantes929]

Just read a couple of posts and I imagine the rest are more of the same.   Baledelli makes too many pitching changes while also being too slow to make pitching changes.   

[Dantes929]

12 hours ago, Aerodeliria said:

This strategy can be discussed ad nauseam regarding one series; however, what exacerbates the problem IMHO is consistently going to the bullpen even when a starter is looking good. If the relief core is expected to pitch 6-7 innings per outing, that naturally puts Baldelli in this situation.

Also, do you think Duffey hearing Baldelli say, "Well, we're only going to our quality relief core when we have a better chance to win," helps boost Duffey's confidence? Baldelli threw him under the bus! (Even Tom Kelly was more subtle than that.)

All of it is second guessing but your 2nd paragraph is on point.    I was surprised to hear him actually say what we all knew he was thinking.        It's what I was thinking also but gotta hurt for Duffey to hear that.   Maybe it will motivate him.